CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-02-2019

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22.02.2019
20:00
DJIA +0.33% 25,934.93 +84.30 Nasdaq +0.50% 7,496.64 +36.93 S&P +0.31% 2,783.56 +8.68
18:03
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, February 853
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +11.21 7178.60 +0.16% DAX +34.42 11457.70 +0.30% CAC 40 +19.74 5215.85 +0.38%
15:55
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau: I still believe gradual normalization of our policy is desirable
  • We need to assess the extent to which the recent slowdown and drop in inflation are temporary
  • If downturn persists, ECB stands ready to change guidance
  • We should look at a whole spectrum of tools including various forms of LTRO to decide on recalibration of conditions and maturities
  • If we had to use negative rates for longer than expected, we should study pragmatically how to contain possible adverse effects
  • On TLTRO, policy shouldn't be designed according to the needs of some banks or jurisdictions
15:32
Fed's Williams: Phillips Curve linking inflation to employment is "alive and kicking"

  • Fed must be "vigilant" against sustained takeoff of inflation
  • Equally vigilant against too-low inflation
  • Persistent inflation undershoot may erode 2-percent anchor
  • New inflation dynamics mean Fed can safely "look through" transitory inflation shocks
  • What is changed is that transitory inflation shocks no longer get embedded in expectations

14:50
BoJ governor Kuroda: BoJ will 'of course' mull additional easing if economy loses momentum towards hitting price goal – Asahi newspaper

  • BoJ has various options available and could combine them if it needs to ease further
  • Will opt for policy that is most appropriate and has least side-effects if more easing needed
  • Inappropriate to change BoJ's current policy framework before achieving 2% inflation

14:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.35%, Nasdaq +0.31% S&P +0.25%
14:26
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.27%, NASDAQ futures +0.31%

U.S. stock-index rose slightly on Friday, as investors remained optimistic about U.S.-China trade talks.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,425.51

-38.72

-0.18%

Hang Seng

28,816.30

+186.38

+0.65%

Shanghai

2,804.23

+52.42

+1.91%

S&P/ASX

6,167.30

+28.10

+0.46%

FTSE

7,203.89

+36.50

+0.51%

CAC

5,211.35

+15.24

+0.29%

DAX

11,477.49

+54.21

+0.47%

Crude

$57.69


+1.28%

Gold

$1,331.50


+0.28%

14:00
Belgium: Business Climate, February -1.7 (forecast -2.3)
13:54
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

29.7

0.12(0.41%)

300

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

50.7

0.33(0.66%)

5105

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,623.04

3.60(0.22%)

24972

American Express Co

AXP

107.05

0.44(0.41%)

1375

Apple Inc.

AAPL

171.4

0.34(0.20%)

72203

AT&T Inc

T

30.85

0.02(0.06%)

19948

Boeing Co

BA

419.7

2.12(0.51%)

14086

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

137.7

-1.18(-0.85%)

24587

Chevron Corp

CVX

119.5

0.36(0.30%)

1125

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

49.6

0.19(0.38%)

14652

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

64.6

0.28(0.44%)

35960

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

78.35

0.53(0.68%)

1413

Facebook, Inc.

FB

160.23

0.19(0.12%)

40000

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.7

-0.01(-0.11%)

100438

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

13.32

0.30(2.30%)

81269

General Electric Co

GE

10.05

0.02(0.20%)

112147

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

39.8

0.18(0.45%)

634

Goldman Sachs

GS

196.52

0.16(0.08%)

2312

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,102.10

5.13(0.47%)

3862

Home Depot Inc

HD

192.77

0.95(0.50%)

474

Intel Corp

INTC

52.76

1.35(2.63%)

263120

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

138

0.16(0.12%)

1514

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

135.3

-0.12(-0.09%)

2826

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

105.51

0.04(0.04%)

10098

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

80

0.17(0.21%)

2537

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

109.63

0.22(0.20%)

70778

Nike

NKE

83.96

0.01(0.01%)

5774

Pfizer Inc

PFE

42.18

0.04(0.09%)

504

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

99.41

-0.37(-0.37%)

5822

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

70.98

0.28(0.40%)

1751

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

293.46

2.23(0.77%)

69705

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

45.75

-0.11(-0.24%)

17475

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

30.82

0.06(0.20%)

80995

United Technologies Corp

UTX

127.29

0.97(0.77%)

2201

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

56.36

0.21(0.37%)

1160

Visa

V

144.4

0.40(0.28%)

4271

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

99.8

0.41(0.41%)

5675

Walt Disney Co

DIS

114.5

0.21(0.18%)

3621

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

32.2

0.41(1.29%)

17194

13:51
Initiations before the market open

Merck (MRK) initiated with a Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; target $95

13:50
Upgrades before the market open

Citigroup (C) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; target raised to $73

Intel (INTC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; target raised to $64

United Tech (UTX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; target $132

13:49
Canada’s retail sales down 0.1 percent in December

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Canadian retail sales edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m to CAD50.35 billion in December, following an unrevised 0.9 percent m-o-m drop in November.

