CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-11-2017

• Euro clearing for "Super systemic" institutions must be located in euro zone

• Happy about latest euro zone data improvement

• Euro zone inflation still below target but much better than 18 months ago

• ECB still not at inflation goal, we must maintain ample degree of stimulus

Retail sales edged up 0.1% to $49.1 billion in September. Higher sales at gasoline stations, particularly due to higher prices, were the main contributor to the gain. Excluding sales in this subsector, retail sales declined 0.2%.

Sales were up in 5 of 11 subsectors, representing 52% of retail trade.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms decreased 0.6%.

Receipts at gasoline stations (+2.6%) were up for a second consecutive month. This gain reflected higher prices at the pump, largely due to supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey. In volume terms, sales at gasoline stations declined 2.5%.

EUR/USD: $1.1775(E495mn), $1.1785(E948mn), $1.1875-80(E372mn)

USD/JPY: Y110.70($582mn),Y111.00($520mn), Y111.65($324mn), Y111.85-90($1.04bn), Y113.00($387mn), Y113.50($332mn), Y114.00($491mn)

NZD/USD: $0.6785(N$404mn), $0.6850(N$632mn)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8670(E310mn)

• Policymakers also discussed both bigger and smaller cut in qe purchases at oct meeting

• Keeping qe open ended had broad support but few wanted clear end date

• Private sector bond buys won't be scaled down in proportion to over qe cut

• Lower fx volatility was noted by policymakers

• Ecb sees short term upside growth risks

The survey of 128 respondents has however, seen the strongest growth in average selling prices in over 26 years in the year to November. Similar price growth is expected next month. Orders placed with suppliers rose at a solid rate over the year and are set to grow at a similar pace next month. Looking at individual sectors, grocers and clothing retailers reported robust sales.

On 4-hour time frame chart we can see that price has broken the upside trend line and at this moment we can see that the price might retest the trend line to start a bearish movement.

In this scenario, if the price retests again the trend line and if it rejects that then we might consider a new bearish movement soon.

However, if the price retests above the trend line then we can conclude that there was a fake breakout and we can expect a continuation of a bullish movement.

• Says economic growth slowed in oct partly due to OPEC deal on oil production cut

EURUSD: 1.1775 (EUR 495m) 1.1785 (950m) 1.1875-80 (375m)

USDJPY: 110.70 (USD 585m) 111.00 (520m) 111.65 (325m) 111.85-90 (1.05bln) 113.00(390m) 113.50 (335m) 114.00 (495m)

GBPUSD: Ntg of note

EURGBP: 0.8670(EUR 310m)

AUDUSD: Ntg of note

NZDUSD: 0.6785 (NZD 405m) 0.6850 (632m)

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in volume terms, was estimated to have increased by 0.2% to £81.4 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017 from £81.2 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017.

Business investment was estimated to have increased by 0.2% to £45.8 billion in Quarter 3 2017 from £45.7 billion in Quarter 2 2017.

Between Quarter 3 2016 and Quarter 3 2017, GFCF was estimated to have increased by 1.8%, from £80.0 billion and business investment was estimated to have increased by 1.3%.

The assets that contributed to GFCF growth between Quarter 2 2017 and Quarter 3 2017 were intellectual property products and dwellings.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, unrevised from the preliminary estimate of GDP.

Services remained the strongest contributor to GDP growth in Quarter 3 2017, with the components of the output approach broadly unrevised from the preliminary estimate.

The rate of growth in household final consumption expenditure strengthened to 0.6% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2017, with car purchases recovering somewhat from a low Quarter 2.

Business investment growth softened to 0.2% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2017.

GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.3% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2017.

The eurozone economy is showing signs of picking up momentum in the fourth quarter, with multi-year highs seen for all main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation in November. Business activity and prices rose at the steepest rates for over six years, while the largest accumulation of uncompleted work for over a decade encouraged firms to take on staff at a rate not seen for 17 years.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI rose to 57.5 in November, according to the 'flash' estimate (based on approximately 85% of final replies), up from 56.0 in October and its highest since April 2011. The latest reading puts the economy on course for its best quarter since the start of 2011.

Economic growth in Germany accelerated in November, driven by a pick-up in performance in the manufacturing sector, according to flash PMI survey data from IHS Markit. Inflows of new orders showed the strongest rise in over six-and-a-half years, leading businesses to take on staff at one of the fastest rates in the 20-year history of the composite series. The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 57.6 in November, up from 56.6 in October and coming in just shy of September's six-and-a-half year high.

