CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-10-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 50.94 +2.74%

Gold 1,290.30 +0.41%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +132.80 20823.51 +0.64%

TOPIX +7.98 1695.14 +0.47%

Hang Seng +164.24 28490.83 +0.58%

CSI 300 +7.65 3889.86 +0.20%

Euro Stoxx 50 -11.71 3598.79 -0.32%

FTSE 100 +30.38 7538.27 +0.40%

DAX -27.15 12949.25 -0.21%

CAC 40 -2.18 5363.65 -0.04%

DJIA +69.61 22830.68 +0.31%

S&P 500 +5.91 2550.64 +0.23%

NASDAQ +7.52 6587.25 +0.11%

S&P/TSX +42.04 15770.36 +0.27%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1808 +0,57%

GBP/USD $1,3202 +0,46%

USD/CHF Chf0,9749 -0,47%

USD/JPY Y112,37 -0,25%

EUR/JPY Y132,69 +0,31%

GBP/JPY Y148,348 +0,21%

AUD/USD $0,7778 +0,33%

NZD/USD $0,7069 +0,18%

USD/CAD C$1,25147 -0,28%

02:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence October 97.9

02:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders August 8.0% 1.1%

02:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y August -7.5% 0.8%

03:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

08:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September 36.3%

14:15 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

17:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings August 6.17 6.138

21:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

21:40 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

21:50 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

Major US stock indices slightly increased on Tuesday, responding to the IMF's improved forecasts for the growth of world GDP and US GDP for 2017 and 2018.

The IMF said that the global economic recovery has intensified and is wide-ranging, but it remains incomplete. The growth forecast for this year was raised to 3.6% from 3.5%, and by 2018 - to 3.7% from 3.6%. This is more than the growth of 3.2% in 2016, which was the weakest since the global financial crisis.

As for the growth of the US economy, the IMF revised its forecast for 2017 (to 2.2% from 2.1% expected in July) and to 2018 (to 2.3% from 2.1%).

Meanwhile, gradually attention of investors is shifting to the quarterly reporting of the corporate segment for the third quarter, which will show how justified are the high valuation of companies. The unofficial start of the season of US companies' reports will happen later this week with the publication of the results of several major financial institutions: on Thursday, October 12, reports will be submitted by Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), on Friday, October 13 - Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC). According to Thomson Reuters, the profits of companies in the S & P 500 index basket are expected to show an increase of 4.2% compared to the same period last year, after exceeding expectations of growth of 12.3% y / y in the second quarter.

In addition, as shown by the data, the index of economic optimism in the US, calculated by the newspaper Investor's Business Daily and the research firm TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, collapsed in October by 5.8%, reaching 50.3 points, which is the lowest reading for the last 12 months. Experts expected that the figure will rise to 54.6 points compared to 53.4 points in September. However, the index still remains above 50 points, which indicates optimism. It is worth emphasizing that the index is above the level of 50 for 13 consecutive months, which is the longest series for more than a decade. Oil prices jumped by more than 1.5%, gaining support from Saudi Arabia's intention to cut oil exports, and OPEC comments and trading companies that the market is restoring its balance after years of oversupply. Saudi Arabia said it plans to reduce oil supplies by 560,000 barrels a day in November. This step is yet another confirmation of the fact that OPEC members are committed to a pact on the reduction of supply.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (17 out of 30). Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. became the leader of growth. (WMT, + 4.71%). Outsider were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, -0.93%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The utilities sector grew most (+ 0.7%). The decrease was shown only by the conglomerate sector (-0.2%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.31% 22.830.68 +69.61

Nasdaq + 0.11% 6,587.25 +7.52

S & P + 0.23% 2.550.64 +5.91

EURUSD: 1.1690 (EUR 380m) 1.1700 (500m) 1.1745-50 (590m)

USDJPY: 110.90 (USD 400m) 113.00 (360m) 113.10-15 (520mn) 113.25 (710m) Y113.45-60 (1.15bln)

GBPUSD: 1.3050 (GBP 330m) 1.3210 (450m) 1.3300 (350m)

EURGBP: 0.8750 (EUR300m)

USDCHF: 0.9775 (USD 330m)

AUDUSD: Ntg of note

NZDUSD: 0.7150 (NZD 220m)

