CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-11-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -45.11 22868.71 -0.20%

TOPIX -4.49 1813.11 -0.25%

Hang Seng +228.97 29136.57 +0.79%

CSI 300 +27.89 4075.90 +0.69%

Euro Stoxx 50 -42.54 3612.50 -1.16%

FTSE 100 -45.62 7484.10 -0.61%

DAX -199.86 13182.56 -1.49%

CAC 40 -63.68 5407.75 -1.16%

DJIA -101.42 23461.94 -0.43%

S&P 500 -9.76 2584.62 -0.38%

NASDAQ -39.06 6750.06 -0.58%

S&P/TSX -23.26 16082.09 -0.14%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1640 +0,40%

GBP/USD $1,3143 +0,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,99382 -0,62%

USD/JPY Y113,46 -0,35%

EUR/JPY Y132,08 +0,05%

GBP/JPY Y149,137 -0,13%

AUD/USD $0,7678 +0,02%

NZD/USD $0,6945 -0,21%

USD/CAD C$1,26817 -0,36%

03:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement

07:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index September -0.2% -0.1%

10:45 France Industrial Production, m/m September -0.3% 0.7%

10:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter III 0.4%

12:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) September 1.6% 1.8%

12:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) September 0.2% 0.1%

12:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) September 0.4% 0.3%

12:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) September 2.8% 2.3%

12:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance September -5.63

16:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate October 0.4%

18:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) November 100.7 100.7

21:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count November 729

The main US stock indexes have moderately decreased, reacting to the negative news regarding the tax reform of US President Trump,

Bill Cassidy, a member of the Senate Finance Committee, said the Senate tax proposal would delay the corporate tax cut by one year, until 2019.

A small influence on the course of trading also provided data on the United States. As it became known, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, indicating that the processing of applications violated by recent hurricanes began to improve. Initial applications for state unemployment benefits increased by 10,000 to 239,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending November 4, the Ministry of Labor said. Economists predicted that primary treatment would rise to 231,000. Primary treatment fell to 229,000 the previous week, approaching the 44.5-year low, and remain well below the 300,000 level, which is usually considered a signal for a healthy labor market.

At the same time, in September wholesale stocks in the US increased by 0.3%, which is in line with the forecasts, while strong growth in August was slightly revised from 0.9% to 0.8%. The component of wholesale stocks, which is included in the calculation of gross domestic product - wholesale stocks, excluding auto, - increased in September by 0.42%.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (21 out of 30). Outsider were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, -1.78%). The leader of growth was the shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, + 1.67%).

All sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The largest drop was shown by the sector of industrial goods (-1.1%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.43% 23,462.07 -101.29

Nasdaq -0.58% 6,750.05 -39.06

S & P-0.38% 2.584.62 -9.76

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $609.5 billion at the end of September, up 0.3 percent from the revised August level. Total inventories were up 4.6 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised September 2016 level. The August 2017 to September 2017 percent change was unrevised from the advance estimate of up 0.3 percent.

U.S. stock-index futures were lower on lower on Thursday in the absence of fresh catalysts and rising skepticism over a Republican tax overhaul plan.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,868.71 -45.11 -0.20%

Hang Seng 29,136.57 +228.97 +0.79%

Shanghai 3,427.79 +12.33 +0.36%

S&P/ASX 6,049.43 +33.16 +0.55%

FTSE 7,485.87 -43.85 -0.58%

CAC 5,417.10 -54.33 -0.99%

DAX 3,246.69 -135.73 -1.01%

Crude $56.93 (+0.21%)

Gold $1,287.20 (+0.27%)

EURUSD: 1.1585 (EUR 405m) 1.1600 (1.43bln) 1.1650 (310m) 1.1680 (1.06bln) 1.1700(1.42m) 1.1750 (320m) 1.1775 (450m)

USDJPY: 111.00 (USD 790m) 112.05 (400m) 112.60 (455m) 112.90 (500m) 113.00-10(1.24bln) 113.50-60 (815m) 114.00 (540m) 114.50(575m) 114.90 (315m)

GBPUSD: 1.3035 (GBP 290m) 1.3150-55 (440m)

EURGBP: 0.8650 (EUR 440m) 0.8750 (470m)

AUDUSD: 0.7570-75 (AUD 390m) 0.7615 (245m) 0.7650-55 (400m) 0.7745-50(850m)

AUDJPY: 86.85 (AUD 500m) Y88.05 (560m)

USDCAD: 1.2650 (USD 325m)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Higher new home prices in British Columbia were responsible for most of the national gain in September, while results in the rest of Canada were mixed.

New house prices in Canada rose 0.2% in September, largely reflecting increases in the census metropolitan areas (CMAs) of Kelowna (+0.9%) and Vancouver (+0.7%). Builders tied the rise to improved market conditions.

