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The NZD/USD pair moves slightly lower to near 0.5920 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found support from an improved risk appetite, bolstering the NZD/USD pair. This positive shift follows reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as highlighted by an Iranian official's recent statement indicating no immediate plans for retaliation against Israeli airstrikes, as reported by Reuters.
However, the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair appears to be capped due to a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook for June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in the June meeting has increased to 84.4%, up from the previous week's 78.7%.
Furthermore, comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a more hawkish stance regarding the trajectory of interest rates in June, potentially strengthening the US Dollar (USD). According to a Bloomberg report, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Friday that progress on inflation had "stalled," and the Federal Reserve's current restrictive monetary policy is suitable. Additionally, Reuters reported that Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that the US central bank would abstain from cutting interest rates until the end of the year.
On Tuesday, the China Securities Journal suggested the possibility of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) lowering the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on May 15 to reduce funding costs. Given the strong trade relationship between China and New Zealand, such a move could potentially impact New Zealand's market and consequently affect the Kiwi Dollar.
Market participants will likely monitor New Zealand's monthly Trade Balance NZD data for March on Wednesday, followed by ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence on Friday. In the United States (US), attention will be on the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Tuesday, with expectations of improvements in both the manufacturing and services sectors for April.
The NZD/USD pair advanced to 0.5920 on Monday, reflecting a gain of 0.47%. Overall, the bearish force remains strong, while the bulls begin to give signs of potential recovery, highlighting the start of a possible bullish reversal.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, indicating an ongoing bearish momentum. Although there is a minor upward trend, it remains short of breaking into the positive zone. The decreasing red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest a slide in negative momentum, indicating possible signs of a potential bullish reversal.
On the hourly chart, a similar condition prevails. The RSI has been oscillating in the positive territory for most of the session, but recently recorded a slight downward inclination, signaling a potential pullback. The MACD histogram also shows rising green bars, indicating a surge in positive momentum.
The broader market perspective reveals much regarding the NZD/USD's performance versus its Simple Moving Average (SMA). With the pair being below the 20,100 and 200-day SMA, a long and short-term downward pressure on the currency is evident.
In summary, there is a bearish dominance in the market, reinforced by both the RSI and MACD trends on the daily and hourly charts, as well as the SMA positioning. However, the slight increase in the daily RSI and the diminishing bearish momentum in the MACD could signify the early stages of a market reversal.
The NZD/USD pair holds onto gains around 0.5900 in Monday’s early American session. The Kiwi asset clings to gains as ebbing risks of widening Middle East conflict has improved demand for Asian currencies.
The market sentiment turns upbeat after Iran said they are not planning any immediate retaliation to the limited attack of Israel on Isfahan. No further escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel has dented bullions' demand.
The S&P 500 opens on a positive note, exhibiting improved risk appetite among market participants. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to 4.64% as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers argue that the current restrictive monetary policy framework is appropriate given strong labor demand and stubbornly higher price pressures.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumps to 106.30 as the strong United States economic outlook due to robust consumer spending and tight labor market conditions have made Fed policymakers comfortable with interest rates remaining at their current levels.
Last week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the progress in inflation declining towards the 2% target will be slower than expected, and conditions for rate cuts won’t be favorable for the central bank towards the end of the year. Bostic added he is comfortable being patient and not madly rushing for rate cuts because labor demand is robust and wage growth remains resilient.
European FX is underperforming against the US Dollar due to expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will pivot to rate cutes earlier than the Fed. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are expected to reduce interest rates later than the Fed. Traders are pricing in the November meeting when the RBNZ will start lowering borrowing rates, and no rate cuts are expected by the RBA this year.
NZD/USD snaps its two-day losing streak, trading around 0.5910 during the European session on Monday. The recent break below the symmetrical channel on April 15 on the daily chart denotes a bearish sentiment.
Furthermore, analysis of the lagging indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a prevailing downward trend for the NZD/USD pair. This is evident from the MACD line's placement below the centerline and the signal line.
Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, offering further confirmation of the bearish sentiment. This could prompt traders of the NZD/USD pair to focus on the region around the significant support levels of 0.5863 and 0.5850. Should these levels be breached, traders may consider short positions, potentially driving the pair to test the psychological barrier at 0.5800, followed by the support level of 0.5772.
Alternatively, if the pair rebounds from the support level of 0.5863, it could target the lower boundary of a symmetrical pattern around 0.5933 and the key level of 0.5950. A breakthrough above these levels might encourage traders to adopt long positions, shifting the sentiment towards bullish, with a potential aim to reach the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at 0.6030.
