CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 17-07-2018

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17.07.2018
22:30
Commodities. Daily history for July 17’ 2018:


Raw materials

Closing price

% change

Oil

67.61

-0.66%

Gold

1,227.40

-0.99%

22:30
Stocks. Daily history for July 17’ 2018:


Index

Change items

Closing price

% change

Nikkei

+100.01

22697.36

+0.44%

TOPIX

+14.98

1745.05

+0.87%

Hang Seng

-357.98

28181.68

-1.25%

CSI 300

-22.71

3449.38

-0.65%

Euro Stoxx 50

+8.42

3457.50

+0.24%

FTSE 100

+25.88

7626.33

+0.34%

DAX

+100.52

12661.54

+0.80%

CAC 40

+13.11

5422.54

+0.24%

DJIA

+55.53

25119.89

+0.22%

S&P 500

+11.12

2809.55

+0.40%

NASDAQ

+49.40

7855.12

+0.63%

S&P/TSX

+24.51

16519.24

+0.15%

22:29
Currencies. Daily history for July 17’ 2018:


Pare

Closed

% change

EUR/USD

$1,1658

-0,44%

GBP/USD

$1,3112

-0,96%

USD/CHF

Chf1,00013

+0,33%

USD/JPY

Y112,89

+0,56%

EUR/JPY

Y131,62

+0,12%

GBP/JPY

Y148,034

-0,38%

AUD/USD

$0,7385

-0,46%

NZD/USD

$0,6779

+0,06%

USD/CAD

C$1,31946

+0,43%

20:09
Major US stock indices showed moderate increase

Major US stock indexes finished trading in positive territory, which was supported by the publication by large companies of their quarterly reports, as well as statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

Powell said that strong economic growth and stable inflation are likely to allow the Fed to continue a gradual increase in short-term interest rates. He added that he wants to keep inflation at 2%, and added that the economy is "very close" to this mark.

The focus of investors' attention was also data on the United States. The Fed said production of such goods as new trucks, airplanes, drilling rigs and consumer electronics recovered in June after the economy slowed in the spring. Industrial production in June rose by 0.6%, which compensated for a 0.5% decrease in May, production increased by 6% year on year in the second quarter and by 3.8% compared to the previous year, reflecting a large increase after the dim beginning of 2018. If you exclude utilities and mining, the production of goods by US producers increased by 0.8%. The use of capacity - a measure that tracks how efficient factories operate - has grown to 78% from 77.7%. Although this is approximately 1.8% below the historical average, the rate of use is still at a multi-year high.

Meanwhile, the confidence of builders in the market for newly built houses for one family remained unchanged at a high level of 68 points in July, according to the housing market index from the National Association of Housing Developers / Wells Fargo. "Consumer demand for single-family homes remains strong this summer, supported by sustained job growth, rising incomes and low unemployment in many parts of the country," said NAHB chairman Randy Noel.

Most components of DOW have finished trading in positive territory (21 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, + 3.56%). Outsider were shares UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, -2.73%).

Almost all sectors of S & P recorded a rise. The technological sector grew most (+ 0.8%). The largest decrease was shown by the sector of conglomerates (-0.6%).

At closing:

Dow 25,119.89 +55.53 +0.22%

S&P 500 2,809.58 +11.15 +0.40%

Nasdaq 100 7,855.12 +49.40 +0.63%

20:00
U.S.: Net Long-term TIC Flows , May 45.6 (forecast 34.3)
20:00
U.S.: Total Net TIC Flows, May 69.9 (forecast 52.3)
19:01
DJIA +0.16% 25,105.04 +40.68 Nasdaq +0.60% 7,852.88 +47.16 S&P +0.39% 2,809.44 +11.01
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +25.88 7626.33 +0.34% DAX +100.52 12661.54 +0.80% CAC 40 +13.11 5422.54 +0.24%
14:50
Powell: Too Early To Look For Effects Of Tax Bill

  • In The Near Term Things Look Good

  • Expect Tax Bill Will Support Demand For Two, Three Years

  • Decline In Labor Share Of Profits 'Very Troubling'

14:45
Fed's Powell: Outlook for Global Growth Remains Solid Despite Uncertainties in Some Places

