CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-10-2018

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19.10.2018
19:01
DJIA +0.32% 25,460.81 +81.36 Nasdaq -0.39% 7,456.02 -29.11 S&P +0.08% 2,771.10 +2.32
17:02
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, October 873
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +22.81 7049.80 +0.32% DAX -35.38 11553.83 -0.31% CAC 40 -32.13 5084.66 -0.63%
14:06
U.S existing-home sales remained steady in August after four straight months of decline

Existing-home sales remained steady in August after four straight months of decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest canceled out downturns in the South and West. Total existing-home, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, did not change from July and remained at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.34 million in August. Sales are now down 1.5 percent from a year ago (5.42 million in August 2017). Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the decline in existing home sales appears to have hit a plateau with robust regional sales. "Strong gains in the Northeast and a moderate uptick in the Midwest helped to balance out any losses in the South and West, halting months of downward momentum," he said. "With inventory stabilizing and modestly rising, buyers appear ready to step back into the market. The median existing-home price2 for all housing types in August was $264,800, up 4.6 percent from August 2017 ($253,100). August's price increase marks the 78th straight month of year-over-year gains".

14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , September 5.15 (forecast 5.3)
13:58
Moscovici: EU not willing to lecture Italy govt on budget @lemasabachthani
13:35
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.66%, S&P +0.37%
13:23
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.27%, NASDAQ futures +0.49%

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Friday, as a slew of strong corporate earnings reports powered a rebound in the stock market after steep losses in the previous session.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,532.08

-126.08

-0.56%

Hang Seng

25,561.40

+106.85

+0.42%

Shanghai

2,550.47

+64.05

+2.58%

S&P/ASX

5,939.50

-2.90

-0.05%

FTSE

7,051.11

+24.12

+0.34%

CAC

5,081.99

-34.80

-0.68%

DAX

11,567.67

-21.54

-0.19%

Crude

$69.33


+0.99%

Gold

$1,231.70


+0.13%

12:56
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

39.19

0.34(0.88%)

2386

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

61.18

0.25(0.41%)

1054

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,783.21

12.49(0.71%)

67285

American Express Co

AXP

103.75

0.91(0.89%)

5322

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

46.88

-1.73(-3.56%)

10254

Apple Inc.

AAPL

218.45

2.43(1.12%)

338307

AT&T Inc

T

32.57

0.07(0.22%)

18958

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.22

0.06(0.46%)

81102

Boeing Co

BA

361.5

2.15(0.60%)

6683

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

136.25

1.31(0.97%)

13552

Chevron Corp

CVX

117.75

0.28(0.24%)

2927

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

68.8

0.18(0.26%)

18067

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

147.99

0.79(0.54%)

1100

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

82.05

0.20(0.24%)

10569

Facebook, Inc.

FB

156.15

1.23(0.79%)

95607

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

219

1.71(0.79%)

960

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.35

-0.16(-1.88%)

457213

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

12.32

0.18(1.48%)

27067

General Electric Co

GE

12.4

0.02(0.16%)

190039

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

30.85

-0.23(-0.74%)

62368

Goldman Sachs

GS

225.43

0.48(0.21%)

9951

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,098.97

11.00(1.01%)

7125

Home Depot Inc

HD

180.56

0.12(0.07%)

1972

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

159.14

3.95(2.55%)

6316

Intel Corp

INTC

45.09

0.12(0.27%)

59972

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

130.93

0.38(0.29%)

15527

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

139.72

0.22(0.16%)

6509

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

108.5

0.41(0.38%)

8499

McDonald's Corp

MCD

167.25

0.44(0.26%)

946

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

109.11

0.61(0.56%)

104384

Nike

NKE

76

0.40(0.53%)

3262

Pfizer Inc

PFE

43.95

-0.05(-0.11%)

3531

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

84.59

4.35(5.42%)

224402

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

266.5

2.59(0.98%)

