CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-10-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +73.45 20954.72 +0.35%

TOPIX +3.32 1700.13 +0.20%

Hang Seng +69.46 28459.03 +0.24%

CSI 300 +10.26 3912.95 +0.26%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1.85 3605.54 -0.05%

FTSE 100 +22.43 7556.24 +0.30%

DAX +12.21 12982.89 +0.09%

CAC 40 -1.60 5360.81 -0.03%

DJIA -31.88 22841.01 -0.14%

S&P 500 -4.31 2550.93 -0.17%

NASDAQ -12.04 6591.51 -0.18%

S&P/TSX -58.19 15742.21 -0.37%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1831 -0,25%

GBP/USD $1,3261 +0,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,97508 +0,19%

USD/JPY Y112,27 -0,20%

EUR/JPY Y132,83 -0,45%

GBP/JPY Y148,887 +0,09%

AUD/USD $0,7821 +0,43%

NZD/USD $0,7130 +0,60%

USD/CAD C$1,24781 +0,18%

00:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI September 57.9

03:30 Australia RBA Financial Stability Review

05:30 China Trade Balance, bln September 41.99 39.5

09:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) September 1.8% 1.8%

09:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) September 0.1% 0.1%

10:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y September 0.6%

10:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m September 0.3%

12:30 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

15:30 U.S. Retail sales September -0.2% 1.7%

15:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY September 3.2%

15:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto September 0.2% 0.3%

15:30 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

15:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m September 0.2% 0.2%

15:30 U.S. CPI, m/m September 0.4% 0.6%

15:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y September 1.7% 1.8%

15:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y September 1.9% 2.3%

17:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) October 95.1 95.0

17:00 U.S. Business inventories August 0.2% 0.7%

17:15 Eurozone ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks

17:25 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

18:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

20:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count October 748

20:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

21:00 U.S. Federal budget September -108.0 6

On Thursday, the major US stock indexes finished trading below the zero mark, as the growth of the industrial goods sectors and conglomerate sectors was offset by the financial results of JPMorgan and Citigroup, which did not inspire investors.

Meanwhile, some support for the market was provided by data on the United States. The number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits fell during the second consecutive week in early October, although recent hurricanes continued to affect data in the South of the United States. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, the indicator of layoffs in the US, decreased by 15,000 to 243,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending October 7, the Ministry of Labor said. Economists were expecting 251,000 new applications last week.

At the same time, the producer price index in September increased by 0.4%, which was in line with the forecast of economists. Another measure preferred by economists, the basic PPI, increased by 0.2%. The basic PPI excludes food, energy and trade margins. The increase in the PPI pushed the 12-month rate of wholesale inflation to 2.6% (maximum since February 2012). Most of the increase in wholesale prices in September was due to the increase in gasoline prices after Hurricane Harvey violated the work of several large oil refineries. Another growth factor is a higher margin for retailers

Oil prices have partially recovered after the publication of data on oil products from the US Department of Energy, but continue to show a decline of more than 1% against the backdrop of today's report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The US Energy Ministry reported that last week oil reserves fell sharply, exceeding forecasts of analysts, while gasoline stocks increased significantly. According to the data, in the week of September 30 - October 6, oil reserves fell by 2.747 million barrels, to 462.216 million barrels. Analysts had expected a fall of 1.991 million barrels.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (20 of 30). Outsider were shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, -1.69%). Caterpillar Inc. was the growth leader. (CAT, + 1.05%).

The S & P sector showed mixed dynamics. The largest decrease was in the services sector (-0.5%). The industrial goods sector grew most (+ 0.3%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.14% 22.841.01 -31.88

Nasdaq -0.18% 6,591.51 -12.04

S & P -0.17% 2.550.93 -4.31

EURUSD: 1.1725 (EUR 460m) 1.1790-00 (1.75bln) 1.1870 (320m) 1.1885-90 (820m)

USDJPY: 112.00 (USD 1.8bln) 112.40 (1.13bln) 112.50 (990m) 112.60 (650m) 113.00-05 (2.69bln)

GBPUSD: 1.3200 (GBP 510m) 1.3350 (305m) 1.3400 (260m)

AUDUSD: Ntg of note

U.S. stock-index futures were lower on Thursday as Q3 earnings season gets under way.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,954.72 +73.45 +0.35%

Hang Seng 28,459.03 +69.46 +0.24%

Shanghai 3,387.65 -0.6375 -0.02%

S&P/ASX 5,794.47 +22.32 +0.39%

FTSE 7,559.56 +25.75 +0.34%

CAC 5,350.33 -12.08 -0.23%

DAX 12,965.39 -5.29 -0.04%

Crude $50.57 (-1.42%)

Gold $1,295.20 (+0.49%)

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 260,000 to 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 257,500, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 268,250 to 267,000. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria impacted this week's claims.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Alphabet (GOOG) target raised to $970 at Pivotal Research Group

Honeywell (HON) target raised to $160 from $152 at Argus

Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim

Wal-Mart (WMT) removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman

Despite growth in some markets, Canadians saw little overall change in new home prices in August.

Prices for new homes were unchanged in 15 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed, including what have been Canada's two hottest housing markets-Toronto and Vancouver. For Toronto, this was the third consecutive month of flatness. In Vancouver, this was the first month of no price change, following five consecutive monthly increases.

Nationally, new home prices edged up 0.1% in August, primarily reflecting increases in the CMAs of London (+1.0%), Kelowna (+0.9%) and Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario part (+0.4%). Builders in all three CMAs tied the rise to improved market conditions. In Ottawa-Gatineau, new phases of development also contributed to higher prices.

