CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 21-02-2018

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +45.71 21970.81 +0.21%

TOPIX -0.84 1761.61 -0.05%

Hang Seng +558.26 31431.89 +1.81%

CSI 300 +31.33 3966.96 +0.80%

Euro Stoxx 50 -4.92 3430.16 -0.14%

FTSE 100 +34.80 7281.57 +0.48%

DAX -17.41 12470.49 -0.14%

CAC 40 +12.31 5302.17 +0.23%

DJIA -166.97 24797.78 -0.67%

S&P 500 -14.93 2701.33 -0.55%

NASDAQ -16.08 7218.23 -0.22%

S&P/TSX +84.57 15524.01 +0.55%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2282 -0,44%

GBP/USD $1,3916 -0,56%

USD/CHF Chf0,93894 +0,31%

USD/JPY Y107,77 +0,42%

EUR/JPY Y132,37 -0,02%

GBP/JPY Y149,981 -0,13%

AUD/USD $0,7802 -1,04%

NZD/USD $0,7316 -0,41%

USD/CAD C$1,27009 +0,42%

07:45 France CPI, y/y (Finally) January 1.2% 1.4%

07:45 France CPI, m/m (Finally) January 0.3% -0.1%

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 127.7 127.0

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 108.4 108.0

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 117.6 117.0

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.5% 0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter IV 1.7% 2.4%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Revised) Quarter IV 1.7% 1.5%

09:30тUnited Kingdom GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter IV 0.4% 0.5%

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance February 12 13

12:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

13:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY December 6.5%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m December 1.6% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims February 1942 1930

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 230 230

14:00 Belgium Business Climate February 1.8 1.5

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators January 0.6% 0.7%

15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February 1.841 1.333

17:10 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales YoY Quarter IV 4.1%

21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter IV 0.2% 1.4%

22:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y January 0.9% 0.9%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y January 1% 1.3%

The main US stock indices declined moderately, which was due to a further increase in fears about the growth of yield of government bonds.

The focus of investors' attention is also the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC, which indicated that the Fed does not intend to raise interest rates at a higher rate. According to the document, the leaders of the Fed expect that rates will increase "gradually", while they are not too concerned about the possible overheating of the economy. Heads of the Central Bank in January, more highly estimated the potential growth rate of the US economy than in the December meeting.

Prior to the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, some influence on the indices was provided by the US data. As it became known, in February in the US there was a noticeable improvement in the growth of business activity in the private sector of the economy. This was underscored by the growth of the seasonally adjusted preliminary composite PMI index from IHS Markit for the US to 55.9, compared to 53.8 in January, the highest since November 2015.

In addition, home sales in the US secondary market unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January, compounded by the constant deficit of houses, which pushes up prices and keeps primary home buyers out of the market. The National Association of Realtors said that home sales in the secondary market fell by 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual figure of 5.38 million units. The pace of sales in December was revised to 5.56 million units from previously registered 5.57 million units.

Most components of the DOW index finished the session in the red (26 of 30). Outsider were shares Walmart Inc. (WMT, -2.75%). The leader of growth was shares United Technologies Corporation (UTX, + 2.21%).

All sectors of the S & P index, except for the services sector (0.0%), recorded a drop. The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-1.2%).

At closing:

Dow -0.07% 24.947.47 -17.28

Nasdaq -0.22% 7.218.23 -16.08

S & P -0.55% 2,701.33 -14.93

Existing-home sales slumped for the second consecutive month in January and experienced their largest decline on an annual basis in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales declines last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, sank 3.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million from a downwardly revised 5.56 million in December 2017. After last month's decline, sales are 4.8 percent below a year ago (largest annual decline since August 2014 at 5.5 percent) and at their slowest pace since last September (5.37 million).

This was highlighted by a rise in the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index to 55.9, up from 53.8 in January and the highest reading for almost two-and-a-half years. February data pointed to similarly sharp increases in both manufacturing production and service sector activity. The latter recorded a much stronger rate of expansion than at the start of 2018, helped by the largest rise in new work received by service providers since March 2015.