A break above the 50-day EMA will strengthen the bullish sentiment and test the upper boundary of the symmetrical pattern around 0.6043. A breakthrough at this level could prompt the traders to go bullish and approach the resistance barrier at 0.6219.
The NZD/USD pair gains momentum near 0.5910 on Monday during the early Asian session. The recovery of the pair is bolstered by the risk-on sentiment and modest decline of the US dollar (USD). Traders await more evidence of inflation data for cues on the rates path ahead of a policy decision next week. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for March will be due on Friday.
The New Zealand inflation data last week showed that inflation has continued to fall, but remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1 to 3%. This triggered the expectation that the RBNZ might cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) from the November meeting and provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Furthermore, both Israel and Iran downplayed the possibility of escalating conflicts in the Middle East after Israel's apparently small strike on Iran, per Reuters. This development contributes to improving market sentiment and lifts riskier assets like the Kiwi.
On the other hand, Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee on Friday hinted at a longer timeline for interest rate cuts as progress on inflation had “stalled". Goolsbee further stated that Inflation has significantly dropped from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1%, but remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target. The high-for-longer US rate narrative boosts the Greenback and creates a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.
On Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce implemented a new tariff on US imports. China has imposed a 43.5% tax on imports of propionic acid from the US. This chemical is widely used in a variety of industries, including food, feed, pesticides, and medicinal applications. The NZD/USD pair drifts higher despite the renewed trade war between the US and China.
The NZD/USD pair saw a 0.25% loss on Friday’s sessing and continues exhibiting a significant bearish tendency. Both short-term and long-term outlooks suggest the prevalence of sellers, which may signal that the pair is bound for further downside.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish trend. It lies deep in negative terrain and edged near oversold territory. The escalating red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram align with this bearish stance, augmenting this downturn prediction.
On the hourly chart, the RSI also points south standing below 50 while the MACD exhibits dwindling green bars, indicative of reduced buying momentum.
From a wider viewpoint, NZD/USD presently exhibits a clear bearish trend, given its position below the Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 20, 100, and 200-day periods. However, as indicators approach oversold conditions, the pair may stage a corrective rebound which could give the buyers a chance to reclaim the 20-day SMA. In the meantime, movements below these levels would leave the trend bearish.
The NZD/USD pair turns sideways slightly below 0.5900 in Friday’s European session after recovering sharply from the crucial support of 0.5860.
The Kiwi asset rebounds as the appeal for risk-perceived currencies strengthens after economists cautioned about persistent global inflation. This has increased speculation that central banks other than the Federal Reserve (Fed) will also delay their rate-cut plans to avoid inflation getting rebound again. Initially, only the Fed was expected to begin reducing interest rates later this year due to stubbornly higher price pressures and robust labor demand.
Investors see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pivoting to rate cuts from November after NZ Q1 inflation data grew in line with estimates. Price pressures rose by 0.6% as estimated, higher than the prior reading of 0.5%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls slightly to 106.10. The near-term outlook remains strong as the Federal Reserve (Fed) sees interest rates remaining higher for long enough so that inflation could sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. Currently, traders see the Fed starting to reduce interest rates from the September meeting.
NZD/USD oscillates in a Descending Triangle chart pattern, which exhibits a sharp volatility contraction. The downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from April 12 high near 0.6000 while the horizontal support is placed from April 16 low at 0.5860.
The Kiwi asset attempts to break above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.5900.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers sharply above 40.00. However, the downside bias remains favored until the RSI breaks above 60.00.
Fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below April 16 low at 0.5860. This would drag the asset toward 8 September 2023 low at 0.5847, followed by the round-level support of 0.5900
On the flip side, a recovery move above March 18 high at 0.6100 will drive the pair toward March 12 low at 0.6135. A breach of the latter will drive the asset further to February 9 high around 0.6160.
The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5880 on Friday during the early European session. The risk-off environment amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran lifts the Greenback and weighs on NZD/USD. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher above 106.20, nearly the highest level since November 2023.
US officials revealed that Israel carried out military strikes against Iran. The officials said Israel told the Biden administration early on Thursday that an attack would be launched within the next 24 to 48 hours. Israeli officials informed the US that Iran's nuclear facilities would not be targeted, according to CNN. Investors will monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The turmoil and conflict in this region could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the US Dollar.
