CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 21-12-2018

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21.12.2018
20:03
DJIA -0.88% 22,658.41 -201.19 Nasdaq -2.02% 6,396.23 -132.18 S&P -1.08% 2,440.68 -26.74
18:01
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, December 883
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +9.24 6721.17 +0.14% DAX +22.72 10633.82 +0.21% CAC 40 +1.92 4694.38 +0.04%
15:08
U.S personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.


15:02
Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, December -6.2 (forecast -4.3)
15:00
U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, December 98.3 (forecast 97.5)
15:00
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y, November 1.9% (forecast 1.9%)
15:00
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m, November 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
15:00
U.S.: Personal spending , November 0.4% (forecast 0.3%)
15:00
U.S.: Personal Income, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.3%)
14:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.35%, S&P +0.14%
14:29
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.07%, NASDAQ futures -0.03%

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Friday, as revised 3Q GDP data, which confirmed a strong pace of economic growth, offset worries of slowing global growth and the threat of a U.S. government shutdown.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

20,166.19

-226.39

-1.11%

Hang Seng

25,753.42

+129.89

+0.51%

Shanghai

2,516.25

-20.02

-0.79%

S&P/ASX

5,467.60

-38.20

-0.69%

FTSE

6,708.49

-3.44

-0.05%

CAC

4,691.25

-1.21

-0.03%

DAX

10,628.33

+17.23

+0.16%

Crude

$45.45


-0.94%

Gold

$1,264.60


-0.26%

13:52
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

48.77

-1.67(-3.31%)

62339

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,478.82

17.99(1.23%)

50196

American Express Co

AXP

96.75

0.98(1.02%)

10754

Apple Inc.

AAPL

157.83

1.00(0.64%)

208598

AT&T Inc

T

28.85

0.20(0.70%)

55096

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.14

-0.24(-1.79%)

233013

Boeing Co

BA

317

3.95(1.26%)

11816

Chevron Corp

CVX

105.12

0.14(0.13%)

3555

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

42.96

0.47(1.11%)

14298

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

52.48

0.21(0.40%)

54592

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

69.2

0.57(0.83%)

46409

Facebook, Inc.

FB

134.19

0.79(0.59%)

58922

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

159.05

-0.67(-0.42%)

5827

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.27

0.01(0.12%)

17573

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

10.55

0.31(3.03%)

26121

General Electric Co

GE

7.46

0.02(0.27%)

324349

Goldman Sachs

GS

168.2

-0.21(-0.12%)

4817

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,006.00

-3.41(-0.34%)

1650

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

20

-0.07(-0.35%)

102

Home Depot Inc

HD

165.99

1.83(1.11%)

2008

Intel Corp

INTC

45.92

0.38(0.83%)

9577

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

113.34

0.32(0.28%)

6442

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

96.98

0.53(0.55%)

16687

McDonald's Corp

MCD

174.45

0.77(0.44%)

908

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

73.6

0.11(0.15%)

269

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

102.5

0.99(0.98%)

76930

Nike

NKE

73.59

6.06(8.97%)

275725

Pfizer Inc

PFE

41.93

-0.02(-0.05%)

2453

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

317.92

2.54(0.81%)

36606

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

47.82

0.28(0.59%)

2813

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

29.6

0.31(1.06%)

70115

United Technologies Corp

UTX

109.6

-0.02(-0.02%)

1033

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

242

-0.44(-0.18%)

2910

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

55.09

0.02(0.04%)

6934

Visa

V

129.45

0.69(0.54%)

7939

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

87.39

0.11(0.13%)

7506

Walt Disney Co

DIS

107.56

0.56(0.52%)

13536

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

27.06

-0.22(-0.81%)

2450

13:49
U.S durable goods orders in November increased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.8 billion

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.3 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $2.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $87.0 billion.

13:48
Downgrades before the market open

Altria (MO) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup

13:46
Canadian real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.3% in October, following a 0.1% decrease in September

There was growth in 15 of 20 industrial sectors, led by increases in manufacturing, finance and insurance and wholesale trade.

The rise in manufacturing was the main reason for the 0.3% increase in goods-producing industries after two monthly declines. Services-producing industries grew 0.3%, their strongest increase since May 2018, on widespread growth across sectors.

The manufacturing sector expanded 0.7% in October, almost fully offsetting the declines in August and September. Both durable (+0.9%) and non-durable (+0.4%) manufacturing increased. The increased output in October partly reflected increased inventories.


13:41
Upgrades before the market open

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Pivotal Research Group

13:35
Canadian retail sales increased 0.3% to $51.0 billion in October

Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations were the main contributors to the gain. Excluding these two subsectors, retail sales declined 0.4%. Sales were up in 5 of 11 subsectors, representing 69% of retail trade.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms were unchanged in October. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.3%) increased for the third month in a row. All store types within this subsector posted gains, led by higher sales at new car dealers (+1.1%) and, to a lesser extent, used car dealers (+4.1%).