The result exceeded economists’ forecast, suggesting a 0.3 percent m-o-m drop for December.

According to the report, sales fell in 7 of 11 subsectors.

The December drop was primarily attributable to lower sales at gasoline stations (-3.6 percent m-o-m) and electronics and appliance stores (-4.0 percent m-o-m), which however were partly offset by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.0 percent m-o-m), food and beverage stores (+0.9 percent m-o-m) and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+3.1 percent m-o-m).

Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales fell 0.5 percent m-o-m in December. Excluding gasoline stations, retail sales increased 0.4 percent m-o-m.

In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales surged 1.7 percent in December, following an unrevised 0.5 percent rise in November.

Retail sales declined 0.5 percent y-o-y in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.7 percent y-o-y advance in the third quarter.

For the full 2018, retail sales rose 2.7 percent y-o-y.

13:30
Canada: Retail Sales YoY, December 1.7%
13:30
Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, December -0.5% (forecast -0.3%)
13:30
Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, December -0.1% (forecast -0.3%)
13:15
EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom: EU has strong will for positive agenda with U.S.

  • Believes EU will take decision soon on starting trade negotiations with the U.S.
  • Repeats EU would retaliate over any U.S. auto tariffs
  • Urges swift action so WTO doesn’t fall apart

12:26
A vote on new Brexit deal next week very unlikely - Bloomberg, citing UK official
11:50
UK PM May's Spokeswoman: Theresa May will have further bilateral talks with the EU leaders in Egypt on Sunday and Monday

  • Considering no-deal tariffs carefully; the decision will be announced shortly
  • Work is continuing at pace to secure changes that Britain is seeking to the Brexit deal

11:42
Group of Conservative MPs warns PM May they are ready to back Brexit delay, - Reuters

Some Conservative lawmakers said on Friday they had warned Prime Minister Theresa May that they are ready to try to force a delay to Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) to prevent a disorderly ‘o-deal Brexit, Reuters reported.

“Some of our group just feel that they have been forced into no other option but to vote for some kind of delay or pause simply because they don’t want to see no deal,” told Sky News Conservative lawmaker Simon Hart, who heads the Brexit Delivery Group made up of both pro-EU and pro-Brexit Conservatives.

“It is essential that (May) and others around her know precisely what the mood in the party is and where people’s frustrations lie,” he added

According to Hart, he and a colleague had written to May’s chief whip, warning him that they believed some Conservative MPs were resolute on voting against any agreement, as they prefer a no-deal exit.

“If they think that by voting down the deal ... they are going to end up with no deal they could be really disappointed. Actually what they are going to end up with is forcing their colleagues into taking a decision which could delay and ultimately kill Brexit,” he said.

11:25
UK’s retail sales volumes unchanged in February

The latest data released by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed the UK’s retail sales volumes were flat for the second successive month in February.

Within the retail sector, grocers (+45%) continued to provide the biggest positive contribution to volumes growth, with support from clothing stores (+7%), non-store retailers (+43%) and recreational goods stores (+33%). 

But these gains were offset by lower sales volumes at retailers of footwear and leather (-63%), hardware and DIY goods (-46%), as well as furniture and carpets (-33%).

10:56
The Chinese leadership confirmed its intention to maintain the economic growth within reasonable limits.

The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party reiterated its promise to maintain a reasonable economic growth rate in 2019, strengthening measures aimed at stabilizing employment, foreign trade, investment and market expectations.

To achieve these goals, China should pursue an active fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy, considering employment to be its priority. This was reported on Friday by Xinhua, the state news agency of China, with reference to the materials of the meeting of the Politburo under the chairmanship of XI Jinping.

The meeting materials also promised to continue efforts aimed at improving conditions in the business environment, creating new growth drivers for the economy and supporting domestic consumption.

10:40
German Chancellor Merkel: to meet French President Macron on Wednesday
10:37
More Labour MPs said to be expected to quit party over next few days/weeks - ITV news correspondent Walker
10:31
EU’s Tusk to have bilateral meeting with UK PM May in Sharm El-Sheik

  • no Brexit deal will be reached at Egypt summit

10:18
Annual inflation in the euro area down to 1.4% in January 2019

According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area annual inflation rate was 1.4% in January 2019, down from 1.5% in December. A year earlier, the rate was 1.3%.