Apart from this, the higher possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay interest rate cuts further provides some support to the USD. Several Fed officials agreed that US inflation remains high and that the US central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory.
On the Kiwi front, data released from Statistics New Zealand showed that the nation’s inflation has continued to fall. However, it remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1 to 3%. This might convince the RBNZ to keep the interest rate high for longer, which might help the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to limit its losses.
The NZD/USD pair struggles to extend recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.5920 in Thursday’s early American session. The Kiwi asset faces pressure as the US Dollar rebounds after correcting as investors fear inflation in the United States economy will remain stubbornly higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers above 106.00 after correcting to 105.75.
The market sentiment turns risk-averse as investors worry about deepening Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 opens on a cautious note as Israel refuses to make a truce with Iran after meeting with foreign ministers of the United Kingdom and Germany. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that, “their state will do everything necessary to defend itself” reported by The Times.
10-year US Treasury yields rise sharply to 4.63% as investors hope that strong US economic outlook due to tight labor market conditions and robust consumer spending. This will keep inflation persistently higher and will allow Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers to keep interest rates higher for a longer period.
Meanwhile, traders have repriced speculation about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) 's rate cuts. The central is expected to pivot to rate cuts in November as NZ inflation grew by 0.6%, as expected in the first quarter of 2024.
NZD/USD faces selling pressure near at April 1 low near 0.5940, which turns into a resistance for the Kiwi bulls on an hourly timeframe. The near-term outlook remains bearish as the asset trades below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.5950.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops after failing to sustain above 60.00, suggesting that sellers use the pullback to build fresh shorts.
Fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below April 17 low at 0.5870. This would drag the asset toward 8 September 2023 low at 0.5847, followed by the round-level support of 0.5900
On the flip side, a recovery move above March 18 high at 0.6100 will drive the pair toward March 12 low at 0.6135. A breach of the latter will drive the asset further to February 9 high around 0.6160.
NZD/USD continues to gain ground for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5930 during the early European session on Thursday. The decline in the US Dollar (USD) contributes support for the NZD/USD pair, which could be attributed to the improved risk sentiment.
On Wednesday, the report indicated that New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has hit a nearly 3-year low, registering at 4% year-over-year in the first quarter. This situation provides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) with more flexibility to contemplate interest rate cuts. Despite acknowledging persistent inflation in specific sectors, the RBNZ opted to maintain interest rates at 5.5% during its policy meeting last week.
On the other side, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester acknowledged on Wednesday that inflation has exceeded expectations. Mester stressed that the Fed requires further assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation, as per a Reuters report.
In addition, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that recent data indicates limited progress in inflation this year, suggesting an extended period before reaching the 2% target. This statement potentially signals a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, which could provide support for the US Dollar, consequently, limiting the advance of the NZD/USD pair.
On the data side, traders await the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales from the United States (US) on Thursday, which could provide further insight into the state of the US economy and potentially impact the direction of the Greenback.
The NZD/USD stands recovered to 0.5919, it seeing 0.60% gains. The dominant sentiment remains bearish, subtly dominated by sellers due to the consistent positioning beneath key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, indicators on the daily and hourly charts seem to be recovering.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a negative sentiment as it continues an under-50 trend. Although there was a slight uptick from the recent low point seen on Monday, the RSI remains in deep in negative territory. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays falling red bars, reinforcing a weakening bearish momentum.
The hourly chart presents an interesting contrast. Here, recent RSI readings consistently float above 50, marking a positive territory. The latest reading is 57, revealing that buyers are taking the reins on the hourly scale. The MACD histogram echoes the buying momentum printing rising green bars.
Upon examining the long-term trend, it becomes apparent that the NZD/USD exhibits bearish momentum as it slots below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicators. So any movements which keeps the pair beneath these levels shouldn't be considered as a clear buying signal.
The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery to the round-level resistance of 0.5900 in Wednesday’s European session. The Kiwi asset strengthens as traders repriced bets supporting rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Investors now see the RBNZ beginning to lower borrowing rates from the November meeting instead of the October meeting. Market expectations for the RBNZ starting to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) have been significantly influenced by the expected rise in New Zealand’s Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Stats NZ showed that NZ inflation rose by 0.6% as expected, higher from 0.5% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023. The annual inflation data decelerated to 4.0% against the prior reading of 4.7%. Currently, the RBNZ has been maintaining its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5%.
