CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-01-2018

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -61.79 23788.20 -0.26%

TOPIX +2.82 1892.11 +0.15%

Hang Seng +62.31 31073.72 +0.20%

CSI 300 +18.51 4207.81 +0.44%

Euro Stoxx 50 -13.04 3609.83 -0.36%

FTSE 100 +17.49 7748.51 +0.23%

DAX -104.25 13281.34 -0.78%

CAC 40 -19.26 5504.68 -0.35%

DJIA -16.67 25369.13 -0.07%

S&P 500 -3.06 2748.23 -0.11%

NASDAQ -10.01 7153.57 -0.14%

S&P/TSX -71.29 16247.95 -0.44%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1947 +0,10%

GBP/USD $1,3506 -0,24%

USD/CHF Chf0,97824 -0,52%

USD/JPY Y111,42 -1,09%

EUR/JPY Y133,12 -1,00%

GBP/JPY Y150,495 -1,33%

AUD/USD $0,7841 +0,23%

NZD/USD $0,7198 +0,53%

USD/CAD C$1,25455 +0,67%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M November 0.5% 0.4%

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) November 116.4

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) November 106.5 108.9

10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) November 3.7% 3%

10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) November 0.2% 0.6%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM November 0.1% 0.2%

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY November 3.5%

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims December 1914 1915

13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y December 3.1% 3%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December 2.4% 2.5%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m December 0.3% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m December 0.4% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 250 248

19:00 U.S. Federal budget December -139.0 -40

20:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m November -9.6%

23:50 Japan Current Account, bln November 2.176 1.836

Major US stock indices fell slightly on Wednesday, interrupting the rally beginning of 2018, after the report that China could slow down or even stop its purchases.

Bloomberg News referring to people familiar with this issue, said that Chinese officials recommended that the government reduce, or even stop, the purchase of US sovereign debt. The report also notes that Chinese officials believe that US debt is becoming less attractive compared to other assets, adding that trade tensions between the two countries could be a reason for slowing or stopping purchases. "If China were not the largest foreign holder of US debt, it would not be a big deal, but it is," said Peter Buokvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.

A certain influence on the dynamics of trading was also provided by the US data. As it became known, import prices in the US recorded the lowest growth in five months in December, and the pressure of basic import prices was suppressed by a decrease in spending on food and consumer goods. The Ministry of Labor reported that import prices rose 0.1% last month after revised with an increase of 0.8% in November. This was the smallest increase since July and well below expectations of economists of a 0.4% increase.

In addition, wholesale inventories in the US grew slightly stronger than originally expected in November, suggesting that investment in inventories is likely to contribute to economic growth in the fourth quarter. The Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that wholesale stocks recovered by 0.8% after a 0.4% decrease in October. Last month, the Ministry of Trade informed that wholesale stocks rose by 0.7% in November.

Most components of the DOW index finished the auction mixed (17 in the red, 13 in the black). Outsider were shares of Intel Corporation (INTC, -2.57%). The leader of the growth of shares of General Electric Company (GE, + 1.99%).

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-1.1%). The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 0.6%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.07% 25,369.13 -16.67

Nasdaq -0.14% 7,153.57 -10.01

S & P -0.11% 2,748.23 -3.06

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 419.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels last week, and are near the top of the average range. Blending components inventories increased last week while finished gasoline inventories were down slightly.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.5 million barrels last week

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $611.0 billion at the end of November, up 0.8 percent from the revised October level. Total inventories were up 4.0 percent from the revised November 2016 level. The October 2017 to November 2017 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.7 percent to up 0.8 percent.

The November inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.24. The November 2016 ratio was 1.31.

• Says he wanted to put off rate hikes until the middle of this year

• Wanted to delay december rate hike until mid-year, wait for stronger inflation

• Not aware of anything besides recent tax cuts that will propel economic growth

• Risks of growth accelerating beyond forecast are not high

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday, as investors digested a surge in bond yields, triggered by a report that China is considering slowing or halting purchases of U.S. government debt.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 23,788.20 -61.79 -0.26%

Hang Seng 31,073.72 +62.31 +0.20%

Shanghai 3,422.14 +8.24 +0.24%

S&P/ASX 6,096.70 -39.10 -0.64%

FTSE 7,738.46 +7.44 +0.10%

CAC 5,501.05 -22.89 -0.41%

DAX 13,268.39 -117.20 -0.88%

Crude $63.44 (+0.76%)

Gold $1,321.10 (+0.56%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Cisco Systems (CSCO) resumed with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray; target $44

Deere (DE) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts

3M (MMM) target raised to $240 from $180 at Deutsche Bank; Hold

Boeing (BA) target raised to $347 from $328 at Drexel Hamilton

The value of building permits issued by Canadian municipalities declined 7.7% to $7.7 billion in November, the first decrease in three months. Nationally, the value of permits for all building components declined, with the exception of single-family dwellings.