• Meeting included broad inflation debate, with a few participants saying rate hike should be deferred until data showed inflation was clearly on a path to fed's 2 percent target

• Many participants said the economy is operating at or above full employment and would continue growing above trend

• Concerns about inflation were widely shared; "many participants" observed that weak inflation could prove persistent and may reflect drop in inflation expectations

• Discussion also included possibility fed itself may have undercut inflation expectations by tightening monetary policy while price rises were below its target

• A couple of participants discussed possibility that "alternative frameworks," such as price level targeting, might be warranted given persistent inflation shortfall

Growth in the French private sector continued in November, according to the latest flash data. In fact, the rate of expansion accelerated from the prior survey period with the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly survey replies, posting a six-and-a-half year high of 60.1, up from 57.4 in October. The increase in output remained broad-based across both the manufacturing and services subsectors. Moreover, the rate of growth accelerated in each instance, hitting 79 and 78-month highs respectively. The pace of expansion at service providers overtook that recorded by their goodsproducing counterparts for the first time since July

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1906 (4238)

$1.1882 (5755)

$1.1855 (5262)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1835

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1804 (1483)

$1.1784 (1622)

$1.1758 (2241)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 158078 contracts (according to data from November, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8258);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3376 (2767)

$1.3363 (3315)

$1.3347 (1344)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3311

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3263 (583)

$1.3236 (1081)

$1.3204 (1137)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 43199 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3315);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 41015 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3990);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

European stocks lost ground Wednesday, led lower by drops for Altice NV, Schibsted ASA and Barratt Developments PLC. Stocks in the travel sector also came under pressure after Thomas Cook Group PLC flagged a price battle in the Spanish market, though the energy sector found support thanks to rising oil prices.

The S&P 500 and the Dow ended slightly lower Wednesday, maintaining a soft tone after the Federal Reserve minutes indicated that an interest-rate hike is likely but the pace of future tightening could be more moderate than expected given muted inflation. The Nasdaq bucked the broader trend to finish at a record, logging its third gain in a row. The market is closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.

Chinese stocks fell early Thursday on concerns about new regulations, while trading elsewhere in Asia was largely muted. The Shenzhen Composite 399106, -1.80% fell 0.9% and the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.03% slipped 0.5% after Beijing took steps to halt the proliferation of small online lenders. Declines in Chinese shares in early trading recently have often been short-lived; the Shanghai Composite has finished higher every day this week.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 57.92 -0.17%

Gold 1,291.40 -0.06%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

NIKKEI 22523.15 +106.67 +0.48%

SHANGHAI 3430.55 +20.05 +0.59%

HSI 30003.49 +185.42 +0.62%

ASX 200 5986.41 +22.89 +0.38%

Euro Stoxx 50 -16.67 3562.65 -0.47%

FTSE 100 +7.68 7419.02 +0.10%

DAX -152.50 13015.04 -1.16%

CAC 40 -13.39 5352.76 -0.25%

DJIA -64.65 23526.18 -0.27%

S&P 500 -1.95 2597.08 -0.08%

NASDAQ +4.89 6867.36 +0.07%

S&P/TSX -3.07 16073.58 -0.02%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1821 +0,71%

GBP/USD $1,3323 +0,65%

USD/CHF Chf0,98189 -0,96%

USD/JPY Y111,21 -1,09%

EUR/JPY Y131,48 -0,37%

GBP/JPY Y148,171 -0,43%

AUD/USD $0,7615 +0,51%

NZD/USD $0,6879 +0,79%

USD/CAD C$1,26946 -0,65%

00:01 Japan Bank holiday

00:01 U.S. Bank holiday

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter III 0.6% 0.8%

07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter III 2.1% 2.8%

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) November 57.3 57.0

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 56.1 55.9

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 60.6 60.4

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) November 54.7 55.0

08:35 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 58.5 58.3

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) November 55 55.1

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter III 2.5% 1.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter III 0.5% 0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Revised) Quarter III 1.5% 1.5%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter III 0.3% 0.3%

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance November -36 5

12:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

13:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY September 6.9%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m September -0.3% 0.9%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m September -0.7% 1.0%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate November 0.5 0.8

16:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

18:15 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln October -1143 -750