CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-12-2018

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13.12.2018
23:50
Japan: BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index, Quarter IV 24 (forecast 21)
23:50
Japan: BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index, Quarter IV 19 (forecast 17)
23:30
Schedule for today, Friday, December 14, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI December 52.2 52.3
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y November 5.9% 5.9%
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y November 8.6% 9%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment November 5.7% 5.8%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.5% 4.2%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.4% 2.9%
08:15 France Manufacturing PMI December 50.8 50.7
08:15 France Services PMI December 55.1 54.8
08:30 Germany Services PMI December 53.3 53.4
08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI December 51.8 52
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI December 51.8 51.9
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI December 53.4 53.5
13:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY November 4.6%  
13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto November 0.7% 0.2%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales November 0.8% 0.2%
14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization November 78.4% 78.5%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) November 0.1% 0.3%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY November 4.1%  
15:00 U.S. Business inventories October 0.3% 0.5%
18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count December 877  
21:30
New Zealand: Business NZ PMI, November 53.5
21:20
Major US stock indices mostly decreased

Major US stock markets ended the session mainly in the red, as the rally caused by the progress in the US-China trade negotiations subsided. Pressure on the indices also had a drop in the quotes of the conglomerate sector.

Market participants also analyzed data on the US labor market, which showed that the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell, and was the strongest in 3.5 years. This may allay concerns about the fact that the recent increase in the number of applications signaled weak spots in the labor market. According to the report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined by 27,000 during the week of December 2–8, averaging 206,000 with seasonal adjustments. -year minimum, reached in September. It was expected that the number of applications will be 225,000.

Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (17 of 30). The growth leader was the shares of The Procter & Gamble Company (PG, + 2.67%). The outsider was NIKE, Inc. (NKE, -1.75%).

Most sectors of the S & P finished trading in the red. The most conglomerate sector fell (-1.0%). The growth leader was the utility sector (+ 0.8%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 24,597.38 +70.11 + 0.29%

S & P 500 2,650.54  -0.53 -0.02%

Nasdaq 100 7,070.33  -27.98 -0.39%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, December 14, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI December 52.2 52.3
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y November 5.9% 5.9%
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y November 8.6% 9%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment November 5.7% 5.8%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) October -2.5% 4.2%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.4% 2.9%
08:15 France Manufacturing PMI December 50.8 50.7
08:15 France Services PMI December 55.1 54.8
08:30 Germany Services PMI December 53.3 53.4
08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI December 51.8 52
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI December 51.8 51.9
09:00 Eurozone Services PMI December 53.4 53.5
13:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY November 4.6%  
13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto November 0.7% 0.2%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales November 0.8% 0.2%
14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization November 78.4% 78.5%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) November 0.1% 0.3%
14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY November 4.1%  
15:00 U.S. Business inventories October 0.3% 0.5%
18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count December 877  
20:00
DJIA +0.15% 24,564.40 +37.13 Nasdaq -0.53% 7,060.65 -37.66 S&P -0.15% 2,647.10 -3.97
19:00
U.S.: Federal budget , November -205 (forecast -188)
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -2.69 6877.50 -0.04% DAX -4.73 10924.70 -0.04% CAC 40 -12.53 4896.92 -0.26%
15:10
Most economists in a recent survey view a trade war between the U.S. and China as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019 - WSJ

That is a sign that forecasters view political uncertainty and the potential for new punitive tariff barriers as greater risks than macroeconomic or financial disruptions.

Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3%, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20% cited financial market disruptions and 12.7% pointed to a slowdown in business investment.



14:36
Draghi: QE is part of ECB's permanent toolbox
14:36
The ECB lowered its 2018 forecast for gross domestic product growth in the eurozone by 0.1 percentage point to 1.9% and shaved its 2020 forecast by a similar amount to 1.7%

"The decision to end QE now is more about politics than economics," because it will please ECB officials who have been critical of the bank's bond purchases, particularly its German contingent, said Paul Diggle, an economist with Aberdeen Standard Investments. "If you squint hard enough, the economic data can just about justify the decision."

14:35
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.30%, S&P +0.39%
14:27
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.29%, NASDAQ futures +0.59%

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Thursday, as investors digested the recent market volatility and took a wait-and-see approach as the United States and China make steps to resolve  their bitter trade dispute.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,816.19

+213.44

+0.99%

Hang Seng

26,524.35

+337.64

+1.29%

Shanghai

2,634.05

+31.90

+1.23%

S&P/ASX

5,661.60

+8.10

+0.14%

FTSE

6,866.40

-13.79

-0.20%

CAC

4,904.81

-4.64

-0.09%

DAX

10,947.78

+18.35

+0.17%

Crude

$50.72


-0.84%

Gold

$1,246.90


-0.25%

14:00
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

54.2

0.25(0.46%)

1026

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,663.00

19.76(1.20%)

75948

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

36.8

0.21(0.57%)

1600

Apple Inc.

