CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 30-11-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +127.76 22724.96 +0.57%

TOPIX +5.93 1792.08 +0.33%

Hang Seng -446.48 29177.35 -1.51%

CSI 300 -47.65 4006.10 -1.18%

Euro Stoxx 50 -19.98 3569.93 -0.56%

FTSE 100 -66.89 7326.67 -0.90%

DAX -37.89 13023.98 -0.29%

CAC 40 -25.26 5372.79 -0.47%

DJIA +331.67 24272.35 +1.39%

S&P 500 +21.51 2647.58 +0.82%

NASDAQ +49.58 6873.97 +0.73%

S&P/TSX +99.76 16067.48 +0.62%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1902 +0,47%

GBP/USD $1,3523 +0,86%

USD/CHF Chf0,98346 -0,10%

USD/JPY Y112,52 +0,55%

EUR/JPY Y133,93 +1,01%

GBP/JPY Y152,152 +1,40%

AUD/USD $0,7566 -0,06%

NZD/USD $0,6830 -0,68%

USD/CAD C$1,28953 +0,25%

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Finally) November 53.8 53.8

01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI November 51.0 50.9

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI November 62 62.6

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) November 56.1 57.5

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) November 60.6 62.5

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) November 58.5 60

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing November 56.3 56.5

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) September -0.1% 0.1%

13:30 Canada GDP QoQ Quarter III 1.1%

13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) Quarter III 4.5% 1.6%

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate November 6.3% 6.2%

13:30 Canada Employment November 35.3 10.0

14:05 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speak

14:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

14:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) November 54.6 53.8

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m October 0.3% 0.5%

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing November 58.7 58.4

18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count December 747

20:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln November 18.09 17.6

The main stock indexes showed a steady increase, with the Dow Jones industrial index breaking through the 24,000 mark for the first time in history, amid the fact that President Donald Trump's tax cuts plan can receive sufficient support for implementation.

The focus was also on the United States. The US Department of Commerce said consumer spending rose 0.3% in October after nearly 1% growth in the previous month, which was the largest increase in eight years. The result coincided with the forecasts of economists. Personal incomes grew by 0.4% for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, the savings rate increased to 3.2% from 3%. In September, savings fell to a 10-year low. The PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation rate, rose 0.1% in October. The so-called "basic" indicator, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2%.

In addition, it became known that the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits fell last week, confirming the overall strength of the labor market. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, a gauge of layoffs in the US, fell by 2,000 to 238,000, seasonally adjusted in the week ending November 25, the Ministry of Labor said. Economists were expecting 240,000 new applications last week. The drop in appeals indicates a strong and continuing tightening of the labor market, which can contribute to the growth of wages. Employers in the US accelerated hiring in October, reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1%, which is the lowest since the early 2000s.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (24 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of United Technologies Corporation (UTX, + 2.88%). Outsider were shares of General Electric Company (GE, -1.27%).

All sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The industrial goods sector grew most (+ 1.1%).

At closing:

DJIA + 1.39% 24,272.56 +331.88

Nasdaq + 0.73% 6,873.97 +49.58

S & P + 0.82% 2,647.56 +21.49

As we on can see on 4-hour time frame chart, the attempt to form a chart pattern (Double top) was invalid once the price faoçed to break the neckline.

Besides that, we still might expect a depreciation on EUR/NZD.

Even with the double top invalidated, we can be prepared to enter short if the price forms a triple top and once it breaks the neckline we can have a nice opportunity to take short position.

U.S. stock-index futures were moderately higher on Thursday as tech stocks recovered, while investors monitored developments surrounding a U.S. tax bill and awaited the outcomes of the OPEC meeting.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,724.96 +127.76 +0.57%

Hang Seng 29,177.35 -446.48 -1.51%

Shanghai 3,317.58 -20.28 -0.61%

S&P/ASX 5,969.89 -41.22 -0.69%

FTSE 7,381.48 -12.08 -0.16%

CAC 5,411.23 +13.18 +0.24%

DAX 13,127.31 +65.44 +0.50%

Crude $57.76 (+0.80%)

Gold $1,276.00 (-0.48%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Amazon (AMZN) target raised to $1500 from $1300 at DA Davidson

Barrick Gold (ABX) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup

EUR/USD: 1.1660(415 млн), 1.1666-75(1.14 млрд), 1.1700(2.47 млрд), 1.1730(1.01 млрд), 1.1750(387 млн), 1.1770(372 млн), 1.1838-45(2.79 млрд), 1.1900-05(585 млн), 1.2000(858 млн)

USD/JPY: 111.00(987 млн), 111.75(550 млн), 112.00-05(429 млн), 112.15-20(601 млн), 112.65(385 млн)

USD/CHF: 1.0100(481 млн)

AUD/USD: 0.7500(245 млн), 0.7590-0.7600(343 млн)

NZD/USD: 0.6750(265 млн), 0.6942-50(305 млн), 0.7080(226 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2800(836 млн), 1.2850(1.38 млрд)

EUR/GBP: 0.8675(300 млн), 0.8770(251 млн), 0.8900(225 млн)

AUD/JPY: 84.48-50(290 млн)

Canada's current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) widened by $3.8 billion in the third quarter to $19.3 billion, as the deficit on international trade in goods expanded for the third quarter in a row.

