CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-03-2018

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08.03.2018
23:30
Japan: Household spending Y/Y, January 1.9% (forecast -1.1%)
23:26
Currencies. Daily history for March 08’2018:

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 60.33 -1.34%

Gold 1,322.50 -0.38%

23:25
Currencies. Daily history for March 08’2018:

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +115.35 21368.07 +0.54%

TOPIX +5.99 1709.95 +0.35%

Hang Seng +457.60 30654.52 +1.52%

CSI 300 +40.95 4077.60 +1.01%

Euro Stoxx 50 +35.92 3413.28 +1.06%

FTSE 100 +45.40т7203.24 +0.63%

DAX +110.21 12355.57 +0.90%

CAC 40 +66.27 5254.10 +1.28%

DJIA +93.85 24895.21 +0.38%

S&P 500 +12.17 2738.97 +0.45%

NASDAQ +31.30 7427.95 +0.42%

S&P/TSX +66.09 15538.70 +0.43%

23:25
Currencies. Daily history for March 08’2018:

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2311 -0,81%

GBP/USD $1,3812 -0,67%

USD/CHF Chf0,95104 +0,81%

USD/JPY Y106,19 +0,13%

EUR/JPY Y130,74 -0,68%

GBP/JPY Y146,679 -0,54%

AUD/USD $0,7785 -0,50%

NZD/USD $0,7257 -0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,2897 -0,11%

23:05
Schedule for today, Friday, March 09’2018 (GMT0)

00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY January 0.7% 0.7%

01:30 China PPI y/y February 4.3% 3.8%

01:30 China CPI y/y February 1.5% 2.5%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

07:00 Germany Current Account January 27.8

07:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln January 18.2

07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January -0.6% 0.5%

07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m January 0.5% -0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) January -1.3% 1.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) January 0% 1.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) January 0.3% 0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) January 1.4% 2.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter I 2.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance January -4.896

13:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate February 0.5% 0.3%

13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Quarter IV 85.0% 85.7%

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate February 5.9% 5.9%

13:30 Canada Employment February -88 20

13:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls February 15 15

13:30 U.S. Government Payrolls February 4

13:30 U.S. Average workweek February 34.3 34.4

13:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls February 196 191

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings February 0.3% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate February 62.7% 62.5%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls February 200 200

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate February 4.1% 4%

15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories January 0.6% 0.7%

17:40 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

17:45 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count March 800

21:13
Major US stock indexes rose slightly

The major stock indexes of the US ended the session above zero in anticipation of President Donald Trump's announcement of an increase in metal tariffs and amid fears that this move could trigger a global trade war.

According to the latest information, President Trump signed a decree on the introduction of tariffs for the import of metals. This decree sets a tariff of 25% for steel imports, 10% for aluminum imports, while Mexico and Canada do not fall under tariffs

The focus of attention of market participants was also data on the US labor market. The Ministry of Labor stated that the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits rose last week, retreating from the lowest level since 1969. Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 21,000 to 231,000, seasonally adjusted for the week to March 3. Economists were expecting 220,000 new applications. The four-week moving average, a more stable measure, increased by 2,000 to 222,500 people. But the number of repeated applications fell to 1,870,000 for the week to February 24.

The cost of oil declined markedly, and was on the way to a second consecutive weekly drop, due to the sharp strengthening of the dollar, as well as increased production and oil reserves in the US. The increase in crude oil reserves in the US, which was reported by the US Energy Ministry on the eve, was not as large as expected, given that reserves tend to grow by the end of winter, as refineries are carrying out maintenance. The US Energy Ministry reported that in the week of February 24 - March 2, oil reserves increased by 2.408 million barrels, to 425,906 million barrels. Expected to increase by 2.723 million barrels.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (22 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, + 1.80%). Outsider were the shares of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM, -1.50%).

Almost all sectors of S & P completed the auction in positive territory. The consumer goods sector grew most (+ 0.7%). The largest decline was in the commodity sector (-0.4%).

