CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-11-2017

November data pointed to another solid increase in U.S. private sector output, supported by sustained growth in both manufacturing and services activity. At 54.6, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index was above the 50.0 no-change threshold, but eased from 55.2 in October. As a result, the latest reading signalled the slowest expansion of private sector output since July.

Despite a softer upturn in business activity, survey respondents indicated a robust and accelerated rise in new order volumes during November. The rate of new business expansion was also comfortably above the average seen in the first half of 2017.

U.S. stock-index futures were higher on Friday, a day after the Thanksgiving holiday, advancing with oil prices and with retail stocks in focus as Black Friday kicks off the holiday shopping season.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,550.85 +27.70 +0.12%

Hang Seng 29,866.32 +158.38 +0.53%

Shanghai 3,353.82 +1.90 +0.06%

S&P/ASX 5,982.55 -3.64 -0.06%

FTSE 7,417.86 +0.62 +0.01%

CAC 5,406.63 +27.09 +0.50%

DAX 13,115.07 +106.52 +0.82%

Crude $58.75 (+1.26%)

Gold $1,287.50 (-0.36%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Canadian corporations earned $100.5 billion in operating profits in the third quarter, up $7.9 billion or 8.5% from the second quarter. The financial industries were the main drivers of growth in the third quarter.

Compared with the third quarter of 2016, operating profits for Canadian corporations were up 17.2%.

In the non-financial industries, operating profits increased 3.3% from the second quarter to $65.6 billion in the third quarter, as operating revenues increased 0.3% or $2.4 billion. Operating profits were up in 11 of 17 non-financial industries.

Compared with the third quarter of 2016, operating profits for Canadian non-financial corporations increased 16.1%.

Deere (DE) target raised to $155 at RBC Capital Mkts

Merck (MRK) target lowered to $59 from $62 at Deutsche Bank

• The european banking sector needs to consolidate

• A sustainable solution must go beyond solving the NPL problem at hand

EURUSD:1.1500 (EUR 1.28bln) 1.1600 (440m) 1.1700 (1.4bln) 1.1750-55 (670m) 1.1900 (365m) 1.1950 (325m)

USDJPY: 112.00-10 (1.45bln) 113.00 (440m) 113.50-55 (890m)

GBPUSD: Ntg of note

EURGBP: 0.8885 (EUR 290n)

AUDUSD: 0.7600 (AUD 535m) 0.7650 (365m)

NZDUSD: 0.6850 (NZD 540m)

USDCAD 1.2800 (USD 400m)1.2845-50 (400m)

EURJPY: 130.50 (EUR 260m)

The ifo Business Climate Index rose to a new record high of 117.5 (Around 90% of responses were submitted before the end of the "Jamaica" coalition talks on Sunday.) points in November from 116.8 (Seasonally adjusted.) points in October. This was due to far more optimistic business expectations. Companies' assessments of the current business situation were no longer as positive as last month. The German economy is on track for a boom. The latest figures indicate economic growth of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, pointing to growth of 2.3 percent for 2017 as a whole.

Strength in remortgage activity amongst homeowners, alongside stronger first-time buyer numbers, are likely to have been the drivers of mortgage lending in October, as our estimate showed £23.1 billion borrowed, 14 per cent higher than a year ago. Two-thirds of this was carried out by High Street Banks, which translated to £15.3 billion.

At 7.1 per cent, total amount of credit outstanding grew at a slower pace in October compared with the previous month, while the growth in credit card borrowing remains strong, partly driven by the inflation rate. Growth in credit outstanding by High Street Banks was 5.1%, which also represents a slower pace than seen in September.

The latest figures from the High Street Banks suggest that businesses continue to exercise a cautious approach to borrowing with survey indicators showing demand for credit from smaller and medium sized businesses falling in the third quarter.

In September 2017 the seasonally adjusted turnover index decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month (-1.3% in domestic market and -1.2% in non-domestic market). The percentage change of the average of the last three months compared to the previous three months was +0.8% (+0.4% in domestic market and +1.5% in non-domestic market).

In September 2017 the seasonally adjusted industrial new orders index decreased by 3.9% compared with August 2017 (-5.8% in domestic market and -1.4% in non-domestic market). The percentage change of the average of the last three months compared to the previous three months was +2.4% (+1.7% in domestic market and +3.4% in non-domestic market).