84718

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

29.37

0.08(0.27%)

64924

United Technologies Corp

UTX

128.96

0.02(0.02%)

455

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

267.9

1.09(0.41%)

3893

Visa

V

140.06

0.77(0.55%)

6374

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

96.5

0.33(0.34%)

1982

Walt Disney Co

DIS

117.65

1.47(1.27%)

19478

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

30.77

1.28(4.34%)

258845

12:53
Analyst coverage initiations before the market open

Apple (AAPL) initiated with Outperform at Wedbush; target $310

12:53
Downgrades before the market open

Travelers (TRV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

12:52
Upgrades before the market open

Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Barclays

12:35
Candian CPI declined 0.4% in September vs -0.1% expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 2.8% increase in August. Month over month, the CPI decreased 0.4% as transitory pressures from the gasoline, air transportation and travel tours indexes, which boosted the all-items CPI in July and August, eased.

Prices were up in all eight major components in the 12 months to September. The transportation index increased at a slower pace in September (+3.9%) than in August (+7.2%), but remained the largest contributor to the year-over-year increase.

Prices for durable goods rose 0.2% year over year, after increasing 1.1% in August. The purchase of passenger vehicles index (+0.6%) rose less on a year-over-year basis in September than in the previous month (+2.3%), which was largely attributable to the lower availability of new model-year vehicles compared with the same month last year.

12:33
Canadian retail sales declined 0.1% to $50.8 billion in August, following a 0.2% increase in July

Sales were down in 7 of 11 subsectors in August, representing 52% of retail trade.

Lower sales at gasoline stations (-2.0%) more than offset gains at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+0.8%). Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales declined 0.4%.

In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.3%.

Receipts at gasoline stations were down 2.0%, largely reflecting lower volumes in August. After removing the effects of price changes, gasoline sales decreased 1.9%.

Lower sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (-1.2%) stemmed primarily from clothing stores (-1.1%), which saw sales decline for the first time in six months.

Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.1%) declined for the second consecutive month.

12:30
Canada: Retail Sales YoY, August 3.6%
12:30
Canada: Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m, August -0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
12:30
Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, August -0.1% (forecast 0.3%)
12:30
Canada: Consumer Price Index m / m, September -0.4% (forecast 0%)
12:30
Canada: Consumer price index, y/y, September 2.2% (forecast 2.7%)
12:30
Canada: Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y, September 1.5% (forecast 1.8%)
12:18
Company News: Procter & Gamble (PG) quarterly results beat analysts’ forecasts

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported Q1 FY 2019 earnings of $1.12 per share (versus $1.09 in Q1 FY 2018), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.09.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $16.690 bln (+0.2% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $16.451 bln.

The company also issued guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of ~$4.35-4.5 (+3-8% y/y; versus analysts' consensus estimate of $4.37) and revenues of ~$65.50-66.83 bln (-2-0% y/y; versus analysts' consensus estimate of $66.58 bln).

PG rose to $84.15 (4.87%) in pre-market trading.

12:07
Company News: Honeywell’s (HON) Q3 earnings beat analysts’ expectations

Honeywell (HON) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $2.03 per share (versus $1.74 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.99.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $10.762 bln (+6.3% y/y), generally in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $10.750 bln.

The company also issued Q4 guidance, projecting EPS of $1.85-1.90 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $2.07) and revenues of $9.6-9.7 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $11.09 bln).

HON rose to $159.75 (+2.94%) in pre-market trading.

11:53
Company News: PayPal’s (PYPL) Q3 earnings beat analysts’ forecast

PayPal (PYPL) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $0.58 per share (versus $0.46 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.54.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $3.683 bln (+13.7% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $3.663 bln.

The company also issued in-line guidance for Q4, projecting EPS of $0.65-0.67 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $0.65) and revenues of $4.195-4.275 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $4.21 bln).

