CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-09-2017

Consumer confidence edged downward in early September due to concerns over the outlook for the national economy. Consumers' assessments of current economic conditions improved, however, with the Current Conditions Index reaching the highest level since November of 2000. The two hurricanes had a greater impact on expected economic conditions. Across all interviews in early September, 9% spontaneously mentioned concerns that Harvey, Irma, or both, would have a negative impact on the overall economy. Among those who mentioned the hurricanes, the Sentiment Index was 80.2, while among those who did not spontaneously mention either hurricane, the Sentiment Index remained unchanged from last month at 96.8.

EURUSD: 1.1750 (EUR 385 млн) 1.1800 (380 млн) 1.1900 (1.87 млрд) 1.2000 (2.2 млрд)

USDJPY: 108.20 (USD 570 млн) 109.00 (340 млн) 109.50 (360 млн) 110.00 (1.15 млрд) 110.50 (950 млн) 110.65 (765 млн)

GBPUSD: 1.3400 (GBP 210 млн)

EURGBP: 0.8950 (EUR 435 млн)

AUDUSD: 0.8050 (AUD 350 млн)

NZDUSD: 0.7275 (NZD 385 млн)

USDCAD: 1.2200 (USD 825 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures were slightly lower on Friday, reacting to the latest North Korean provocation and weaker-than-expected U.S. data on the retail sales and industrial production in August.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,909.50 +102.06 +0.52%

Hang Seng 27,807.59 +30.39 +0.11%

Shanghai 3,353.67 -17.76 -0.53%

S&P/ASX 5,695.02 -43.65 -0.76%

FTSE 7,201.26 -94.13 -1.29%

CAC 5,210.64 -14.56 -0.28%

DAX 12,530.32 -10.13 -0.08%

Crude $49.97 (+0.16%)

Gold $1,327.80 (-0.11%)

Industrial production declined 0.9 percent in August following six consecutive monthly gains. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 3/4 percentage point. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent; storm-related effects appear to have reduced the rate of change in factory output in August about 3/4 percentage point. The manufacturing industries with the largest estimated storm-related effects were petroleum refining, organic chemicals, and plastics materials and resins.

The output of mining fell 0.8 percent in August, as Hurricane Harvey temporarily curtailed drilling, servicing, and extraction activity for oil and natural gas. The output of utilities dropped 5.5 percent, as unseasonably mild temperatures, particularly on the East Coast, reduced the demand for air conditioning.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Coca-Cola (KO) initiated with a Neutral at Macquarie; target $47

Procter & Gamble (PG) initiated with a Outperform at Macquarie

FedEx (FDX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 24.4. The new orders index rose four points to 24.9 and the shipments index climbed four points to 16.2, pointing to ongoing solid gains in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders increased, and delivery times continued to lengthen. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. Both input prices and selling prices rose at a faster pace than last month. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that firms remained optimistic about future conditions.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 3.2 percent above August 2016. Total sales for the June 2017 through August 2017 period were up 3.2 percent from the same period a year ago.

The June 2017 to July 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.3 percent. Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent from July 2017, and up 3.3 percent from last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from August 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 7.5 percent from last year

• Says greek deposits recovery only moderate

• Says risk remains that Brexit will have bigger impact on UK economy but for now wage pressure is gently building

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in July 2017 was €177.7 billion, an increase of 6.1% compared with July 2016 (€167.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €154.6 bn, a rise of 8.2% compared with July 2016 (€142.8 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €23.2 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July 2017, compared with +€24.8 bn in July 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €145.6 bn in July 2017, up by 5.6% compared with July 2016.

Hourly labour costs rose by 1.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 2.2% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2017, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the first quarter of 2017, hourly labour costs increased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The two main components of labour costs are wages & salaries and non-wage costs. In the euro area, wages & salaries per hour worked grew by 2.0% and the non-wage component by 0.8%, in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. In the first quarter of 2017, the annual changes were +1.3% and +1.6% respectively. In the EU28, hourly wages & salaries rose by 2.4% and the non-wage component by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, annual changes were +1.5% and +1.9% respectively.

EURUSD: 1.1750 (EUR 385m) 1.1800 (380m) 1.1900 (1.87bln) 1.2000 (2.2bln)

USDJPY: 108.20 (USD 570m) 109.00 (340m) 109.50 (360m) 110.00 (1.15bln) 110.50 (950m) 110.65 (765m)

GBPUSD: 1.3400 (GBP 210m)

EURGBP: 0.8950 (EUR 435m)

AUDUSD: 0.8050 (AUD 350m)

NZDUSD: 0.7275 (NZD 385m)

USDCAD: 1.2200 (USD 825m)

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2016 (1354)

$1.1993 (1559)

$1.1972 (494)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1915

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1867 (3082)

$1.1838 (4628)

$1.1805 (2614)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 95386 contracts (according to data from September, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (4628);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3530 (1829)

$1.3491 (2523)

$1.3457 (2201)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3421

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3329 (56)

$1.3304 (251)

$1.3275 (178)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 27230 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2523);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 28353 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2498);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• North Korean missile flew over northern Japan before landing in pacific ocean, did not pose threat to Guam

European stocks on Thursday ended a choppy session slightly higher, but saw gains capped as the Bank of England hinted rates could rise in coming months, and as disappointing data from China raised questions about the strength of the world's second-largest economy. Traders also appeared cautious about taking on more risk after the latest threats from North Korea.

The Dow closed at a record for a third session in a row on Thursday even as the broader market sagged on the back of weak retail shares. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.11% shed 2.75 points, or 0.1%, to end at 2,495.62. Consumer sectors were the hardest hit, with Tiffany & Co. down 4.8%, and Kroger Co. KR, -2.16% falling 2.2%.

Asian stocks were broadly lower following North Korea's latest missile launch over Japan, but equities there rose slightly even as the yen strengthened. Moves across markets were largely modest early on, echoing how Asian market participants across asset classes have largely reacted to most of North Korea's missile launches this year. Although there was a brief selloff following the country's nuclear-bomb test earlier this month.