CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-11-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +389.25 22937.60 +1.73%

TOPIX +20.63 1813.29 +1.15%

Hang Seng +397.54 28994.34 +1.39%

CSI 300 +33.36 4054.25 +0.83%

Euro Stoxx 50 -23.59 3658.77 -0.64%

FTSE 100 -49.17 7513.11 -0.65%

DAX -89.52 13379.27 -0.66%

CAC 40 -26.61 5480.64 -0.48%

DJIA +8.81 23557.23 +0.04%

S&P 500 -0.49 2590.64 -0.02%

NASDAQ -18.65 6767.78 -0.27%

S&P/TSX +39.58 16131.79 +0.25%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1585 -0,20%

GBP/USD $1,3163 -0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9994 +0,21%

USD/JPY Y113,99 +0,27%

EUR/JPY Y132,06 +0,05%

GBP/JPY Y150,05 +0,23%

AUD/USD $0,7643 -0,61%

NZD/USD $0,6891 -0,76%

USD/CAD C$1,27751 +0,57%

06:00 China Trade Balance, bln October 28.61 39.50

08:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) September 107.2 106.7

08:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) September 117.7

10:45 France Trade Balance, bln September -4.5 -4.8

16:15 Canada Housing Starts October 217.1 210.0

16:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) September -5.5% -0.2%

18:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November -2.435 -2.800

23:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%

23:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

The main US stock indexes mostly fell: S & P was negatively affected by the fall in financial stocks, and Nasdaq dipped against the backdrop of a weak forecast by Priceline.

In addition, as shown by the survey of vacancies and labor turnover (JOLTS), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US, in September the number of vacancies increased to 6.093 million. Meanwhile, the indicator for August was revised upwards to 6,090 million from 6,082 million. Analysts had expected the number of vacancies to rise to 6.091 million. The vacancy rate was 4.0%, unchanged from August. The number of vacancies has changed little in both the private sector and the government segment.

Other data showed that the index of economic optimism in the US, calculated by the Investor's Business Daily newspaper and the research firm TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, increased significantly in November, reaching 53.6 points, which is a high reading since March 2017. Experts expected that the figure will increase only to 51.2 points compared to 50.3 points in October. The index value above 50 points indicates optimism. It is worth emphasizing that the index is above the level of 50 for 14 consecutive months, which is the longest series for more than a decade. At the same time, the index is now 9.2 points higher than in December 2007, when the economy entered a recession.

Oil fell in price on Tuesday after it showed the highest session increase on the eve of 6 weeks. The dynamics of trading affects the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which intensified after the strengthening of power by the Prince of Saudi Arabia.

Components of the DOW index finished trading mixed (14 in positive territory, 16 in negative territory). Outsider were the shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, -2.21%). The leader of growth was the shares of DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP, + 1.14%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The largest decrease was shown by the sector of conglomerates (-1.2%). The utilities sector grew most (+ 0.8%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.03% 23.554.48 +6.06

Nasdaq -0.27% 6,767.78 -18.65

S & P -0.02% 2.590.58 -0.55

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.1 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs
and discharges rate were little changed at 2.2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

AUD / CAD after having suffered a depreciation of,roughly 80 pips, has been showing an uncertainty in the trend to follow.

However, and in this scenario, it might be interesting to see if the price breaks the consolidation zone (the rectangle).

In this way we can consider short entries if the price breaks the consolidation below or long if the price breaks the consolidation above.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Tuesday as earnings season winds down and investor expectations shift to a much-awaited cut in corporate taxes.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,937.60 +389.25 +1.73%

Hang Seng 28,994.34 +397.54 +1.39%

Shanghai 3,415.14 +26.97 +0.80%

S&P/ASX 6,014.34 +60.56 +1.02%

FTSE 7,542.90 -19.38 -0.26%

CAC5,500.50 -6.75 -0.12%

DAX 13,456.47 -12.32 -0.09%

Crude $57.25 (-0.17%)

Gold $1,279.20 (-0.19%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Home Depot (HD) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts

EURUSD: 1.1650 (EUR 410m) 1.1680-90 (550m) 1.1700 (605m) 1.1810 (340m)

USDJPY: 110.80 (USD 620m) 111.75 (300m) 113.60 (325m) 114.50 (905m) 115.00(1.21bln)

GBPUSD: 1.3020-23 (GBP 300m) 1.3150 (830m) 1.3286 (240m)

AUDUSD: 0.7700 (AUD 310m)

USDCAD: 1.2565 (USD 830m) 1.2610 (240m) 1.3025(490m)

NZD/USD: 0.6950 (NZD 330m)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC Securities