13:33
U.S GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.


13:30
Canada: Retail Sales YoY, October 0.6%
13:30
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q, Quarter III 1.6% (forecast 1.5%)
13:30
U.S.: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 3.4% (forecast 3.5%)
13:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation , November -0.3% (forecast 0.3%)
13:30
U.S.: Durable goods orders ex defense, November -0.1%
13:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders , November 0.8% (forecast 1.6%)
13:30
Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, October 0% (forecast 0.2%)
13:30
Canada: GDP (m/m) , October 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
13:30
Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, October 0.3% (forecast 0.4%)
13:28
Company News: Nike (NKE) quarterly results beat analysts’ estimates

Nike (NKE) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.52 per share (versus $0.46 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.46.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $9.374 bln (+9.6% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $9.169 bln.

NKE rose to $73.20 (+8.40%) in pre-market trading.

09:40
UK business investment was estimated to have fallen by 1.1% to £46.9 billion in Q3

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in volume terms, was estimated to have increased by 0.5% to £85.8 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018 from £85.4 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018.

Business investment was estimated to have fallen by 1.1% to £46.9 billion between Quarter 2 2018 and Quarter 3 2018; this is the third consecutive quarter-on-quarter fall in business investment and the first time this has happened since the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009.

Between Quarter 3 2017 and Quarter 3 2018, GFCF was estimated to have fallen by 0.3% from £86.1 billion; business investment was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from £47.8 billion.


09:38
UK public sector net borrowing was £7.2 billion, £0.9 billion less on year

Borrowing (public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks) in November 2018 was £7.2 billion, £0.9 billion less than in November 2017; this was the lowest November borrowing for 14 years (since 2004).

Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (YTD) was £32.8 billion, £13.6 billion less than in the same period in 2017; the lowest year-to-date for 16 years (since 2002).

Borrowing in the financial year ending (FYE) March 2018 was £41.5 billion, £4.1 billion less than in FYE March 2017; the lowest financial year for 11 years (since FYE 2007).

Debt (public sector net debt excluding public sector banks) at the end of November 2018 was £1,795.1 billion (or 83.9% of gross domestic product (GDP)); an increase of £59.3 billion (unchanged at 83.9% of GDP) on November 2017.


09:36
The UK’s current account deficit widened by £6.6 billion to £26.5 billion in Quarter 3

The UK’s current account deficit widened by £6.6 billion to £26.5 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018, or 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) – the largest deficit recorded since Quarter 3 2016 in both value and percentage of GDP terms.

All of the main components contributed to the worsening current account balance, with worsening primary income, trade and secondary income balances.

The primary income balance deficit worsened by £3.6 billion to £11.1 billion in Quarter 3 2018, driven by an increase in the profits generated by overseas investors on their UK foreign direct investment (FDI).

Partially offsetting the decline in the primary income balance was a continued increase in the UK’s income from overseas currency deposits – attributable to rising overseas interest rates.


09:35
UK gross domestic product increased by 0.6% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 and Quarter 3

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.6% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018, unrevised from the first quarterly estimate of GDP.

GDP was estimated to have increased by 1.8% between 2016 and 2017, revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate.

At headline level the GDP dataset is largely unrevised, with a 0.1 percentage point revision to Quarter 3 2017; revisions reflect the inclusion of annual benchmarks from a number of sources for 2017 and the incorporation of administrative Value Added Tax turnover data in the output approach to measuring GDP for Quarter 2 2018.

Services remained the strongest contributor to growth in the output approach to GDP in Quarter 3 2018, with growth easing slightly from the previous quarter; construction and manufacturing also contributed positively to growth.


09:31
United Kingdom: Business Investment, y/y, Quarter III -1.8% (forecast -1.9%)
09:31
United Kingdom: Business Investment, q/q, Quarter III -1.1% (forecast -1.2%)
09:31
United Kingdom: GDP, y/y, Quarter III 1.5% (forecast 1.5%)
09:31
United Kingdom: GDP, q/q, Quarter III 0.6% (forecast 0.6%)
09:31
United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, November -6.356 (forecast -7.05)
09:30
United Kingdom: Current account, bln , Quarter III -26.5 (forecast -21.20)
08:20
In November 2018, French household expenditure on goods declined by 0.3%, after an increase in October (+0.9%)

This decline was particularly explained by the decrease in food consumption (−0.5%) and engineered goods purchases (−0.6%). Energy consumption slowed down (+0.7% after +1.5% in October).

In November, spending on engineered goods decreased (−0.6%), after being relatively dynamic in October (+0.8%). In particular, purchases of durable goods fell sharply, while purchases of clothing and other manufactured goods decreased slightly.

Consumption of durable goods declined strongly in November (−1.1%, after +1.0%). This decrease was mainly due to the drop in transport equipment purchases (−1.4% after +1.0%). In particular, sales of demonstration vehicles fell sharply.


