CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 30-05-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 49.65 -0.02%

Gold 1,261.70 -0.03%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -4.72 19677.85 -0.02%

TOPIX +2.46 1572.67 +0.16%

Hang Seng +62.36 25701.63 +0.24%

CSI 300 -5.23 3480.43 -0.15%

Euro Stoxx 50 -17.73 3561.22 -0.50%

FTSE 100 -21.12 7526.51 -0.28%

DAX -30.27 12598.68 -0.24%

CAC 40 -26.53 5305.94 -0.50%

DJIA -50.81 21029.47 -0.24%

S&P 500 -2.91 2412.91 -0.12%

NASDAQ -7.00 6203.19 -0.11%

S&P/TSX -49.56 15372.35 -0.32%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1179 +0,24%

GBP/USD $1,2797 -0,27%

USD/CHF Chf0,9751 -0,28%

USD/JPY Y110,84 -0,39%

EUR/JPY Y123,91 -0,15%

GBP/JPY Y141,84 -0,66%

AUD/USD $0,7460 +0,31%

NZD/USD $0,7095 +0,61%

USD/CAD C$1,3466 +0,07%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI May 51.2 51

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI May 54.0

01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence May 11.0

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y April 5.0%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m April 0.3% 0.4%

05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y April 1.1%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y April 0.2% -1.5%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted April 0.1% 0.2%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y April 2.3% 2.3%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator April 1.5

06:45 France CPI, m/m (Preliminary) May 0.1% 0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y (Preliminary) May 1.2%

07:20 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 5.8% 5.7%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May -15 -15

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals April 66.84 66.05

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln April 1624 1550

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln April 4.7 4.5

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) May 1.9% 1.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) May 1.2%

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate April 9.5% 9.4%

12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) March 0.0% 0.2%

12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) Quarter I 2.6% 3.6%

12:30 Canada GDP QoQ Quarter I 0.6%

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index May 58.3 57

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) April -0.8% 0.3%

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index May 59.2

23:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Major US stock indices decreased slightly as a result of the first trading session of this week, weighed down by the drop in energy and financial stocks.

As it became known today, consumer spending in the US recorded the largest increase in four months in April, and monthly inflation recovered, indicating the strengthening of domestic demand at the beginning of the second quarter, which may allow the Fed to raise rates in June. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending, accounting for more than two-thirds of the US economy, rose 0.4% in April after a revised increase of 0.3% in March.

In addition, the growth in house prices in March continued to accelerate, creating a problem for the market, which has already experienced slow sales due to rising prices and a shortage of stocks. The housing price index from S & P / Case-Shiller, which covers the whole country, grew by 5.8% per annum in March after an increase of 5.7% in February.

At the same time, the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which declined in April, again deteriorated in May. The index is now 117.9 (1985 = 100), compared with 119.4 in April. The current situation index slightly increased from 140.3 to 140.7, while the index of expectations fell from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May.

The cost of oil declined by about a percent, reacting to concerns that the decline in production by the world's largest exporters may not be sufficient to get rid of the global overabundance that has been observed for almost three years.

Components of the DOW index finished trading mixed (14 in negative territory, 16 in positive territory). Most fell shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, -2.43%). Leader of growth were the shares of Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, + 1.95%).

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The sector of main materials fell most of all (-0.8%). The leader of growth was the utilities sector (+ 0.3%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.25% 21,027.79 -52.49

Nasdaq -0.11% 6,203.19 -7.00

S & P -0.12% 2,412.86 -2.96

• UK Opposition Labour party on 33 pct vs 33 pct last week ahead of June 8 general election

• UK conservatives' lead at 12 pts vs 14 pts last week ahead of June 8

• Senate rule change would allow lawmakers to pass healthcare overhaul, tax reform 'fast and easy'

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May.

"Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "However, consumers' assessment of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting little change in overall economic conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less upbeat than in April, but overall remain optimistic that the economy will continue expanding into the summer months."

EURUSD: 1.1000 (EUR 685m) 1.1080 (265m) 1.1090-1.1100 (3.5bln) 1.1150 (609m) 1.1180 (300m) 1.12200-10 (860m) 1.1225 (512m) 1.1250 (200m)

USDJPY: 111.00-10 (USD 750m) 111.20-30 (977m) 113.00-10 (825m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 195m)

EURGBP: 0.8600 (591m)

USDCHF: 0.9845-50 (USD 250m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 605m) 0.7450 (565m) 0.7500 (303m) 0.7550 (540m)

USDCAD: 1.3375 (USD 252m) 1.3400 (237m) 1.3500 (425m) 1.3600 (200m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat after the three-day holiday weekend as investors assessed a report on personal income and spending for April.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,677.85 -4.72 -0.02%

Hang Seng -

Shanghai -

S&P/ASX 5,717.89 +10.81 +0.19%

FTSE 7,511.86 -35.77 -0.47%

CAC 5,297.42 -35.05 -0.66%

DAX 12,618.10 -10.85 -0.09%

Crude $49.42 (-0.76%)

Gold $1,259.20 (-0.70%)

Canada's current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) widened by $2.3 billion in the first quarter to $14.1 billion, as the goods balance moved from a surplus to a deficit.

In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), large foreign investment in Canadian corporate securities led the net inflow of funds into the economy.

The balance on international trade in goods posted a $1.8 billion deficit in the first quarter, following a $0.1 billion surplus in the previous quarter.

On a geographical basis, the goods deficit with non-US countries was up $2.3 billion, mainly reflecting higher deficits with Brazil, Netherlands, Germany and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the surplus with the United States, led by stronger exports of energy products, increased $0.5 billion in the first quarter.

Total exports of goods rose $2.2 billion to $138.5 billion in the first quarter. Energy products, led by crude petroleum, were the major contributor, with exports up $2.5 billion as prices reached their highest level since the end of 2014

The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) increased 1.6%, mainly as a result of higher prices for crude energy products.

The IPPI rose for the eighth consecutive month, up 0.6% in April following a 0.8% increase in March. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 14 were up, 3 were down and 4 were unchanged.

The growth in the IPPI was mostly attributable to higher prices for energy and petroleum products (+2.9%). The gain in this commodity group was mainly due to higher prices for motor gasoline (+5.8%), which posted its largest increase since December 2016. Higher prices for light fuel oil (+2.4%), lubricants and other petroleum refinery products (+1.9%), and asphalt (except natural) and asphalt products (+2.3%) also contributed to the increase, but to a lesser extent. The IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products rose 0.3%.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Personal income increased $58.4 billion (0.4 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $56.5 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.2 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in April and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

AT&T (T) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at MoffettNathanson

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1150 1.1180-85 1.1200 1.1230 1.1250

Bids: 1.1120 1.1100 1.1080 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2880 1.2900 1.2930 1.2950 1.2985 1.3000

Bids: 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750 1.2730 1.2700

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.00 124.30 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 123.50 123.30 123.00 122.80 122.50 122.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8685 0.8700 0.8720 0.8735 0.8750

Bids: 0.8650-55 0.8630 0.8600 0.8585 0.8550

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.20-30 111.50 111.85 112.00 112.30 112.50

Bids: 110.75-80 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7460 0.7480 0.7500 0.7530 0.7550

Bids: 0.7420 0.7400 0.7385 0.7350 0.7300

• A medium-term budget consolidation plan necessary to reduce public debt, but shouldn't hurt growth

• Greater restrictions to movement of goods and people should push EU, eurozone to increase integration

• Sees economic recovery to continue in 2017, significant risks remain

• Risks to growth include global protectionism, higher oil prices, brexit, budget restraints

We believe RBI has been reticent to intervene aggressively in the FX market because any unsterilized intervention (i.e. RBI purchases of USD without issuing bonds to soak up the liquidity injection) will only exacerbate the current excess liquidity situation due to last year's demonetization, Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.

• Germany may BW state cpi mm* decrease to -0.1 % vs prev 0.0 %

• NW state cpi mm decrease to -0.2 % vs prev 0.1 %

• BW state cpi yy decrease to 1.5 % vs prev 2.0 %

• HE state cpi mm stays flat at 0.0 % vs prev 0.0 %

• BB state cpi yy decrease to 1.4 % vs prev 1.8 %

Eurozone economic confidence weakened in May, survey results from the European Commission, cited by rttnews.

The economic confidence index declined to 109.2 in May from 109.7 in the previous month. The score was forecast to improve to 110.1.

The moderation in sentiment resulted from decreases in services and retail trade confidence, while confidence in industry, construction and among consumers remained broadly stable at high levels.

The industrial sentiment index rose to 2.8 from 2.6 a month ago. Economists had forecast the indicator to rise to 3.1.

The services confidence indicator dropped to 13.0 from 14.2 in April. Likewise, the retail trade confidence index came in at 2.0 versus 3.1 in April.

• New projects may come in oil production, transportation, refining thanks to improved cooperation with OPEC nations

• Discussed situation on global oil markets with Saudi's Falih energy ministry

EURUSD: 1.1000 (EUR 685m) 1.1080 (265m) 1.1090-1.1100 (3.5bln) 1.1150 (609m) 1.1180 (300m) 1.12200-10 (860m) 1.1225 (512m) 1.1250 (200m)

USDJPY: 111.00-10 (USD 750m) 111.20-30 (977m) 113.00-10 (825m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 195m)

EURGBP: 0.8600 (591m)

USDCHF: 0.9845-50 (USD 250m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 605m) 0.7450 (565m) 0.7500 (303m) 0.7550 (540m)

USDCAD: 1.3375 (USD 252m) 1.3400 (237m) 1.3500 (425m) 1.3600 (200m)

In May 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer stands, with its new value of 101.6 points, slightly above its long-term average. However, it did decrease substantially as compared to April. The decrease was mainly due to negative contributions by manufacturing. In addition, the indicators for the export development and for domestic consumption as well as the ones from the financial and the constructing sectors contributed negatively to the dynamics of the Barometer.

Within manufacturing, the negative outlook was mainly visible in the paper, metal and electronic industries. These negative dynamics were slightly compensated by a more positive outlook in the food industry.

In Q1 2017, GDP in volume terms rose less fast (+0.4%) than in Q4 2016 (+0.5%). Households' consumption expenditure stalled (+0.1% after +0.6%). By contrast, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated sharply (+1.2% after +0.5%). All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes barely slowed: it brought +0.4 points to GDP growth, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

Exports fell back significantly (−0.8% after +1.0%) while imports accelerated (+1.4% after +0.6%). All in all, foreign trade balance weighed down on GDP growth: −0.7 points after +0.1 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points after −0.2 points).

Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged at the lowest level since 1994 and retail sales advanced unexpectedly in April, official data cited by rttnews showed.

The jobless rate held steady at 2.8 percent in April, the lowest since June 1994, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. The rate also came in line with expectations.

The jobs-to-applicants ratio came in at 1.48 in April versus 1.45 in March. This was the highest since 1974 and marginally above the expected level of 1.46.

Meanwhile, another data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that household spending decreased 1.4 percent from a year ago compared to the forecast of 0.9 percent drop.

Building consents for new homes fell in April, partly due to the timing of Easter, Stats NZ said today.

The seasonally adjusted number of new homes consented fell 7.6 percent in April 2017 compared with March, mainly because of Easter, which occurred in April this year. This fall followed a 1.2 percent fall in March, and a 15 percent rise in February.

"Councils don't usually issue building consents on public holidays, so the timing of Easter drove a fall in April's building consents," business indicators senior manager Neil Kelly said.

A total of 2,106 new homes were consented in April 2017, compared with 2,361 in April 2016.

"On an annual basis, home consents have reached a 12-year high this year, with more than 30,000 new homes being consented per year," Mr Kelly said.

• Sees little scope for or benefit from extending the yield curve beyond 30 years

• A very small illiquid 50-year maturity wouldn't add noticeably to extending portfolio duration

• Counting on sustained demand for a new 30‑year AUD benchmark bond next year or the year after

The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in April and has risen for three months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 4.4% in April following a fall of 10.3% in the previous month.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.2% in April and has fallen for 13 months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses rose 0.5% in April following a fall of 2.7% in the previous month.

The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 0.5% in April and has risen for four months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 9.6% in April following a fall of 18.2% in the previous month.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 6.1% in April 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March 2017 and in February 2017 the annual rates of change were +6.1% and +7.4%, respectively. From March 2017 to April 2017 the index slightly fell by 0.1%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 4.4% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 2.6% in April 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March 2017 and in February 2017 the annual rates of change were +2.3% and +2.5%, respectively. From March 2017 to April 2017 the export price index rose by 0.2%.

European stocks kicked off the week in slightly negative territory on Monday, with market holidays in the U.S. and U.K. denting trading volumes.

Asia equity markets had a muted beginning to the week, with holidays set to slow activity world-wide, as investors shrugged off North Korea's latest missile launch. North Korea fired an unidentified projectile within about 320 kilometers of Japan's coastline, marking the third week in a row that it has launched a missile. "The market is quite desensitized" at this point, said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Group. Monday's launch occurred as markets in China and Taiwan are closed for holidays. Markets in the U.K. and U.S. will also be closed for holidays.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1332 (4991)

$1.1268 (5627)

$1.1226 (5558)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1128

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1095 (1732)

$1.1063 (2317)

$1.1026 (1684)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 81559 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5969);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 101770 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5492);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.25 versus 1.24 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 26

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3101 (3105)

$1.3003 (3992)

$1.2905 (2108)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2812

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2694 (2107)

$1.2597 (1611)

$1.2498 (1628)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35834 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3992);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36351 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 26

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.