Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter IV | 2.3% | 2.3% |
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter IV | 0.6% | 0.6% |
07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | January | 2.7% | 2.2% |
07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | January | -0.4% | -0.2% |
07:00 | Eurozone | ECB's Peter Praet Speaks | |||
11:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | February | -1 | -3 |
15:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | February | -7.9 | -7.8 |
19:00 | U.S. | FOMC meeting minutes |
Major US stock indexes rose on Tuesday, as the rise in prices for Walmart shares offset the fall in the financial and health sectors.
The value of Walmart shares rose 2.23% after the company reported exceeding expectations for quarterly earnings. The retailer also reported that online sales soared 43% y / y in the last quarter. Strong company data brought relief to investors with investments in retail stocks, after weak retail data released last week put pressure on the segment.
The focus of market participants also continues to be trade negotiations between the United States and China. Both countries must close the deal by early March. Otherwise, additional US tariffs for Chinese goods may come into force. US President Donald Trump recently made it clear that he can extend the period by 60 days to give negotiators more time to conclude a deal.
Data on the USA also had a definite influence on the course of trading. A report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) showed that home builders felt better about the state of their industry, as lower interest rates increase consumer confidence. According to a monthly survey, the NAHB housing market index rose to 62 points from 58 points in January. Analysts had expected the index to rise only to 59 points.
Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (17 of 30). The growth leader was Walmart Inc. (WMT, + 2.23%). The outsider was NIKE, Inc. (NKE, -0.73%).
Almost all sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The raw materials sector grew the most (+ 0.9%). Only the health sector decreased (-0.2%).
At the time of closing:
Dow 25,891.32 +8.07 +0.03%
S & P 500 2,779.76 +4.16 +0.15%
Nasdaq 100 7,486.77 +14.36 +0.19%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter IV | 2.3% | 2.3% |
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter IV | 0.6% | 0.6% |
07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | January | 2.7% | 2.2% |
07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | January | -0.4% | -0.2% |
07:00 | Eurozone | ECB's Peter Praet Speaks | |||
11:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | February | -1 | -3 |
15:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | February | -7.9 | -7.8 |
19:00 | U.S. | FOMC meeting minutes |
Mester answered questions from the audience and media after her speech in Delaware.
The National
Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced its housing market index (HMI) rose
four points to 62 in February. That was the highest reading since October 2018.
Economists forecast
the HMI to increase to 59.
A reading over 50
indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI
components were higher this month. The current sales measure increased three
points to 67 in early February. At the same time, the index charting
expectations in the next six months rose five points to 68 and the indicator
measuring buyer traffic went up four points to 48.
NAHB Chairman Randy
Noel noted: “Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with
continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment. In
the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations
for the spring selling season.”
Meanwhile, NAHB Chief
Economist Robert Dietz said: “Builder confidence levels moved up in tandem with
growing consumer confidence and falling interest rates... However,
affordability remains a critical issue. Rising costs stemming from excessive
regulations, a dearth of buildable lots, a persistent labor shortage and
tariffs on lumber and other key building materials continue to make it
increasingly difficult to produce housing at affordable price points.”
U.S. stock-index fell moderately on Tuesday, as traders awaited new details to emerge from the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 21,302.65 | +20.80 | +0.10% |
Hang Seng | 28,228.13 | -118.88 | -0.42% |
Shanghai | 2,755.65 | +1.29 | +0.05% |
S&P/ASX | 6,106.90 | +17.10 | +0.28% |
FTSE | 7,173.03 | -46.44 | -0.64% |
CAC | 5,141.08 | -27.46 | -0.53% |
DAX | 11,269.94 | -29.26 | -0.26% |
Crude | $55.69 | +0.18% | |
Gold | 21,302.65 | +20.80 | +0.10% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 48.86 | 0.12(0.25%) | 4720 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,603.30 | -4.65(-0.29%) | 27771 |
American Express Co | AXP | 107.16 | -0.22(-0.20%) | 4159 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 169.6 | -0.82(-0.48%) | 97694 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.5 | 0.03(0.10%) | 12596 |
Boeing Co | BA | 417 | -0.97(-0.23%) | 12477 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 136 | -0.20(-0.15%) | 6705 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 119 | -0.35(-0.29%) | 3496 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 49.35 | -0.08(-0.16%) | 11615 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 64 | -0.27(-0.42%) | 1991 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 77.45 | -0.26(-0.33%) | 6978 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 161.74 | -0.76(-0.47%) | 35662 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 178.56 | -0.74(-0.41%) | 1387 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 12.62 | 0.34(2.77%) | 60534 |