  • Latest Inflation Figures Boosted by Gasoline, Energy Prices

  • U.S. Economy Has Grown at Solid Pace So Far This Year

  • 2Q GDP Growth Considerably Stronger Than 1Q

  • Consumer Spending Lifted by Job Gains, Rising After-Tax Incomes, Household Optimism

  • Business Investment Growing at Healthy Rate

14:43
Fed's Powell: Interest Rates, Financial Conditions Remain Favorable to Growth

  • Will Keep Close Eye on Inflation to Keep It Near 2%

  • Federal Tax, Spending Policies Likely to Continue Supporting Expansion

14:41
Fed's Powell: Risks to Economic Outlook Seen as 'Roughly Balanced'

  • Expect Strong Job Market, Near-2% Inflation to Remain for Next Several Years

  • Difficult to Predict Outcome of Trade Policy Discussions, Fiscal Policy Changes

  • Moderate Wage Growth Is Not Causing High Inflation

  • Unemployment Rate Is Low, Expected to Fall Further

14:40
Powell Says Fed Should Keep Gradually Raising Interest Rates
14:38
U.S industrial production rose 0.6 percent in June after declining 0.5 percent in May

For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 6.0 percent, its third consecutive quarterly increase. Manufacturing output moved up 0.8 percent in June. The production of motor vehicles and parts rebounded last month after truck assemblies fell sharply in May because of a disruption at a parts supplier. Factory output, aside from motor vehicles and parts, increased 0.3 percent in June. The index for mining rose 1.2 percent and surpassed the level of its previous historical peak (December 2014); the output of utilities moved down 1.5 percent. At 107.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.8 percent higher in June than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in June to 78.0 percent, a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.

14:00
U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, July 68 (forecast 68)
13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow 0.00%, Nasdaq -0.66%, S&P -0.27%
13:19
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.11%, NASDAQ futures -0.13%

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Tuesday, as tech stocks witnessed pressure after Netflix's (NFLX) Q2 membership growth numbers came in well below analysts' forecasts. In addition, investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Senate testimony.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,697.36

+100.01

+0.44%

Hang Seng

28,181.68

-357.98

-1.25%

Shanghai

2,798.62

-15.42

-0.55%

S&P/ASX

6,203.60

-37.90

-0.61%

FTSE

7,599.01

-1.44

-0.02%

CAC

5,392.80

-16.63

-0.31%

DAX

12,543.62

-17.40

-0.14%

Crude

$68.18


+0.18%

Gold

$1,240.00


+0.02%

13:15
U.S.: Industrial Production YoY , June 3.8%
13:15
U.S.: Capacity Utilization, June 78% (forecast 78.3%)
13:15
U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), June 0.6% (forecast 0.6%)
12:54
Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.4% to $57.1 billion in May, following a 1.1% decline in April

Sales rose in 14 of 21 industries, representing 64% of total manufacturing sales. The chemical, machinery, and wood product industries accounted for most of the gains in May. The transportation equipment industry posted the largest decline.

In constant dollars, manufacturing sales were up 0.9%.

Sales in the chemical industry were up for the second consecutive month, rising 6.2% to $4.7 billion in May on higher volumes of products sold. There were widespread gains in most chemical sub-industries, particularly in the pesticide, fertilizer and other agricultural chemical manufacturing industry.

Machinery sales rose 8.9% to $3.3 billion, following three consecutive monthly declines. Higher sales of other general-purpose machinery as well as commercial and service machinery led the gains.

12:45
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

57.01

-0.13(-0.23%)

4153

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,810.70

-11.79(-0.65%)

74062

Apple Inc.

AAPL

190

-0.91(-0.48%)

79819

AT&T Inc

T

31.85

-0.05(-0.16%)

14220

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

12.8

-0.02(-0.16%)

2509

Boeing Co

BA

358.5

2.40(0.67%)

12534

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

137.5

-0.58(-0.42%)

8795

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

42.43

-0.07(-0.16%)

9004

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

69.52

0.06(0.09%)

15378

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

134.9

-1.37(-1.01%)

2159

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

82.47

-0.02(-0.02%)

632

Facebook, Inc.

FB

204.66

-2.57(-1.24%)

179160

Ford Motor Co.