AUDCAD: 0.9750 (AUD 430m)

• Does not consider Iran's revolutionary guards as terrorist organisation

U.S. stock-index futures were higher on Tuesday as investors awaited the start of earnings season, which will unofficially kick off later this week, when several big banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC), publish their results for the third quarter.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,823.51 +132.80 +0.64%

Hang Seng 28,490.83 +164.24 +0.58%

Shanghai 3,383.54 +9.16 +0.27%

S&P/ASX 5,738.11 -1.15 -0.02%

FTSE 7,533.42 +25.53 +0.34%

CAC 5,362.87 -2.96 -0.06%

DAX 12,957.42 -18.98 -0.15%

Crude $50.24 (+1.33%)

Gold $1,293.10 (+0.63%)

• Board members unanimously voted to keep key rate on hold at 1.75 pct at oct 3 meeting

• Minutes show policymakers considered a potential lowering of minimum reserve requirements on leu-denominated liabilities to ease market liquidity squeeze

• New assessments point to a further step-up in gdp growth in q3, followed by a slowdown in q4

• Majority of romanian central bank board members deemed the balance of risks to the medium-term inflation forecast as tilted to the upside

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Tesla (TSLA) target raised to $379 from $317 at Morgan Stanley; maintain Equal Weight

Caterpillar (CAT) target raised to $158 at Goldman

"Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, a slight increase in comparison with the second quarter when the economy expanded by 0.3 per cent. Although growth has nudged higher, the UK economy continues to lag behind other major industrial economies such as the Euro Area and US" - NIESR

Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting at NIESR, said "We estimate that economic growth recovered to 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year from 0.3 per cent in the second quarter. Our third quarter GDP growth estimate is in line with the forecast published in August. Although economic growth is likely to be a touch stronger in the second half of this year compared with the first, it is important to note that activity has slowed since last year and this at a time when real GDP growth in other major economies such as the Euro Area and the USA has strengthened. Looking ahead, we expect the pattern of demand in the UK economy to rebalance towards international trade in response to strengthening global growth and weaker sterling and away from domestic demand.

Canadian municipalities issued $7.5 billion worth of building permits in August, down 5.5% from July. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease. Despite these declines, the year-to-date value of building permits (January to August) is up 8.7% compared with the same period in 2016, reflecting a $3.1 billion increase in multi-family dwellings.

Total construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Canada declined in August, down 6.0% from July. However, the sector has been on an upward trend since 2009.

This upward trend has gradually closed the gap between the value of multi-family dwellings and single-family dwellings. June 2017 was the first month where the value of multi-family dwelling permits for Canada surpassed the value of single-family dwelling permits. Overall, the multi-family component was $294.3 million higher than the single-family component in June, and $8.1 million higher in July.

• We anticipate significantly reducing our assumption for potential productivity growth over the next five years in nov budget report

• Abnormally low level of interest rates could be weighing on productivity growth

Construction output contracted by 0.8% in the three month on three month series in August 2017 but remains at relatively high levels.

The three month on three month decline in output was due to decreases in both repair and maintenance, which fell 0.6% and all new work, which fell 0.9%.

Construction output grew 0.6% month-on-month in August 2017, predominantly driven by a 1.7% rise in all new work.

The month-on-month rise in all new work stemmed from growth in private housing, which grew 2.3% and infrastructure, which increased by 3.6%.

Between the three months to May 2017 and the three months to August 2017, the total UK trade (goods and services) excluding erratic commodities deficit widened by £2.9 billion to £10.8 billion.

Between the three months to May 2017 and the three months to August 2017, the total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £6.2 billion to £13.2 billion; this was largely due to a switch from a surplus to a deficit on the balance of erratic commodities, such as non-monetary gold, that can have large effects on headline movements and make it difficult to discern underlying trends so users are advised to put more emphasis on the UK trade excluding erratic commodities balance.

Between the three months to May 2017 and the three months to August 2017, total trade in goods exports fell due to decreased exports to non-EU countries, partially offset by increased exports to other EU countries.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) excluding erratic commodities widened by £1.7 billion to £4.6 billion between July and August 2017.

In the three months to August 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have increased by 0.9%; all four main sectors increased with the largest contribution from manufacturing.