General Electric Co | GE | 10.07 | -0.02(-0.20%) | 221360 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 38.9 | -0.19(-0.49%) | 25232 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 197.8 | -0.70(-0.35%) | 2416 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,110.65 | -3.00(-0.27%) | 1506 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 191.7 | -0.69(-0.36%) | 2671 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 51.41 | -0.25(-0.48%) | 33640 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 137.95 | -0.08(-0.06%) | 5411 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 136 | -0.38(-0.28%) | 3235 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 105.25 | -0.30(-0.28%) | 9018 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 181.42 | 1.45(0.81%) | 25282 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 79.77 | -0.04(-0.05%) | 6647 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 107.86 | -0.36(-0.33%) | 16729 |
Nike | NKE | 85.25 | -0.13(-0.15%) | 2335 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 42.5 | 0.10(0.24%) | 7401 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 98.41 | -0.07(-0.07%) | 2101 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 70.61 | -0.10(-0.14%) | 3538 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 306.56 | -1.32(-0.43%) | 27236 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 45.4 | 0.16(0.35%) | 20497 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 31.11 | -0.12(-0.38%) | 42563 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 270 | -1.13(-0.42%) | 1902 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 54.98 | -0.18(-0.33%) | 1983 |
Visa | V | 144.44 | -0.47(-0.32%) | 6986 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 102.62 | 2.63(2.63%) | 592402 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 112.5 | -0.09(-0.08%) | 3404 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 32.07 | 0.60(1.91%) | 149976 |
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; target raised to $16
McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens; target raised to $200
The UK's junior business minister Richard Harrington said that Britain would have to employ significant measures to support the economy.
"If we do leave with no deal, I do feel in the short term it is government’s role – government, the Bank of England, all the other tools that we have – to take what will be emergency action to deal with a drastic situation. In traditional terms that would mean pumping money into the economy in different ways," he said at a manufacturing conference in London.
"Now I’m not talking about financial tools, but the banks will have to step forward with additional liquidity because of the shock that it will have on the economy."
Harrington, however, noted that he did not believe there would ultimately be a no-deal Brexit as he expected that parliament would take control of the process and prevent it.
According to the UK PM Theresa May's spokesman, James Slack,
Wal-Mart (WMT) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $1.41 per share (versus $1.33 in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.33.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $137.743 bln (+1.9% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $137.630 bln.
The company also reaffirmed guidance for FY 2020, projecting EPS down low-single digits from $4.91 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.71) and net sales growth of at least 3% y/y in constant currency.
WMT rose to $104.83 (+4.84%) in pre-market trading.
A disorderly Brexit would deliver "a significant shock" to an already weakened European economy, European Central Bank (ECB) vice-president Luis de Guindos told French daily Le Monde.
According to de Guindos, financial companies were well prepared to deal with an orderly Brexit but a no-deal scenario was bound to hurt the Eurozone.
"A disorderly Brexit... would represent a significant macroeconomic shock at a time when the European economy is already weakened," de Guindos said in an interview issued on Tuesday.
Asked about a continuing slowdown in Eurozone inflation, de Guindos struck a sanguine tone.
"Even if energy prices were to fall a little in the coming months, we are confident that inflation will, over the medium term, converge towards our aim of below, but close to, 2 percent," he said.
The ECB's VP added, however, that the bank had the tools to react if necessary, including by pushing back the timing of its first post-crisis interest rate hike, offering more long-term loans to banks, or continuing to reinvest proceeds from its 2.6 trillion euro bond portfolio. But it was in no rush to do so.
"We are currently analyzing the causes of the economic slowdown in Europe, some of which are temporary," he said. "We will not take a decision until we have conducted a thorough analysis."
“The EU 27 will not reopen the withdrawal agreement. We cannot accept a time limit to the backstop or unilateral exit clause,” the Commission’s spokesman Margaritis Schinas, told a regular news briefing.
The EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will meet with the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. The meeting is set to take place at 17:30 GMT.
The UK is likely to delay Brexit and not leave the European Union (EU) in March, former EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told Sky News on Tuesday. He also added the bloc would likely accept a request to an extension to set the details of withdrawal.
“I think the most likely scenario is not to do that in March of this year. We need more... preparations,” Barroso said when asked when if he thought Brexit would happen as currently scheduled on March 29.
“Even if there was a positive deal now, from a practical point of view, it’s obvious that everything is not ready. So I think the right thing to do is to have some extension, and I believe that if the UK demands an extension of Article 50, European Union countries will naturally accept it."
Trade weakness is likely to extend into the first quarter of 2019, according to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI). The simultaneous decline of several trade-related indicators should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown should the current trade tensions remain unresolved.