AAPL

170.2

1.57(0.93%)

242016

AT&T Inc

T

30.07

0.37(1.25%)

159240

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.73

0.13(0.96%)

42487

Boeing Co

BA

327

4.97(1.54%)

15814

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

125

1.76(1.43%)

5714

Chevron Corp

CVX

116.99

1.52(1.32%)

764

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

47.6

0.51(1.08%)

29215

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

56.92

0.70(1.25%)

31655

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

78.2

1.52(1.98%)

62044

Facebook, Inc.

FB

142.84

0.76(0.53%)

151352

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.63

0.09(1.05%)

76307

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

10.93

0.17(1.58%)

34500

General Electric Co

GE

6.9

0.14(2.07%)

691364

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

35.19

0.50(1.44%)

882

Goldman Sachs

GS

178.31

1.51(0.85%)

4781

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,062.99

11.24(1.07%)

7656

Home Depot Inc

HD

174

1.79(1.04%)

974

Intel Corp

INTC

48.15

0.77(1.63%)

77797

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

122.1

1.21(1.00%)

10724

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

147.47

0.97(0.66%)

64249

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

101.47

1.10(1.10%)

57411

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

110.28

1.69(1.56%)

267970

Nike

NKE

73.98

0.41(0.56%)

23502

Pfizer Inc

PFE

44.27

0.26(0.59%)

3258

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

94.16

0.25(0.27%)

18332

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

65.86

-0.06(-0.09%)

9146

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

369.77

3.01(0.82%)

37314

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.6

0.06(0.12%)

2310

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

35.02

0.57(1.65%)

101854

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

271.83

4.61(1.73%)

758

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

58

-0.85(-1.44%)

50571

Visa

V

138.6

1.79(1.31%)

45223

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

94.07

0.22(0.23%)

32680

Walt Disney Co

DIS

113

1.03(0.92%)

3094

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

27.6

0.75(2.79%)

48078

13:58
Upgrades before the market open

Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

General Electric (GE) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; target $6

13:48
U.S import and export price index declined more than expected in November

U.S. import prices declined 1.6 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.5-percent rise the previous month. The November drop was primarily led by lower fuel prices.
The price index for U.S. exports fell 0.9 percent in November, after advancing 0.5 percent in October.

Prices for U.S. exports declined 0.9 percent in November, the largest 1-month decrease since the index fell 0.9 percent in January 2016 and 1.1 percent in December 2015. Lower nonagricultural prices in November more than offset rising agricultural prices. Despite the November decline, U.S. export prices increased 1.8 percent over the past year.




13:46
Draghi: Headline inflation likely to decrease in the coming months, mostly due to oil

  • Balance of risks is moving to the downside

  • Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted but domestic pressures strengthening

  • Underlying inflation to increase in medium term

  • Blames softer external demand and trade for softer growth outlook

  • Governments need to rebuild fiscal buffers

13:39
Draghi: Underlying strength fuels confidence in inflation

  • Reinvestment and enhanced rate guidance to provide support

  • Sees somewhat slower growth momentum ahead

*via forexlive
13:35
ECB's Draghi: Inflation coming in weaker than expected

  • Weaker growth reflects softer external demand

  • Inflation will continue to converge

13:33
Canadian new housing prices were unchanged on a national basis for a third month in a row

In October, new home buyers in 16 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed saw flat or lower prices. Prices at the national level have remained largely unchanged since November 2017.

New home buyers in Toronto saw prices fall 0.1% in October, while prices were flat in Vancouver. Tighter mortgage regulations as well as provincial interventions, mostly targeting the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, have likely contributed to the slowdown in new home prices in these historically expensive CMAs.

The pace of new home construction has also slowed in both CMAs. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, single-family housing starts were down year to date in October, compared with the same period in 2017 in both Toronto (-40.3%) and Vancouver (-11.9%). Single-family homes include row, single and semi-detached houses.


13:32
U.S initial jobless claims lower than expected last week

In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 228,000 to 228,500.

13:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, October 0.1%
13:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, December 1661 (forecast 1650)
13:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, December 206 (forecast 225)
13:30
U.S.: Import Price Index, November -1.6% (forecast -0.9%)
13:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, October 0% (forecast 0%)
12:46
ECB holds interest rates unchanged, as expected

“At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term”.