At closing:

Dow + 0.38% 24.895.21 +93.85

Nasdaq + 0.42% 7.427.95 +31.30

S & P + 0.45% 2.738.97 +12.17

20:00
DJIA +0.13% 24,834.31 +32.95 Nasdaq +0.33% 7,421.04 +24.39 S&P +0.28% 2,734.42 +7.62
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +45.40 7203.24 +0.63% DAX +110.21 12355.57 +0.90% CAC 40 +66.27 5254.10 +1.28%
15:12
Euro falls to session low vs U.S. dollar, last down 0.29 pct at $1.2339
14:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.37% Nasdaq +0.38%, S&P +0.27%
14:29
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.19%, NASDAQ futures +0.43%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday, as investors were encouraged by signs that President Donald Trump's planned steep import tariffs on steel and aluminum could exclude some key trading partners.


Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,368.07 +115.35 +0.54%

Hang Seng 30,654.52 +457.60 +1.52%

Shanghai 3,289.29 +17.63 +0.54%

S&P/ASX 5,942.90 +40.90 +0.69%

FTSE 7,162.42 +4.58 +0.06%

CAC 5,219.33 +31.50 +0.61%

DAX 12,224.20 -21.16 -0.17%

Crude $61.23 (+0.13%)

Gold $1,325.80 (-0.14%)

14:02
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

231.75

-1.91(-0.82%)

622

ALCOA INC.

AA

46.91

-0.08(-0.17%)

2914

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,527.50

-10.14(-0.66%)

103173

American Express Co

AXP

94.98

-1.09(-1.13%)

933

Apple Inc.

AAPL

175.39

-1.28(-0.72%)

256591

AT&T Inc

T

36.69

-0.18(-0.49%)

10801

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

11.8

-0.04(-0.34%)

10838

Boeing Co

BA

342.75

-6.17(-1.77%)

42267

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

150.5

-3.25(-2.11%)

17018

Chevron Corp

CVX

112.8

-0.85(-0.75%)

4668

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

43.91

-0.38(-0.86%)

25034

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

73.35

-0.71(-0.96%)

31727

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

157.02

-1.49(-0.94%)

1164

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

75.36

-0.82(-1.08%)

52809

Facebook, Inc.

FB

178.5

-1.28(-0.71%)

97048

Ford Motor Co.

F

10.51

-0.12(-1.13%)

70147

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

18.43

-0.27(-1.44%)

4308

General Electric Co

GE

14.51

-0.13(-0.89%)

252184

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

37.47

-0.46(-1.21%)

17257

Goldman Sachs

GS

263.7

-3.23(-1.21%)

13890

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,089.01

-6.05(-0.55%)

6204

Home Depot Inc

HD

179.11

-1.50(-0.83%)

3822

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

148

-1.33(-0.89%)

1102

Intel Corp

INTC

50.28

-0.43(-0.85%)

216767

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

154.76

-0.96(-0.62%)

2303

International Paper Company

IP

56.67

-1.03(-1.79%)

1085

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

127.5

-0.72(-0.56%)

2110

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

113.9

-1.26(-1.09%)

19107

McDonald's Corp

MCD

150.14

-1.06(-0.70%)

4022

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

54.03

-0.27(-0.50%)

4041

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

92.66

-0.66(-0.71%)

90035

Nike

NKE

64.4

-0.84(-1.29%)

1172

Pfizer Inc

PFE

35.66

-0.22(-0.61%)

4712

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

79.68

-0.34(-0.42%)

1567

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

56.6

-0.43(-0.75%)

6144

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

325.77

-2.43(-0.74%)

19889

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

43.75

-0.18(-0.41%)

5835

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

33.93

-0.50(-1.45%)

108534

United Technologies Corp

UTX

129.91

-1.70(-1.29%)

1262

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

224.2

-1.98(-0.88%)

845

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

48.6

-0.29(-0.59%)

4259

Visa

V

119.9

-1.16(-0.96%)

6877

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

88.21

-0.85(-0.95%)