The most recent WTOI reading of 96.3 is the weakest since March 2010 and below the baseline value of 100 for the index, signalling below-trend trade expansion into the first quarter. Weakness in the overall index was driven by steep declines in the component indices, which appear to be under pressure from heightened trade tensions. Indices for export orders (95.3), international air freight (96.8), automobile production and sales (92.5), electronic components (88.7) and agricultural raw materials (94.3) have shown the strongest deviations from trend, approaching or surpassing previous lows since the financial crisis. Only the index for container port throughput remained relatively buoyant at 100.3, showing on-trend growth.
Аccording to first estimates from Eurostat, in December 2018 compared with December 2017, production in construction increased by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28.
In December 2018 compared with November 2018, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector decreased by 0.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.9% in the EU28. In November 2018, production in construction grew by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28.
The average production in construction for the year 2018, compared with 2017, increased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU28.
In the euro area in December 2018, compared with November 2018, building construction fell by 0.7%, while civil engineering rose by 0.4%. In the EU28, building construction fell by 1.3%, while civil engineering remained unchanged.
In the euro area in December 2018, compared with December 2017, civil engineering rose by 5.2%, while building construction fell by 0.6%. In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 5.1%, while building construction fell by 0.9%.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 1.6 points in February 2019, and now stands at -13.4 points. Economists had expected a 1.0 points increase. Although the indicator has improved slightly, it is still in negative territory and remains well below the long-term average of 22.4 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany once again decreased considerably in February, with the corresponding indicator falling by 12.6 points to a level of 15.0 points.
The financial market experts’ assessment concerning the economic development of the Eurozone rose by 4.3 points, leaving the corresponding indicator at a level of -16.6 points. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation in the Eurozone saw a further significant decrease in February, falling by 8.3 points to a current level of minus 3.0 points compared to the previous month.
The expectations for the short-term interest rates in the Eurozone also recorded a strong decrease. The corresponding indicator dropped by 5.3 points to a level of 6.8 points.
Office for National Statistics said, there were an estimated 32.60 million people in work, 167,000 more than for July to September 2018 and 444,000 more than for a year earlier.
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.2%) and the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.
There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975.
The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was estimated at 20.9%, the lowest figure since comparable estimates began in 1971.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.4% both excluding and including bonuses compared with a year earlier.
European Central Bank said, the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €16 billion in December 2018, decreasing by around €7 billion compared with November 2018. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€16 billion), services (€11 billion) and primary income (€3 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€13 billion).
According to preliminary results for 2018 as a whole, the current account recorded a surplus of €343 billion (3.0% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €362 billion (3.2% of euro area GDP) in 2017. This decrease was due to a lower surplus for goods(down from €340 billion to €289 billion) and a marginally higher deficit for secondary income (up from €146 billion to €147 billion), which were only partly offset by higher surpluses for services (up from €102 billion to €121 billion) and primary income (up from €66 billion to €80 billion).
In the financial account, euro area residents made net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities of €107 billion in 2018 (decreasing from €641 billion in 2017). Non-residents’ net purchases of euro area portfolio investment securities amounted to €38 billion (down from €374 billion in 2017).
The UK is one of the leaders in the development of these technologies and so it is deeply disappointing that this decision has been taken now
This is a devastating decision for Swindon and the UK. This is a commercial decision based on unprecedented changes in the global market.”
Honda said it had informed employees about what it called its “proposal” to close the Swindon plant, at the end of the current model’s production lifecycle, in 2021.
Britain will leave the European Union on 29 March
Have had productive talks with European Union representatives
Global debt is at elevated levels, but isn't high enough to draw comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis just yet.
Risky corporate debt, particularly in the form of leveraged loans, has been on the rise for a number of years, with analysts suggesting the recent build up could be a significant risk to global GDP growth.
Since 2015, world private sector debt has risen by around 15% of world GDP — a level higher than it was prior to the global financial crisis, according to Oxford Economics .
Growing global debt is a major concern for the world economy because recent evidence has indicated that credit booms often end in busts of seismic proportions. A recent study found that of 175 such credit booms a staggering 70% have ended in busts, a worrying sign for the current debt buildup.
In a sample of large economies, up to 60% of GDP is in economies with "risky" corporate debt and up to 30% of GDP is in economies with risky household debt. The boom in emerging market debt is coupled with a rise in increasingly risky debt in Europe and the US.
Oxford Economics' research also suggests that the countries at the highest risk are Hong Kong, China, France, Canada, and Chile.