• Trims medium-term demand forecast for its crude on higher non-opec supply view

• Sees demand for its crude rising to 33.10 million bpd in 2019, down from 33.70 mln bpd in 2016 report

• Says global oil demand could plateau in second half of 2030s if electric vehicles are adopted more rapidly

October saw a seventh successive monthly rise in sales at eurozone retailers. This was the longest period of growth in nearly 11 years. The expansion was broad-based across the "big-three‟ euro area economies. That said, the rate of growth eased amid weaker increases in France and Germany, and was only slight overall. The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI® - which tracks the month-on-month changes in retail sales in the bloc‟s biggest three economies combined - dropped to 51.1 in October, from 52.3 in September. In contrast, sales were down on an annual basis, thereby reversing the upturn seen in the previous survey period

House prices in the last three months (August-October) were 2.3% higher than in the previous three months (May-July). This is the fastest price growth, on this measure, since January.

Prices in the three months to October were 4.5% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. The annual rate in October is higher than in September (4.0%) and at its highest growth rate since February.

House prices rose by 0.3% between September and October, following a 0.8% increase in September. The average price of £225,826 is the highest on record and 2.8% higher than in January (£219,741).

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax Community Bank, said: "The annual rate of growth has continued to rise for the third month in succession, rising from 4.0% in September to 4.5% in October. The average house price is now £225,826 - exceeding last month's previous high. House prices in the three months to October were 2.3% higher than in the previous quarter, the fastest quarterly increase since January".

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1720 (3386)

$1.1695 (1260)

$1.1652 (758)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1591

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1563 (5785)

$1.1537 (8279)

$1.1506 (5994)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 147099 contracts (according to data from November, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8279);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3260 (1251)

$1.3231 (619)

$1.3213 (1281)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3143

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3107 (1118)

$1.3058 (1307)

$1.3027 (2353)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 38774 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3193);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 37962 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4620);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Expects economy to grow at an annual 3 pct rate over the next few years

• Signs conditions are easing in sydney house prices

• Rising AUD would slow economy

• Inflation remains low, likely to stay so for some time

• Global economy continuing to improve

• Unemployment expected to decline gradually

• Increased infrastructure investment supporting the economy

• Forecast for australian economy largely unchanged

"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve. Labour markets have tightened and further above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. Growth in the Chinese economy is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Australia's terms of trade are expected to decline in the period ahead but remain at relatively high levels.

Wage growth remains low in most countries, as does core inflation. Headline inflation rates are generally lower than at the start of the year, largely reflecting the earlier decline in oil prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has started the process of balance sheet normalisation and expects to increase interest rates further. In a number of other major advanced economies, monetary policy has become a bit less accommodative. Equity markets have been strong, credit spreads have narrowed and volatility in financial markets remains low.

The Bank's forecasts for growth in the Australian economy are largely unchanged. The central forecast is for GDP growth to pick up and to average around 3 per cent over the next few years. Business conditions are positive and capacity utilisation has increased. The outlook for non-mining business investment has improved, with the forward-looking indicators being more positive than they have been for some time. Increased public infrastructure investment is also supporting the economy. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high".

In September 2017, production in industry was down by 1.6% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In August 2017, the corrected figure shows an increase of 2.6%, thus confirming the provisional result published in the previous month.

In September 2017, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.6%. Within industry, the production of capital goods decreased by 2.7% and the production of consumer goods by 0.3%. The production of intermediate goods showed a decrease of 0.8%. Energy production was down by 4.3% in September 2017 and the production in construction increased by 0.4%

A pan-European stock benchmark closed slightly higher Monday, while German's main gauge pulled back from a record, as a drop for banks and telecoms limited gains and as a political shake-up in Saudi Arabia caused some jitters. A slowdown in services activity weighed on shares in Spain, already battered by the ongoing political crisis over independence for Catalonia.

Asia-Pacific stocks posted gains Tuesday after several days of little movement globally, allowing indexes in the region to hit fresh multiyear highs. A late-morning rush of buying, which some attributed to fresh foreign inflows, helped the Nikkei top its 1996 high and reach levels last seen in early 1992. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng hit a fresh 10-year high and Australia's benchmark XJO, +1.02% exceeded its 2015 peak to hit its highest point since early 2008.

Stocks rose moderately Monday, helping the three main stock benchmarks to close at all-time highs, marking the 26th time this year simultaneous records have been set, as well as the most ever records in a year. Healthy corporate earnings and megamerger talks between chip makers Broadcom and Qualcomm kept stocks in positive territory despite unsettling developments in Saudi Arabia where more than five dozen princes, ministers and prominent businessmen were purged over the weekend.