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I. Market focus
Relative calm prevailed in the global financial markets at the beginning of Tuesday due to the lack of important data and reports that could have a strong influence on the dynamics of currency pairs. The most significant dynamics in the morning session was a moderate strengthening of the dollar against other currencies, especially the euro. The U.S. currency corrected after several days of decline, provoked by the statement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The data on the Australian trade balance were the most important among the data released this morning. Although the data came out slightly weaker than the average forecast (AUD1.93 billion versus AUD2.18 billion expected), the overall trade balance surplus remained relatively high, so the Australian dollar practically ignored this report.
By the beginning of the European session, no new information was received regarding the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, the new round of which continues in Beijing. Earlier, the U.S. president was quite optimistic about the prospects for an agreement with China. The Chinese side was also optimistic. Talks that began yesterday should have lasted two days. The results of the meeting can become the main event not only of today but also of the week and month as a whole. According to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, are likely to reach a good settlement over immediate trade issues while agreement on structural trade issues and enforcement will be harder.
Markets continue to monitor the situation around the Brexit. According to the latest reports, vote on a Brexit deal in the British Parliament will be held on January 15. But it is possible that it will be delayed. In the morning, the media reported that representatives of the EU and the UK are negotiating on the possibility of extending Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. At the same time, the government of Great Britain assured that the country would leave the EU on March 29. As the UK parliamentary vote approaches, attention to the Brexit question will increase again, entailing an increase in the volatility in the pound.
Tuesday will not be busy with macroeconomic reports. The most significant data today will be Canadian trade balance statistics (13:30 GMT) and the U.S. survey on job openings and labor turnover (15:00 GMT).
II. The market highlights are:
The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, rose to 59.7 in December from an unrevised 57.2 in November. Economists had expected the gauge to hit 58.1. A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. Within sub-indexes, the prices index surged to 64.6 last month from 63.7 in November, while supplier deliveries gauge improved to 43.8 from 40.8 in the prior month. At the same time, the inventories indicator decreased to 52.5 in December from 55.0 in November, while the employment measure edged down to 54.0 from 54.1.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 57.6 in December, which was 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 60.7 percent. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 59.1 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. 16 of the non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December, the ISM said. According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure dropped to 59.9 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 65.2 percent. That reflected growth for the 113th consecutive month, at a slower pace in December. The employment indicator declined 2.1 percentage points to 56.3 percent and the prices index decreased 6.7 percentage points to 57.6 percent. Meanwhile, the new orders gauge edged up 0.2 percentage points to 62.7 percent last month. Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for December (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced on Tuesday that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms narrowed to AUD1.925 billion in November from a downwardly revised AUD2.013 billion surplus in October (initially a surplus of AUD2.316 billion). That was the smallest trade surplus since July. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD2.165 billion. According to the report, the exports increased 1.4 m-o-m in November, after jumping 1.1 percent m-o-m in October. Meanwhile, imports rose 1.7 percent m-o-m in November, following a 3.4 percent m-o-m surge in the prior month.
The Cabinet Office said on Tuesday that consumer confidence in Japan deteriorated slightly in December. The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index decreased to 42.7 last month from 42.9 in November. A score above 50 indicates optimism, while a score below 50 shows the lack of confidence. According to the report, perception deteriorated for employment (-0.8 points m-o-m to 45.8), overall livelihood (-0.2 points m-o-m to 40.6) and income growth (-0.1 points m-o-m to 41.7). Meanwhile, the perception on the willingness to buy durable goods improved (+0.4 points m-o-m to 42.8).
III. Market Situation
The currency pair EUR/USD dropped significantly, retreating from a high on December 20, due to the renewed strengthening of the U.S. dollar and partial profit-taking after the previous day’s rally. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of a set of the Eurozone’s data (economic sentiment index, consumer confidence index, industrial confidence index and business climate indicator) and the U.S. report on job openings and labor turnover. According to economists’ forecast, job openings increased decreased to 7.063 million in November from 7.079 million in October. Resistance level - $1.1499 (high of November 7, 2018). Support level - $1.1337 (low of January 3).
The currency pair GBP/USD traded within a narrow range, remaining near opening level. With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets, as well as Brexit-related new. The BBC reported on Monday that Prime Minister Theresa May will hold a delayed parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal on January 15. The vote was called off last month by May, who said her deal would be defeated by a large majority. May stated on Sunday that the UK would be in uncharted territory if her Brexit deal is rejected by the parliament, despite little sign that she has won over skeptical lawmakers. Resistance level - $1.2810 (high of December 6, 2018). Support level - $1.2616 (low of January 4).
The currency pair AUD/USD fell moderately amid a broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the publication of weaker-than-expected data on Australia’s trade balance. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms narrowed to AUD1.925 billion in November from a downwardly revised AUD2.013 billion surplus in October (initially a surplus of AUD2.316 billion). That was the smallest trade surplus since July. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD2.165 billion. According to the report, the exports increased 1.4 m-o-m in November, after jumping 1.1 percent m-o-m in October. Meanwhile, imports rose 1.7 percent m-o-m in November, following a 3.4 percent m-o-m surge in the prior month. Resistance level - AUD0.7203 (high of December 18 and 19, 2018). Support level - AUD0.6950 (January 3).
The currency pair USD/JPY demonstrated a slight increase, due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the release of Japan’s data, which revealed that consumer confidence index decreased to 42.7 in December from 42.9 in November. The focus was also on the statements of Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso. He noted that the government had taken sufficient measures to support the economy and a nationwide sales tax will go ahead as planned in October. Aso also said that there was no change to the government’s plan to raise the sales tax. “The measures we have taken so far should be sufficient” to increase the sales tax, he said. “I expect Japan’s recovery to continue because of the benefits of the policies we have already put in place.” Resistance level - Y111.45 (high of December 21, 2018). Support level - Y107.11 (low of January 3).
U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Monday, as the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China helped ease concerns. The focus also was on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) report on activity in the U.S. non-manufacturing sector. The ISM non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 57.6 in December, which was 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 60.7 percent. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 59.1 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, as market participants awaited the results of the latest round of the U.S.-China trade talks. Japan’s Nikkei surged as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, supporting the Japanese export-oriented companies.
European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.69% (-1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.22% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.13% (0 basis points)
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded little changed. Crude oil for delivery in February settled at $48.51 (-0.02%). The crude oil prices consolidated near the opening level, following the previous day's surge. Market participants were also awaiting data on oil inventories in the U.S. Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly data on the U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Tomorrow, the focus will be on official report on crude inventories in the U.S. from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gold traded at $1,282.90 (-0.47%). Gold prices fell moderately amid the strengthening of the U.S. currency and partial profit taking. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.20 percent to 95.86. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.
IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)
Halifax house price index
Economic sentiment index
Business climate indicator
JOLTs Job Openings
AIG Services Index
|remaining time till the new event being published|
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