A new round of talks between the United States and China to resolve their trade war will take place in Washington on Tuesday, the White House said.
The talks follow a round of negotiations that ended in Beijing last week without a deal but which officials said had generated progress on contentious issues between the world’s two largest economies.
The talks are aimed at “achieving needed structural changes in China that affect trade between the United States and China. The two sides will also discuss China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of goods and services from the United States,” the White House said in a statement.
According to data from the Ifo institute, Germany's current account surplus shrank but remained by far the world's largest last year due to strong exports, that is likely to renew criticism of Chancellor Angela Merkel's fiscal policies.
Germany's current account surplus, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments, was the world's largest for the third year running in 2018 at $294 billion, followed by Japan with $173 billion, the Ifo figures showed. Russia came in third with a surplus of $116 billion.
When measured in relation to economic output, Germany's current account surplus shrank for the third year in a row, however, falling to 7.4 percent in 2018 from 7.9 percent the previous year, according to the Ifo figures.
Since 2011, Germany's current account balance has been consistently above the European Commission's indicative threshold of 6 percent of gross domestic product and the surplus reached a record high of 8.9 percent in 2015.
According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, after a significant decline in December 2018, exports in January 2019 rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent (real: +0.6 percent). Thus, the trend in exports since October 2018 shows upwards. As in the previous month, imports rose sharply by 3.4 per cent (in real terms: + 4.8 per cent) to 17.5 billion francs. They reached the level of the middle of last year. The trade surplus reached 1.4 billion francs compared to 1.79 billion francs in December
The export increase in January 2019 was broadly based. The exports of watches (+ 4.2 percent), which at the same time underlined their expansion course registered since October 2018, rose remarkably well. After two weakening months, shipments of machinery and electronics grew by 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, exports of chemical-pharmaceutical products increased by 0.7 percent, but only thanks to higher exports in the immunological products division (+ 259 million Swiss francs). Overall, the industry has been in an upward trend since October 2018. Exports of precision instruments continued their leisurely but steady growth trajectory for the fourth month in a row at + 0.4%.
The largest share of Import plus was based on the three divisions: bijouterie and jewelery (+ 174 million Swiss francs, under "Other product group"), chemical-pharmaceutical products (+ 153 million Swiss francs) and machinery and electronics (+ 130 million Swiss francs). However, the Chemicals / Pharmaceuticals sector has experienced a very volatile development in the past twelve months, with the level in January 2019 coming below the record level of a year before. Imports of vehicles also showed a very volatile development over the same period.
I am convinced that Trump will listen to his advisers in the end
most difficult part in EU-U.S. trade talks is yet to come
car tariffs have developed over time, in some cases they favour U.S., in some they favour Europe, which is why we want to reduce them all
we believe that the argument of national security for tariffs is not sustainable
Fed has been giving slightly more cautious comments
expect that's a reflection of US prices, China slow down
must carefully watch impact of Fed policy on markets, global economy
will mull easing policy further if FX moves hurt economy, prices and threaten achievement of price goal
various steps available if BOJ needs to ease more but must balance benefits, costs of steps
if BOJ were to ease further, it must take into account impact of such move on market function, financial intermediation
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1437 (4724)
$1.1407 (1297)
$1.1382 (1222)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1294
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1240 (5376)
$1.1208 (6013)
$1.1172 (3820)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 100930 contracts (according to data from February, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (6265);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3079 (4068)
$1.3024 (854)
$1.2967 (403)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2899
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2826 (753)
$1.2781 (1276)
$1.2753 (1374)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 8 is 42802 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4068);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 8 is 29918 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (1933);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.70 versus 0.70 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 15
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 66.48 | 0.29 |
WTI | 56.34 | 0.37 |
Silver | 15.78 | 0.19 |
Gold | 1326.029 | 0.39 |
Palladium | 1452.79 | 1.47 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | 381.22 | 21281.85 | 1.82 |
Hang Seng | 446.17 | 28347.01 | 1.6 |
KOSPI | 14.8 | 2210.89 | 0.67 |
ASX 200 | 23.7 | 6089.8 | 0.39 |
FTSE 100 | -17.21 | 7219.47 | -0.24 |
DAX | -0.6 | 11299.2 | -0.01 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.71286 | -0.13 |
EURJPY | 125.07 | 0.27 |
EURUSD | 1.13084 | 0.1 |
GBPJPY | 142.908 | 0.38 |
GBPUSD | 1.29216 | 0.21 |
NZDUSD | 0.6847 | -0.21 |
USDCAD | 1.32358 | -0.08 |
USDCHF | 1.00396 | -0.07 |
USDJPY | 110.593 | 0.16 |
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