CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-11-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 57.75 -0.62%

Gold 1,293.30 -0.08%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -9.75 22486.24 -0.04%

TOPIX -4.66 1772.07 -0.26%

Hang Seng -5.34 29680.85 -0.02%

CSI 300 +5.87 4055.82 +0.14%

Euro Stoxx 50 +19.47 3583.49 +0.55%

FTSE 100 +76.75 7460.65 +1.04%

DAX +59.33 13059.53 +0.46%

CAC 40 +30.39 5390.48 +0.57%

DJIA +255.93 23836.71 +1.09%

S&P 500 +25.62 2627.04 +0.98%

NASDAQ +33.84 6912.36 +0.49%

S&P/TSX -12.48 16029.64 -0.08%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1838 -0,50%

GBP/USD $1,3334 +0,13%

USD/CHF Chf0,98345 +0,21%

USD/JPY Y111,46 +0,34%

EUR/JPY Y131,96 -0,15%

GBP/JPY Y148,625 +0,48%

AUD/USD $0,7593 -0,11%

NZD/USD $0,6896 -0,21%

USD/CAD C$1,28126 +0,35%

07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October 1.56

07:45 France GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter III 0.6% 0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals October 66.23 65.00

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln October 5.5

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln October 1.606 1.500

10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Finally) November -1.1 0.1

10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator November 1.44 1.5

10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence November 7.9 8.7

10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index November 114 114.6

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) November 1.6% 1.7%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) November 0.0% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q (Revised) Quarter III 0.9% 1.3%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q (Revised) Quarter III 0.3% 1.5%

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter III 3.1% 3.2%

14:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

14:45 United Kingdom MPC Member Ramsden Speaks

15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) October 0% 1.0%

15:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November -1.855 -3.150

17:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

18:50 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m October -2.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) October -1.0% 1.9%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) October 2.6%

Major US stock indices rose significantly, reaching new record levels, as investors reacted positively to the comments of the candidate for the post of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, and ceased to worry about progress in the US tax reform.

The focus was also on the United States. As it became known, the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board grew in November after improvement in October. The index now stands at 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The index of the current situation increased from 152.0 to 153.9, while the index of expectations rose from 109.0 to 113.3.

In addition, manufacturing firms reported steady growth in business activity in November, according to a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The index of manufacturing activity jumped from 12 to 30, the highest value since 1993. This growth was reinforced by the strengthening of conditions in all three components of the index. Although indicators of current wages and finished goods declined in November, both remained at positive levels, declining from 24 to 21, and from 14 to 9, respectively.

Almost all components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (27 out of 30). Leader of the growth were shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, + 3.81%). Outsider were the shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, -0.75%).

All sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The financial sector grew the most (+ 1.4%).

At closing:

DJIA + 1.09% 23,837.74 +256.96

Nasdaq + 0.49% 6,912.36 +33.84

S & P + 0.99% 2,627.05 +25.63

U.S. stock-index futures were slightly higher on Tuesday, as investors awaited the confirmation hearing of new Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,486.24 -9.75 -0.04%

Hang Seng 29,680.85 -5.34 -0.02%

Shanghai 3,333.66 +11.43 +0.34%

S&P/ASX 5,984.25 -4.52 -0.08%

FTSE 7,439.86 +55.96 +0.76%

CAC 5,385.08 +24.99 +0.47%

DAX 13,036.63 +36.43 +0.28%

Crude $57.74 (-0.64%)

Gold $1,295.10 (+0.05%)

U.S. house prices rose 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 6.5 percent from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.3 percent from August.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA has produced a video of highlights for this quarter.

"With relatively favorable economic conditions and a continued shortage of housing supply, price increases in the third quarter were generally robust and widespread," said Andrew Leventis, Deputy Chief Economist. "At some point, declining housing affordability should temper appreciation rates in some of the nation's fastest appreciating markets, but our third quarter results show few signs of that."

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

EUR/USD: 1.1700(554 млн), 1.1800(1.51 млрд), 1.1825-30(553 млн), 1.1900(458 млн), 1.2000(1.01 млрд), 1.2100(476 млн)

USD/JPY: 109.00(550 млн), 112.00-05(1.53 млрд), 112.75(380 млн), 113.80(1.16 млрд)

AUD/USD: 0.7400(258 млн), 0.7460-65(325 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2775(316 млн)

USD/CNY: 6.5500(1.2 млрд), 6.6000(1.19 млрд)

EUR/GBP: 0.8750(710 млн), 0.8760-63(942 млн), 0.9000(406 млн)

EUR/JPY: 129.00(600 млн), 131.00(346 млн)

Amazon (AMZN) target raised to $1450 from $1300 at Goldman (Street High)

NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC Securities

Home Depot (HD) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities

The international trade deficit was $68.3 billion in October, up $4.2 billion from $64.1 billion in September. Exports of goods for October were $129.1 billion, $1.3 billion less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $197.4 billion, $2.9 billion more than September imports.

