CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-01-2019

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09.01.2019
23:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, January 10, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y December 2.7% 1.6%
01:30 China CPI y/y December 2.2% 2.1%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 104.9  
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 99.6 99.5
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November 1.2% 0.2%
12:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts    
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims December 1740 1714
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) November -0.2% -0.5%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM November 0%  
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY November 0.1%  
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 231 225
13:35 U.S. Fed Barkin Speech    
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks    
17:45 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m November 1.5%  
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index December 44.5  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y November -0.3% 0.2%
23:50 Japan Current Account, bln November 1309.9 1384
21:19
Major US stock indexes rose on the basis of the trading session

Major US stock indexes ended in positive territory, recording a fourth consecutive sessional increase due to technology and other trade-sensitive sectors, following signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China.

Representatives of the two largest economies in the world completed trade negotiations in Beijing, which lasted longer than expected. Official representatives spoke positively about the meeting and said that the details will be published soon. This gives hope that the parties will be able to prevent an all-out trade war that could seriously harm the global economy.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose by almost 5% on Wednesday, as the extension of negotiations between the US and China in Beijing instilled hope that the two largest economies in the world will resolve their trade dispute. Some support for oil also had data from the US Department of Energy and the weakening US dollar.

Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (18 out of 30). The growth leader was Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 1.73%). The outsider was Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -2.12%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The largest growth was shown by the commodity sector (+ 1.2%). Decline recorded only the utilities sector (-0.5%)

At the time of closing:

Dow 23,879.12 +91.67 +0.39%

S & P 500 2,584.96 +10.55 +0.41%

Nasdaq 100 6,957.08 +60.08 +0.87%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, January 10, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y December 2.7% 1.6%
01:30 China CPI y/y December 2.2% 2.1%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 104.9  
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 99.6 99.5
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November 1.2% 0.2%
12:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts    
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims December 1740 1714
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) November -0.2% -0.5%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM November 0%  
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY November 0.1%  
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 231 225
13:35 U.S. Fed Barkin Speech    
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks    
17:45 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m November 1.5%  
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index December 44.5  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y November -0.3% 0.2%
23:50 Japan Current Account, bln November 1309.9 1384
20:01
DJIA +0.59% 23,927.17 +139.72 Nasdaq +1.02% 6,967.26 +70.26 S&P +0.58% 2,589.28 +14.87
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +45.03 6906.63 +0.66% DAX +89.34 10893.32 +0.83% CAC 40 +40.31 4813.58 +0.84%
15:32
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 439.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 8.1 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 10.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 13.3 million barrels last week.

15:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, January -1.680 (forecast -2.8)
15:02
The Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent, as expected

"The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018. In particular, growth in the United States remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019. However, there are increasing signs that the US-China trade conflict is weighing on global demand and commodity prices.

Global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The lower prices primarily reflect sustained increases in US oil supply and, more recently, increased worries about global demand. These worries among market participants have also been reflected in bond and equity markets.  

The drop in global oil prices has a material impact on the Canadian outlook, resulting in lower terms of trade and national income. As well, transportation constraints and rising production have combined to push up oil inventories in the west and exert even more downward pressure on Canadian benchmark prices. While price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in Alberta, investment in Canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further".


15:00
Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)
14:36
Fed's Evans: Fed Has Time to Take Stock Before Next Rate Hike

  • Data Over First Half of Year Critical to Determining Fed Outlook

  • If Economy Plays out as Expected, Favors Move to Restrictive Policy

  • Good Outlook Would Favor Funds Rate of 3% to 3.25%

  • Economic Downside Risks Have Risen, but Upside Risks Still There

  • Expects Growth to Moderate to Just Above 2% This Year

  • Will Change Policy Outlook Depending on Economy's Performance

  • Sees Jobless Rate Down to Around 3.5% This Year

  • Expects Inflation to Go Just Over 2%, but That's OK

  • Symmetric Inflation Target Can Tolerate Inflation Overshoot

14:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.31%, S&P +0.30%
14:25
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.43%, NASDAQ futures +0.50%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, as growing expectations of a trade deal between the United States and China propelled demand for risk assets across the world.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

20,427.06

+223.02

+1.10%

Hang Seng

26,462.32

+586.87

+2.27%

Shanghai

2,544.34

+17.88

+0.71%

S&P/ASX

5,778.30

+55.90

+0.98%

FTSE

6,937.21

+75.61

+1.10%

CAC

4,842.13

+68.86

+1.44%

DAX

10,958.80

+154.82

+1.43%

Crude

$51.24


+2.93%

Gold

$1,286.00


+0.01%

13:55
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALCOA INC.

