CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-06-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +162.66 20230.41 +0.81%

TOPIX +11.18 1617.25 +0.70%

Hang Seng -81.51 25843.04 -0.31%

CSI 300 -7.18 3546.49 -0.20%

Euro Stoxx 50 -18.92 3560.66 -0.53%

FTSE 100 -51.10 7472.71 -0.68%

DAX -74.16 12814.79 -0.58%

CAC 40 -17.07 5293.65 -0.32%

DJIA -61.85 21467.14 -0.29

S&P 500 -16.43 2437.03 -0.67

NASDAQ -50.98 6188.03 -0.82

S&P/TSX -116.44 15149.60 -0.76

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1134 -0,13%

GBP/USD $1,2623 -0,89%

USD/CHF Chf0,9747 -0,07%

USD/JPY Y111,44 -0,11%

EUR/JPY Y124,08 -0,23%

GBP/JPY Y140,67 -0,99%

AUD/USD $0,7577 -0,25%

NZD/USD $0,7237 +0,12%

USD/CAD C$1,3265 +0,35%

00:30 Australia Leading Index May -0.1%

05:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m April -0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln May -9.65 -7

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks

13:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales May 5.57 5.55

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June -1.661 -2.18

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

22:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals May 21.5%

Major US stock indices declined moderately on Tuesday, retreating from record levels, as a sharp fall in oil prices affected the shares of energy companies, and the restoration of shares in technical companies was suspended.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department's report showed that in the first quarter the current account deficit in the US increased slightly as the country imported more oil, spare parts and supplies for its factories. According to the report, the current account deficit increased by 2.4% to $ 116.8 billion. The current account deficit for the fourth quarter of 2016 was revised to $ 114 billion compared to the previously reported $ 112.4 billion. Economists predicted that the deficit would increase to $ 124 billion The current account deficit in the first quarter was 2.5% of gross domestic product, compared to 2.4% in the fourth quarter.

Oil prices fell about 2.0%, reaching 7-month lows. Quotations were pressured by the news of an increase in supply by several key producers, which undermines attempts by OPEC and other countries outside the cartel to support the market by reducing oil production.

Most of the components of the DOW index closed in the red (20 of 30). Most fell shares of General Electric Company (GE, -2.33%). Leader of the growth were shares of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK, + 1.44%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. Most of all fell the sector of basic materials (-1.8%). Growth was demonstrated only by the health sector (+ 0.3%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.29% 21.467.35 -61.64

Nasdaq -0.82% 6,188.03 -50.98

S & P -0.67% 2,437.11 -16.35

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 967m) 1.1130-40 (710m) 1.1150-60 (1.43bln) 1.1280 (385m) 1.1300-05 (685m)

USDJPY: 110.50-60 (945m) 111.70-80 (500m) 110.90-111.00 (830m) 111.20-30 (535m) 113.00 (370m)

GBPUSD: 1.2650 (GBP 205m) 1.2700 (335m) 1.2780-90 (390m) 1.2800 (180m)

EURGBP: 0.8750-60 (EUR 230m)

AUDUSD: 0.7440-50 (500m) 0.7540-50 (655m)

USDCAD: 1.3300 (USD 556m)

EURJPY: 123.55-65 (EUR 400m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as investors decided to take a pause after the S&P 500 and the Dow settled new record highs at the previous session.

Stocks:

Nikkei 20,230.41 +162.66 +0.81%

Hang Seng 25,843.04 -81.51 -0.31%

Shanghai 3,140.30 -4.07 -0.13%

S&P/ASX 5,757.25 -47.92 -0.83%

FTSE 7,511.36 -12.45 -0.17%

CAC 5,312.64 +1.92 +0.04%

DAX 12,879.18 -9.77 -0.08%

Crude $43.36 (-2.43%)

Gold $1,247.40 (+0.06%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen; target raised to $180 from $142

Wholesale sales increased 1.0% to $61.0 billion in April, a seventh consecutive monthly advance. Gains were recorded in three of seven subsectors, accounting for 41% of total wholesale sales, and were led by the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector.

In volume terms, wholesale sales increased 0.7% from March to April.

The machinery, equipment and supplies subsector recorded the largest gain in dollar terms in April, up 7.3% to $12.4 billion. Higher sales were recorded in three of four industries, with the farm, lawn and garden machinery and equipment, and the other machinery, equipment and supplies industries contributing the most to the gain after both posted declines in March.

Sales in the food, beverage and tobacco subsector rose 1.5% to $11.8 billion, a third consecutive monthly gain. Higher sales in the food industry (+1.4%) contributed the most to the gain.

