CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-09-2017

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $602.4 billion at the end of July, up 0.6 percent from the revised June level. Total inventories were up 3.3 percent from the revised July 2016 level. The June 2017 to July 2017 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.4 percent to up 0.6 percent.

The July inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.30. The July 2016 ratio was 1.33.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat investors preferred to remain cautious, bracing for a potential missile launch in North Korea and for Hurricane Irma to hit the Florida coast at the weekend.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,274.82 -121.70 -0.63%

Hang Seng 27,668.47 +145.55 +0.53%

Shanghai 3,365.44 -0.0568 0.00%

S&P/ASX 5,672.62 -17.27 -0.30%

FTSE 7,368.30 -28.68 -0.39%

CAC 5,106.47 -8.15 -0.16%

DAX 12,300.78 +4.15 +0.03%

Crude $49.03 (-0.12%)

Gold $1,355.30 (+0.37%)

EURUSD: 1.1850 (EUR 1.3bln) 1.1950 (1.2bln) 1.2000 (1.2bln) 1.2010 (505m) 1.2050 (585m)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Walt Disney (DIS) target lowered to $97 from $112 at FBR & Co.

Canadian industries operated at 85.0% of their production capacity in the second quarter of 2017, up from 83.2% in the previous quarter. This reflected the very strong growth in economy-wide production. This was the second straight quarter where the industrial capacity utilization rate exceeded the historical average of 83.1%.

The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector was the main source of the increase.

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, the capacity utilization rate in oil and gas extraction rose 3.3 percentage points to 84.0% in the second quarter, due to higher volumes of oil and gas extraction.

The capacity utilization rate in construction posted a third consecutive quarterly increase, rising from 86.4% to 87.7%. As in the previous quarter, the increase was mainly due to residential construction, and to engineering and repair work.

The capacity utilization rate in forestry and logging fell from 86.8% to 85.7% in the second quarter, a third consecutive quarterly decline. This decrease was attributable to a decline in activities in the industry.

The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, matching the most recent low of October 2008, the month prior to the 2008-2009 labour-market downturn.

An increase in the number of people working part time (+110,000) was mostly offset by a decline in the number of people employed full time (-88,000). While the increase in part-time employment was spread across the age groups, most of the decrease in full-time employment occurred for youth aged 15 to 24. The overall employment decline for youth was accompanied by a notable decrease in their labour force participation.

In the 12 months to August, employment rose by 374,000 (+2.1%), with gains in both full-time (+213,000 or +1.5%) and part-time work (+161,000 or +4.6%). Over this period, the number of hours worked increased by 2.2%.

NIESR monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in August 2017 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months to July: although activity has nudged higher, the economy continues to grow below its long run trend of some 0.6 percent. Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting at NIESR, said "We estimate that economic growth accelerated to 0.4 per cent in the three months to August. Our estimate is in line with our latest forecast for third quarter GDP which also stands at 0.4 per cent. Service sector output as well as industrial production appears to have contributed to the uptick in GDP growth.

Construction output contracted by 1.2% in the 3 month on 3 month series in July 2017 but remains at relatively high levels.

The 3 month on 3 month decline in output was due to decreases in both repair and maintenance, which fell 1.8% and all new work, which fell by 1.0%.

Construction output also fell month-on-month, falling by 0.9% in July 2017, predominantly driven by a 1.4% fall in all new work.

Both the month-on-month and 3 month on 3 month series fell for the fourth consecutive month in July 2017.

New orders fell 7.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 compared with the previous quarter, dropping to its lowest level since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

In the 3 months to July 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have increased by 0.3% compared with the 3 months to April 2017, due mainly to a rise of 2.2% in mining and quarrying.

The largest contribution to the rise in mining and quarrying in the 3 months to July 2017 came from oil and gas extraction, which rose by 2.6%, due mainly to a lack of maintenance, which has historically taken place in the month of June, although in some previous years this maintenance has occurred later in the summer.

In July 2017, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.2% compared with June 2017, due mainly to a rise of 0.5% in manufacturing; the largest contribution to the rise came from transport equipment, which rose by 7.6%.