AA

28.5

0.25(0.89%)

1627

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

49.25

0.19(0.39%)

4527

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,667.72

11.14(0.67%)

78516

Apple Inc.

AAPL

150.67

-0.08(-0.05%)

607283

AT&T Inc

T

30.85

0.08(0.26%)

116393

Boeing Co

BA

343.6

3.07(0.90%)

19381

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

130.95

1.18(0.91%)

5231

Chevron Corp

CVX

112.61

0.84(0.75%)

8916

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

43.8

0.24(0.55%)

22069

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

55.82

0.36(0.65%)

58783

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

158

1.08(0.69%)

2401

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

72.8

0.76(1.06%)

9537

Facebook, Inc.

FB

143.39

0.86(0.60%)

148968

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

168

0.98(0.59%)

1051

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.43

0.06(0.72%)

141244

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.43

0.23(2.05%)

10896

General Electric Co

GE

8.59

0.03(0.35%)

407000

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

35

0.19(0.55%)

10605

Goldman Sachs

GS

176.1

0.73(0.42%)

2200

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,080.48

4.20(0.39%)

8

Home Depot Inc

HD

177.99

0.10(0.06%)

4113

Intel Corp

INTC

47.88

0.14(0.29%)

78491

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

121.25

1.42(1.19%)

13794

International Paper Company

IP

42.85

-0.51(-1.18%)

4669

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

130.6

0.64(0.49%)

9769

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

101.15

0.58(0.58%)

82195

McDonald's Corp

MCD

180.97

0.37(0.20%)

543

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

76

0.01(0.01%)

38570

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

103.4

0.60(0.58%)

97708

Nike

NKE

76.6

-0.13(-0.17%)

6965

Pfizer Inc

PFE

43.46

0.03(0.07%)

22713

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

92.8

0.34(0.37%)

1762

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

62.78

-0.84(-1.32%)

127265

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

335.62

0.27(0.08%)

40759

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

47.4

-0.08(-0.17%)

5453

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

31.99

0.19(0.60%)

39362

United Technologies Corp

UTX

109.98

1.08(0.99%)

460

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

244

0.71(0.29%)

949

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

57.76

-0.02(-0.03%)

16148

Visa

V

138.13

1.33(0.97%)

7589

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

95.36

0.16(0.17%)

20913

Walt Disney Co

DIS

111.75

0.33(0.30%)

6086

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

29.1

0.01(0.03%)

1900

13:49
Initiations before the market open

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; target $12

13:49
Downgrades before the market open

Int'l Paper (IP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo

NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird

13:48
Upgrades before the market open

Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Edward Jones

Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities

Travelers (TRV) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

13:16
Canada: Housing Starts, December 213.4 (forecast 205)
11:21
Bullard: Bond Market Continues to Warn Fed Policy Too Tight

  • Fed Coming Around to Idea of Holding Off on Rate Increases

  • Sees No Reasons to Change Balance-Sheet Plans

  • Expects Economy to Moderate to 2.25%-2.5% GDP Growth in 2019

  • Expects Jobless Rate to Be Little Changed in 2019

  • Fed Should Let Job Market Continue to Improve

  • Little Linkage Between Hot Job Market and Rising Inflation Now

  • Not Worried About Asset Markets, More Volatility Is Return to Normal

11:09
Fed's Bullard: Fed Rates in Right Place, No More Hikes Warranted

  • Fed 'Bordering on Going Too Far' and Pushing Economy Into Recession

  • If Economy Unexpectedly Weakens, Would Be Open to Rate Cuts

  • Steady Rate Policy Would Keep Inflation Near Target

  • Fed Has Done Enough Hikes to Pre-empt Any Potential Inflation Rise

  • Fed 'Will Be Flexible and Patient in Implementing Monetary Policy'

  • Fed Aware of Cross Currents Now Buffeting Economy

10:33
The euro area unemployment rate was 7.9% in November, down from 8.0% in October

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9% in November 2018, down from 8.0% in October 2018 and from 8.7% in November 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.7% in November 2018, stable compared with October 2018 and down from 7.3% in November 2017. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.

Eurostat estimates that 16.491 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 13.040 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November 2018. Compared with October 2018, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 107 000 in the EU28 and by 90 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2017, unemployment fell by 1.489 million in the EU28 and by 1.135 million in the euro area.