19965

Walt Disney Co

DIS

103.98

-0.96(-0.91%)

3194

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

42.1

-0.56(-1.31%)

14425

14:00
Analyst coverage initiations before the market open

UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated with a Overweight at Barclays; target $265

14:00
Target price changes before the market open

Tesla (TSLA) target lowered to $347 from $367 at Citigroup

Exxon Mobil (XOM) target lowered to $81 from $84 at Citigroup; Neutral

13:52
Draghi says decision doesn't signal change in expectations or reaction function

  • Decision unanimous

  • There was reference surrounding output growth path

  • Asking for clarification on Latvia

  • Victory can't be declared yet

  • Policy will continue to be reactive

13:42
ECB sees 2018 inflation at 1.4 pct vs 1.4 pct seen in December

  • 2019 inflation at 1.4 pct vs 1.5 pct seen in dec

  • 2018 gdp growth at 2.4 pct vs 2.3 pct seen in dec

  • 2019 gdp growth at 1.9 pct vs 1.9 pct seen in dec

  • 2020 gdp growth at 1.7 pct vs 1.7 pct seen in dec

13:40
Draghi says rising protectionism is a risk. Euro extends gains, up 0.3 pct on day at $1.2445

  • Downside risks related to global factors

  • Inflation seen likely to hover around 1.5 pct for remainder of the year

  • Inflation to hover around current levels in coming months

13:37
Canadian municipalities issued $8.4 billion in building permits in January, up 5.6%

Canadian municipalities issued $8.4 billion in building permits in January, up 5.6% following a 2.5% rise in December. The value of permits for three components rose, while industrial buildings (-18.6%) and single-family dwellings (-1.3%) declined. The January increase was largely due to higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Ontario.

The value of permits for multi-family dwellings in Ontario rose 71.0% (+$404.3 million) to $974.0 million in January, more than offsetting the 39.7% decline (-$374.7 million) reported the previous month. Nationally, apartments accounted for approximately three-quarters of the value of permits for multi-family dwellings in January, while row houses made up just under 18%. The rest of the multi-family dwelling component is comprised of permits for doubles such as semi-detached homes, and minor residential additions and renovations (permits under $50,000).

13:36
U.S initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week

In the week ending March 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 220,500.

13:33
Draghi says growth to expand by faster pace than earlier

  • Underlying inflation subdued

  • Will monitor fx developments

  • Ample degree of monetary stimulus necessary

13:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, January 3.2%
13:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, March 231 (forecast 220)
13:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, February 1870 (forecast 1910)
13:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, January 0% (forecast 0.1%)
13:30
Canada: Building Permits (MoM) , January 5.6% (forecast 1.3%)
13:20
Canadian housing starts rose more than expected in February

The trend in housing starts was 225,276 units in February 2018, compared to 224,572 units in January 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts has been very stable since November 2017, masking offsetting trends for multi-unit and single-detached dwellings," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Multi-unit starts have trended higher in recent months in most major urban centres while single-detached starts have trended lower."

13:16
Canada: Housing Starts, February 229.7 (forecast 216.6)
12:48
ECB holds the interest rate at 0.00%. Press conference at 13:30 GMT

"At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases".

12:45
Eurozone: Deposit Facilty Rate, -0.4% (forecast -0.4%)
12:45
Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0% (forecast 0%)
12:41
ECB expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.00% but the press conference can bring surprises, both dovish or hawkish. Tapering scenarios possible which would see euro rally strong
11:16
Crude oil analysis

Crude oil on a daily chart, we can see that it is moving close to the upside trend of the chart pattern (Triangle).


If we watch the price rejecting new downside movements. in the smaller time frames, we might consider long entries in this commodity.


Therefore, our first target will be near to the downside trend and the second target could be slightly above it - speculating that the price will break above the chart pattern.