Prices for new homes in most Southern Ontario CMAs were unchanged in September. The exceptions were Oshawa (+0.9%), St. Catharines-Niagara (+0.6%) and London (+0.2%). Toronto and Guelph each reported a fourth consecutive month of no price change.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, new house prices declined in all four surveyed CMAs, with Regina (-0.3%) recording the largest decrease.

Microsoft (MSFT) initiated with a Buy at UBS; target $105

In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 232,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750.

As we can see on 4 hours time frame chart, the price has been created a downside trend line.

During the night of today it was possible to see that the price has tested the trend line several times which means that the price can start a new bearish movement until 0.7638 which is our support level (yellow line).

Besides that, if the price breaks that support level so we can expect a bigger depreciation of Australian dollar.

EUR/USD: 1.1585(404 m), 1.1600(1.43 b), 1.1650(306 m), 1.1680(1.06 b) 1.1700(1.42 m), 1.1715(316 m), 1.1775(448 m)

USD/JPY: 111.00(790 m), 112.07(400 m), 112.60(445 m), 112.90(500 m) 113.00(315 m), 113.10(590 m), 113.50-60(812 m), 114.00(540 m) 114.50(571 m), 114.90(314 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3035(287 m), 1.3150-55(387 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7649-55(400 m), 0.7745-50(848 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2630(323 m)

EUR/GBP: 0.8650(440 m), 0.8750(470 m)

AUD/JPY: 86.85-87(500 m), 88.05(557 m)

• Headline inflation is likely to temporarily decline towards the turn of the year

• Says survey results point to unabated growth momentum in the second half of this year

• Over 3/4 of fx strategists say risks to U.S. dollar unchanged since appointment of Jerome Powell as Fed chief

• About 80 pct of fx strategists say U.S. tax reforms would boost dollar, but many not convinced will pass congress

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1686 (1389)

$1.1666 (958)

$1.1640 (759)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1611

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1557 (5723)

$1.1533 (8423)

$1.1503 (5955)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 150712 contracts (according to data from November, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8423);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3270 (3262)

$1.3219 (1337)

$1.3182 (657)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3149

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3087 (1151)

$1.3056 (1394)

$1.3007 (2638)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 40045 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3262);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 37843 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4763);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• NZD has eased and if sustained will increase inflation

• New zealand's reserve bank OCR unchanged at 1.75 percent

• RBNZ sees official cash rate at 1.8 pct in december 2018 (pvs 1.8 pct)

• Official cash rate at 1.8 pct in march 2019 (pvs 1.8 pct)

• Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period

• Employment growth has been strong

• Cpi inflation is projected to remain near the midpoint of the target range

China's inflation climbed at the fastest pace in nine months in October and producer price inflation exceeded expectations as measures taken to curb pollution raised commodity prices.

Inflation rose to 1.9 percent in October from 1.6 percent in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, cited by rttnews.

Economists had forecast the rate to climb moderately to 1.8 percent. This was the highest rate since January, when inflation was 2.5 percent.

Nonetheless, inflation was well below the government's full year target of around 3 percent.

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 134,800 unemployed people were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV) at the end of October 2017, 1,631 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 9,731 (-6.7%). Youth unemployment in October 2017 Youth unemployment (15-24 year-olds) decreased by 804 (-4.5%) to 16,905. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this represents a decline of 2,190 people (-11.5%).

Germany exported goods to the value of 110.4 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 86.3 billion euros in September 2017. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 4.6% and imports by 5.5% in September 2017 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports fell by 0.4% and imports by 1.0% compared with August 2017.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 24.1 billion euros in September 2017. In September 2016, the surplus amounted to +23.7 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.8 billion euros in September 2017.

European stocks ended under slight pressure on Wednesday as investors digested the latest coming out of the earnings space. The pan-European Stoxx 600 came off its session lows to finish down 0.05 percent provisionally, while sectors pointed in opposite directions by the close. Financials and banking stocks underperformed several sectors Wednesday, on earnings and doubts over U.S. plans to reform the tax system. French bank Credit Agricole fell over 3 percent after posting lower net profits. Italy's BPM meanwhile sank 7.5 percent, after it was halted during early morning trading, Reuters reported.

U.S. stock indexes finished with small gains Wednesday as video game makers gave technology companies a boost and household goods companies also rose. However a recent decline in interest rates continued to put pressure on banks. Companies that make and sell household goods, like Colgate-Palmolive and Wal-Mart, gained ground as well. Energy companies declined and banks fell again as interest rates have weakened since late October, which makes mortgages and other loans less profitable.

Asian stocks climbed in Thursday trade, following the firmer lead from Wall Street in the last session. Investors in the region also digested the release of Chinese inflation data and kept an eye on President Donald Trump's stop in Beijing.