In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), strong and continued foreign investment in Canadian bonds again led the inflow of funds into the economy.

In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 239,000 to 240,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 239,750 to 240,000.

Personal income increased $65.1 billion (0.4 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $66.1 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.4 billion (0.3 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

• Says there is still a chance to improve U.S. - Russia relations, U.S. business wants better ties

• U.S. politicians playing "russia card" to achieve their own aims, influence Trump

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.8% in October 2017, down from 8.9% in September 2017 and from 9.8% in October 2016. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since January 2009. The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.4% in October 2017, down from 7.5% in September 2017 and from 8.3% in October 2016. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since November 2008. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Eurostat estimates that 18.243 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 14.344 million in the euro area, were unemployed in October 2017. Compared with September 2017, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 111 000 in the EU28 and by 88 000 in the euro area. Compared with October 2016, unemployment fell by 2.074 million in the EU28 and by 1.473 million in the euro area.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.5% in November 2017, up from 1.4% in October 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (4.7%, compared with 3.0% in October), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.2%, compared with 2.3% in October), services (1.2%, stable compared with October) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with October).

EUR/USD: 1.1660(415 m), 1.1666-75(1.14 b), 1.1700(2.47 b), 1.1730(1.01 b), 1.1750(387 m), 1.1770(372 m), 1.1838-45(2.79 b), 1.1900-05(585 m), 1.2000(858 m)

USD/JPY: 111.00(987 m), 111.75(550 m), 112.00-05(429 m), 112.15-20(601 m), 112.65(385 m)

USD/CHF: 1.0100(481 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7500(245 m), 0.7590-0.7600(343 m)

NZD/USD: 0.6750(265 m), 0.6942-50(305 m), 0.7080(226 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2800(836 m), 1.2850(1.38 b)

EUR/GBP: 0.8675(300 m), 0.8770(251 m), 0.8900(225 m)

AUD/JPY: 84.48-50(290 m)

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.7% in nominal terms in October 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 3.0% in October 2017 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 1.5%.

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should rise by 1.2% in November 2017, after +1.1% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month. This rise in year-on-year inflation, the fourth in a row, should come from an acceleration in energy prices and services prices and from a lesser drop in manufactured product prices. The acceleration in tobacco prices should contribute too, but to a lesser extent. Food prices should grow at the same pace as in the previous month.

Over one month, consumer prices should rise by 0.1%, as in October. This new slight increase should result from an acceleration in energy prices, a lesser fall in services prices and an increase in tobacco prices. On the other hand, food prices should slow down, due to a downturn in fresh food prices, which sharply rebounded in the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1975 (4304)

$1.1941 (5198)

$1.1915 (4039)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1864

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1810 (1550)

$1.1778 (2867)

$1.1739 (3517)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 161539 contracts (according to data from November, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (8977);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3575 (1667)

$1.3539 (3179)

$1.3509 (2769)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3470

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3416 (577)

$1.3373 (219)

$1.3346 (404)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 53875 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3334);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 46848 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3980);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 29

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Industrial production in Japan advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in October, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry cited by rttnews.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.8 percent following the 1.0 percent decline in September.

On a yearly basis, industrial production advanced 5.9 percent - again missing forecasts for 7.1 percent but up from 2.6 percent in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production saying was that it shows signs of picking up.

• ECB to leave policy unchanged at dec 14 meeting; keep rates on hold through end-2018

Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 % in the 3rd quarter of 2017, boosted by manufacturing in particular. Many service sectors also contributed to growth, including trade, business services and healthcare. By contrast, value added fell slightly in construction and the financial sector. On the expenditure side, both domestic final demand and foreign trade underpinned GDP. Consumption, investment in equipment and net exports rose, while investment in construction dipped slightly.

• Annual house price growth stable at 2.5%

• Modest 0.1% month-on-month increase

• Limited impact from stamp duty changes

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The annual rate of house price growth remained stable in November at 2.5%. Nevertheless, annual growth remains within the 2-4% range that has prevailed since March. Low mortgage rates and healthy rates of employment growth are providing support for demand, but this is being partly offset by pressure on household incomes, which appears to be weighing on confidence. The lack of homes on the market is providing support to house prices".

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in October 2017 was in real terms 1.4 % smaller and in nominal terms 0.3 % larger than that in October 2016. The number of days open for sale was 24 in October 2017 and 25 in October 2016.

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first ten months of 2017 in real terms 2.4 % and in nominal terms 4.3 % larger than in in the corresponding period of the previous year.

European stocks closed at a nearly three-week high on Wednesday, boosted by a rally in the region's bank shares a day after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman-nominee Jerome Powell said he hopes to ease financial regulations. The U.K. stock market, however, missed out on the European bounce as the pound rallied after signs of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels.

U.S. benchmark stock indexes ended mixed on Wednesday. The Dow hit a fresh record close, whereas the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell after tech stocks came under selling pressure. So-called FAANG stocks like Apple AAPL, -2.07% , Amazon AMZN, -2.71% and Google GOOG, -2.46% shed more than 2% of their value.

The week's global decline in technology stocks continued Thursday, weighing on Asian markets. Asian chip shares fell after fresh selling in the U.S. overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.3% during a 4.4% slump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, its biggest drop of the year.