CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-04-2019

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22.04.2019
22:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m February 0.6% 0.4%
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m February 0.6% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index April 10 10
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence April -7.2 -7.2
14:00 U.S. New Home Sales March 0.667 0.647
20:11
Major US stock indexes ended trading mainly in the black

Major US stock indices mainly increased, while Wall Street is preparing to publish a huge number of quarterly reports by companies this week, which is expected to be the busiest corporate reporting season.

More than 140 S & P 500 companies plan to publish their quarterly results later this week, including Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) on Tuesday; AT & T (T), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Microsoft (MSFT) and Facebook (FB) on Wednesday; Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) on Thursday; Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) on Friday.

According to Refinitiv, analysts expect that in the last quarter of the S & P 500 companies will show a decline in profits by 1.7% year on year, which could be the first decline in the indicator since 2016. According to CNBC, the profit figures of most companies that have already submitted their reports turned out to be higher than the analyst had predicted. According to FactSet, 76.5% of the S & P 500 companies that have reported, have shown higher-than-expected earnings. At the beginning of the reporting season, analysts predicted a drop in profits of 4.2%.

In addition, market participants closely followed the situation on the oil market: oil prices rose by more than 2.5% after the Trump administration announced that it would finally ban Iranian oil, which is expected to lead to a reduction in world oil supplies. According to analysts, this step can take about 1 million barrels per day of oil from the market. Shares of energy companies are rising along with oil prices.

The focus was also the data of the National Association of Realtors USA, which showed that sales of housing on the secondary market in March declined after February growth. According to the data, the total sales of existing homes, including single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums and cooperatives, fell by 4.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million. Sales overall declined by 5.4% compared to last year.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (17 out of 30). The outsider was DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP; -1.85%). The growth leader was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH; + 2.49%).

Most sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The largest decline was in the industrial goods sector (-0.5%). The raw materials sector grew the most (+ 1.1%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,511.32 -48.22 -0.18%

S&P 500 2,907.98 +2.95 +0.10%

Nasdaq 100 8,015.27 +17.20 +0.22%

19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m February 0.6% 0.4%
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m February 0.6% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index April 10 10
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence April -7.2 -7.2
14:00 U.S. New Home Sales March 0.667 0.647
19:00
DJIA -0.19% 26,509.77 -49.77 Nasdaq +0.13% 8,008.12 +10.06 S&P +0.04% 2,906.07 +1.04
14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , March 5.21 (forecast 5.31)
13:43
Chinese March data confirm turnaround - ABN AMRO

Arjen van Dijkhuizen, a senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that China’s March activity data published over the past weeks clearly pointed to an improving momentum, compared to the weakness seen in late 2018.

  1. Industrial production growth surged to 8.5% yoy (Jan-Feb: 5.3%) - with manufacturing output particularly strong, - although this number is likely impacted somewhat by Lunar New Year effect (with a sharp drop in March 2018).
  2. Fixed asset investment also accelerated further, rising to 6.3% yoy (from 6.1% in Jan-Feb). That was supported primarily by a further improvement of state-led investment, a result of fiscal stimulus measures.
  3. Retail sales growth surged to 8.7% yoy (Jan/Feb: 8.2%). The March PMIs published some weeks ago showed a clear uptick from February; the composite PMIs of both NBS and Caixin jumped by 1.5-2 points.
  4. These strong activity data (particularly industrial production) also caused a jump in Bloomberg’s monthly GDP estimate, to 7.92% yoy in March (Feb: 6.63%), the highest number since December 2012.

13:35
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.32% S&P -0.29%
13:31
Saudi Arabia oil minister Al-Falih: We will work with others to ensure stable and well-balanced market

  • Saudi Arabia has a long history of working towards oil market stability
  • In the next few weeks, the Kingdom will consult closely with other producers and key oil consuming nations to ensure a stable and well-balanced market

13:26
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.36%, NASDAQ futures -0.54%

U.S. stock-index declined on Monday, as investors returned from their Easter break and took a cautious stance ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,217.90

+17.34

+0.08%

Hang Seng

29,963.26

-161.42

-0.54%

Shanghai

3,215.04

-55.75

-1.70%

S&P/ASX

-

-

-

FTSE

-

-

-

CAC

-

-

-

DAX

-

-

-

Crude oil

65.54

+1.54

+2.41%

Gold

1,279.00

+3.00

+0.24%

12:50
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

26.67

0.01(0.04%)

1928

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

54.4

0.03(0.06%)

1757

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,856.00

-5.69(-0.31%)

17245

Apple Inc.