F

10.88

0.03(0.28%)

17732

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

16.8

0.03(0.18%)

28461

Goldman Sachs

GS

232.8

1.36(0.59%)

261473

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,175.00

-8.86(-0.75%)

3156

Home Depot Inc

HD

198.6

-0.28(-0.14%)

820

Intel Corp

INTC

51.31

-0.70(-1.35%)

56535

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

145.88

0.42(0.29%)

428

International Paper Company

IP

52.35

-0.11(-0.21%)

600

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

126.3

1.61(1.29%)

95824

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

110.45

-0.13(-0.12%)

30614

McDonald's Corp

MCD

158.73

-0.05(-0.03%)

492

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

62.49

-0.10(-0.16%)

613

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

104.85

-0.06(-0.06%)

40474

Nike

NKE

77.5

-0.25(-0.32%)

1118

Pfizer Inc

PFE

37.4

0.02(0.05%)

2793

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

50.81

-0.13(-0.26%)

4944

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

307.5

-2.60(-0.84%)

42007

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

128.2

0.01(0.01%)

302

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

43.77

-0.49(-1.11%)

75178

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

252.5

-4.48(-1.74%)

21710

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

51.5

-0.09(-0.17%)

640

Visa

V

138.4

-0.06(-0.04%)

7744

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

87.72

0.08(0.09%)

1225

Walt Disney Co

DIS

110.3

0.10(0.09%)

3385

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

37.25

-0.30(-0.80%)

2901

12:42
Downgrades before the market open

Intel (INTC) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI

Caterpillar (CAT) removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman; remains Buy rated

Deere (DE) removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman; remains Buy rated

12:30
Canada: Manufacturing Shipments (MoM), May 1.4% (forecast 0.5%)
11:59
Company News: Goldman Sachs (GS) quarterly results beat analysts’ estimates

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported Q2 FY 2018 earnings of $5.98 per share (versus $3.95 in Q2 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $4.65.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $9.402 bln (+19.2% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $8.743 bln.

GS fell to $228.95 (-1.08%) in pre-market trading.

11:31
UK will be leaving EU customs union; Brexit vote 'legitimate democratic exercise': Govt spokesman - Bloomberg
11:01
Company News: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported Q2 FY 2018 earnings of $2.10 per share (versus $1.83 in Q2 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.07.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $20.830 bln (+10.6% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $20.390 bln.

The company also issued guidance for FY 2018, narrowing EPS of $8.07-8.17 to $8.00-8.20 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $8.12) and lowering revenues to $80.5-81.3 bln from $81.0-81.8 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $81.37 bln).

JNJ fell to $123.10 (-1.28%) in pre-market trading.

10:49
Company News: UnitedHealth (UNH) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

UnitedHealth (UNH) reported Q2 FY 2018 earnings of $3.14 per share (versus $2.46 in Q2 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $3.04.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $56.086 bln (+12.1% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $56.097 bln.

The company also raised guidance for FY 2018, projecting EPS of $12.50-12.75 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $12.63, and up from prior guidance of $12.40-12.65.

UNH closed Monday's trading session at $256.98 (-0.66%).

09:11
Italian CPI lower than expected in June

In June 2018, the Italian consumer price index increased by 0.2% on monthly basis and by 1.3% compared with June 2017 (+1.0% in May 2018). The flash estimate was +1.4%.

The acceleration of the growth on annual basis of All items index was mainly due to prices of Non-regulated energy products (from +5.3% to +9.4%) and, to a lesser extent, of Unprocessed food (+2.4% in May to +3.4%) and of Services related to transport (from +1.7% to +2.9%).

As a consequence, inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) was +0.8% (as in the previous month) and inflation excluding energy was +1.0% (from +0.8% in May).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rises of prices of Non-regulated energy products (+2.3%) and of Services related to transport (+2.2).

09:01
Company News: Netflix (NFLX) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates

Netflix (NFLX) reported Q2 FY 2018 earnings of $0.85 per share (versus $0.15 in Q2 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.79.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $3.907 bln (+40.3% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $3.938 bln.

The report also revealed Netflix missed its Q2 subscriber addition guidance. "This Q2, we over-forecasted global net additions which amounted to 5.2 mln versus a forecast of 6.2 mln and flat compared to Q2 a year ago, as acquisition growth was slightly lower than we projected," it said in the report.

