CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-05-2018

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24.05.2018
23:30
Japan: Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y, May 0.4% (forecast 0.5%)
23:30
Japan: Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y, May 0.5% (forecast 0.6%)
22:32
Currencies. Daily history for May 24’2018:


raw materials

closing price

% change

Oil

71.07

-0.42%

Gold

1,305.30

+1.22%

22:31
Currencies. Daily history for May 24’2018:


index

closing price

change items

% change

Nikkei

-252.73

22437.01

-1.11%

TOPIX

-21.66

1775.65

-1.21%

Hang Seng

+94.77

30760.41

+0.31%

CSI 300

-27.36

3827.22

-0.71%

Euro Stoxx 50

-20.06

3521.76

-0.57%

FTSE 100

-71.70

7716.74

-0.92%

DAX

-121.75

12855.09

-0.94%

CAC 40

-17.40

5548.45

-0.31%

DJIA

-75.05

24811.76

-0.30%

S&P 500

-5.53

2727.76

-0.20%

NASDAQ

-1.53

7424.43

-0.02%

S&P/TSX

-20.18

16113.62

-0.13%

22:30
Currencies. Daily history for May 24’2018:


Pare

Closed

% change

EUR/USD

$1,1721

+0,16%

GBP/USD

$1,3383

+0,23%

USD/CHF

Chf0,99032

-0,42%

USD/JPY

Y109,19

-0,69%

EUR/JPY

Y128,98

+0,25%

GBP/JPY

Y146,124

-0,46%

AUD/USD

$0,7576

+0,17%

NZD/USD

$0,6930

+0,07%

USD/CAD

C$1,28801

+0,31%

22:07
Schedule for today, Friday, May 25’2018 (GMT+3)


Time

Region

Event

Period

Previous

Forecast

02:30

Japan

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y

May

0.6%

0.6%

02:30

Japan

Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y

May

0.5%

0.5%

09:45

France

Consumer confidence

May

101


10:15

Switzerland

Industrial Production (YoY)

I quarter

8.7%


11:00

Germany

IFO - Expectations

May

98.7

99.5

11:00

Germany

IFO - Current Assessment

May

105.7

106.0

11:00

Germany

IFO - Business Climate

May

102.1

102.7

11:30

United Kingdom

BBA Mortgage Approvals

April

37.6

37.8

11:30

United Kingdom

Business Investment, q/q

I quarter

0.3%

0.2%

11:30

United Kingdom

Business Investment, y/y

I quarter

2.6%

2.4%

11:30

United Kingdom

GDP, q/q

I quarter

0.4%

0.1%

11:30

United Kingdom

GDP, y/y

I quarter

1.4%

1.2%

15:30

USA

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

April

0%

0.5%

15:30

USA

Durable Goods Orders

April

2.6%

-1.4%

15:30

USA

Durable goods orders ex defense

April

2.8%

-1%

16:00

USA

Fed Chair Powell Speaks




16:15

Eurozone

ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks




16:20

United Kingdom

BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks




17:00

USA

Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

May

98.8

98.8

18:45

USA

FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks




18:45

USA

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks




18:45

USA

FOMC Member Kaplan Speak




20:00

USA

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

May

844


22:20

Germany

German Buba President Weidmann Speaks



20:15
Major US stock indexes finished trading below the zero mark

The major US stock indexes finished trading in the red after the US president canceled the planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-no.

Trump said that he canceled the June 12 summit "on the basis of great anger and open hostility" in Kim's recent statement, though noting that he hopes to meet with Kim Jong-un someday.

Investors also estimated data on the US. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose again last week, but remained at historically low levels. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, the indicator of layoffs in the US, increased by 11,000 to 234,000, seasonally adjusted for the week to May 19. Economists were expecting 220,000 new applications. This was the second consecutive weekly growth, pushing the number of applications to their maximum level since the end of March. The four-week moving average increased last week by 6,250 to 219,750. The number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits increased by 29,000 to 1,741 million in the week to 12 May. However, the four-week moving average of repeated applications was at a minimum since December 1973 - when the US workforce and population were much smaller than today.

However, the National Association of Realtors said that home sales in the secondary market fell in April, both monthly and yearly, after rising for two consecutive quarters. Total secondary home sales fell 2.5 percent to seasonally adjusted to 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. Taking into account the decrease last month, sales are now 1.4 percent lower than a year ago, and fall year on year for two consecutive months. The average current home price for all types of housing in April was $ 257,900, which is 5.3 percent more than in April 2017 ($ 245,000). The growth in March is the 74th consecutive month of annual increase in prices. Total housing stock in late April increased by 9.8 percent to 1.80 million existing homes available for sale, but still 6.3 percent lower than a year ago (1.92 million), and decreased compared with the previous year for 35 consecutive months.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (23 of 30). The leader of growth was shares of General Electric Company (GE, + 2.79%). Outsider were shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM, -2.23%).