AAPL

202.85

-1.01(-0.50%)

65698

AT&T Inc

T

32

-0.03(-0.09%)

28011

Boeing Co

BA

375

-5.07(-1.33%)

56999

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

142.88

-0.48(-0.33%)

314

Chevron Corp

CVX

120.86

1.00(0.83%)

20670

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

56.2

-0.20(-0.35%)

3040

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

69.3

-0.37(-0.53%)

42649

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

81.98

0.85(1.05%)

12119

Facebook, Inc.

FB

178.25

-0.03(-0.02%)

23732

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.59

0.04(0.42%)

51166

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

13.87

-0.13(-0.93%)

26990

General Electric Co

GE

9.3

-0.05(-0.53%)

75257

Goldman Sachs

GS

205

-0.91(-0.44%)

201

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,230.50

-5.87(-0.47%)

3227

Home Depot Inc

HD

204.75

-0.91(-0.44%)

661

Intel Corp

INTC

58.35

-0.14(-0.24%)

30083

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

139.54

-0.79(-0.56%)

1456

International Paper Company

IP

45.05

0.62(1.40%)

1702

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

113

-0.46(-0.41%)

5424

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

73.2

0.01(0.01%)

6288

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

123.09

-0.28(-0.23%)

44532

Nike

NKE

88.7

-0.50(-0.56%)

994

Pfizer Inc

PFE

39.2

-0.18(-0.46%)

5266

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

106.5

0.45(0.42%)

9198

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

75.96

-0.10(-0.13%)

1430

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

268.5

-4.76(-1.74%)

163461

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

47.32

-0.16(-0.34%)

2479

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

34.42

0.02(0.06%)

44974

United Technologies Corp

UTX

137.13

0.13(0.09%)

566

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

223.5

1.75(0.79%)

9384

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

58.15

0.11(0.19%)

4701

Visa

V

159.65

-0.51(-0.32%)

3062

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

102.75

-0.43(-0.42%)

2295

Walt Disney Co

DIS

132

-0.45(-0.34%)

5858

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

37.7

0.36(0.96%)

9995

12:46
Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to a pickup in economic growth in March

The Chicago Federal Reserve announced on Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, stood at -0.15 in March, up from a revised -0.31 in February (originally -0.29), pointing to a decrease in economic growth.

Economists had forecast the index to come in at 2.55 in March.

At the same time, the index’s three-month moving average declined to -0.18 in March from -0.08 in February.

According to the report, three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March.

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved up to -0.10 in March from -0.12 in February. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.03 to the CFNAI last month, up from -0.15 in February. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to -0.07 in March from -0.06 in February. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.05 to the CFNAI in March, up slightly from +0.01 in February.

12:33
Asia likely to see growth recovery in the second half of 2019 - analysts

Analysts at ANZ Group see further signs that the current growth slowdown in Asia may be close to a trough.

  • China’s Q1 GDP growth has beat expectations but more importantly, the activity indicators for March showed improving momentum. Across the region, export data for March has been mixed so far, but the latest PMI new export orders point to a likely improvement in the months ahead.
  • A key leading indicator for the global technology cycle is pointing towards a rebound, which would bode well for Asia’s exports. These signs, alongside our view that there would be further monetary stimulus from some central banks in the region, will help secure a growth recovery in the second half of 2019.