The largest contribution to the rise in manufacturing in the three months to August 2017 came from other manufacturing and repair, which rose by 3.8%; this sub-sector includes a wide range of high-value milestone-based contracts for repair and maintenance, such as for aircraft, ships and boats.

In August 2017, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.2% compared with July 2017, due mainly to a rise of 0.4% in manufacturing.

Total production output for August 2017 compared with August 2016 increased by 1.6%, with manufacturing providing the largest upward contribution, increasing by 2.8%; mining and quarrying partially offset this rise, decreasing by 6.0%.

EUR/USD: 1.1745-50(565 m), 1.1700(495 m), 1.1690(375 m)

USD/JPY: 113.25(710 m), 113.15(400 m), 110.90(400 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3210(450 m), 1.3050(325 m)

In August 2017, output slipped back slightly in the manufacturing industry (−0.4% after +0.6% in July) as well as in the whole industry (−0.3% after +0.8%).

Over the last three months, manufacturing output remained virtually stable in the manufacturing industry (+0.1%). It went up slightly in the overall industry (+0.2%).

Output grew markedly in the manufacture of transport equipment (+2.6%). It increased in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+0.5%) and remained almost unchanged in "other manufacturing" (+0.1%). It jumped in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+5.2%). Conversely, it decreased in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (−1.5%) as well as in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−0.4%).

Manufacturing output of the last three months increased markedly compared to the same months of 2016 (+2.7%). It also grew sharply in the whole industry (+2.4%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1916 (3393)

$1.1863 (1378)

$1.1828 (383)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1779

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1706 (2621)

$1.1680 (2833)

$1.1649 (3408)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 88370 contracts (according to data from October, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (5191);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3312 (3318)

$1.3250 (1366)

$1.3214 (1050)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3172

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3108 (1929)

$1.3066 (1014)

$1.3040 (2140)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 3 is 32686 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3318);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 30713 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2191);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Japan posted a current account surplus of 2.380 trillion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said, cited by rttnews - up 20.8 percent on year.

The headline figure exceeded expectations for a surplus of 2.223 trillion yen and was up from 2.320 trillion yen in July.

The trade surplus came in at 318.7 billion yen, beating forecasts for 264.9 billion yen and down from 566.6 billion yen in the previous month.

Exports climbed 16.3 percent on year to 6.165 trillion yen - but down from 6.401 trillion yen in the previous month.

Imports jumped an annual 15.1 percent to 5.847 trillion yen - up from 5.834 trillion yen a month earlier.

• Expect consumer prices to accelerate and approach 2 pct inflation target

• BoJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve 2 pct inflation in stable manner

According to the SECO, at the end of September 2017 133,169 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAV), 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9'506 persons (-6.7%). Youth unemployment in September 2017 The youth unemployment (15 to 24 year olds) decreased by 1,043 persons (-5.6%) to 17'709. Compared to the previous year, this corresponds to a decrease of 2'318 persons (-11.6%).

Germany exported goods to the value of 103.1 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 83.0 billion euros in August 2017. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 8.5% in August 2017 year on year. Compared with July 2017, exports increased by 3.1% and imports by 1.2% in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 20.0 billion euros in August 2017. In August 2016, the surplus amounted to 19.6 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.6 billion euros in August 2017.

According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 17.8 billion euros in August 2017, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+21.8 billion euros), services (-4.9 billion euros), primary income (+4.4 billion euros) and secondary income (-3.5 billion euros). In August 2016, the German current account showed a surplus of 16.9 billion euros.

European stocks nudged higher Monday, finding support from advances in Spanish stocks and strength in German economic data. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.19% rose 0.2% to close at 390.21, partly rebounding from a 0.4% loss on Friday.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq ending a nine-day rally as investors found few reasons to push shares deeper into record territory in a thinly traded session. The U.S. bond market was closed in observance of Columbus Day, which contributed to the light trading action in equities.

South Korean equities led broad gains across the Asia-Pacific region on Tuesday, as investors there caught up with the global market strength following a long holiday. Driving gains was a 4.4% surge in heavyweight Samsung Electronics 005930, +4.25%, as traders rush to buy the stock ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report due on Friday.