CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-01-2018

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,895.4 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.1 percent) from October 2017 and were up 3.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from November 2016.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of November was 1.33. The November 2016 ratio was 1.40.

U.S. stock-index futures were mixed on Friday, as investors digested fourth-quarter earnings from financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), while Facebook (FB) saw selling pressure amid concerns that recent updates to its news feed will cause users to spend less time on the site.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 23,653.82 -56.61 -0.24%

Hang Seng 31,412.54 +292.15 +0.94%

Shanghai 3,429.32 +3.97 +0.12%

S&P/ASX 6,070.10 +2.50 +0.04%

FTSE 7,773.23 +10.29 +0.13%

CAC 5,503.06 +14.51 +0.26%

DAX 13,185.87 -17.03 -0.13%

Crude $63.26 (-0.85%)

Gold $1,326.90 (+0.33%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $204 from $193 at Maxim Group

Twitter (TWTR) target raised to $30 from $25 at BTIG Research

Visa (V) target raised to $136 from $124 at Citigroup

Alphabet (GOOG) target raised to $1300 from $1150 at Piper Jaffray

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) target raised to $160 from $155 at Wells Fargo

Microsoft (MSFT) target raised to $100 from $90 at Wells Fargo

Amazon (AMZN) target raised to $1400 from $1270 at SunTrust

Caterpillar (CAT) target raised to $189 from $158 at BofA/Merrill Boeing (BA) target raised to $375 from $310 at Credit Suisse UnitedHealth (UNH) target raised to $255 from $235 at Evercore ISI Home Depot (HD) target raised to $227 from $200 at Deutsche Bank

American Express (AXP) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

Coca-Cola (KO) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI

Wells Fargo (WFC) reported Q4 FY 2017 earnings of $1.16 per share (versus $0.96 in Q4 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.03.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $22.050 bln (+2.2% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $22.638 bln.

WFC fell to $62.24 (-1.22%) in pre-market trading.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $495.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 5.4 percent above December 2016.

Total sales for the 12 months of 2017 were up 4.2 percent from 2016. Total sales for the October 2017 through December 2017 period were up 5.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The October 2017 to November 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent from November 2017, and were up 5.6 percent from last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 12.7 percent from December 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 9.9 percent from last year.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
An increase of 0.4 percent in the shelter index accounted for almost 80 percent of the 1-month all items increase. The food index rose in December, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing. The energy index, which rose sharply in November, declined in December as the gasoline index decreased.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q4 FY 2017 earnings of $1.76 per share (versus $1.71 in Q4 FY 2016), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.69.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $24.153 bln (+3.3% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $24.873 bln.

JPM fell to $110.36 (-0.43%) in pre-market trading.

• Says we may be overshooting full employment

• The job market is tightening

• U.S. oil drilling is going up

• It is tough to fill skilled worker jobs

Nikkei 225 is reaching new highs!

If we look on daily time frame chart we can see that the price has already broken a consolidation zone.

Also, we can see that the price is forming an upside trend line.

Therefore, our bias is long if the price remains above the trend line.

In November 2017 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index was unchanged compared with the previous month. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was -0.2.

The calendar adjusted industrial production index increased by 2.2% compared with November 2016 (calendar working days being the same as in November 2016); in the period January-November 2017 the percentage change was +2.7 compared with the same period of 2016.

The unadjusted industrial production index increased by 2.2% compared with November 2016.

In December 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) gathered pace at +0.3% after +0.1% in November. This sharper rise came from a seasonal rebound in services prices and, in a lesser extent, from that of manufactured product prices. On the other hand, energy prices and tobacco prices slowed down and those of food were stable.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices hardly slowed down after a slight acceleration in the previous month: +0.1% after +0.2% in November.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2157 (2913)

$1.2121 (1965)

$1.2101 (2193)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2059

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1978 (2746)

$1.1948 (2815)

$1.1914 (2849)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 94153 contracts (according to data from January, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (5575);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3650 (2034)

$1.3629 (1573)

$1.3599 (1060)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3548

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3490 (1083)

$1.3466 (2376)

$1.3437 (3060)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 28366 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3487);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 26183 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3060);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Says U.S. fiscal path now unsustainable, sees risks to U.S. creditworthiness

• Significant portion of tax cuts will be saved not spent

• Tax cuts could lead to economic overheating, hurt long-term fiscal position

• Expects above-trend gdp growth, rising inflation in 2018

• U.S. Tax cuts to give short-term boost to economy but pose serious long-term risks

• Commerce Department statement offers no information about the findings of its section 232 steel import probe

• Says Trump has 90 days to decide on any potential action based on findings of section 232 steel probe

China's exports grew more than expected in December on global recovery but the pace of expansion slowed from November.

Exports grew 10.9 percent year-on-year in December, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Friday, cited by rttnews.

The annual rate was faster than the expected 10 percent but slower than the 12.3 percent increase registered in November.

Imports climbed 4.5 percent annually, which was much weaker than the 14.8 percent increase economists' had forecast and November's 17.7 percent rise.

As a result, the trade surplus rose to $54.69 billion in December, while it was forecast to fall to $37.4 billion.

European stocks finished at their lowest in a week Thursday, as investors considered a signal from the European Central Bank that it's positioning for a more hawkish view on monetary policy. Retailers, meanwhile, struggled after the release of disappointing financial updates from the sector that included the key Christmas shopping period.

U.S. stock benchmarks resumed their climb to close at records on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered the first down day of the year on anxieties about appetite for Treasurys from the world's second-largest economy, China.

Asian stocks resumed their ascent on Friday, supported by US earnings optimism and a rise in oil prices while the euro edged higher as the European Central Bank signalled an end to its massive stimulus.