Most S & P sectors recorded a decline. The largest drop was shown by the commodity sector (-1.6%). The sector of conglomerates grew the most (+ 0.5%),

At closing:

Index

Dow 24,811.76 -75.05 -0.30%

S&P 500 2,727.76 -5.53 -0.20%

Nasdaq 100 7,424.43 -1.53 -0.02%

19:00
DJIA -0.88% 24,668.52 -218.29 Nasdaq -0.68% 7,375.54 -50.42 S&P -0.69% 2,714.36 -18.93
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -71.70 7716.74 -0.92% DAX -121.75 12855.09 -0.94% CAC 40 -17.40 5548.45 -0.31%
14:21
U.S existing home sales rose less than expected in April

After moving upward for two straight months, existing-home sales retreated in April on both a monthly and annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. All four major regions saw no gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. With last month's decline, sales are now 1.4 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for two straight months.

14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , April 5.46 (forecast 5.57)
13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.27% Nasdaq -0.07%, S&P -0.20%
13:31
U.S.: Housing Price Index, m/m, March 0.1% (forecast 0.5%)
13:25
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.16%, NASDAQ futures -0.14%

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Thursday, as worries over U.S. trade protectionism overshadowed optimism that higher inflation might not result in more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,437.01

-252.73

-1.11%

Hang Seng

30,760.41

+94.77

+0.31%

Shanghai

3,154.89

-14.07

-0.44%

S&P/ASX

6,037.10

+4.60

+0.08%

FTSE

7,763.30

-25.14

-0.32%

CAC

5,570.44

+4.59

+0.08%

DAX

12,945.55

-31.29

-0.24%

Crude

$70.97


-1.21%

Gold

$1,303.30


+0.66%

13:19
U.S. house prices rose 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency

U.S. house prices rose 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 6.9 percent from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.1 percent from February.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"Home prices continue to rise across the U.S. but there are signs of tapering," said Dr. William Doerner, Senior Economist. "Since housing markets began to rebound in 2012, house price appreciation has been positive because demand has outpaced supply. In the last month, however, some regions reflect a slowing or even flattening of house price growth."

13:14
Belgium: Business Climate, May 0.2 (forecast 0.6)
12:56
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, May 1741 (forecast 1754)
12:50
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, May 234 (forecast 220)
12:43
Upgrades before the market open

Deere (DE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

12:41
U.S initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week

In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

11:38
ECB minutes: uncertainty of outlook has increased, slowdown has been broad-based

  • Growth risks broadly balanced, growth still solid, broad-based

  • Slowdown due in part to one-offs but capacity constraints also more pronounced

11:37
ECB minutes: more pronounced weakening of demand can not be ruled out

  • Confident that inflation would rise towards target in medium term

  • A view was expressed that ECB was close to a sustained adjusment of inflation but most disagreed

10:54
UK Brexit Bill Will Be Brought Back To The House Of Commons In Weeks - Leader Of The House @LiveSquawk
10:35
Italy's Berlusconi says his Forza Italia party will vote against new government in confidence vote
09:28
ONS - underlying position for UK retail sales remains subdued despite april bounceback, growth over longer-term has slowed considerably
08:41
German Chambers of Commerce says U.S. auto import probe is a further low point in our business ties with U.S., national security argument borders on provocation
08:33
UK retail sales rose more than expected in April

In April 2018, the quantity of goods bought in the retail industry remained relatively flat with a slight increase of 0.1% in the three-month on three-month movement.

When compared with March 2018, the quantity bought in April increased by 1.6% as all sectors, excluding department stores, recovered from the declines seen in March.

Department stores showed a different monthly picture to all other sectors as the only sector to report a fall in quantities bought, at negative 0.9% in April following strong online sales in March.

Petrol sales reported the largest recovery in April, with a growth of 4.7% compared with a decline of negative 6.9% in the previous month as road closures affected travel in March.

Online sales as a proportion of all retailing continued to grow year-on-year at 17.3% in April 2018, in comparison with 16.1% in April 2017; with food and clothing stores achieving record online proportions.

08:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), April 1.6% (forecast 0.7%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , April 1.4% (forecast 0.1%)
08:13
Bank of England's Carney says measures to improve financial conduct "are all very constructive but they are not yet sufficient"

  • Says Libor is a prime example of critical hard market infrastructure that has not kept up with market developments

08:05
ECB says financial stability conditions in euro area remain favourable but risk-taking intensified

  • Says deteriorating growth environment or loosening of fiscal stance could impact fiscal outlook, market sentiment

08:02
Turkish 5-year credit default swaps fall 15 basis points from wednesday's close to one-week low of 267 bps after emergency rate hike - Markit
07:39
Many FOMC participants saw little evidence of general overheating of labor market, with wage pressures "still moderate"

  • Fed staff projections see above-trend GDP growth through 2020

  • Most participants viewed firming of inflation as providing "reassurance" that Fed's 2 percent target would be reached; a few cautioned that expectations remained somewhat low

07:36
Some FOMC participants said it may be appropriate soon to change forward-guidance in statement regarding "accommodative" stance of Central Bank monetary policy

  • A few policymakers noted that Federal Funds rate could reach neutral level "before too long" if rate increases continued

  • Some participants said uncertainty around trade policy outcomes could dampen business sentiment and spending

  • A number of participants said U.S. trade policies raised a "particularly wide" range of risks for economic activity and inflation

07:33
Most participants in Federal Reserve's may policy meeting felt it would "soon be appropriate" to raise interest rates again if economic outlook remained intact - Minutes
07:32
U.S. 10-year treasuries yield at 2.986 percent vs U.S. close of 3.003 percent on wednesday
07:12
Europe's stoxx 600 up 0.1 pct, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.2 pct, Spain's IBEX up 0.3 pct, France's CAC 40 up 0.2 pct
07:09
Li: Hopes For A Strong Euro, Will Continue To Buy Euro Debt - China Is A Responsible Investor In The Euro @LiveSquawk
07:08
Russia's Nabiullina says economic growth should not be boosted at expense of macro stability, inflation and budget - CNBC
07:07
GfK German consumer climate little changed in June

By and large, German consumers are still taking a relaxed view of the escalation of the geopolitical situation. This confidence continued essentially unabated in May. Economic expectations remained the same and income expectations increased slightly. In contrast, propensity to buy suffered a downturn. GfK forecasts a decrease in consumer climate for June compared to the previous month of 0.1 points, taking it to 10.7 points.

The termination of the nuclear agreement with Iran by the American President did not have a particularly negative effect on the mood of consumers. Economic and income expectations remained stable at a good level in May, although the propensity to buy was slightly less euphoric. As a consequence, the consumer climate suffered minimal losses.

07:01
The German economy continued to grow also at the beginning of the year, though at a slower pace

As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 15 May 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.3% - upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment - in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the fourth quarter of 2017. This is the 15th quarter-on-quarter growth in a row, contributing to the longest upswing phase since 1991. Last year, GDP growth rates were higher (+0.7% in the third quarter and +0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017).

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) shows that positive contributions came from domestic demand. Especially fixed capital formation increased markedly at the beginning of the year. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose 1.2% on the fourth quarter of 2017. Gross fixed capital formation in construction was up by as much as 2.1%. Also, household final consumption expenditure increased slightly (+0.4%). Government final consumption expenditure, however, decreased for the first time in almost five years (-0.5%) and had a downward effect on GDP growth.

06:59
Italy's 10-year bond yield falls 8 bps to 2.33 pct , gap over bund yields tightens to 180 bps vs 190 late wednesday
06:43
Options levels on thursday, May 24, 2017 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1875 (1789)

$1.1810 (1814)

$1.1786 (1418)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1709

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1679 (2858)

$1.1659 (2862)

$1.1633 (3306)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 156075 contracts (according to data from May, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (6933);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3616 (2562)

$1.3533 (1119)

$1.3466 (331)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3354

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3295 (2398)

$1.3272 (1825)

$1.3243 (1289)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 8 is 38738 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (2562);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 40832 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (2398);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 23.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:00
Germany: GDP (YoY), Quarter I 1.6% (forecast 2.3%)
06:00
Germany: GDP (QoQ), Quarter I 0.3% (forecast 0.3%)
06:00
Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, June 10.7 (forecast 10.8)
05:02
Japan: Coincident Index, March 116.3 (forecast 116.3)
05:01
Japan: Leading Economic Index , March 104.4 (forecast 105.6)
04:56
Global Stocks

Asian stock markets were mixed in early trading Thursday, as dovish news from the Fed was overshadowed by growing trade concerns, particularly after reports that the Trump administration was weighing new tariffs of up to 25% on auto imports.

European stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday, weighed by the return of geopolitical concerns after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump and a round of disappointing eurozone data.

U.S. stocks rallied in late trade to close higher Wednesday, after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's May 2 meeting confirmed that policy makers support a June rate increase and are maintaining a calm attitude about the inflation outlook.

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