Wholesale inventories for October, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $605.7 billion, down 0.4 percent from September 2017, and were up 4.0 percent from October 2016. The August 2017 to September 2017 percentage change was revised from up 0.3 percent to up 0.1 percent.

Prices for products sold by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 1.0% in October, mainly due to higher prices for motorized and recreational vehicles. Prices for raw materials purchased by Canadian manufacturers, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), increased 3.8%, primarily due to higher prices for crude energy products.

The IPPI increased 1.0% in October, following a 0.3% decrease in September. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 18 were up, 1 was down and 2 were unchanged.

Economic expectations are rising slightly, whereas income expectations and propensity to buy have fallen slightly. GfK forecasts that the consumer climate in December will remain unchanged in comparison to the previous month at 10.7 points.

Consumers are still of the opinion that the German economy is clearly continuing to grow. Economic expectations have been confirmed at a very good level and have even improved slightly. Income expectations and propensity to buy can also hold their own in November, even if they have fallen slightly. These indicators are also at an extremely high level. The failed exploratory talks about forming a so-called Jamaica coalition have not been taken into consideration in this data, because the survey had already been completed at that time.

• 2017 U.S. growth of 2.2 pct (+0.1), 2.5 pct in 2018 (+0.1)

• Japanese growth of 1.5 pct (-0.1), 1.2 pct in 2018 (unchanged)

• UK growth of 1.5 pct (-0.1), 1.2 pct in 2018 (+0.2)

• Chinese growth of 6.8 pct (unchanged), 6.6 pct in 2018 (unchanged)

AUD/USD has been following a daily downside trend line for several weeks.

On 4-hour time frame chart we can see that price is again close to the trend line and it also tested that trend line.

In this scenario, we might expect a depreciation of Australian dollar, at least, until the support level and if the price breaks that support level we might have a greater depreciation.

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 5.0% in October 2017, from 5.2% in September (revised from 5.1%).

• The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 9.4% in October, from 9.8% in September.

• The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 2.7% in October, unchanged from the previous month.

• The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increased to 2.9% in October, from 2.4% in September.

EUR/USD: 1.1700(554 m), 1.1800(1.51 b), 1.1825-30(553 m), 1.1900(458 m), 1.2000(1.01 b), 1.2100(476 m)

USD/JPY: 109.00(550 m), 112.00-05(1.53 b), 112.75(380 m), 113.80(1.16 b)

AUD/USD: 0.7400(258 m), 0.7460-65(325 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2775(316 m)

USD/CNY: 6.5500(1.2 b), 6.6000(1.19 b)

EUR/GBP: 0.8750(710 m), 0.8760-63(942 m), 0.9000(406 m)

EUR/JPY: 129.00(600 m), 131.00(346 m)

• Disorderly Brexit would cause slower growth, higher unemployment and weaker currency in short term

• Disorderly Brexit would lead to "some pain"

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1994 (4169)

$1.1965 (4740)

$1.1945 (4101)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1897

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1848 (1808)

$1.1819 (1612)

$1.1783 (2512)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 160073 contracts (according to data from November, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8487);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3402 (2407)

$1.3379 (2639)

$1.3360 (2717)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3323

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3274 (569)

$1.3247 (1891)

$1.3216 (1139)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 44996 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3293);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 43677 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3984);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 0.98 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• We are gradually raising U.S. interest rates

• Not particularly concerned that inflation is a little bit below a Fed target

• U.S. needs to temper 'sharp edge of capitalism' with workforce development, retraining

• Hopes BoJ will continue bold monetary easing

• Don't need to change agreement between BoJ, govt in 2013 on steps to beat deflation

• RBS and Barclays pass 2017 stress test with current capital, would have failed on end-2016 capital alone

• No banks need to raise extra capital due to 2017 stress test, for first time since tests started in 2014

• FPC will reconsider adequacy of countercyclical buffer in h1 2018

• Timely agreement on brexit implementation period would reduce risks to financial stability

• UK vulnerable to reduced foreign investor appetite for UK assets, sharp falls could drive sterling lower

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 2.6% in October 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In September 2017 and in August 2017 the annual rates of change were +3.0% and +2.1%, respectively. From September 2017 to October 2017 the index rose by 0.6%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 2.2% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 1.5% in October 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In September 2017 and in August 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.7% and +1.5%, respectively. From September 2017 to October 2017 the export price index slightly rose by 0.1%

European stocks ended a choppy session in negative territory on Monday, with banking stocks leading the charge lower as shares of Swiss private banking group Julius Baer Gruppe AG were rocked by the sudden resignation of its chief executive, effective immediately. Oil stocks were also weighing on sentiment, as they tracked a slide in oil prices ahead of the closely watched OPEC meeting on Thursday.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Monday after touching intraday records as an early rally in retail shares largely fizzled. However, the blue-chip Dow bucked the weak trend to eke out a gain.

Asia-Pacific stocks mirrored modest overnight declines in Europe and the U.S., though Japanese equities turned higher thanks to a pullback in the yen. Ahead of a busy set of events in the coming days - including a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key economic reports - market participants have been cautious about placing big bets.