European Union annual inflation was 1.5% in January 2019, down from 1.6% in December. A year earlier, the rate was 1.6%.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (0.5%), Croatia and Portugal (both 0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.2%), Latvia (2.9%), Estonia and Hungary (both 2.8%). Compared with December 2018, annual inflation fell in sixteen Member States, remained stable in five and rose in seven.

In January 2019, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.70 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.36 pp), energy (+0.26 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.06 pp).

10:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, January 1.4% (forecast 1.4%)
10:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, January -1% (forecast -1.1%)
09:59
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, January 1.1% (forecast 1.1%)
09:44
SAFE: Chinese commercial banks bought a net $12.1 billion of Forex in January

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said, China's commercial banks purchased a net $12.1 billion of foreign exchange in January, compared with a net sale of $7.1 billion in December.

Expectations of China's forex market improved last month, thanks to Beijing's measures to arrest an economic slowdown, said Wang Chunying, a SAFE spokeswoman, added that retail investors' FX purchases continued to decline, falling 11% in January from the previous year.

09:33
Nowotny: ECB has not conclusions yet on TLTROs

  • there are no ideas yet on size of potential TLTROs

  • if slowdown driven by one-offs, TLTRO maybe not needed

  • expects TLRO decision to come later than march

  • Central bank is well prepared for all Brexit scenarios

09:22
ECB governing council member Nowotny: German growth expectations likely to be revised down

  • does not see need for liquidity

  • could consider special measures regarding bank lending

09:18
German IFO business climate declined more than expected in February
  • February Ifo business climate index 98.5 vs 99.0 expected and 99.3 prior (revised from 99.1)

This monthly indicator published by the IFO economic institute based in Frankfurt defines - via a survey of 7,000 entrepreneurs - the level of confidence in the German economy. This index has a great influence on the Euro currency because it highlights the German economic dynamism and investment levels for the next 6 months. A low figure could negatively impact the euro since Germany accounts for almost one third of GNP in the Eurozone.


  • Expectations 93.8 vs 94.2 expected and 94.3 prior (revised from 94.3)

  • Current assessment 103.4 vs 103.9 expected and 104.5 prior (revised from 104.3)


The German economic weak phase is set to continue, Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said, adding a hard Brexit was by no means off the table yet and if U.S. President Trump implemented punitive tariffs, it would hit export expectations. "There was hope that the weak period we experienced in the second half of 2018 was only temporary but it looks like it will continue," Wohlrabe said.

09:00
Germany: IFO - Expectations , February 93.8 (forecast 94.2)
09:00
Germany: IFO - Current Assessment , February 103.4 (forecast 103.9)
09:00
Germany: IFO - Business Climate, February 98.5 (forecast 99)
08:44
Morgan Stanley: China's debt is set to worsen, but there's less risk from shadow banking

China's debt problem is set to worsen this year, according U.S. bank Morgan Stanley - but Beijing is expected to better manage the risks of people borrowing from non-official channels this time, compared to years ago.

China's debt in relation to its economy is expected to climb by three to four percentage points of its economy, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist Robin Xing told, referring to the debt-to-GDP ratio.

"This time, it's a bit different because they are using more manageable, or transparent leverage rather than re-opening shadow banking," Xing told, saying that the Chinese government is increasing the quota of local special bonds, which are essentially backed by the state.

"Despite the temporary increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, it's much more manageable and transparent than 2013 to 2017, when shadow banking was surging," Xing concluded.

08:29
The US keeps demanding actions on the yuan that China wants to take anyway - CNBC

U.S. negotiators are reportedly demanding China not devalue the yuan as a condition for any potential trade deal. Such a measure is likely to encounter little resistance from the Chinese: It's actually in Beijing's interest to have a stronger currency, experts told CNBC.

The yuan's exchange rate against the dollar has been a repeated complaint from Donald Trump. In July of last year, the U.S. president told that the Chinese currency had been "dropping like a rock" and that it was putting America at a "disadvantage."

Since then, the yuan has strengthened about 1 percent against the greenback and Beijing has said the People's Bank of China is pursuing a stronger currency.

08:13
China says would welcome a visit by UK finance minister - Reuters

China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Beijing would welcome a visit by Britain’s finance minister Philip Hammond, a day after the minister had said talk of deploying a British warship in the Pacific had complicated bilateral relations.

“China sets great store on Sino-Britain ties, and hopes Britain can earnestly respect China’s core interests and concerns, and make efforts for promoting the healthy and stable development of relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said a daily news briefing.