12:30
U.S.: Chicago Federal National Activity Index, March -0.15 (forecast 2.55)
11:56
Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week

April 23

Before the Open:

Coca-Cola (KO). Consensus EPS $0.46, Consensus Revenues $7892.67 mln

Procter & Gamble (PG). Consensus EPS $1.04, Consensus Revenues $16365.65 mln

Twitter (TWTR). Consensus EPS $0.15, Consensus Revenues $774.82 mln

United Tech (UTX). Consensus EPS $1.72, Consensus Revenues $18010.52 mln

Verizon (VZ). Consensus EPS $1.16, Consensus Revenues $32136.76 mln

After the Close:

eBay (EBAY). Consensus EPS $0.63, Consensus Revenues $2580.74 mln

Snap (SNAP). Consensus EPS -$0.12, Consensus Revenues $306.24 mln

April 24

Before the Open:

AT&T (T). Consensus EPS $0.87, Consensus Revenues $45204.80 mln

Boeing (BA). Consensus EPS $3.26, Consensus Revenues $23189.02 mln

Caterpillar (CAT). Consensus EPS $2.87, Consensus Revenues $13356.50 mln

After the Close:

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $1.63, Consensus Revenues $14965.81 mln

Microsoft (MSFT). Consensus EPS $1.00, Consensus Revenues $29859.42 mln

Tesla (TSLA). Consensus EPS -$0.75, Consensus Revenues $5365.08 mln

Visa (V). Consensus EPS $1.24, Consensus Revenues $5464.29 mln

April 25

Before the Open:

3M (MMM). Consensus EPS $2.50, Consensus Revenues $8024.97 mln

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $0.93, Consensus Revenues $4599.52 mln

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Consensus EPS $0.09, Consensus Revenues $3771.09 mln

Int'l Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $0.93, Consensus Revenues $5734.70 mln

Yandex N.V. (YNDX). Consensus EPS RUB18.53, Consensus Revenues RUB36179.02 mln

After the Close:

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $4.73, Consensus Revenues $59732.17 mln

Ford Motor (F). Consensus EPS $0.27, Consensus Revenues $37378.21 mln

Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $0.87, Consensus Revenues $16030.13 mln

Starbucks (SBUX). Consensus EPS $0.57, Consensus Revenues $6326.43 mln

April 26

Before the Open:

Chevron (CVX). Consensus EPS $1.31, Consensus Revenues $37432.80 mln

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $0.74, Consensus Revenues $67354.44 mln

11:24
RBNZ unlikely to cut rates just once - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ point out that the RBNZ has surprised investors with a shift towards an explicit easing bias at its March meeting and the market pricing shifted aggressively, with 50bps of cuts priced in by the end of 2019.

  • "Long-end yields have pre-empted a cut but we expect there will be another move lower once the first cut is delivered and markets open up to the possibility of a third. The Fed’s stance will likely cap any further upward moves in the long end, while there may be a brief repricing at the short end of the New Zealand curve following the RBNZ’s May meeting.”

10:54
New Zealand's near-term outlook downgraded at ANZ

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) suggest that the New Zealand economy has been evolving broadly as expected, but softening near-term indicators have led them to lower the near-term outlook.

  • Economic tailwinds are blowing a little more softly than they once were, and that’s being reflected in waning capacity pressures.
  • We have brought our OCR cut call forward, with a 25bp cut penciled in for August (previously November), and two follow-up moves in November and February. With the RBNZ now expected to come to the party a little earlier than we previously thought, it shouldn’t be long before the economy gets the stimulus it needs to push economic activity back into the inflation-building territory.
10:25
Investors betting on vigorous recovery in China's growth likely to be disappointed – Capital Economics

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics says that the latest set of economic figures from China suggests that the economy has begun to find its feet.

  • Last week’s release of activity data for March showed that, having slowed for the best part of a year, conditions in the world’s second-largest economy are now starting to improve. This follows an improvement in March’s trade data (released earlier this month) and, before that, a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMIs.
  • All of this reinforces a point that our China team has been making for a while – namely that policy support would ultimately put a floor under the slowdown in growth that began in mid-2018.
  • Policymakers in Beijing are more cognisant now than in the past of financial vulnerabilities stemming from rising debt levels. Accordingly, the scale of policy stimulus this time has been much smaller than in previous downturns. Beijing has done enough to stabilize the economy but investors betting on a vigorous recovery in growth are likely to be disappointed.