07:51
Options levels on friday, December 21, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1592 (4282)

$1.1578 (1681)

$1.1561 (260)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1466

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1430 (2719)

$1.1389 (2887)

$1.1344 (5612)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 67165 contracts (according to data from December, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (5946);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2812 (1449)

$1.2788 (546)

$1.2757 (240)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2678

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2641 (1448)

$1.2609 (2009)

$1.2572 (1736)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 35214 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3746);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 32654 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2872);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:45
France: Consumer spending , November -0.3% (forecast -0.1%)
07:21
German import price index down 1.0% in November

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 3.1% in November 2018 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In October and in September 2018 the annual rates of change were +4.8% and +4.4%, respectively. From October 2018 to November 2018 the index fell by 1.0%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 2.3% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 1.7% in November 2018 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In October and in September 2018 the annual rates of change were +2.0% and +1.9%, respectively. From October 2018 to November 2018 the export price index slightly fell by 0.1%.


07:15
Germany GfK consumer climate unchanged compared to December

The attitudes of German consumers do not portray a uniform picture at the end of 2018. While income expectations are increasing slightly, both propensity to buy and economic expectations have had to suffer losses. Since propensity to save is also decreasing slightly, GfK is predicting an unchanged (compared to December) value of 10.4 points for January 2019.

With the third decrease in a row, economic expectations are continuing their downward trend at the end of 2018. After a fall of 3.3 points, the indicator has slipped to 14.1 points. This is the lowest value since February 2017, when a score of 9.7 points was recorded. Compared to the same time last year, therefore, this score has fallen by more than 30 points.


07:12
Mnuchin: The Fed Is Data Dependent, Won't Speculate on Fed Moves

  • Fed's Projections Substantially Below Ours Coming Into 2018

  • We Believe We'll Deliver 3% or Higher Growth

  • Still Confident We Can Deliver 3% Growth in 2019

  • Think Will See Rebalancing out of Bonds Into Equities

  • We Are in Close Contact With Fed on Treasury Issuance

  • Fed Simply Reinvesting Assets at a Lower Rate

  • Downsizing Balance Sheet Now Gives Fed Capacity to Respond to Weakness Later

  • We're Comfortable With Treasury Supply, Not as Worried as Markets Appear

07:06
Mnuchin: Market Has Overreacted to the Fed's Comments

  • Not Appropriate to Comment on Whether Fed Made Right Move

  • Think Market Disappointed in Powell's Comments

  • Can't Just Look at Fed Median Projection, Should Look at Range of Dots

  • Clearly People on FOMC Who Thinks Rate Don't Need to Go Much Higher

07:03
U.S. Bank Regulators Warns of 'Living Will' Shortcomings at Four Foreign-Owned Banks

  • Fed, FDIC Warn of Shortcomings in Wind-Down Plans of Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS Group

  • Shortcomings Less Severe Than Finding of 'Weaknesses' in Plans

  • Firms Must Address the Shortcomings When They Next Submit Living Wills

07:02
U.S treasury yields barely budged on Thursday despite another big selloff in stocks a day after the Federal Reserve's fourth interest-rate increase of 2018 - DJ

The 10-year Treasury note yield was mostly unchanged at 2.787%, near its lowest levels since March. The 2-year note yield ticked 2.5 basis points higher to 2.671%, while the 30-year bond yield was down 0.6 basis point to 3.010%, its lowest point in more than three-month low as it extended its weeklong move.

07:00
Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, January 10.4 (forecast 10.3)
06:57
General Jim Mattis will be retiring, with distinction, at the end of February @realDonaldTrump

General Jim Mattis will be retiring, with distinction, at the end of February, after having served my Administration as Secretary of Defense for the past two years. During Jim’s tenure, tremendous progress has been made, especially with respect to the purchase of new fighting....

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, December 20, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 54.94 -3.07
WTI 46.21 -2.49
Silver 14.73 1.03
Gold 1259.693 1.35
Palladium 1256.03 0.14
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Thursday, December 20, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -595.34 20392.58 -2.84
Hang Seng -241.86 25623.53 -0.94
KOSPI -18.72 2060.12 -0.9
ASX 200 -74.8 5505.8 -1.34
FTSE 100 -54.01 6711.93 -0.8
DAX -155.11 10611.1 -1.44
Dow Jones -464.06 22859.6 -1.99
S&P 500 -39.54 2467.42 -1.58
NASDAQ Composite -108.42 6528.41 -1.63
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, December 20, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.71096 0.03
EURJPY 127.383 -0.43
EURUSD 1.14446 0.61
GBPJPY 140.872 -0.67
GBPUSD 1.26583 0.38
NZDUSD 0.67735 0.11
USDCAD 1.35049 0.21
USDCHF 0.98789 -0.65
USDJPY 111.281 -1.05
00:01
United Kingdom: Gfk Consumer Confidence, December -14 (forecast -14)

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