October 2017 monthly values are actual and compared with October 2016:

• Milk powder, butter, and cheese leads exports rise

• Goods exports rose $636 million (16 percent) to $4.6 billion in October 2017.

• Milk powder, butter, and cheese had the largest rise of any commodity group, up $231 million (22 percent) to $1.3 billion.

• Milk powder rose $132 million (25 percent) in value - quantity was down 4.9 percent.

• Butter rose $49 million (38 percent) in value - quantity was down 26 percent.

• Milk and cream rose $35 million (80 percent) in value, and 32 percent in quantity.

• Logs, wood, and wood articles (our third-largest export commodity) rose $98 million (27 percent) to $461 million, led by treated and untreated logs, up $83 million.

• Meat and edible offal (our second-largest export commodity) rose $63 million (20 percent) to $378 million, led by lamb, up $61 million.

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rises to 53.8 in November (52.8 in October)

• Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 54.2, signalling the joint-strongest rate of expansion for 45 months, on a par with March 2014

• Rising exports underpin growth in new orders

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "Following the softer Q3 GDP figure last week, November flash PMI data signalled the strongest improvement in the manufacturing sector for 44 months. "New orders increased strongly, underpinned by business from abroad amid recent yen weakness. New export orders expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years. "That said, a cheaper yen and higher material prices have intensified cost pressures, as input price inflation increased to a 35-month high in November.

A broad gauge of European stocks steadied at the end of trade Thursday, after spending the session struggling to find firm direction. But French blue-chip shares climbed after data showed the country led the strengthening in the eurozone economy this month. How key gauges moved: The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.02% closed up less than 1 point at 387.12 after a topsy-turvy session for European equities. The index had risen as much as 0.2% and lost as much as 0.6% intraday.

U.S. stock futures were struggling to make much headway on Thursday, as traders steered away from making any big trading bets and instead focused on Thanksgiving Day feasting. The global backdrop for equities was mostly weaker, with Chinese stocks dropping sharply and European stocks largely sluggish except for French blue chips.

More new regulations and investors' preference for larger-cap companies whacked Chinese stocks, while activity was muted elsewhere in Asia. Thursday is a holiday in Japan and the U.S. The Shenzhen Composite 399106, -0.49% closed down 2.9% and the startup-heavy ChiNext gauge 399102, -0.27% slid 2.8% as Beijing took steps to halt the proliferation of small online lenders, days after saying it plans to streamline oversight of asset-management products sold by financial institutions.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1936 (5047)

$1.1906 (4238)

$1.1882 (5755)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1852

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1804 (1483)

$1.1784 (1622)

$1.1758 (2241)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 158078 contracts (according to data from November, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8258);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3363 (3315)

$1.3347 (1344)

$1.3335 (1281)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3311

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3263 (583)

$1.3236 (1081)

$1.3204 (1137)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 43199 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3315);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 41015 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3990);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 58.46 +0.76%

Gold 1,291.70 -0.04%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

FTSE 7417.24 -1.78 -0.02%

DAX 13008.55 -6.49 -0.05%

CAC 5379.54 +26.78 +0.50%

STOXX600 387.12 +0.06 +0.02%

SHANGHAI 3352.99 -77.48 -2.26%

KOSPI 2537.15 -3.36 -0.13%

ASX 200 5986.19 -0.22 0%

SHENZHEN 534.82 -16.84 -3.05%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1847 +0,22% 1,1821

GBP/USD $1,3303 -0,15% 1,33231

USD/CHF Chf0,9812 -0,07% 0,9819

USD/JPY Y111,19 -0,01% 111,21

EUR/JPY Y131,76 +0,21% 131,483

GBP/JPY Y147,95 -0,15% 148,171

AUD/USD $0,7622 +0,09% 0,7615

NZD/USD $ 0,6886 +0,10% 0,68791

USD/CAD C$1,2713 +0,14% 1,2695

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 52.8 52.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Finally) September 117.7 115.8

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Finally) September 107.2 106.6

08:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter III 2.9%

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment November 123.6 125.0

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations November 107.4 108.9

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate November 116.7 116.6

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals October 41.584 40.9

12:30 Eurozone ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks

14:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 54.6 54.8

14:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) November 55.3 55.6

18:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks