Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | China | PPI y/y | December | 2.7% | 1.6% |
01:30 | China | CPI y/y | December | 2.2% | 2.1% |
05:00 | Japan | Coincident Index | November | 104.9 | |
05:00 | Japan | Leading Economic Index | November | 99.6 | 99.5 |
07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | November | 1.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Eurozone | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | December | 1740 | 1714 |
13:30 | Canada | Building Permits (MoM) | November | -0.2% | -0.5% |
13:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, MoM | November | 0% | |
13:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, YoY | November | 0.1% | |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | January | 231 | 225 |
13:35 | U.S. | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
17:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | |||
17:45 | U.S. | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | |||
18:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks | |||
21:45 | New Zealand | Building Permits, m/m | November | 1.5% | |
22:30 | Australia | AiG Performance of Construction Index | December | 44.5 | |
23:30 | Japan | Household spending Y/Y | November | -0.3% | 0.2% |
23:50 | Japan | Current Account, bln | November | 1309.9 | 1384 |
Major US stock indexes ended in positive territory, recording a fourth consecutive sessional increase due to technology and other trade-sensitive sectors, following signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China.
Representatives of the two largest economies in the world completed trade negotiations in Beijing, which lasted longer than expected. Official representatives spoke positively about the meeting and said that the details will be published soon. This gives hope that the parties will be able to prevent an all-out trade war that could seriously harm the global economy.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose by almost 5% on Wednesday, as the extension of negotiations between the US and China in Beijing instilled hope that the two largest economies in the world will resolve their trade dispute. Some support for oil also had data from the US Department of Energy and the weakening US dollar.
Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (18 out of 30). The growth leader was Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 1.73%). The outsider was Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -2.12%).
Almost all sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The largest growth was shown by the commodity sector (+ 1.2%). Decline recorded only the utilities sector (-0.5%)
At the time of closing:
Dow 23,879.12 +91.67 +0.39%
S & P 500 2,584.96 +10.55 +0.41%
Nasdaq 100 6,957.08 +60.08 +0.87%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | China | PPI y/y | December | 2.7% | 1.6% |
01:30 | China | CPI y/y | December | 2.2% | 2.1% |
05:00 | Japan | Coincident Index | November | 104.9 | |
05:00 | Japan | Leading Economic Index | November | 99.6 | 99.5 |
07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | November | 1.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Eurozone | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | December | 1740 | 1714 |
13:30 | Canada | Building Permits (MoM) | November | -0.2% | -0.5% |
13:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, MoM | November | 0% | |
13:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, YoY | November | 0.1% | |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | January | 231 | 225 |
13:35 | U.S. | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
17:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | |||
17:45 | U.S. | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | |||
18:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks | |||
21:45 | New Zealand | Building Permits, m/m | November | 1.5% | |
22:30 | Australia | AiG Performance of Construction Index | December | 44.5 | |
23:30 | Japan | Household spending Y/Y | November | -0.3% | 0.2% |
23:50 | Japan | Current Account, bln | November | 1309.9 | 1384 |
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 439.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 8.1 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 10.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 13.3 million barrels last week.
"The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018. In particular, growth in the United States remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019. However, there are increasing signs that the US-China trade conflict is weighing on global demand and commodity prices.
Global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The lower prices primarily reflect sustained increases in US oil supply and, more recently, increased worries about global demand. These worries among market participants have also been reflected in bond and equity markets.
The drop in global oil prices has a material impact on the Canadian outlook, resulting in lower terms of trade and national income. As well, transportation constraints and rising production have combined to push up oil inventories in the west and exert even more downward pressure on Canadian benchmark prices. While price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in Alberta, investment in Canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further".
Data Over First Half of Year Critical to Determining Fed Outlook
If Economy Plays out as Expected, Favors Move to Restrictive Policy
Good Outlook Would Favor Funds Rate of 3% to 3.25%
Economic Downside Risks Have Risen, but Upside Risks Still There
Expects Growth to Moderate to Just Above 2% This Year
Will Change Policy Outlook Depending on Economy's Performance
Sees Jobless Rate Down to Around 3.5% This Year
Expects Inflation to Go Just Over 2%, but That's OK
Symmetric Inflation Target Can Tolerate Inflation Overshoot
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, as growing expectations of a trade deal between the United States and China propelled demand for risk assets across the world.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 20,427.06 | +223.02 | +1.10% |
Hang Seng | 26,462.32 | +586.87 | +2.27% |
Shanghai | 2,544.34 | +17.88 | +0.71% |
S&P/ASX | 5,778.30 | +55.90 | +0.98% |
FTSE | 6,937.21 | +75.61 | +1.10% |
CAC | 4,842.13 | +68.86 | +1.44% |
DAX | 10,958.80 | +154.82 | +1.43% |
Crude | $51.24 | +2.93% | |
Gold | $1,286.00 | +0.01% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALCOA INC. | AA | 28.5 | 0.25(0.89%) | 1627 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 49.25 | 0.19(0.39%) | 4527 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,667.72 | 11.14(0.67%) | 78516 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 150.67 | -0.08(-0.05%) | 607283 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.85 | 0.08(0.26%) | 116393 |
Boeing Co | BA | 343.6 | 3.07(0.90%) | 19381 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 130.95 | 1.18(0.91%) | 5231 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 112.61 | 0.84(0.75%) | 8916 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 43.8 | 0.24(0.55%) | 22069 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 55.82 | 0.36(0.65%) | 58783 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 158 | 1.08(0.69%) | 2401 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 72.8 | 0.76(1.06%) | 9537 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 143.39 | 0.86(0.60%) | 148968 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 168 | 0.98(0.59%) | 1051 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.43 | 0.06(0.72%) | 141244 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 11.43 | 0.23(2.05%) | 10896 |
General Electric Co | GE | 8.59 | 0.03(0.35%) | 407000 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 35 | 0.19(0.55%) | 10605 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 176.1 | 0.73(0.42%) | 2200 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,080.48 | 4.20(0.39%) | 8 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 177.99 | 0.10(0.06%) | 4113 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 47.88 | 0.14(0.29%) | 78491 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 121.25 | 1.42(1.19%) | 13794 |
International Paper Company | IP | 42.85 | -0.51(-1.18%) | 4669 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 130.6 | 0.64(0.49%) | 9769 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 101.15 | 0.58(0.58%) | 82195 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 180.97 | 0.37(0.20%) | 543 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 76 | 0.01(0.01%) | 38570 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 103.4 | 0.60(0.58%) | 97708 |
Nike | NKE | 76.6 | -0.13(-0.17%) | 6965 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 43.46 | 0.03(0.07%) | 22713 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 92.8 | 0.34(0.37%) | 1762 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 62.78 | -0.84(-1.32%) | 127265 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 335.62 | 0.27(0.08%) | 40759 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 47.4 | -0.08(-0.17%) | 5453 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 31.99 | 0.19(0.60%) | 39362 |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 109.98 | 1.08(0.99%) | 460 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 244 | 0.71(0.29%) | 949 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 57.76 | -0.02(-0.03%) | 16148 |
Visa | V | 138.13 | 1.33(0.97%) | 7589 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 95.36 | 0.16(0.17%) | 20913 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 111.75 | 0.33(0.30%) | 6086 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 29.1 | 0.01(0.03%) | 1900 |
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; target $12
Int'l Paper (IP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
NIKE (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Edward Jones
Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities
Travelers (TRV) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Fed Coming Around to Idea of Holding Off on Rate Increases
Sees No Reasons to Change Balance-Sheet Plans
Expects Economy to Moderate to 2.25%-2.5% GDP Growth in 2019
Expects Jobless Rate to Be Little Changed in 2019
Fed Should Let Job Market Continue to Improve
Little Linkage Between Hot Job Market and Rising Inflation Now
Not Worried About Asset Markets, More Volatility Is Return to Normal
Fed 'Bordering on Going Too Far' and Pushing Economy Into Recession
If Economy Unexpectedly Weakens, Would Be Open to Rate Cuts
Steady Rate Policy Would Keep Inflation Near Target
Fed Has Done Enough Hikes to Pre-empt Any Potential Inflation Rise
Fed 'Will Be Flexible and Patient in Implementing Monetary Policy'
Fed Aware of Cross Currents Now Buffeting Economy
The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9% in November 2018, down from 8.0% in October 2018 and from 8.7% in November 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.7% in November 2018, stable compared with October 2018 and down from 7.3% in November 2017. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.
Eurostat estimates that 16.491 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 13.040 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November 2018. Compared with October 2018, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 107 000 in the EU28 and by 90 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2017, unemployment fell by 1.489 million in the EU28 and by 1.135 million in the euro area.
In November 2018 the number of employed people was substantially unchanged compared with October; even the employment rate was stable at 58.6%. The male employment increased while the female decreased.
After two months of growth, in November the number of unemployed people decreased (-0.9%, -25 thousand); the decline involved mainly women and persons aged 15-34. The unemployment rate dropped to 10.5% (-0.1 percentage points in a month) and the youth rate slight decreased to 31.6% (-0.6 percentage points).
In November, inactive people aged 15-64 rose (+0.2%, +26 thousand); the increase involved women and and extreme age groups, that is persons aged 15-24 and over50. The inactivity rate grew to 34.3% (+0.1 percentage points).
In the quarter September-November 2018 employment slightly went down compared with the previous quarter (-0.1%, -26 thousand). The decrease involved women and people aged 25-49.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1572 (1965)
$1.1555 (414)
$1.1531 (546)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1467
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1413 (1424)
$1.1385 (2368)
$1.1353 (2795)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 66058 contracts (according to data from January, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (8545);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2918 (549)
$1.2878 (180)
$1.2847 (117)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2738
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2658 (132)
$1.2595 (638)
$1.2570 (1478)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 19130 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1710);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 21960 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 8
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached 0.9% in 2018. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
The 0.3% decrease in the CPI compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for heating oil and fuel. In contrast, prices for overnight stays in hotels and new cars increased.
According to provisional calculations, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will report a loss in the order of CHF 15 billion for the 2018 financial year. The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 16 billion. A valuation loss of CHF 0.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The net result on Swiss franc positions amounted to CHF 2 billion.
The allocation to the provisions for currency reserves will be approximately CHF 5.4 billion. After taking into account the distribution reserve of CHF 67.3 billion, the net profit will be in the region of CHF 47 billion. This will allow a dividend payment of CHF 15 per share, which corresponds to the legally stipulated maximum amount, as well as a profit distribution to the Confederation and the cantons of CHF 1 billion.
Says We Are Close to Five Year Average of Inventories
There Was Overproduction Due to Fear of Impact of Iranian Sanctions
Can't Afford Not to Have OPEC, if Some Leave, Others Join
Not Worried About Qatar's Exit from OPEC
Says Qatar Has No Significant Capacity
Germany exported goods to the value of 116.3 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 95.7 billion euros in November 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports in November 2018 remained nearly unchanged on November 2017. Imports rose 3.6% in the same period. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were down 0.4% and imports 1.6% compared with October 2018.
The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros in November 2018. In November 2017, the surplus amounted to 23.8 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.0 billion euros in November 2018.
Total dwelling units:
The trend estimate for australia fell 2.3% in november.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 9.1% in november.
Private sector houses:
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3% in november.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 2.6% in november.
Private sector dwellings excluding houses:
The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 5.0% in november.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 17.9% in november.
Value of building approved:
The trend estimate of the value of total building approved fell 0.8% in november and has fallen for 12 months. The value of residential building fell 1.6% and has fallen for 11 months. The value of non-residential building rose 0.6% and has risen for two months.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.5% in november. The value of residential building fell 3.9%, while the value of non-residential building rose 11.1%.
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | 165.07 | 20204.04 | 0.82 |
Hang Seng | 39.75 | 25875.45 | 0.15 |
KOSPI | -11.83 | 2025.27 | -0.58 |
ASX 200 | 39.2 | 5722.4 | 0.69 |
FTSE 100 | 50.72 | 6861.6 | 0.74 |
DAX | 56.17 | 10803.98 | 0.52 |
Dow Jones | 256.1 | 23787.45 | 1.09 |
S&P 500 | 24.72 | 2574.41 | 0.97 |
NASDAQ Composite | 73.53 | 6897 | 1.08 |
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