12:45
Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0% (forecast 0%)
10:40
ECB is said to revise economic growth, inflation slightly lower - Bloomberg

  • ECB is said to lower 2019 inflation forecast in updated outlook

10:38
IEA Says OPEC Crude Output Climbed 100,000 B/D in November

  • Saudi Arabia, UAE Crude Output Hit Historic Highs in Nov

  • Says Saudi Output Jumped to 11.06 Million B/D in Nov

  • Total Global Supply Fell in Nov. Amid Outages in North Sea & Canada

  • IEA Maintains Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for 2018, 2019

  • OECD Oil Stocks Rose to 2.872 Billion Barrels in October

10:32
SNB holds the interest rate unchanged at -0.75%

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Since the monetary policy assessment of September 2018, the Swiss franc has depreciated slightly on a trade-weighted basis.

This development is primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The franc is virtually unchanged against the euro. Overall, the Swiss franc is still highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market continues to be fragile. The negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remain essential. These measures keep the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments low and reduce upward pressure on the currency.

10:30
Swiss Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.4%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

You will find further information such as tables and graphs in the press releases in German, French and Italian. The English version only includes the lead of the press release.


08:31
Switzerland: SNB Interest Rate Decision, -0.75% (forecast -0.75%)
08:31
Switzerland: SNB Interest Rate Decision, -0.75% (forecast -0.75%)
08:15
Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, y/y, November 1.4%
08:06
U.S Treasury prices fell Wednesday, pushing yields modestly higher, after investors cut back buying of U.S. government paper as stocks rose and Italian debt surged on fading jitters around geopolitical and trade tensions

The selloff follows the release of key inflation data that should still keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike in its upcoming December meeting.

The 10-year Treasury note yield was up 2.7 basis points to 2.908%, cobbling together its third straight session of while the 2-year note yield was flat at 2.774%. The 30-year bond yield was up 1.8 basis points to 3.147%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.



08:04
Theresa May has won the confidence ballot by Conservative MPs @SkyNewsBreak
08:03
In November, the French Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back by 0.2% over a month, after a 0.1% rebound in October

In November 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back by 0.2% over a month, after a 0.1% rebound in October. This downturn resulted from that in services prices (−0.3% after a stability in October) and in energy prices (−0.7% after +1.8%). Food prices dropped by 0.2%, as in the previous month, the downturn in fresh food prices being offset by higher prices in other food products. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices rose by 0.1% over a month after a stability in October.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices edged down by 0.1% over a month, after a 0.1% increase in October.

Year on year, consumer prices increased by 1.9% in November, after +2.2% in October. This drop in inflation came from a year-on-year slowdown in energy, services, food and tobacco prices, which was barely offset by a lesser fall in manufactured product prices.


08:01
Consumer prices in Germany were 2.3% higher in November 2018 than in November 2017

The inflation rate – measured by the consumer price index – thus decreased slightly (October 2018: +2.5%). Compared with October 2018, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in November 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 29 November 2018.

The increase of energy product prices again had a considerable effect on the inflation rate. Energy prices rose 9.3% in November 2018 on November 2017. The rise in energy prices has continuously accelerated since March 2018. In October 2018, the rate of energy price increase had been +8.9%. From November 2017 to November 2018, price rises were recorded especially for heating oil (+40.7%) and motor fuels (+15.0%). The price increases for other energy products were much smaller (for example, charges for central and district heating: +3.7%; electricity: +1.0%). Gas prices were down on a year earlier (-1.4%). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.4% in November 2018; excluding the prices of mineral oil products, it would also have been +1.4%.


08:01
France: CPI, y/y, November 1.9% (forecast 1.9%)
08:00
Options levels on thursday, December 13, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1518 (661)

$1.1489 (320)

$1.1475 (136)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1379

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1346 (3323)

$1.1312 (6688)

$1.1274 (4659)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 68119 contracts (according to data from December, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (7188);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2853 (263)

$1.2830 (113)

$1.2792 (180)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2659

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2592 (2111)

$1.2570 (1369)

$1.2545 (1297)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 31328 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3841);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 29658 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2794);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:45
France: CPI, m/m, November -0.2% (forecast -0.2%)
07:16
Germany: CPI, m/m, November 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
07:00
Germany: CPI, y/y , November 0.1% (forecast 2.3%)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 60.25 -0.63
WTI 51.34 -1.52
Silver 14.71 1.17
Gold 1245.344 0.2
Palladium 1262.51 1.4
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 454.73 21602.75 2.15
Hang Seng 415.04 26186.71 1.61
KOSPI 29.6 2082.57 1.44
ASX 200 77.6 5653.5 1.39
FTSE 100 73.25 6880.19 1.08
DAX 148.92 10929.43 1.38
Dow Jones 157.03 24527.27 0.64
S&P 500 14.29 2651.07 0.54
NASDAQ Composite 66.48 7098.31 0.95
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72191 0.26
EURJPY 128.764 0.35
EURUSD 1.13683 0.45
GBPJPY 142.99 0.99
GBPUSD 1.26246 1.1
NZDUSD 0.68568 -0.23
USDCAD 1.335 -0.3
USDCHF 0.99338 0.03
USDJPY 113.261 -0.1

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