The value of building permits for non-residential structures fell 12.3% to $2.9 billion in November, following two monthly increases. The decline was spread over the three non-residential components (commercial, industrial and institutional).

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.8-percent rise the previous month. Higher fuel prices more than offset a decline in the price index for nonfuel prices in December. In contrast, U.S. export prices edged down 0.1 percent in December, after advancing 0.5 percent in November.

"Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, an increase compared with the third quarter when the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent and the strongest quarterly growth estimate since the fourth quarter of 2016. Based on this, the UK economy expanded by 1.8 per cent in 2017".

Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting at NIESR, said "We estimate that economic growth recovered to 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of this year from 0.4 per cent in the third quarter. Economic growth has picked up in the second half of 2017 after a period of subdued growth in the first six months. The recovery has been driven by both the manufacturing and the service sectors, supported by the weaker pound and a buoyant global economy, while construction output continues to lag

NZD/JPY on 4-hour time frame chart we can see that the price is now touching above the upside trend line.

Therefore, it can be very interesting to follow this pair.

In this scenario, we whether expect a new bullish movement or a bearish movement which will depend how the price reacts.

The total UK trade (goods and services) deficit narrowed by £2.1 billion to £6.2 billion in the three months to November 2017; excluding erratic commodities, the total deficit narrowed by £1.2 billion to £6.1 billion.

The £2.1 billion narrowing of the total trade deficit (goods and services) was due to a £1.2 billion narrowing of the trade in goods deficit; this was a result of increases in exports including works of art and cars, and a £0.9 billion widening of the trade in services surplus due to increases in exports.

The narrowing of the trade in goods deficit was due to a 5.3% (£2.3 billion) increase in exports to non-EU countries, partially offset by increases in imports, in the three months to November 2017.

This is the first Index of Production release to incorporate Value Added Tax (VAT), using data from over 75,000 businesses across 64 industries, on top of the returns from the 6,000 sample each month from the Monthly Business Survey.

In the three months to November 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have increased by 1.2% compared with the three months to August 2017, due mainly to a rise of 1.4% in manufacturing.

There was strong broad-based growth across manufacturing in the three months to November 2017; the largest contribution came from machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified, which included renewable energy equipment, with an increase of 5.6%.

In November 2017, output slipped back in the manufacturing industry (−1.0%) after a strong increase in October (+2.5%). It fell more slightly in the whole industry (−0.5% after +1.7%).

Despite the fall in November, output increased sharply over the last three months in the manufacturing industry (+2.1%) as well as in the overall industry (+2.0%).

Output went up strongly in "other manufacturing" (+2.5%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+2.7%), in the manufacture of transport equipment (+2.8%), and in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+1.3%). Conversely, it decreased slightly in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−0.2%) and more markedly in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (−3.1%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2070 (3583)

$1.2045 (2016)

$1.2011 (2193)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1939

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1884 (2705)

$1.1854 (2970)

$1.1819 (3976)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 87915 contracts (according to data from January, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (5400);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3651 (1858)

$1.3630 (1463)

$1.3589 (909)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3519

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3461 (2180)

$1.3432 (2823)

$1.3399 (1774)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 26745 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3125);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 24141 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2823);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.90 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Forecasts global economic growth to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018 from expected 3 percent in 2017

China's inflation rose less than expected in December and producer prices logged its weakest growth in more than a year as government stepped up measures to tackle pollution.

Consumer price inflation rose moderately to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent in November, the National Bureau of Statistics cited by rttnews. The rate was forecast to rise to 1.9 percent.

Food prices fell 0.4 percent, following a 1.1 percent decrease in November. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose at a slightly slower pace of 2.4 percent.

For the whole year of 2017, inflation was 1.6 percent, which was well below the government's target of around 3 percent.

U.S. stock benchmarks on Tuesday afternoon finished at fresh records, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registering a sixth straight gain for 2018. The three main equity benchmarks have gained between 21% and 30% over the past 12 months, supported by factors such an expanding global economy, growth in corporate profits and enthusiasm over the Trump administration's tax cuts.

U.K. stocks closed higher Tuesday, with the blue-chip index setting another record as Wm. Morrison Supermarkets PLC helped lead gains in retail shares following its upbeat Christmas sales update.

Some Asian stock markets pulled back Wednesday morning, ending a big start to 2018 for global equities, though Hong Kong's benchmark climbed to a 10-year high.