CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-06-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -75.36 19909.26 -0.38%

TOPIX -6.68 1590.41 -0.42%

Hang Seng +88.90 26063.06 +0.34%

CSI 300 +27.11 3560.98 +0.77%

Euro Stoxx 50 +15.04 3563.88 +0.42%

FTSE 100 -28.64 7449.98 -0.38%

DAX +41.09 12713.58 +0.32%

CAC 40 -1.29 5264.24 -0.02%

DJIA +8.84 21182.53 +0.04%

S&P 500 +0.65 2433.79 +0.03%

NASDAQ +24.39 6321.77 +0.39%

S&P/TSX +50.94 15423.08 +0.33%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1204 -0,48%

GBP/USD $1,2742 -1,70%

USD/CHF Chf0,9677 +0,33%

USD/JPY Y109,90 +0,11%

EUR/JPY Y123,13 -0,38%

GBP/JPY Y140,02 -1,59%

AUD/USD $0,7533 -0,21%

NZD/USD $0,7195 +0,01%

USD/CAD C$1,3515 +0,07%

01:30 Australia Home Loans April -0.5% -1%

01:30 China PPI y/y May 6.4% 5.7%

01:30 China CPI y/y May 1.2% 1.5%

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index April -0.2% 0.5%

06:00 Germany Current Account April 30.2

06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln April 25.4

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m April 2.0% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter II 2.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance April -4.90

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) April 1.4% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) April -0.5% 0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) April 2.3% 0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) April -0.6% 0.9%

12:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate May 0.2%

12:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Quarter I 82.2% 82.4%

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate May 6.5% 6.6%

12:30 Canada Employment May 3.2 11

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories April 0.1% 0.2%

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count June 733

Major US stock indices registered a slight increase after investors heard evidence of former FBI director James Komi.

The Komi, which investigated the alleged interference of Russia in the presidential election in 2016 in the US, said that it did not doubt that Russia was trying to interfere in the elections, but was sure that this did not affect the vote.

In addition, as it became known, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting that the labor market is tightening, despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 245,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending June 3, the Ministry of Labor said on Thursday.

At the same time, the data from IBD / TIPP showed that the index of economic optimism in the US, calculated by the Investor's Business Daily newspaper and the research firm TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, was 51.3 points in June, which coincided with the indicator for May. Experts expected that the figure will rise to 51.6 points.

Most components of the DOW index closed in the red (17 out of 30). Most fell shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, -1.46%). The leader of growth was the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, + 1.57%).

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The leader of growth was the financial sector (+ 0.8%). The utilities sector fell most of all (-0.8%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.04% 21,182.60 +8.91

Nasdaq + 0.39% 6.321.76 +24.38

S & P + 0.03% 2.433.78 + 0.64

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 351m) 1.1130 (245m) 111.50 (361m) 1.1200 (1.7bln) 1.1220-25 (464m) 1.1250 210m) 1.1280 (245m) 1.1300 (200m) 1.1350 (370m) 1.1400 (225m)

USDJPY: 109.15 (USD 342m) 110.00 (980m) 110.30-40 (390m) 110.50 (210m) 111.30 (310m) 111.50 (205m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 371m) 1.2945-55 (335m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400-05 (AUD 485m) 0.7450 (560m) 0.7480-90 (620m) 0.7500-05 (1.17bln) 0.7540-50 (435m)

USDCAD: 1.3400 (USD 200m) 1.3430-40 (460m) 1.3470-80 (260m) 1.3500 (195m)

NZDUSD: 0.7085 (NZD 412m)

EURJPY 124.30-40 (EUR 250m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on the back of the news the European Central Bank left rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone, and ahead of former FBI Director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,909.26 -75.36 -0.38%

Hang Seng 26,063.06 +88.90 +0.34%

Shanghai 3,150.93 +10.61 +0.34%

S&P/ASX 5,676.60 +9.42 +0.17%

FTSE 7,463.46 -15.16 -0.20%

CAC 5,315.37 +46.15 +0.88%

DAX 12,707.59 +35.10 +0.28%

Crude $45.36 (-0.79%)

Gold $1,285.60 (-0.60%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

McDonald's (MCD) target raised to $165 from $157 at Credit Suisse

• Ecb's Constancio says popular rescue decision triggered by bank run

• Draghi says underlying inflation low

• Ecb expects 2018 inflation at 1.3 pct vs 1.6 pct in march

• Draghi says surveys point to solid broad based grwoth

• 2018 gdp growth at 1.8 pct vs 1.7 in march

• Sluggish reform effort dampens recovery

• 2019 gdp growth at 1.7 pct vs 1.6 in march

• Draghi says downside risks relatiing to global factors persist

• Positive momentum increases chance of stronger upswing

In the week ending June 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 248,000 to 255,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 238,000 to 239,750.

• Economy to expander fraster than expected

• Very substantial degree of monetary accommodation still needed

• Momentum stronger in euro area economy

• Underlying inflation subdued

• Expansion yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics

The trend in housing starts was 214,621 units in May 2017, compared to 213,435 units in April 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"Housing starts trended higher in May in Canada's urban areas", said Bob Dugan, CMHC's Chief Economist. "Row and apartment units led the upward move, while construction has slowed for pricier single- and semi-detached houses."