Between the 3 months to April 2017 and the 3 months to July 2017, the total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £0.4 billion to £8.6 billion, due to a widening of the trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries, in turn primarily due to decreased exports and increased imports of finished manufactured goods.

Between the 3 months to April 2017 and the 3 months to July 2017, the trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries widened by £2.4 billion; this impact was partially offset by a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit with EU countries by £1.3 billion and a widening of the trade in services surplus by £0.7 billion.

Export and import prices of goods fell over the 3 months to July 2017 contributing to a more modest increase in trade in goods export and import values compared with a larger increase in goods export and import volumes.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) remained unchanged at £2.9 billion between June 2017 and July 2017.

In July 2017, output recovered slightly in the manufacturing industry (+0.3% after −0.9% in June), as well as in the whole industry (+0.5% after −1.1%).

Over the last three months, manufacturing output went up sharply in the manufacturing industry (+1.5%) as well as in the overall industry (+1.5%).

Output increased in all branches. It grew markedly in "other manufacturing" (+1.4%), in the manufacture of transport equipment (+3.1%), in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+1.9%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+1.1%). It increased slightly in the manufacture of food products and beverages (+0.4%). It soared in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+9.1%).

• Yet unclear whether weak inflation is temporary or more longer-lasting; next six months will be key to understand

• Hurricane Harvey effects to complicate economic assessments, though no major hit to economy

China's exports increased at a slower pace in August on softening global demand, while imports growth exceeded expectations.

Exports increased 5.5 percent year-on-year in August, slower than July's initially estimated 7.2 percent growth, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed Friday, cited by rttnews. Shipments were forecast to grow 6 percent.

At the same time, imports advanced 13.3 percent annually, faster than the expected growth of 10 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus totaled $42 billion in August versus the expected level of $48.5 billion.

The trade surplus with the US rose to $26.2 billion as exports gained 8.4 percent.

Germany exported goods to the value of 103.7 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 84.2 billion euros in July 2017. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 8.0% and imports by 9.4% in July 2017 year on year. Compared with June 2017, exports were up by 0.2% and imports by 2.2% in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017. In July 2016, the surplus amounted to 19.1 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.5 billion euros in July 2017.

According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 19.4 billion euros in July 2017, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods including supplementary trade items (+22.2 billion euros), services (-3.8 billion euros), primary income (+5.4 billion euros) and secondary income (-4.4 billion euros). In July 2016, the German current account showed a surplus of 18.3 billion euros.

Registered unemployment in August 2017 - According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 135,578 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of August 2017, 1'652 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment decreased by 7'280 persons (-5.1%). Youth unemployment in August 2017 The youth unemployment (15 to 24-year-olds) rose by 3'089 persons (+ 19.7%) to 18'752. Compared to the previous year, this corresponds to a decrease of 1,888 persons (-9.1%).

European stocks rose Thursday as eurozone economic growth figures were raised and the European Central Bank offered few surprises in leaving monetary policy intact. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.27% rose 0.3% to close at 374.95, little changed after the conclusion of ECB President Mario Draghi's news conference in Frankfurt. Only the financial sector finished in the red.

U.S. stock indexes ended slightly lower Thursday as investors sold financials, consumer-discretionary and telecommunication shares, with Disney and Goldman Sachs exacting a hefty toll on the Dow industrials. Investors were tracking Hurricane Irma and registering the latest policy stance from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's. The ECB left key interest rates unchanged, while Draghi indicated that the decision on how to taper a quantitative-easing program will come in October.

Asian markets were up -- apparently not affected by a massive data breach at Equifax or the impending arrival of Hurricane Irma on the U.S. mainland. Even U.S. stock futures were merely a mixed bag in early Friday trading.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2205 (3918)

$1.2151 (1840)

$1.2103 (4321)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2062

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2008 (213)

$1.1979 (2741)

$1.1943 (1978)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 158075 contracts (according to data from September, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (7093);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3251 (1765)

$1.3202 (2214)

$1.3155 (2376)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3132

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3085 (726)

$1.3043 (1058)

$1.2998 (1512)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 36002 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (2782);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 32222 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2587);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.90 versus 0.85 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.