09:56
Case for RBA to rate cut remains thin - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ believe the build-up to the May RBA meeting will reach a crescendo in the coming weeks as the CPI looms large.

  • With our expectation of a +0.4% we think that the case for a RBA cut remains thin, However, there will be little tolerance for any weakness, and we think that a core print in the realms of a +0.2% q/q could trigger an easing from the RBA. Should the CPI print as we expect, the AUD will likely push higher as easing expectations are unwound.
  • For this strength to be sustained however, we would need to see the recent green shoots in the Australian economy sustaining. In this light, building approvals, PMIs, consumer confidence and private sector credit will be in focus.

09:39
BoJ’s monetary policy decisionin the limelight this week - NBF

Analysts at National Bank Financial note it will be a busy week for the markets, particularly in Japan with the release of March data on employment, industrial output, retail spending and corporate prices.

  • “The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision will also be closely watched, especially after recent comments from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the BoJ has the capability to loosen policy further if needed.”
  • “In Europe, a holiday-shortened week will feature potentially market-moving data including the eurozone’s consumer confidence index and Germany’s IFO index for April.”

08:59
Half of economists now expect BOJ's next move to be more easing - survey

About half of economists now expect the Bank of Japan’s next policy move to be monetary easing, including three who see it coming this week, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The other 45 of 48 economists surveyed said they expected the BOJ to leave its policy settings unchanged at a two-day meeting ending April 25. The number of economists predicting further easing from the BOJ has risen sharply in recent months, from 14% in December to 48% this month, as economic growth has slowed and inflation sagged. In April 2018, more than 90% said the next move would be tightening.

08:40
All eyes on Bank of Canada this week - NBF

National Bank Financial’s analysis team suggests that in Canada, the central bank will take center stage this week as in addition to Wednesday’s interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada will also release its Monetary Policy Report showing its latest economic projections.

“Nobody should be surprised if the BoC’s 2019 GDP growth forecast for Canada is downgraded a tick or two from last January’s estimate of 1.7%, courtesy of a weaker-than-expected handoff from last year i.e. 2018Q4. The Bank’s updated estimates of potential GDP will also be important given their implications for the estimation of the output gap. How dovish will the central bank be in its statement? Probably not too much, especially if it wants markets to reconsider any remaining expectations of rate cuts this year. While data hasn’t been stellar lately, there is reason to believe a rebound is in the works after the 2018Q4-2019Q1 slowdown, especially considering the rise of oil production and prices since then. As such, we expect the central bank to remain in pause mode and reiterate the need to maintain the overnight rate below its neutral range.”

08:19
Positive on gold, mixed outlook for oil – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO analysts are expecting an average Brent oil price of $70/bbl in 2019 and suggest that from current levels, both upside and downside risks are emerging.

“Downside risks contain Trump’s comments towards OPEC to rise production and cap the oil price. Upside risks are due to a possible final trade agreement between US and China as well as the insufficient level of investments in future exploration of – mainly – heavy sour oil. We remain positive on gold prices. First of all, our expectations of a weaker US dollar will lift price. Also, a less hawkish central banks and a more constructive outlook on the Chinese yuan will be supportive. And finally, the positive technical picture is also positive for price.”

08:00
China says consistently opposes unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran

China consistently opposes unilateral U.S. sanctions against Iran, the Chinese foreign ministry said amid reports that Washington is expected to announce that buyers of Iranian oil must halt imports soon or face sanctions.

Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China's bilateral cooperation with Iran was in accordance with the law.

China is a major importer of Iranian oil and was one of eight buyers who were granted a waiver by the United States to continue buying Iranian oil.

07:40
Focus on US GDP this week – NBF

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, in the US this week, we’ll get Q1 GDP results on Friday and will be a key macro release.

“A moderation in growth from the prior quarter – recall the +2.2% growth print in 2018Q4 - is in the cards. That’s because of a likely drag from destocking after inventory accumulation last year. Trade probably contributed to Q1 growth thanks to rising exports and declining imports. Business investment spending may also have boosted growth based on rising shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a reasonably good proxy. But consumption spending growth seems to have lost steam based on retail results during the quarter. Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized in the first quarter. We’ll get more information about the handoff to Q2 thanks to March data.”