Apartment construction continues to drive the residential market in Halifax with year-to-date apartment starts more than double 2016 levels. The single-detached demand is also picking up pace following a couple years of decline. Year-to date, single-detached construction has grown by 16 percent.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1270 1.1285 1.1300 1.1320 1.1335 1.1350 1.1380 1.1400

Bids: 1.1225-30 1.1200 1.1180 1.1150 1.1120 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2985 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050 1.3080 1.3100 1.3160 1.3200

Bids: 1.2950 1.2930 1.2900 1.2880-85 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750 1.2700

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.80 124.00 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 122.30 122.00 121.85 121.65 121.50 121.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8700 0.8730 0.8750 0.8765 0.8785 0.8800 0.8830 0.8850

Bids: 0.8665 0.8650 0.8635 0.8600 0.8585 0.8550 0.8500

USD/JPY

Offers: 110.00 110.20 110.50 110.80 111.00

Bids: 109.35 109.20 109.00 108.80 108.50 108.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7560 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7650

Bids: 0.7530 0.7500-05 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450

"At today's meeting, which was held in Tallinn, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, are intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases will be made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today".

• 8-point lead for Conservatives in Ipsos Mori poll compares with 5-point lead in Ipsos Mori poll from June 2

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the first quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2016, GDP grew by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28 in the first quarter of 2017, after +1.8% and +2.0% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the first quarter of 2017, GDP in the United States increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.0% (after +2.0% also in the previous quarter)

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 351m) 1.1130 (245m) 111.50 (361m) 1.1200 (1.7bln) 1.1220-25 (464m) 1.1250 210m) 1.1280 (245m) 1.1300 (200m) 1.1350 (370m) 1.1400 (225m)

USDJPY: 109.15 (USD 342m) 110.00 (980m) 110.30-40 (390m) 110.50 (210m) 111.30 (310m) 111.50 (205m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 371m) 1.2945-55 (335m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400-05 (AUD 485m) 0.7450 (560m) 0.7480-90 (620m) 0.7500-05 (1.17bln) 0.7540-50 (435m)

USDCAD: 1.3400 (USD 200m) 1.3430-40 (460m) 1.3470-80 (260m) 1.3500 (195m)

NZDUSD: 0.7085 (NZD 412m)

EURJPY 124.30-40 (EUR 250m)

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in May 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.5% compared with the same month in the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1367 (3406)

$1.1331 (5681)

$1.1286 (5391)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1262

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1206 (2334)

$1.1175 (4241)

$1.1136 (3169)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 82900 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (5904);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 108753 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5442)

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.31 versus 1.30 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3201 (2534)

$1.3102 (2962)

$1.3007 (4037)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2960

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2892 (1153)

$1.2795 (2828)

$1.2696 (7019)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 39118 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4037);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 51669 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (7019);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.32 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

• Conservatives of PM May would have a majority of 96 seats in parliament

• Poll conducted on june 6-7, after saturday attack in London

China's exports increased more than expected in May, the General Administration of Customs, cited by rttnews.

In dollar terms, exports advanced 8.7 percent year-on-year in May, faster than the 7.2 percent increase economists had forecast.

Likewise, imports climbed 14.8 percent, bigger than the expected 8.3 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus totaled $40.8 billion in May versus the expected surplus of $47.8 billion.

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,224m in April 2017, a decrease of $70m (2%) on the surplus in March 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $555m in April 2017, a decrease of $2,614m (82%) on the surplus in March 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $2,784m (8%) to $30,590m. Non-rural goods fell $2,497m (12%), non-monetary gold fell $373m (20%) and rural goods fell $73m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting rose $3m (8%). Services credits rose $156m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $171m (1%) to $30,035m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $198m (2%), non-monetary gold fell $153m (27%) and consumption goods fell $102m (1%). Capital goods rose $130m (2%). Services debits rose $152m (2%).

In April 2017,production in industry was up by 0.8% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In March 2017, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 0.1% (primary -0.4%) from February 2017.

In April 2017, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.4%. Within industry, the production of capital goods increased by 0.3% and the production of intermediate goods by 1.0%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease by 0.7%. Energy production was up by 5.7% in April 2017 and the production in construction decreased by 0.1%.

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 139,778 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of May 2017, 6,549 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.3% in April 2017 to 3.1% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 5,000 persons (-3.5%). Youth unemployment in May 2017 Youth unemployment (15 to 24 year olds) decreased by 1,260 (-7.8%) to 14'956. Compared to the previous year, this represents a drop of 1'767 persons (-10.6%).

European stocks ended a choppy session slightly lower on Wednesday, as investors took a cautious approach ahead of a jam-packed Thursday session that has the potential to shake up financial markets significantly. "On Thursday, markets will face the ECB monetary policy meeting, the testimony of former FBI James Comey and the U.K. General Election," said Richard Perry, market analyst at Hantec Markets, in a note.

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher Wednesday as the financial sector helped to cap a sharp drop in energy shares, ahead of potentially market moving events on Thursday, including the U.K. election and former FBI director James Comey Senate testimony.

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region were relatively quiet ahead of a number of news events with global implications, though South Korean stocks underperformed following the latest North Korean missile launch.