“As for the issue of Chancellor Hammond visiting China, we have said that we welcome him to visit,” Geng added.

07:55
Germany general government achieved record surplus of 58 billion euros in 2018

According to updated results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), net lending of general government amounted to 58.0 billion euros in 2018 .In absolute terms, this was the highest surplus achieved by general government since German reunification. When measured as a percentage of gross domestic product at current prices (3,386.0 billion euros), the surplus ratio of general government was +1.7%. These are data based on the definitions of the European System of Accounts (ESA) 2010; they are used to monitor the budget situation in the EU Member States.

On the revenue side, large increases were recorded especially for income and net worth tax payments (+5.7%) and the continuing good employment trend led to a sharp increase in social contributions (+4.3%). Government revenue from interest and dividends received grew considerably (+16.1%). The reason was the markedly higher Bundesbank profit. The expenditure side was characterised by above-average increases in expenditure regarding gross fixed capital formation (+7.9%) and compensation of employees (+3.9%). Due to the continuing very low interest rates and lower debt, interest payments decreased again (-8.5%).

07:39
EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier: does not exclude another Brexit delay

  • more discussions are needed though, not time

  • more worried than before on the potential for a hard Brexit

  • a hard Brexit would be 'very serious' for the UK

07:30
China's foreign ministry: Report that some China ports halted Australia coal imports untrue
  • customs are strengthening quality and environment checks on coal


Thus, China denying yesterday’s Reuters report, in which it was noted that China moves to ban Australian coal imports at its Dalian port.

After these statements, AUD/USD rose sharply, and updated session high

07:14
German economic growth has stalled in the fourth quarter of 2018 EURUSD

Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 remained at the same level as in the previous quarter (0.0%), upon price-, seasonal and calendar-adjustment. Thus there were two different phases of short-term economic development in Germany in 2018. In the first half of 2018, the GDP had increased, by 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second quarter. In the third quarter, however, the GDP was down 0.2%. For the whole year of 2018, this was an increase of 1.4% (calendar-adjusted: 1.5%). Hence growth was slightly smaller than reported in January.

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) shows that positive contributions to growth came from domestic demand. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gross fixed capital formation, especially in construction (+1.3%) but also in machinery and equipment (+0.7%), increased markedly compared with the third quarter of 2018. Household final consumption expenditure increased slightly (+0.2%), whereas final consumption expenditure of general government grew markedly (+1.6%). However, development of foreign trade did not make a positive contribution to growth in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports and imports of goods and services increased by 0.7% each on the previous quarter.

Measured by unadjusted figures, year-on-year economic growth continued to slow. The price-adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% (calendar-adjusted: 0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2018, following increases of 1.1% (calendar-adjusted: also +1.1%) in the third quarter of 2018, 2.3% (calendar-adjusted: +2.0%) in the second quarter of 2018 and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2018 (calendar-adjusted: +2.1%).

07:00
Germany: GDP (QoQ), Quarter IV 0% (forecast 0%)
07:00
Germany: GDP (YoY), Quarter IV 0.9% (forecast 0.6%)
06:35
Options levels on friday, February 22, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1438 (4844)

$1.1411 (1323)

$1.1391 (1175)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1338

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1297 (2813)

$1.1267 (5624)

$1.1230 (5374)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 98584 contracts (according to data from February, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (6216);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3191 (4055)

$1.3142 (3825)

$1.3108 (859)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3030

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2963 (762)

$1.2940 (1097)

$1.2912 (780)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 8 is 42552 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (4055);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 30955 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (1961);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.72 versus 0.72 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, February 21, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 67.01 -0.13
WTI 56.87 -0.65
Silver 15.78 -1.62
Gold 1323.268 -1.11
Palladium 1473.33 -0.98
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, February 21, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 32.74 21464.23 0.15
Hang Seng 115.87 28629.92 0.41
KOSPI -1.1 2228.66 -0.05
ASX 200 42.7 6139.2 0.7
FTSE 100 -61.23 7167.39 -0.85
DAX 21.31 11423.28 0.19
Dow Jones -103.81 25850.63 -0.4
S&P 500 -9.82 2774.88 -0.35
NASDAQ Composite -29.36 7459.71 -0.39
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, February 21, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.70888 -1.03
EURJPY 125.451 -0.17
EURUSD 1.13319 -0.04
GBPJPY 144.294 -0.24
GBPUSD 1.30353 -0.1
NZDUSD 0.68001 -0.8
USDCAD 1.32305 0.42
USDCHF 1.00129 0.04
USDJPY 110.701 -0.13

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