11:02
EU's Katainen says past examples of U.S. imposing steel tariffs led to "thousands and thousands" of U.S. job losses
10:20
EU Commissioner Dombrovskis says plans in place in case of "cliff edge" Brexit, but base scenario is orderly Brexit
09:24
German economy minister Zypries tells German tv we will have to respond to U.S. tariffs

  • Says we would need to make complaint to WTO

  • Free trade is the only way ahead

  • We would also try to talk with U.S.

09:21
Major European stock exchanges trading in the green zone: FTSE 7159.02 +1.18 + 0.02%, DAX 12259.11 +13.75 + 0.11%, CAC 5199.34 +11.51 + 0.22%
07:35
Options levels on thursday, March 8, 2017

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2512 (4605)

$1.2475 (5041)

$1.2448 (4694)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2401

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2366 (6547)

$1.2333 (2253)

$1.2292 (4745)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 133447 contracts (according to data from March, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6547);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4011 (1423)

$1.3972 (2423)

$1.3943 (3179)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3898

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3859 (2356)

$1.3829 (2099)

$1.3790 (2043)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 49536 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3179);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 45816 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2356);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:21
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.1 pct, DAX futures up 0.2 pct, CAC 40 futures up 0.3 pct, FTSE futures up 0.2 pct, IBEX futures up 0.3 pct
07:20
Chinese trade balance surplus much higher than expected din February

China's exports grew at a faster-than-expected pace in February, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Thursday, cited by rttnews.

In dollar terms, exports jumped 44.5 percent year-over-year in February, much faster than the 11.0 percent rise economists had forecast.

Imports climbed 6.3 percent in February from a year ago, slower than the expected growth of 8.0 percent.

The trade surplus totaled $33.74 billion in February, in contrast to the expected deficit of $5.7 billion.

07:18
Swiss unemployment rate down 0.1% to 2.9% in February

According to SECO surveys, at the end of February 2018, 143,930 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 5,231 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.3% in January 2018 to 3.2% in the month under review. Compared with the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 15,879 persons (-9.9%). Youth unemployment in February 2018 Youth unemployment (15-24 year-olds) decreased by 754 (-4.6%) to 15,791. Compared to the same month last year, this represents a decrease of 3,317 persons (-17.4%).

07:10
Huge decline for Germany's factory orders in January

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2018 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 3.9% on the previous month. For December 2017, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 3.0% compared with November 2017 (primary +3.8%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2018 a seasonally and working-day adjusted

-2.4% on the previous month.

In January 2018, domestic orders decreased by 2.8% and foreign orders decreased by 4.6% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 5.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 3.8% compared to December 2017.

07:00
Germany: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM), January -3.9% (forecast -1.6%)
06:52
10-year U.S. treasury yield at 2.877 percent vs U.S. close of 2.883 percent on wednesday
06:50
Australian trade balance surplus higher than expected in January
  • In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $94m in January 2018, a decrease of $55m on the surplus in December 2017.

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,055m in January 2018, a turnaround of $2,201m on the deficit in December 2017.

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,394m (4%) to $33,924m. Non-rural goods rose $869m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $770m (54%). Rural goods fell $312m (8%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $9m (17%). Services credits rose $77m (1%).

06:47
White House sees tariff "carve outs" for Mexico, Canada @AFP
06:45
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), February 3.2% (forecast 3.4%)
06:18
Global Stocks

Asia-Pacific stocks rebounded solidly Thursday, as markets in the U.S. and Europe stabilized overnight following weakness sparked by top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn's resignation.

Stocks across Europe finished with gains Wednesday, though shares of metal producers were hit after the resignation of White House economic adviser Gary Cohn. The former Goldman Sachs executive was widely seen as a markets-friendly and stabilizing force in the Trump administration and his departure further stokes worries about the likelihood of a global trade war.

The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower Wednesday as the resignation of top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn stoked fears of a trade war but the tech-laden Nasdaq bucked the trend to extend its winning streak to a fourth session.

03:16
China: Trade Balance, bln, February 33.74 (forecast 0.6)
00:30
Australia: Trade Balance , January 1.055 (forecast 0.3)

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