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $116.8 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2017 from $114.0 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The $2.8 billion increase in the current-account deficit reflected a $5.3 billion increase in the deficit on goods and a $3.6 billion decrease in the surplus on primary income that were partly offset by a $5.8 billion decrease in the deficit on secondary income and a $0.3 billion increase in the surplus on services.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1165 1.1180 1.1200 1.1230 1.1250 1.1280 1.1300

Bids: 1.1140 1.1125-30 1.1100 1.1080 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2760 1.2780 1.2830 1.2850 1.2880 1.2900

Bids: 1.2680 1.2650 1.2630 1.2600-10

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.80 125.00 125.30 125.50

Bids: 124.20 124.00 123.75 123.50 123.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8820-25 0.8850-55 0.8885 0.8900

Bids: 0.8750 0.8720 0.8700 0.8685 0.8650

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.65 111.80 112.00 112.30 112.50

Bids: 111.50 111.25-30 111.00 110.80 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7620 0.7635 0.7650 0.7680 0.7700 0.7750

Bids: 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500-05

• Investment authority has made dollar deposits in local banking system as precautionary step

• Banks do not need dollar liquidity at present, withdrawals have been minor

• Can think about a euro zone finance minister if the framework is right

• Danger of brexit talks is that EU27 do not sufficiently deal with development of remaining eu members

• Want to continue good partnership with Britain after brexit, hope negotiations take place in good spirit

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 967m) 1.1130-40 (710m) 1.1150-60 (1.43bln) 1.1280 (385m) 1.1300-05 (685m)

USDJPY: 110.50-60 (945m) 111.70-80 (500m) 110.90-111.00 (830m) 111.20-30 (535m) 113.00 (370m)

GBPUSD: 1.2650 (GBP 205m) 1.2700 (335m) 1.2780-90 (390m) 1.2800 (180m)

EURGBP: 0.8750-60 (EUR 230m)

AUDUSD: 0.7440-50 (500m) 0.7540-50 (655m)

USDCAD: 1.3300 (USD 556m)

EURJPY: 123.55-65 (EUR 400m)

This reflected surpluses for goods (€25.1 billion), primary income (€8.2 billion) and services (€7.4 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€18.5 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in April 2017 recorded a surplus of €349.9 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €358.6 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to April 2016 (see Table 1 and Chart 1). This development was due to decreases in the surpluses for services (from €70.4 billion to €57.8 billion) and goods (from €359.5 billion to €357.2 billion), and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €122.4 billion to €145.0 billion). These were partly offset by an increase in the surplus for primary income (from €51.1 billion to €79.9 billion).

• Extent to which UK current account deficit has moved closer to sustainability remains an open question, hinges on Brexit talks

• Higher global growth needs new approach to trade policy, Brexit will be key test

• Firms may soon need to activate brexit contingency plans, depending on if and how soon transition deal reached

• "Anaemic" wage growth and mixed signals on consumer spending and business investment mean now is not time to raise rates

• Monetary policy cannot prevent weaker real income growth likely to accompany Brexit transition

• Bank of England obliged to balance trade-off between lowering inflation and supporting growth "in such exceptional circumstances"

• Government will remain committed to keeping taxes as low as possible

• Fragmentation of financial services after brexit would result in poorer quality, higher priced products for everyone concerned

• Options discussed include expanding drone strikes in Pakistan, adjusting aid, ally status

• Sees inflation struggling to reach 2 pct based on recent data

• Low household income growth, high debt posed risks to outlook for consumption

• Wage growth to remain low for some time, noted isolated reports of higher pay deals

• House prices rising briskly in some markets, tentative signs pressure starting to ease

• Members noted would take time for tighter bank lending standards to impact housing market

• Important to maintain close cooperation with other regulators, especially APRA

• Discussed how financial stability affected monetary policy, reviewed experience in U.S. and Sweden

• Recent faster pace of jobs growth to continue, but underemployment still high

• Repeats a rising AUD would complicate economic adjustment

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government's Expert Group - summer 2017:

A further marked increase in economic momentum is to be expected over the coming quarters given the promising outlook for the global economy and positive leading indicators. The Federal Government's Expert Group is therefore anticipating gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.4% in 2017 (previously: 1.6%) and by 1.9% in 2018 (unchanged). Both domestic demand and Swiss foreign trade are expected to contribute to growth positively. As the economic situation brightens, the job market is also likely to continue its recovery. The Expert Group still anticipates an unemployment rate of 3.2% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018.

In May 2017 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.8% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In April 2017 the annual rate of change all over had been 3.4%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Compared with the preceding month April 2017 the overall index fell by 0.2% in May 2017 (+0.4 in April and unchanged in March).

In May 2017 the price indices of all main industrial groups increased compared with May 2016: Energy prices rose by 3.0%, though the development of prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of petroleum products increased by 6.7% and prices of electricity by 5.6%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 5.5%. Prices of intermediate goods rose by 3.7%, prices of non-durable consumer goods by 3.5%. Prices of durable consumer goods and prices of capital goods increased each by 1.1%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 2.7% up on May 2016 and rose by 0.1% compared with April 2017.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1330 (1010)

$1.1274 (1888)

$1.1218 (2601)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1160

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1116 (829)

$1.1062 (957)

$1.1009 (658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 68368 contracts (according to data from June, 19) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (7842);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2937 (2111)

$1.2883 (2160)

$1.2828 (1007)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2743

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2663 (1967)

$1.2609 (1264)

$1.2557 (2084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 28406 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2427);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 27562 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (3569);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Stocks across Europe leapt Monday, with French shares rising by the most in more than a month after French President Emmanuel Macron's upstart party scored a majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday.

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with both the Dow and the S&P 500 ending at new records as technology shares rebounded from a recent bout of sharp weakness to lead the market higher.

The Nikkei Stock Average jumped more than 1% to a fresh 22-month high as the yen fell, though other Asia-Pacific markets were relatively quiet following a global rally Monday that pushed some indexes in the U.S. and Europe to fresh highs. In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley expressed optimism on Monday about the U.S. economy. He also signaled a willingness by the Fed to continue raising rates gradually.