CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-06-2017

Sales of new single-family houses in May 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.9 percent (±13.0 percent) above the revised April rate of 593,000 and is 8.9 percent (±21.9 percent)* above the May 2016 estimate of 560,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2017 was $345,800. The average sales price was $406,400.

Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 53.0 (53.6 in May). 3-month low.

Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 53.0 (53.6 in May). 3-month low.

Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 52.1 (52.7 in May). 9-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 52.9 (53.7 in May), 9-month low.

U.S. private sector firms recorded a further solid expansion of business activity in June, but there was a loss of momentum since May. This was highlighted by the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index falling from 53.6 to 53.0 in June. The latest reading signalled the slowest upturn in business activity for three months. Companies operating in both the service economy ('flash' business activity index at 53.0 in June) and manufacturing sector ('flash' output index at 52.9) experienced a growth slowdown since May. The latest increase in manufacturing output was the least marked since September 2016.

EURUSD: 1.0930 (400m) 1.1000 (330m) 1.1100-10 (1.45bln) 1.1150 (285m) 1.1175 525m) 1.1190-1200 (2.0bln) 1.1230 (660m) 1.1300 (250m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 670m) 110.35 (495m) 110.60-70 (934m) 110.80 (715m) 111.20 (405m) 111.30 (380m) 111.50 (585m) 112.00 (1.0bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2700 (GBP 346m)

AUDUSD: None of note

USDCAD: 1.3250 (USD 230m) 1.3330 (340m) 1.3430 (354m)

NZDUSD: 0.7050 (NZD 468m)

EURJPY: 123.60 (EUR 396m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as oil prices continued to edge up, while investors awaited important macroeconomic data and speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers.

Stocks:

Nikkei 20,132.67 +22.16 +0.11%

Hang Seng 25,670.05 -4.48 -0.02%

Shanghai 3,157.43 +9.98 +0.32%

S&P/ASX 5,715.88 +9.92 +0.17%

FTSE 7,424.25 -15.04 -0.20%

CAC 5,257.53 -24.40 -0.46%

DAX 12,704.30 -89.70 -0.70%

Crude $42.86 (+0.28%)

Gold $1,258.60 (+0.74%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Starbucks (SBUX) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts; target $68

Caterpillar (CAT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in May, following a 1.6% gain in April.

Overall, energy prices rose less year over year in May than they did in April, with the year-over-year growth rate in gasoline prices slowing to half of what it was the previous month. Declines in food prices continued to moderate.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, after posting a 1.5% increase in April.

Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to May, with the shelter and transportation indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The clothing and footwear index and the food index declined on a year-over-year basis.

Shelter costs grew 1.9% in May on a year-over-year basis, after increasing 2.2% in April. This deceleration was led by the electricity index (-5.5%), which declined year over year for a fifth consecutive month. On a monthly basis, electricity prices were down 3.3% in May, led by declines in Ontario. On a year-over-year basis, the natural gas index rose less in May than in April. Conversely, homeowners' replacement costs were up more in May (+4.4%) than in April (+3.9%).

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1180-85 1.1200 1.1230 1.1250 1.1280 1.1300

Bids: 1.1150 1.1130 1.1100 1.1080 1.1050 1.10301.1000

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2750-55 1.2780 1.2800 1.2830 1.2850

Bids: 1.2720 1.2700 1.2680 1.2665 1.2650 1.2630 1.2600

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.50 124.80 125.00 125.30 125.50

Bids: 124.20 124.00 123.80 123.50 123.00

EUR/GBP

Offers:0.8785 0.8800 0.8820 0.8835 0.8850-55

Bids: 0.8750-60 0.8720 0.8700 0.8685 0.8650

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.50 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.30 112.50

Bids: 111.20 111.00 110.80 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7580-85 0.7600 0.7620 0.7635 0.7650

Bids: 0.7550 0.7520 0.7500 0.7480 0.7450 0.7400

• Inflation expectations for year ahead rise to 2.62 pct in june, up 0.05 pct points since May

• We need to discuss 'entry point' for Turkish stream

• Norway's central bank should have a committee for monetary policy and financial stability and an independent board

A further solid rise in business activity in June rounded off the strongest quarter of economic expansion for over six years, according to flash PMI survey data. Although the rate of growth waned to a five-month low, high order book inflows and elevated levels of business confidence meant job creation remained one of the strongest recorded over the past decade as firms continued to expand capacity to meet rising demand. Price pressures eased, however, largely reflecting lower global commodity prices.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI fell from a joint six-year high of 56.8 in May to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, according to the preliminary 'flash' estimate (based on approximately 85% of final replies)