A sharp improvement in market sentiment has also boosted demand for the New Zealand Dollar. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European session. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped slightly to 4.64%. The rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems stalled near 106.40 as investors had priced in that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lean towards keeping interest rates higher for a longer period.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence” reported Reuters. In this statement, the recent data is hot consumer price inflation data for March.
Currently, financial markets are anticipating that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.
The NZD/USD pair rebounds to 0.5905, bouncing off the yearly low of 0.5860 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) soon lift the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD).
The annual rate of inflation in New Zealand has continued to fall, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. Stats NZ’s consumer prices senior manager Nicola Growden said, "Price increases this quarter are the smallest since June 2021. However, they remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1 to 3 percent,”
Inflationary pressures in New Zealand eased further in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, keeping rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unlikely to happen soon. This, in turn, provides some support to the NZD.
On the USD’s front, the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell might lift the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. Fed Chair Powell stated that the US economy has not seen inflation come back to the central bank’s target, suggesting that interest rate cuts are unlikely to be seen in the near future. Investors see a nearly 67% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Furthermore, the safe-haven flows amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the Greenback and cap the upside of the NZD/USD pair. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement late Tuesday that new sanctions targeting Iran and sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Defense Ministry will be imposed in the coming days.
The NZD/USD declined towards 0.5879 on Tuesday reflecting a loss of 0.46%, despite. The pair's movements are largely influenced by the market’s adjustments of their expectations and the delay of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by year-end. Rising Treasury yields are also applying downward pressure on the pair.
On the data front, in March, Building Permits experienced a decline of 4.3%, dropping to 1.458 million, below both projected and February's figures. Housing starts also saw a significant drop of 14.7%, falling short of expectations at 1.321 million. However, industrial production for the same month rose by 0.4%, meeting expectations.
What drives the pair downwards is markets now betting on a more aggressive Fed. Following strong US data, market sentiment adjusted with expectations of an initial rate cut in September, and a 70% probability for a second cut in December. Expectations for a June rate cut have decreased to 25% from 60% the previous week. In addition, on Tuesday, Jerome Powell hinted that he sees no progress on inflation and that he considered that the monetary policy may need some additional time to work. The readjustments in expectations are also propelling US Treasury yields which also benefits the USD over the NZD.
Based on the indicators of the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair is exhibiting negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.18, indicating a negative trend and nearing the oversold territory. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is exhibiting rising red bars, confirming the negative momentum and suggesting that sellers currently dominate the market.
On the broader outlook, the NZD/USD also shows a negative trend as it trades below its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Unless buyers make a move above these levels, the bears will remain comfortable and dictate the pace of the pair.
The risk-averse sentiment on concerns about an escalation of the Middle East conflict is hammering the Kiwi this week. The NZD/USD has depreciated about 3.6% in the last few trading days and is about to test the support area at 0.5860.
The US Dollar remains firm, fuelled by rising US bond yields, with investors reassessing their Fed easing calendar. On Tuesday, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell suggested that recent data shows a lack of progress on inflation, which endorses the “higher for longer” Fed outlook.
Earlier on Tuesday, the mixed Chinese data seen on Wednesday failed to provide a significant impulse to the China-proxy Kiwi. China’s GDP accelerated to a 5.3% yearly growth in the first quarter, above expectations of a 5% reading. These figures, however, have been offset by weak consumption and industrial production data.
The focus is now on New Zealand’s Consumer Prices Index report, due later on Tuesday. Price pressures are expected to have ticked up in March, which would support the Kiwi. A negative surprise could accelerate the pair’s downtrend.
NZD/USD depreciates to near 0.5880 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, as investors turn toward the US Dollar (USD) seeking refuge amid escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s airstrike over the weekend. Additionally, traders are awaiting New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the first quarter of 2024, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Market expectations suggest a slight uptick to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared to the previous period's 0.5%.
The Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers recently engaged in a phone conversation, during which the Iranian foreign minister conveyed Iran's willingness to exercise restraint and expressed no desire to escalate the current situation further, as per Chinese state media. Additionally, China vehemently condemns and firmly opposes the recent attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, deeming it a serious breach of international law and categorizing it as 'unacceptable'.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fails to take any response from the mixed Chinese data, considering the two nations are close trading partners. China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 1.6% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024, against the previous quarter’s increase of 1.0%. GDP year-over-year rose by 5.3%, exceeding the expected 5.0% and 5.2% prior. Meanwhile, China’s Industrial Production (YoY) increased by 4.5% in March, against the market expectations of 5.4% and 7.0% prior
On the other side, the US Dollar (USD) gained strength as Retail Sales surpassed expectations, denting hopes for potential monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). March's Retail Sales (MoM) surged by 0.7%, outpacing forecasts of 0.3%. February's figure was also revised upward from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group climbed by 1.1%, marking a substantial increase from the previous 0.3%. Investors are now eyeing upcoming US housing data due on Tuesday, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Washington Forum.
