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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: raw news — 12-02-2020.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories climbed by 7.459 million barrels in the week ended February 7. Economists had forecast an advance of 2.987 million barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks edged down by 0.098 million barrels, while analysts had expected a gain of 0546 million barrels. Distillate stocks declined by 2.013 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.557 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.000 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 363,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
FXStreet reports that according to strategists at TD Securities OPEC’s doubts to add production curbs alongside a possible Libyan oil production resumption might bring additional losses to crude oil.
“Hopes that we have reached 'peak coronavirus' fear is catalyzing a round of risk-on trading, which is helping crude find a floor.”
“In OPEC's view, the disruption could only amount to some 230k bpd annualized of global oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is hesitating on adding to existing production curbs given the limited disruption in Russia's domestic energy exports, with energy-time spreads sending strong signals of oversupply.”
“WTI and Brent Dec-Dec spreads are flirting with contango as the market prices in the oversupply narrative. The prospect of no OPEC+ action until the March meeting, along with a possible resumption of nearly 1m bpd of Libyan oil production should peace talks prove successful and refinery maintenance season just getting underway all suggest that crude markets could see some additional pain.”
FXStreet reports that according to strategists at TD Securities gold is sitting at $1565.75 while the context for the yellow metal is a market where traders are holding long, but not large positions.
“Gold is a crowded trade. The bull market narrative is widely acknowledged, which translates to an above-average number of traders holding a long position, although the average trader's position size is not excessive, suggesting that greed is not widespread.”
“The risk to gold bugs is a change in narrative that would prompt a decline in the number of traders long. A reversal of recent safe-haven flows driven by fears that the Wuhan coronavirus could contaminate global reflation appears to be an obvious candidate for a narrative-driven reversal."
| Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | 54.05 | 1.31 |
| WTI | 49.83 | 0.48 |
| Silver | 17.62 | -0.68 |
| Gold | 1567.551 | -0.27 |
| Palladium | 2339.22 | -0.37 |
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