EURUSD: 1.0930 (400m) 1.1000 (330m) 1.1100-10 (1.45bln) 1.1150 (285m) 1.1175 525m) 1.1190-1200 (2.0bln) 1.1230 (660m) 1.1300 (250m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 670m) 110.35 (495m) 110.60-70 (934m) 110.80 (715m) 111.20 (405m) 111.30 (380m) 111.50 (585m) 112.00 (1.0bln)

GBPUSD: 1.2700 (GBP 346m)

AUDUSD: None of note

USDCAD: 1.3250 (USD 230m) 1.3330 (340m) 1.3430 (354m)

NZDUSD: 0.7050 (NZD 468m)

EURJPY: 123.60 (EUR 396m)

Private sector output in Germany continued to expand strongly in June, according to flash PMI survey data from IHS Markit. That said, the rate of growth slowed to the weakest since February, with both manufacturing output and services business activity increasing at slightly softer rates than in May. The latest survey data also signalled the weakest price pressures since November 2016. Private sector employment growth eased to a six-month low, which partly explained a stronger rise in backlogs despite softer new business expansion. The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 56.1 in June, down from 57.4 in May and indicating the slowest rate of expansion since February. That said, growth remained strong overall and was among the fastest registered over the past six years. Output has risen continuously since May 2013, the second-longest sequence of growth since the series started in January 1998.

June's flash France PMI data pointed to a further improvement in private sector conditions in France. Indeed, the latest expansion extended the period of private sector growth to one year.

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of normal monthly survey replies, registered 55.3 in June. Although down from May's six-year peak of 56.9, the rate of increase remained marked overall. Service sector activity rose for the twelfth time in as many months in June. The rate of growth remained marked, despite easing to a five-month low. Manufacturing output also continued to increase markedly, but at a fractionally softer pace than in the previous month.

In Q1 2017, GDP in volume terms kept increasing: +0.5%, as in Q4 2016.

Households' consumption expenditure was at a standstill in Q1 (0.0% after +0.6%) while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated sharply (GFCF; +1.2% after +0.7%). All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated slightly: it contributed for +0.4 points to GDP growth after +0.6 points in the previous quarter.

Exports fell back (−0.7% after +1.1%) while imports accelerated (+1.2% after +0.6%). All in all, foreign trade balance weighed down on GDP growth: −0.6 points after +0.1 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points after −0.2 points).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1331 (1884)

$1.1252 (3091)

$1.1229 (830)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1170

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1119 (3919)

$1.0984 (971)

$1.0892 (667)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 70115 contracts (according to data from June, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (7734);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2916 (2179)

$1.2837 (2404)

$1.2778 (1050)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2713

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2625 (2824)

$1.2562 (1406)

$1.2482 (1657)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 31396 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2404);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 28783 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (2824);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Media discussion of Brexit uncertainty not affecting businesses or consumers

• U.S. experience shows household savings rates can fall significantly to support consumer spending

• Cost of reversing a rate hike is concern for some MPC members

• Gives Doha 10 days to comply - Official from one of the four countries

• Says Doha must immediately close Turkey's military base and halt military cooperation with Turkey in Qatar

European stocks ended marginally higher after a volatile session on Thursday, as energy shares trimmed losses on the back of a rebound in oil prices. The choppy session came as traders kept a close eye on oil prices, which entered bear-market territory earlier this week on concerns of rising production on the U.S., Nigeria and Libya. On Thursday, crude oil CLQ7, +0.40% jumped 1.6% to $43.19 a barrel, but remained volatile.

U.S. stocks reversed direction to close mostly lower Thursday as weak financials and consumer staples shares eclipsed a rally in the health-care and biotechnology sectors. Health-care stocks were among the biggest gainers, adding 1.4%, as lawmakers released a "discussion draft" of the health-care bill that aims to cut Medicaid and eliminate penalties for people who don't buy insurance, among other changes.

Increased regulatory scrutiny over the borrowings of China's most prolific overseas deal makers weighed on mainland markets Friday, as trading elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region was lackluster.

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI down to seven-month low of 52.0 in June (53.1 in May).

Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 52.1 (54.0 in May).

Slowest growth for nine months. Exports rise further and job creation sustained.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "Slower growth was signalled in June, with both orders and output rising at the weakest rates since late last year amid reports of a slight softening in market conditions. "That said, external demand is holding up well, and the sector continues to operate within a solid growth range. This is helping support employment gains, whilst also enabling firms to pass costs on to clients to the greatest degree in over two-and-a-half years."