It raised its FY 2018 EPS guidance to $2.38-2.40 from $2.32-2.35 and revenue guidance to $15.42-15.50 bln from $15.3-15.5 bln.

PYPL rose to $82.66 (+6.69%) in pre-market trading.

11:46
Company News: American Express’ (AXP) Q3 earnings beat analysts’ estimate

American Express (AXP) reported Q3 FY 2018 earnings of $1.88 per share (versus $1.50 in Q3 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.77.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $10.144 bln (+9.2% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $10.060 bln.

The company also issued upside guidance for FY 2018, projecting EPS of $7.30-7.40 (compared to its prior guidance of "high end of $6.90-7.30" and analysts' consensus estimate of $7.29) and revenues of +9-10% y/y (versus its prior growth guidance of "at least 9%").

AXP rose to $104.00 (+1.13%) in pre-market trading.

10:55
Italian 10-year government bond yields jumped to a fresh multiyear high Friday as a conflict with the European Union over the country's budget plans came to a fore. Yields for 10-year Italian debt were at fresh 2014 highs at 3.777%
10:54
UK PM May's Spokeswoman: PM Will Brief Around 120 Business Leaders On Latest Brexit Developments By Teleconference Later On Friday @LiveSquawk
09:21
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini says there is no government crisis because of a tax amnesty dispute

But Salvini, who is also the leader of the League's right-wing party, said that the decree containing this proposal should remain in force if they do not want to create a dangerous precedent.

While the 5-Star opposition movement has always opposed the tax amnesty bill, the League, with its traditional electoral base of self-employed businessmen, is more positively inclined to pass the bill.

On Friday, the head of the 5 Star Luigi Di Mayo said that the dispute with a partner in the coalition League over the tax amnesty bill must be sorted out.

"We will move forward. And there is absolutely no state crisis," said Salvini in an interview with Il Messaggero. But he described the clash with Di Mayo as a "big misunderstanding."

08:34
UK public sector net borrowing was £4.1 billion y/y

Borrowing (Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks) in September 2018 was £4.1 billion, £0.8 billion less than in September 2017; this was the lowest September borrowing for 11 years (since 2007).

Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (YTD) was £19.9 billion: £10.7 billion less than in the same period in 2017; the lowest year-to-date for 16 years (since 2002).

Borrowing in the financial year ending (FYE) March 2018 was £39.8 billion: £5.7 billion less than in FYE March 2017; the lowest financial year for 11 years (since FYE 2007).

This month we have introduced improvements to our treatment of Value Added Tax (VAT) refunds data; although public sector borrowing-neutral, VAT receipts have increased by £1.8 billion in the current financial YTD and £3.3 billion in FYE March 2018, with corresponding and offsetting increases in expenditure in those periods.

Debt (Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks) at the end of September 2018 was £1,789.5 billion (or 84.3% of gross domestic product (GDP)); an increase of £3.4 billion (or a decrease of 2.4 percentage points) on September 2017.

08:30
United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, September 3.26 (forecast -4.60)
08:11
Volvo: Growing Demand in Brazil, Japanese Market For Heavy-Duty Trucks Remained on Good Level

  • Lifts European Mkt Forecast For Heavy-Duty Trucks in 2018 to 315,000 From 310,000, 2019 Mkt Seen at About 300,000

  • North American Customers Renewing and Expanding Fleets, A Devt Which is Expected to Continue Into 2019

  • There is More to do to Improve Profitability and Drive Cash Flow

  • High Activity Level in N Amer Econ Translates Into Strong Freight Environment With High Transport Volumes and Good Freight Rates

  • Chinese Demand For Trucks Started to Slow Down, Sees 2019 Market For Heavy- and Medium-Duty Trucks at 1.15 Million Vehicles

08:08
In August 2018 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €24 billion

In August 2018 the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €24 billion, compared with a surplus of €19 billion in July 2018.