The company issued downside guidance for Q3, projecting EPS of $0.68 versus (analysts' consensus estimate of $0.71), revenues of $3.988 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $4.12 bln) and global net adds of 5.0 mln (versus ~5.6 mln estimates).

08:36
UK average weekly earnings in line with expectations in May

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.7% excluding bonuses, and by 2.5% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, and by 0.2% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

08:34
UK unemployment rate stable at 4.2% in May

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between December 2017 to February 2018 and March to May 2018, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people decreased and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also decreased.

There were 32.40 million people in work, 137,000 more than for December 2017 to February 2018 and 388,000 more than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was 4.2%, down from 4.5% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

08:30
United Kingdom: Claimant count , June 7.8 (forecast -2.1)
08:30
United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , May 2.5% (forecast 2.5%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, May 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
08:30
United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, May 4.2% (forecast 4.2%)
07:30
Open: FTSE -0.63 7599.82 -0.01% DAX +3.87 12564.89 +0.03% CAC -7.14 5402.29 -0.13%
07:01
Options levels on tuesday, July 17, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1828 (2271)

$1.1809 (2648)

$1.1779 (155)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1730

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1658 (3204)

$1.1622 (3168)

$1.1581 (3936)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 85684 contracts (according to data from July, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (5193);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3334 (658)

$1.3305 (667)

$1.3281 (105)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3255

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3208 (1919)

$1.3188 (1542)

$1.3162 (1641)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 13 is 22263 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3217);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 25546 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (2127);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 16.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:54
So the UK government has narrowly avoided a defeat - by three votes! - from Tory Remainers over an amendment that it only backed in order to avoid a defeat from rebel Brexiteers @elashton
06:48
RBNZ measure of core inflation 1.7% y/y (1.6% prior). NZD/USD trading around 65 pips higher on the asian session
06:46
CPI in New Zealand last quarter had a bit of zip in core measures, says ANZ

But not enough to get the market excited about an imminent change in monetary policy. "If inflation materializes as we expect, the RBNZ will eventually increase" rates, "but that's a long way away yet and any moves will be gradual."

06:44
RBA minutes: Board saw "no strong case" for a near-term move in interest rates

  • Progress on unemployment and inflation likely to be gradual

  • AUD had fallen "a little" but still within range of past two years

  • Board noted household income growth had been subdued for past couple of years

  • Households with high debt more vulnerable to economic shocks

  • Downside risks to global growth had increased, trade tensions harmful

  • Rate moves had larger impact on disposable incomes for those with high debt

  • RBA noted rising funding costs at local banks, not clear how long this would last

06:40
As I said today and many times before, “I have GREAT confidence in MY intelligence people”...@realDonaldTrump

"As I said today and many times before, "I have GREAT confidence in MY intelligence people." However, I also recognize that in order to build a brighter future, we cannot exclusively focus on the past - as the world's two largest nuclear powers, we must get along!".

06:35
New Zealand CPI lower than expected q/q

Inflation rates for the June 2018 quarter:

  • quarter: 0.4 percent

  • annual: 1.5 percent.

  • From the June 2017 quarter to the June 2018 quarter, the CPI increased 1.5 percent.

  • Housing and household utilities increased 3.1 percent; rentals for housing were up 2.5 percent; and construction was up 3.9 percent.

  • Transport increased 2.0 percent, with prices for petrol up 10 percent.

  • Miscellaneous goods and services increased 3.1 percent, with insurance prices up 5.7 percent.

  • In the June 2018 quarter compared with the March 2018 quarter, the CPI rose 0.4 percent (up 0.3 percent with seasonal adjustment).

  • Housing and household utilities rose 0.9 percent, influenced by higher prices for rents (up 0.8 percent) and construction (up 1.1 percent).

  • Food prices rose 0.8 percent, influenced by seasonally higher prices for vegetables (up 7.0 percent).

  • Recreation and culture prices fell 1.4 percent, influenced by lower prices for audio-visual equipment (down 15 percent) and subscriber TV (down 7.2 percent).

06:27
Futures: Eurostoxx -0,1% DAX 0,0% FTSE +0,1% CAC 40 0,0%

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