CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-06-2018

June data indicated that U.S. private sector firms experienced a strong end to the second quarter of 2018, driven by another robust contribution from service providers. In contrast, manufacturing production growth slowed for the second month running, to its weakest since September 2017.

The latest survey also revealed intense pressure on manufacturing supply chains, with delivery times for inputs lengthening to the greatest extent since the index began in May 2007. Adjusted for seasonal influences, the IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index registered 56.0 in June, down only slightly from a 37-month peak in May (index at 56.6). As a result, the latest reading signalled that private sector output continued to expand at one of the fastest rates seen over the past three years.

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Friday, as oil prices climbed ahead of an OPEC meeting later today and in the absence of any important reports on the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Global Stocks:

USD / CAD added about 120 points, having updated annual highs, and is currently trading at C $ 1.3348.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Buckingham Research

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in May, matching the increase in April.

All eight major components increased on a year-over-year basis in May, although five of the eight major components grew at a slower rate. The transportation index rose 5.6% in May, following a 4.7% increase in April.

Energy prices rose 11.6% year over year in May, following a 6.3% increase in April. This growth was led by the gasoline index, which rose 22.9% in the 12 months to May. The electricity index (-0.8%) posted a smaller decline on a year-over-year basis in May than in the previous month. Prices for fuel oil and other fuels were up 22.2% in the 12-month period ending in May.

The all-items excluding energy index increased 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in May after a 1.9% increase in April. The principal factor offsetting the increase in May was a decline in the telephone services index, which fell 7.1% year over year, following a 0.9% decrease in April. The traveller accommodation index declined 4.2% in the 12 months to May.

Following three consecutive monthly increases, retail sales in April declined 1.2% to $49.5 billion. The decrease was primarily due to lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Inclement weather in many parts of Canada may have contributed to the overall decline in April. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales were down 0.1% in April.

Sales were down in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 65% of retail trade.

Removing the effect of price changes, retail sales in volume terms declined 1.4%.

• Saudi-Iran Bilateral Meeting Will Be Helpful Going Into Negotiations Today

• Many Options Will Be Disccused

• Says Production Supply Will Depend on May Figures

• OPEC, Non-OPEC Technical Committee to Meet in Algeria in September

• Roughly Two-Thirds of Supply Increases Will Come From OPEC Countries

• Supply Increases Will Be Gradual

The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 54.1 in May to 54.8 in June, according to the flash reading (which is based on approximately 85% of usual replies). While an improvement on the 18- month low seen in May, the June reading represented the second-weakest expansion seen over the past 17 months, highlighting how the pace of business activity growth has eased since the turn of the year. At 54.7, the second quarter average PMI reading is the weakest since the end of 2016.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index rose to 54.2 in June from 53.4 in May, to mark the first uptick in the index since January.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said: "The headline PMI numbers for Germany make for slightly better reading in June thanks to a pick-up in the pace of expansion in the service sector, though the performance over the second quarter as a whole still looks to be one of only modest growth. "The big disappoint was manufacturing, where the PMI fell further from last December's record high to the lowest in one-and-a-half years. A worrying slide in export order growth seen since the start of the year continued into June, with the latest survey's anecdotal evidence highlighting quieter client interest from the US and China".

The French services economy drove an acceleration in private sector output growth during June, but manufacturing lost further momentum. Posting 55.6 in June, up from 54.2 in the previous month, the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index registered a two-month high.

The index remains at a historically strong level, though is still down on readings seen around the turn of 2018. There was a noticeable divergence between the two principal sectors covered by the survey in June. On the one hand, services providers registered a robust and accelerated rate of activity growth, supported by a similar sized increase in new work. Panellists reported that market activity had picked up, and there was some success in converting this into hard contract wins.

Overall nationwide consumer prices in Japan were up 0.7 percent on year in May, according to rttnews.

That exceeded estimates for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the April reading.

Core CPI also was up 0.7 percent on year - in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, overall inflation added 0.1 percent and core CPI was unchanged.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1805 (2871)

$1.1757 (1115)

$1.1719 (124)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1632

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1557 (2638)

$1.1520 (4521)

$1.1479 (5277)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 101105 contracts (according to data from June, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5277);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3413 (719)

$1.3366 (214)

$1.3328 (163)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3281

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3219 (1477)

$1.3190 (2536)

$1.3156 (2126)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 23249 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (2452);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 29247 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2536);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 21.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Iraq Oil Min Indicates Iraq Will Support 1 Milion b/d Crude Production Increase at OPEC Meeting Friday

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rises to 53.1 in June, from 52.8 in May.

Output growth accelerates, despite slower rise in new business. Inflationary pressures intensify.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "The final PMI reading of the second quarter revealed a quickened pace of growth across the Japanese manufacturing economy. "The sector has sustained a relatively solid upward trend across 2018. June data indicated continued growth in new orders, a faster rate of job creation, rising backlogs of work and increasing output prices. As such, there appears to be further legs in the manufacturing growth cycle. "That said, for the first time since August 2016, new export orders declined. With geopolitical risk aplenty, haven demand for the yen remains a downside risk to the country's manufacturing exporters."