Prices were down in St. John's (-0.5%), Sherbrooke (-0.2%) and Halifax (-0.1%).

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012.
Within final demand in September, prices for final demand services rose 0.4 percent, and the index for final demand goods climbed 0.7 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the same as in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.1 percent.

Citigroup (C) reported Q3 FY 2017 earnings of $1.42 per share (versus $1.24 in Q3 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.30.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $18.173 bln (+2.3% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $17.870 bln.

C rose to $75.20 (+0.35%) in pre-market trading.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q3 FY 2017 earnings of $1.76 per share (versus $1.58 in Q3 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.66.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $25.326 bln (+2.6% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $24.907 bln.

JPM fell to $96.52 (-0.33%) in pre-market trading.

• UK said will introduce simplified system for EU citizens to claim rights in UK

• Opec crude output flat m/m in sept at 32.65 mln bpd, down 400,000 bpd y/y; compliance with deal at 88 pct

• Iea expects global crude and products inventories to fall 100,000 bpd, 200,000 bpd, respectively in 2017

• Says surplus of oil and products over the five-year average fell to 170 million barrels in august

• U.S. Crude output to grow 470,000 bpd in 2017, up 1.1 mln bpd in 2018

• Global crude supply rose 90,000 bpd in sept to 97.5 mln bpd, up 620,000 bpd year-on-year

• Sees non-opec crude supply rising 700,000 bpd in 2017, up 1.5 mln bpd in 2018 to reach 59.6 mln bpd

• Lenders expect demand for business lending for capital investment over next three months to be lowest since q3 2011

• UK lenders expect availability of mortgages and lending to corporate sector to be broadly flat over next 3 months

In August 2017 compared with July 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In July 2017, industrial production rose by 0.3% in the euro area, while it fell by 0.3% in the EU28. In August 2017 compared with August 2016, industrial production increased by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.9% in the EU28.

The increase of 1.4% in industrial production in the euro area in August 2017, compared with July 2017, is due to production of capital goods rising by 3.1%, durable consumer goods by 1.3%, intermediate goods by 1.2% and energy by 0.2%, while production of non-durable consumer goods remained stable. In the EU28, the increase of 1.7% is due to production of capital goods rising by 3.2%, durable consumer goods by 1.2%, intermediate goods by 1.0%, energy by 0.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.4%.

EUR/USD: 1.1885/90(820 m), 1.1870(310 m), 1.1790/00(173 m), 1.1725(460 m)

USD/JPY: 113.00/05(268 m), 112.60(650 m), 112.50(475 m), 112.40(112 m), 112.00 (179 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3400(260 m), 1.3350(305 m), 1.3200(505 m)

In September 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) edged down by 0.2% over a month, after a rebound of 0.5% in August. This drop mainly came from a seasonal downturn in services prices and, in a lesser extent, from a slight drop in food prices. Energy prices slowed down a little. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices accelerated.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices accelerated by 0.2%, as in August.

Year on year, consumer prices gathered pace for the second consecutive month: +1.0% after +0.9% in August and +0.7% in July. This rise resulted from an acceleration in energy prices and food prices and a lesser drop in manufactured product prices. On the other hand, services prices slowed down again, due to a stronger fall in airfares and in communication services.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2022 (2881)

$1.1969 (3376)

$1.1933 (1388)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1873

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1825 (639)

$1.1778 (2040)

$1.1714 (3172)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 95650 contracts (according to data from October, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (5746);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3422 (1189)

$1.3366 (1052)

$1.3307 (2232)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3253

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3172 (1207)

$1.3128 (905)

$1.3101 (1095)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 3 is 35584 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3291);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 31585 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2211);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.89 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Fruit and vegetable prices fell 4.9 percent (up 0.4 percent after seasonal adjustment).

• Meat, poultry, and fish prices fell 0.2 percent.

• Grocery food prices rose 0.9 percent (up 0.9 percent after seasonal adjustment).

• Non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 2.3 percent.

• Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.1 percent.

The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.6%. Owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.9% and investment housing commitments rose 0.2%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.1%.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 1.0% in August 2017.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 2.1%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 1.5% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.9%.

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 17.2% in August 2017 from 16.6% in July 2017.

• Many participants expected wage growth to accelerate

• Despite general agreement the economy was on track, many participants were concerned that low inflation might persist and require 'patience' in tightening policy

• A few policymakers thought any further rate increases should be deferred until information 'confirmed' low inflation would not persist

• Several participants said further rate increases should depend on incoming data boosting confidence inflation moving higher

• A few participants argued that inflation was slow to respond to a tightening economy, and was at risk of moving faster than expected

• Some policymakers were open to the possibility of a permanent 'secular' slowdown in inflation due to technology and other factors

• Several participants said they were concerned trend inflation was too low, risking an eventual decline in inflation expectations and damaging Fed credibility

Spanish stocks bounced higher on Wednesday, as worries over the standoff between Catalonia and Madrid subsided, after Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont suspended independence plans. What stocks are doing: The IBEX 35 index IBEX, +1.34% rallied 1.3% to end at 10,278.40, its highest close since Sep. 29, according to FactSet. The Madrid benchmark was rebounding from a 0.9% loss on Tuesday, when concerns over an escalation in Spain's political crisis blunted the appetite for investing.

Equity markets in Asia extended their gains on Thursday, taking cues from fresh overnight records set by key U.S. indexes as the earnings season kicks off. Strong earnings growth has supported major stock indexes this year, and some analysts said they expect third-quarter results to continue to outperform expectations. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve signaled its confidence that the U.S. economy was strong enough to support further rate increases.

All three main U.S. stock benchmarks closed at records on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting suggested caution among policy makers on the next interest rate hike which the market had widely expected in December.