In the 12-month period to August 2018, the current account recorded a surplus of €379 billion (3.3% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €330 billion (3.0% of euro area GDP) in the 12-month period to August 2017.

In the financial account, euro area residents made net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities of €406 billion in the 12-month period to August 2018 (decreasing from €514 billion in the 12 months to August 2017). Non-residents' net purchases of euro area portfolio investment securities amounted to €145 billion (down from €208 billion in the 12-month period to August 2017).

08:01
Eurozone: Current account, unadjusted, bln , August 20.5 (forecast 21.4)
07:28
FTSE +17.11 7044.10 +0.24% DAX -7.09 11582.12 -0.06% CAC -1.03 5115.76 -0.02%
07:03
BoJ's Kuroda: Must be vigilant to recent protectionist moves
06:57
EU's Barnier: we don't want to impose a hard Brexit

  • Brexit accord is possible but difficult

06:45
Options levels on friday, October 19, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1617 (925)

$1.1593 (554)

$1.1559 (122)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1453

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1424 (2995)

$1.1393 (6148)

$1.1358 (3389)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 82476 contracts (according to data from October, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (6148);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3157 (802)

$1.3126 (388)

$1.3097 (621)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3029

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2966 (2183)

$1.2939 (1989)

$1.2909 (3155)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 23416 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3291);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 28759 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3155);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:37
Inflation in Japan is growing, but remains below the target level of the Bank of Japan

Annual core consumer inflation in Japan rose in September, but it remains half the central bank's 2 percent target, as the escalation of trade friction darkens economic prospects.

While the growth rates were the fastest in the last seven months, the increase was mainly due to an increase in oil spending, since the prices of most other commodities rose slightly, according to government data.

The National Consumer Price Index (CPI), which eliminates the impact of volatile spending on fresh food, rose 1.0% in September, after rising 0.9% in August.

The so-called core consumer price index, a more closely observed indicator used by the Bank of Japan, which excludes food prices and energy costs, was 0.4% in September.

Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, on Thursday offered a slightly more optimistic view on prices than three months ago, saying that the main consumer inflation "is moving towards 1%."

Rising energy prices may give the Bank of Japan a reason to slightly reconsider its inflation forecasts, although the increase may be mitigated by uncertainty about the consequences of trade friction, analysts say.

According to current forecasts made in July, the Bank of Japan expects core consumer inflation to reach 1.1% in the current fiscal year, which will end in March 2019, and accelerate to 1.5% next year.

The Japanese economy recovered in the second quarter after a decline in the first three months of this year, helped by sustainable business spending.

But the worsening trade frictions and a number of natural disasters that disrupted the supply chain overshadow the prospects for an export-dependent economy, with some analysts predicting a slight contraction in the third quarter.

06:29
Chinese GDP and industrial production miss expectations

China's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.6 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, according to rttnews.

That was in line with expectations and down from 1.8 percent in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, GDP climbed 6.5 percent - shy of estimates for 6.6 percent and down from 6.7 percent in the previous three months.

The bureau also said that industrial production climbed 5.8 percent on year in September, shy of forecasts for 6.0 percent and down from 6.1 percent in August.

Retail sales climbed an annual 9.2 percent, beating forecasts for 9.0 percent - which would have been unchanged.

Fixed asset investment gained 5.4 percent on year, topping expectations for 5.3 percent - which again would have been unchanged.

06:25
Fed's Quarles says Fed's gradual rate hike strategy still appropriate - Bloomberg
06:21
German EU Minister Roth Says Extension Of Brexit Transition Would Surely Not Fail @LiveSquawk
02:00
China: Retail Sales y/y, September 9.2% (forecast 9%)
02:00
China: Industrial Production y/y, September 5.8% (forecast 6%)
02:00
China: GDP y/y, Quarter III 6.5% (forecast 6.6%)
02:00
China: Fixed Asset Investment, September 5.4% (forecast 5.3%)

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