Stronger new business growth underpinned a robust upturn in private sector payroll numbers during February. The latest increase in staffing levels was the most marked since August 2015.

• Broadbent says further rises in interest rates to above 0.50 pct are likely to be required, though we still believe those are likely to be gradual and limited in extent

• Mpc will monitor closely the incoming evidence on the evolving economic outlook

• Wage growth looks to be picking up

• Trade-off between growth and inflation has diminished

• Horizon to bring inflation back to target has moved in from three years, has not jumped to two years in MPC's collective view

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Wednesday, as investors awaited the release of the minutes for the January FOMC meeting that could provide clues on the pace of interest rate hikes.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,970.81 +45.71 +0.21%

Hang Seng 31,431.89 +558.26 +1.81%

Shanghai -

S&P/ASX 5,943.70 +2.80 +0.05%

FTSE 7,262.24 +15.47 +0.21%

CAC 5,279.81 -10.05 -0.19%

DAX 12,433.77 -54.13 -0.43%

Crude $61.41 (-0.61%)

Gold $1,331.20 (0.00%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) target raised to $136 from $133 at Morgan Stanley

Amazon (AMZN) target raised to $1750 from $1350 at MKM Partners

Alphabet A (GOOGL) target raised to $1355 from $1210 at MKM Partners

Home Depot (HD) target raised to $215 from $190 at Argus

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.5% both including and excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.3% both including and excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between July to September 2017 and October to December 2017, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased, but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were 32.15 million people in work, 88,000 more than for July to September 2017 and 321,000 more than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.4%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier.

Eurozone business activity continued to rise at a steep pace in February, albeit with the rate of expansion cooling from the near 12-year high recorded in January. Price pressures and employment growth also remained elevated, though likewise saw rates of increase ease slightly. Business optimism about the coming year meanwhile ticked higher.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI fell from 58.8 in January to 57.5 in February, according to the estimate, which is based on approximately 85% of usual final replies.

The slower growth of business activity reflected an easing in the rate of increase of new orders which, while elevated, slipped to a five-month low

Private sector growth remained elevated in February according to latest data. That said, at 57.8 down from 59.6 last month, the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index signalled the slowest rate of expansion since October last year. Rates of output growth softened in the manufacturing and services sectors. Moreover, the pace of expansion at manufacturers dipped below their service sector counterparts for the first time since November. Nevertheless, growth remained marked in each case.

Germany's private sector continued to see strong growth in February, despite the pace of expansion slowing down from the near seven-year high seen during the opening month of the year, according to the latest PMI survey from IHS Markit.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly responses, dipped to a three-month low of 57.4 in February, from January's 81-month high of 59.0. Nevertheless, the latest reading was still among the highest seen since early-2011 and reflected robust, albeit slower, growth across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2440 (4593)

$1.2409 (1063)

$1.2375 (1406)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2311

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2271 (6386)

$1.2246 (2247)

$1.2216 (5890)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 129422 contracts (according to data from February, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6386);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4128 (1926)

$1.4085 (3712)

$1.4055 (1335)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3980

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3916 (1594)

$1.3872 (1857)

$1.3815 (2353)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 48716 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3712);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 46072 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2352);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Must say yen's recent moves one-sided

The seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.6 per cent in December quarter 2017 according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The WPI rose 2.1 per cent through the year seasonally adjusted to December quarter 2017.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said "The annual rate of wage growth has increased for the second consecutive quarter reflecting falling unemployment and underemployment rates, and increasing job vacancy levels."

Seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 1.9 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.4 per cent through the year to December quarter 2017.

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI edges lower to 54.0 in February (54.8 in January).

• Output and new orders both grow at slowest pace since October 2017.

• Employment growth accelerates to 11-year high.

Comment: Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "February Japan flash PMI data is a fairly mixed bag overall. On the one hand, output and new business inflows increased to weaker extents, while recent yen appreciation has coincided with slower new export order growth. Furthermore, a number of panellists indicated that the stronger currency had prompted them to lower prices to overseas customers. Indeed, further yen strengthening will create unwanted drag on inflationary pressures. "That said, employment growth accelerating to an 11- year high signals confidence that expansionary output and demand trends will continue for the time being."