CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-08-2017

Consumer confidence rose in the first half of August to its highest level since January due to a more positive outlook for the overall economy as well as more favorable personal financial prospects. The two component indices moved in opposite directions, with the Current Conditions Index falling slightly from its decade peak, and the Expectations Index posting a more substantial rebound.

As with the overall Sentiment Index, the component indices nearly regained the peak levels recorded earlier in 2017. Too few interviews were conducted following Charlottesville to assess how much it will weaken consumers' economic assessments.

EURUSD:1.1650 (EUR 1.15 млрд) 1.1700 (1.1 млрд) 1.1780 (510 млн) 1.1800 (855 млн)

USDJPY:109.00 (USD 435 млн) 110.00 (390 млн) 110.10 (400 млн) 110.20 (410 млн)

GBPUSD: 1.2800 (GBP 410 млн) 1.2950 (800 млн)

USDCAD: 1.2580 (USD 580 млн)

• We must look carefully at power our police and agencies need to combat terrorism

• We do believe a number of british nationals were caught up in the Barcelona attack, and looking into reports of missing british child

U.S. stock-index futures rose slightly on Friday, a day after the equity market demonstrated a significant drop amid concerns over President Donald Trump's ability to legislate his pro-growth agenda.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,470.41 -232.22 -1.18%

Hang Seng 27,047.57 -296.65 -1.08%

Shanghai 3,269.24 +0.8117 +0.02%

S&P/ASX 5,747.11 -32.10 -0.56%

FTSE 7,321.29 -66.58 -0.90%

CAC 5,097.53 -49.32 -0.96%

DAX 12,164.76 -38.70 -0.32%

Crude $47.29 (+0.42%)

Gold $1,301.50 (+0.70%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Wal-Mart (WMT) target raised to $77 from $76 at RBC Capital Mkts

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in July, following a 1.0% gain in June.

Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to July, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The household operations, furnishings and equipment index and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis.

Transportation costs rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in July, following a 0.6% increase in June. Gasoline prices contributed most to the gain in prices, as well as to their acceleration, rising 4.6% in the 12 months to July, after posting a 1.4% decline in June. The purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 0.2% year over year in July, after declining 0.2% the previous month. At the same time, passenger vehicle insurance premiums rose at a slower rate in the 12 months to July than they did in June.

The shelter index increased 1.3% year over year in July, after rising 1.6% in June. Homeowners' replacement costs contributed the most to the gain in prices, rising 4.1% in the 12 months to July. Prices for natural gas (+9.7%) increased at a slower year-over-year rate than they did in June. Meanwhile, the electricity index recorded its largest decrease since April 2003, down 9.1% year over year in July, following a 5.3% decline in June. The decline at the national level largely reflected legislated price declines in Ontario.

Consumer prices for food rose 0.6% on a year-over-year basis in July, matching the gain in June.

Deere (DE) reported Q3 FY 2017 earnings of $1.97 per share (versus $1.55 in Q3 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.95.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $6.833 bln (+16.6% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $6.919 bln.

DE fell to $118.00 (-4.82%) in pre-market trading.

• Says real estate, hotel, sports clubs, entertainment sectors are among sectors of irrational overseas investment

• Says of attack in Barcelona, we will not allow such murders to stop us living our way

• We will continue with our election campaign events but we will not have live music and we will have minutes of silence

• We will try to clarify as soon as possible whether germans were affected by attack in Spain

EURUSD:1.1650 (EUR 1.15bln) 1.1700 (1.1bln) 1.1780 (510m) 1.1800 (855m)

USDJPY:109.00 (USD 435m) 110.00 (390m) 110.10 (400m) 110.20 (410m)

GBPUSD: 1.2800 (GBP 410m) 1.2950 (800m)

USDCAD: 1.2580 (USD 580m)

This reflected surpluses for goods (€27.4 billion), primary income (€4.6 billion) and services (€2.2 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€13.0 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in June 2017 recorded a surplus of €336.5 billion (3.1% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €375.0 billion (3.5% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to June 2016 (see Table 1 and Chart 1). This development was due to decreases in the surpluses for goods (from €369.0 billion to €341.1 billion) and services (from €63.3 billion to €46.5 billion), and an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €120.0 billion to €144.8 billion). These were partly offset by an increase in the surplus for primary income (from €62.6 billion to €93.7 billion

• Without NAFTA trade deal, U.S. jobs would be lost to Asia

• Need to be careful on future rate hikes given warning from low bond yields

• Low 10-year bond yield says expectations of future U.S. growth are sluggish

• To shed bonds 'in near future'; would like to see more progress on inflation before consider another rate hike

• Swaps with the Bank of Japan totaled $1 mln in latest week

In July 2017 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.3% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In June 2017 the annual rate of change all over had been 2.4%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office.

Compared with the preceding month June 2017 the overall index rose by 0.2% in July 2017 (unchanged in June and -0.2% in May).

In July 2017 the price indices of all main industrial groups increased compared with July 2016: Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.7%, prices of intermediate goods by 3.0%. Energy prices rose by 1.9%, though the development of prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of electricity increased by 4.4% and prices of petroleum products by 3.1%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 6.2%. Prices of durable consumer goods and prices of capital goods increased each by 1.1%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 2.5% up on July 2016 and rose by 0.2% compared with June 2017.

Equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region were down Friday with Japan's Nikkei hitting a three-month low, weighed by overnight weakness on Wall Street following days of solid gains. Concerns about a terrorist attack in Barcelona, Spain, that left at least 13 people dead, as well as political uncertainties in the U.S. and simmering geopolitical tensions spurred investors to pull their money from riskier assets.

European stocks broke a three-day winning run Thursday, with bank shares dragged down by doubts about another U.S. interest rate hike in 2017, while the euro came under further pressure following minutes from the European Central Bank's meeting last month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday closed with its first drop of at least 1%, snapping a streak that had run for more than 60 sessions. The Dow DJIA, -1.24% finished 274 points, or 1.2%, lower at 21,750, as the broader stock market faced its biggest selloff since last week's North Korea-fueled jitters.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1852 (1963)

$1.1811 (1686)

$1.1778 (2211)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1734

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1700 (1391)

$1.1681 (2475)

$1.1657 (3197)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 126387 contracts (according to data from August, 17) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5235);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3078 (1529)

$1.3041 (3121)

$1.2980 (1074)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2888

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2829 (2189)

$1.2807 (2051)

$1.2780 (2741)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 31779 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3205);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 27722 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2741);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.85 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.