07:20
UK PM May to be told to quit by top Conservative - Sunday Times

A top member of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party will tell her in the coming week that she must step down by the end of June or her lawmakers will try again to depose her, the Sunday Times reported, without citing sources.

May survived a vote of no confidence in December and although party rules mean lawmakers cannot challenge her again until a year has passed, lawmaker Graham Brady will tell her the rules will be changed unless she quits, the newspaper said.

Brady, who chairs the Conservative Party’s influential 1922 Committee of backbench lawmakers, will tell her that 70% of her members of parliament want her to resign over her handling of Brexit, the Sunday Times said.

07:00
Gold will break out of slump and test 2018 highs - expert

With gold prices sinking to 2019′s lowest level last Thursday, Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper believes they’re closing in on oversold territory. One of her key assumptions: The Fed its interest rate hike policy on hold through next year.

“The Fed will be on hold in 2019 [and] 2020 as it prepares its tools for the next downturn which is likely to come in 2021,” the firm’s executive director of precious metals research told.

Plus, Cooper notes gold follows a historical pattern that leads to higher prices when the Fed puts the breaks on a hiking cycle and even went on to cut rates. Cooper suggests central bank buying and increasing demand from China and India will also likely to support gold prices at higher levels versus 2018. She expects the yellow metal to test last year’s closing high of $1362 in the final three months of the year.

06:40
Spain's Socialists increase their electoral advantage - poll

Spain’s Socialists increased their lead in a poll published in newspaper ABC that gave them 31.5% of votes, but fell short of a majority ahead of a general election on April 28.

It is the third poll in two days that shows the Socialists expanding their advantage, and forecasting that a coalition of three right-wing parties - People’s Party (PP), Ciudadanos and far-right Vox - would not get enough seats to form a parliamentary majority.

Socialist Pedro Sanchez could be reelected as prime minister if he forms a coalition with the support of at least two of the array of parties - far-left Podemos and a Catalan pro-independence group -  according to the ABC poll. But it also showed that 33% of voters have not decided who they will vote for next Sunday.

06:20
Eurozone: wide spread slowdown – BNP Paribas

According to analysts at BNP Paribas, Eurozone’s slowdown is becoming increasingly evident, especially in the German economy, which has suffered from one-off factors but also from a slowdown of exports to China.

“Capacity constraints also play a role. Business climate in the manufacturing sector continues to decline. Italy has now entered a technical recession with quarterly growth negative in the third and fourth quarter of 2018. Inflation is now expected to decrease following the past drop in the oil price, while core CPI is hardly moving. The activity slowdown also implies that the pick-up in core inflation should be slower than expected until recently. We do not expect the ECB to move rates this year.”

05:59
U.S. prepares to end exemptions on Iran sanctions

The US is expected to announce on Monday that buyers of Iranian oil need to end imports soon or face sanctions, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, triggering jump in crude prices to their highest for 2019 so far.

The source confirmed a report by the Washington Post that the administration will terminate the sanctions waivers it granted to some importers of Iranian oil late last year.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end the waivers to exert "maximum economic pressure" on Iran by cutting off its oil exports and reducing its main revenue source to zero.

05:11
Options levels on monday, April 22, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1407 (4986)

$1.1365 (3816)

$1.1308 (285)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1237

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1225 (3238)

$1.1208 (1831)

$1.1188 (2885)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 76684 contracts (according to data from April, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5748);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3303 (2302)

$1.3208 (2240)

$1.3125 (1524)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2992

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2951 (1838)

$1.2920 (1547)

$1.2882 (2031)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 24272 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2445);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 22915 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2559);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Friday, April 19, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 110.44 22200.56 0.5
KOSPI 2.38 2216.15 0.11
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, April 19, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.71478 -0.02
EURJPY 125.775 0.02
EURUSD 1.12408 0.09
GBPJPY 145.339 -0.05
GBPUSD 1.29789 -0.08
NZDUSD 0.6682 0.08
USDCAD 1.33886 0.06
USDCHF 1.01402 -0.11
USDJPY 111.906 -0.06

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