CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-01-2019

This profile is marginally lower than the 0.4 per cent that we had published last month and points to GDP growth of 1.5 per cent in 2018.

According to the forecast, growth in the final quarter is driven by the service and construction sectors. The slowdown in the manufacturing sector explains most of the weakness in fourth quarter output.

NIESR expect economic growth to recover modestly in the first quarter of this year to 0.4 per cent, but the risks to our forecast are skewed to the downside because of uncertainty related to Brexit.  

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Thursday, as the continuing U.S. government shutdown weighed on the market sentiment.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs

The Consumer Price Index declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The seasonally adjusted decline in the all items index was caused by a sharpdecrease in the gasoline index, which fell 7.5 percent in December. This decline more than offset increases in several indexes including shelter, food, and other energy components. The energy index fell 3.5 percent, as the gasoline and fuel oil indexes fell, but the indexes for natural gas and for electricity increased. The food index increased 0.4 percent in December.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December, the same increase as in October and November. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for recreation, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all increased in December, while the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined.

• PM Will Likely Talk To Other Unions On Brexit Deal

• Brent crude -- the global oil benchmark -- was trading up 0.9%, at $62.22 a barrel, on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

• West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard, were up 1%, at $53.12 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The decrease of 0.8% in total production output for the three months to November 2018, compared with the three months to August 2018, is due to widespread weakness led by falls of 0.8% in manufacturing and 1.8% in water and waste; this is the first time since October 2012 that all four main sectors fell.

The decrease of 0.8% in three-monthly total manufacturing output is due to 10 of the 13 sub-sectors falling where the largest downward contribution came from a fall in transport equipment of 1.1%, which was due to a fall in motor vehicles of 2.4%.

In November 2018, total production output fell by 0.4%, compared with October 2018, due to a fall of 0.3% in manufacturing, supported by falls of 1.1% electricity and gas and 1.3% in mining and quarrying.

The monthly decrease in manufacturing output of 0.3% was due to 8 of the 13 sub-sectors falling; the largest downward contribution came from basic metals and metal products, falling by 3.6%

The total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £0.2 billion to £7.9 billion in the three months to November 2018 as both goods and services exports each increased £0.1 billion more than their respective imports.

Excluding erratic commodities (mainly aircraft) the total trade deficit widened £1.2 billion to £9.5 billion in the three months to November 2018.

Large increases in export prices of oil and aircraft drove the narrowing of the total trade deficit; removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit widened £0.3 billion to £6.5 billion in the three months to November 2018.

The trade in goods deficit widened £0.8 billion with EU countries and narrowed £0.9 billion with non-EU countries in the three months to November 2018, due mainly to increases in imports from EU countries and exports to non-EU countries.

The total trade deficit widened £4.1 billion in the 12 months to November 2018 due mainly to a £4.4 billion narrowing in the trade in services surplus.

In the three months to November 2018, services output increased by 0.3% compared with the three months ending August 2018.

The professional, scientific and technical activities sector made the largest contribution to this growth, contributing 0.17 percentage points.

The Index of Services increased by 0.3% between October 2018 and November 2018.

The wholesale, retail and motor trade sector made the largest contribution to the month-on-month growth, contributing 0.15 percentage points.

In the three months to November 2018, services output increased by 1.8% compared with the three months ending November 2017.

Commenting on today’s GDP figures Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

“Growth in the UK economy continued to slow in the three months to November 2018 after performing more strongly through the middle of the year. Accountancy and housebuilding again grew but a number of other areas were sluggish.

“Manufacturing saw a steep decline, with car production and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry both performing poorly.”

• Don't See Inflation Forcing Fed to Hit the Brakes

• Principal Worry I Have is Global Growth

• On Balance, Still See Modest Benefit of Lower Oil Prices for U.S. Economy

• Slowing Growth Rate in China is a Worry

• Chinese Authorities Are Doing Repeated Rounds of Things to Support Economy

• Baseline Case for China is Another Year of Solid Growth

• Tariffs on Either Side Have Not Had Visible Mark on China, U.S. Economies

• If Trade Process Leads to Lower Tariff Environment, Good For Global Economy

• Would Not Be Appropriate to Turn Down Invitation From White House

• Financial Market Turbulence Seems Rooted in Concerns Over Trade, Global Growth

• Underlying Economic Data Does Not Point to Slowdown

• We Can Flexibly and Quickly Move Policy if Necessary

• We'll Take into Account Tightening Financial Conditions in Forecasts

• Will Try to Have Monetary Policy Offset Economic Weakness Before it Happens

• An Extended Government Shutdown Could Show Up in Economic Data

• Would Have Less Clear Picture of Economy if Shutdown Lasts

• Median Rate Forecast Conditional On Very Strong Outlook for 2019

• Minutes Meant to Amplify What's in FOMC Decision

• FOMC Has Institutionalized Diversity of Perspectives

• Don't Try to Lobby Other FOMC Participants

• Not Bothered By Criticism From President Trump

• Fed Doesn't Take Political Factors into Consideration in Discussions or Decisions

• No Invitation to Meet With President Trump Yet

• Not Aware of Any Fed Chair Turning Down Meeting Invitation from White House

• The trend estimate rose 0.2% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018.

• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.6% in November 2018 compared with November 2017.

• The following industries rose in trend terms in November 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Household goods retailing (0.4%), Other retailing (0.4%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing (0.5%), and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway services retailing (0.1%). Department stores was relatively unchanged (0.0%).

• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in November 2018: Queensland (0.5%), Victoria (0.4%), Western Australia (0.3%), South Australia (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.5%), and Tasmania (0.2%). New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Northern Territory (-0.6%) fell in trend terms in November 2018.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1622 (2328)

$1.1592 (477)

$1.1575 (546)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1523

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1492 (290)

$1.1468 (622)

$1.1440 (1465)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 66653 contracts (according to data from January, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (8569);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2971 (1267)

$1.2946 (423)

$1.2886 (180)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2747

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2638 (430)

$1.2615 (617)

$1.2590 (1519)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 21744 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1872);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 23159 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.