10:00
Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , November 7.9% (forecast 8.1%)
09:27
Italian employment was little changed in November

In November 2018 the number of employed people was substantially unchanged compared with October; even the employment rate was stable at 58.6%. The male employment increased while the female decreased.

After two months of growth, in November the number of unemployed people decreased (-0.9%, -25 thousand); the decline involved mainly women and persons aged 15-34. The unemployment rate dropped to 10.5% (-0.1 percentage points in a month) and the youth rate slight decreased to 31.6% (-0.6 percentage points).

In November, inactive people aged 15-64 rose (+0.2%, +26 thousand); the increase involved women and and extreme age groups, that is persons aged 15-24 and over50. The inactivity rate grew to 34.3% (+0.1 percentage points).

In the quarter September-November 2018 employment slightly went down compared with the previous quarter (-0.1%, -26 thousand). The decrease involved women and people aged 25-49.


08:21
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (YoY), December 0.7%
08:21
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (MoM) , December -0.3%
08:10
Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, December 729
07:50
Options levels on wednesday, January 9, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1572 (1965)

$1.1555 (414)

$1.1531 (546)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1467

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1413 (1424)

$1.1385 (2368)

$1.1353 (2795)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 66058 contracts (according to data from January, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (8545);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2918 (549)

$1.2878 (180)

$1.2847 (117)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2738

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2658 (132)

$1.2595 (638)

$1.2570 (1478)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 19130 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1710);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 21960 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:45
France: Consumer confidence , December 87 (forecast 90)
07:37
Swiss consumer price index fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous month

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached 0.9% in 2018. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The 0.3% decrease in the CPI compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for heating oil and fuel. In contrast, prices for overnight stays in hotels and new cars increased.


07:14
SNB says will report a loss in the order of CHF 15 billion for the 2018 financial year

According to provisional calculations, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will report a loss in the order of CHF 15 billion for the 2018 financial year. The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 16 billion. A valuation loss of CHF 0.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The net result on Swiss franc positions amounted to CHF 2 billion.

The allocation to the provisions for currency reserves will be approximately CHF 5.4 billion. After taking into account the distribution reserve of CHF 67.3 billion, the net profit will be in the region of CHF 47 billion. This will allow a dividend payment of CHF 15 per share, which corresponds to the legally stipulated maximum amount, as well as a profit distribution to the Confederation and the cantons of CHF 1 billion.

07:11
OPEC Not Playing Political Game With Trump, US is Major Consumer: UAE Energy Min

  • Says We Are Close to Five Year Average of Inventories

  • There Was Overproduction Due to Fear of Impact of Iranian Sanctions

  • Can't Afford Not to Have OPEC, if Some Leave, Others Join

  • Not Worried About Qatar's Exit from OPEC

  • Says Qatar Has No Significant Capacity

07:09
German trade balance showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros in November

Germany exported goods to the value of 116.3 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 95.7 billion euros in November 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports in November 2018 remained nearly unchanged on November 2017. Imports rose 3.6% in the same period. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were down 0.4% and imports 1.6% compared with October 2018.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros in November 2018. In November 2017, the surplus amounted to 23.8 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.0 billion euros in November 2018.


07:08
Australian building approvals declined 9.1% in November

Total dwelling units:

The trend estimate for australia fell 2.3% in november.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 9.1% in november.

Private sector houses:

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3% in november.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 2.6% in november.

Private sector dwellings excluding houses:

The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 5.0% in november.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 17.9% in november.

Value of building approved:

The trend estimate of the value of total building approved fell 0.8% in november and has fallen for 12 months. The value of residential building fell 1.6% and has fallen for 11 months. The value of non-residential building rose 0.6% and has risen for two months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.5% in november. The value of residential building fell 3.9%, while the value of non-residential building rose 11.1%.


07:01
Germany: Current Account , November 16.6 (forecast 25.5)
07:01
Germany: Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln, November 20.5
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 165.07 20204.04 0.82
Hang Seng 39.75 25875.45 0.15
KOSPI -11.83 2025.27 -0.58
ASX 200 39.2 5722.4 0.69
FTSE 100 50.72 6861.6 0.74
DAX 56.17 10803.98 0.52
Dow Jones 256.1 23787.45 1.09
S&P 500 24.72 2574.41 0.97
NASDAQ Composite 73.53 6897 1.08
00:29
Australia: Building Permits, m/m, November -9.1% (forecast -0.5%)
00:00
Japan: Labor Cash Earnings, YoY, November 2% (forecast 1.3%)

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