The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at around 0.5903, suggesting a stronghold of the sellers in the market. The pair's tendency to trade below the short-term Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) indicates a short-term bearish outlook. However, with the oversold conditions looming, a possible reversal may not be too far off.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings have remained under a negative trend with the RSI sitting at 35, indicating a nearing oversold condition. This suggests that sellers have dominated the market in recent sessions. The negative momentum is also represented by the fresh red bar of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), suggesting a current bearish bias. However, the nearing oversold condition signals the possibility of a trend reversal.
Comparing this to the hourly chart, it is observed that the RSI values are still in the negative range and dangerously near the oversold threshold. The MACD histogram presents a flat red bar, indicating negative momentum, and essentially reaffirms the conclusion drawn from the daily charts, that the market has a prevalent selling bias, but there are signs of potential recovery.
Inspecting the broader outlook, the NZD/USD shows a negative outlook as it sits below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
In conclusion, both the daily and the hourly technical outlooks suggest a bearish bias for the NZD/USD pair. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals given the nearing oversold condition based on the RSI readings.
NZD/USD moves back and forth amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Iran attacked potential Israel military on Saturday by launching explosive drones and missiles targeting military installations in Israel. However, Israel successfully intercepted most of the incoming projectiles, according to Reuters. The NZD/USD pair consolidates around 0.5940 during the European session on Monday.
According to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) analysis, a prevailing downward sentiment is indicated for the NZD/USD pair. This is evidenced by the MACD line positioned below the centerline and the signal line, signaling a bearish trend.
Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the 50 level, providing additional confirmation of the bearish sentiment, which could prompt traders of the NZD/USD pair to navigate the region around the psychological level of 0.5900. A break below the latter could influence the NZD/USD pair to approach further support at the major level of 0.5850.
On the upside, the NZD/USD pair could find immediate resistance at the major level of 0.5950. A breakthrough above this level could lead the pair to test a strong resistance area around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5996, aligned with the psychological level of 0.6000 and 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6001.
NZD/USD rebounds from a five-month low of 0.5927 reached on Monday, hovering around 0.5950 during the Asian trading hours. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might have faced a struggle as New Zealand’s services sector fell back into contraction during March. Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) report posted a reading of 47.5 for March, as compared to 52.6 prior.
According to BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel, when today’s weak PSI activity is combined with last week’s similarly weak PMI activity, the composite reading suggests that GDP could decline by more than 2% compared to year-earlier levels. This projection is significantly weaker than what most analysts are forecasting.
Furthermore, market participants will likely closely observe a slew of key data from top trading partner China on Tuesday, including Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) readings and Retail Sales and Industrial Output for March. Traders will shift their focus to the release of New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.
On the other side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to reevaluate its monetary easing plans due to ongoing US inflation and robust macroeconomic indicators. Core US Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed on Thursday, an increase of 2.4% YoY in March. The market was expecting a rise to 2.3% from 2.1% prior.
Market participants are expected to closely watch the US Retail Sales figures due to be released on Monday. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Lorie K. Logan will participate in a panel discussion at the BoJ-IMF conference on Monday.
The NZD/USD pair reflects the ongoing dominance of sellers, declining towards the 0.5935 mark. While signs of bearish control are evident, there is a clue of bullish resilience, hinting at a neutral to bearish outlook in the short term.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains a consistent presence in the negative territory below 50, with the latest value at 38 which indicates that sellers are in command. That being said, green bars take shape on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, indicating a slowing of the bearish momentum.
In contrast, the hourly chart indicates a gradually increasing RSI with the latest reading at 47. This suggests a mild recovery of buying interest after dropping into oversold conditions earlier in the session. Moreover, the MACD histogram shows a fresh green bar, implying a positive change in the short term momentum.
With respect to the broader trend, the outlook is bearish with the pair below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, the pair is close to its 20-day average and if buyers regain additional ground and recapture it, the outlook may start to shift in favor of the bulls.
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