CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-09-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 49.11 +0.04%

Gold 1,354.00 +0.27%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +38.55 19396.52 +0.20%

TOPIX +6.24 1598.24 +0.39%

Hang Seng -90.84 27522.92 -0.33%

CSI 300 -19.58 3829.87 -0.51%

Euro Stoxx 50 +13.86 3447.66 +0.40%

FTSE 100 +42.85 7396.98 +0.58%

DAX +82.09 12296.63 +0.67%

CAC 40 +13.21 5114.62 +0.26%

DJIA -22.86 21784.78 -0.10%

S&P 500 -0.44 2465.10 -0.02%

NASDAQ +4.55 6397.87 +0.07%

S&P/TSX -35.30 15024.53 -0.23%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2018 +0,88%

GBP/USD $1,3095 +0,42%

USD/CHF Chf0,95033 -0,60%

USD/JPY Y108,38 -0,77%

EUR/JPY Y130,26 +0,05%

GBP/JPY Y141,927 -0,35%

AUD/USD $0,8043 +0,52%

NZD/USD $0,7227 +0,42%

USD/CAD C$1,21278 -0,85%

01:30 Australia Home Loans July 0.5% 1%

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln August 46.74 48.6

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current August 49.7 49.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook August 50.3

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) August 3% 3%

06:00 Germany Current Account July 23.6

06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln July 22.3

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m July -1.1% 0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter III 2.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance July -4.56

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) July 0.3% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) July 0.5% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) July 0.0% 0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) July 0.6% 1.7%

12:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate Quarter III 0.2%

12:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Quarter II 83.3% 85%

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate August 6.3% 6.3%

12:30 Canada Employment August 10.9 15

12:45 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July 0.7% 0.4%

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count September 759

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit July 12.4 15.1

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 462.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million barrels last week, but are near the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 6.3 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.0 million barrels last week.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, showed positive momentum this month, climbing another 1.7 percent to 53.4 and above the 12-month average of 51.

The index has now reached a year in positive territory, which is the longest stretch in more than a decade. It also remains the highest reading since March and has demonstrated positive momentum for the second straight month. The overall economic optimism is also now aligned with increases in the Presidential Leadership Index, which returned to its July level after experiencing a dramatic dip in August.

While ratings remain low, Trump's approval numbers climbed 12 percent to a reading of 40.2 (or 38 percent overall) from its lowest point last month. These readings come as IBD/TIPP celebrates completion of its 200th monthly poll in the the Economic Optimism Index series.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat investors kept an eye on Hurricane Irma, which heads toward Florida.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,396.52 +38.55 +0.20%

Hang Seng 27,522.92 -90.84 -0.33%

Shanghai 3,366.43 -18.96 -0.56%

S&P/ASX 5,689.88 +0.152 0.00%

FTSE 7,386.88 +32.75 +0.45%

CAC 5,128.49 +27.08 +0.53%

DAX 12,308.40 +93.86 +0.77%

Crude $48.82 (-0.69%)

Gold $1,347.90 (+0.66%)

EURUSD: 1.1650 (EUR 455m) 1.1765-70 (500m) 1.1950 (730m) 1.2000 (920m)

USDJPY: 108.50 (295m) 108.75 (560m) 109.00 (690m) 110.00 (630m)

110.45-50 (650m) 111.00 (645m)

GBPUSD: 1,2774 (GBP 255m)

EURGBP: 0.9042 (EUR 630m) 0.9050 (680m) 0.9100 (340m)

USDCHF: 0.9590 (USD 270m) 0.9625-30 (370m)

AUDUSD: 0.7875 (AUD 385m) 0.7900-05 (305m) 0.8025 (630m)

USDCAD: 1.2300 (520m) 1.2325 (300m) 1.2400-15 (760m) 1.2500 (550m) 1.2520(300m) 1.2650 (715m)

NZDUSD: 0.7200 (NZD 275m) 0.7350 (295m)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.5 percent during the second quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today,

as output increased 4.0 percent and hours worked increased 2.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual

rates.) From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 2.8-percent increase in

output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting a 1.8-percent increase in hourly

compensation and a 1.5-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.2 percent over the last four quarters.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) initiated with a Neutral at Macquarie; target $16

Amazon (AMZN) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; target $1300

• Ecb sees 2019 inflation at 1.5 pct vs 1.6 pct seen in june

• 2018 inflation at 1.2 pct vs 1.3 pct seen in june

• 2018 gdp growth at 1.8 pct vs 1.8 pct seen in june

• 2017 gdp growth at 2.2 pct vs 1.9 pct seen in june

• 2017 gdp growth at 2.2 pct vs 1.9 pct seen in june

• Need to monitor fx

• Underlying inflation ticked up, remain subdued

• Policy measures yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics

• Confident that inflation will head towards inflation aim

• Need to monitor impact on price stability

• This autumn will decide on calibration of policy beyond this year

• Very substantial degree of stimulus still needed

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, are intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases are made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28 during the second quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.5% in both areas. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2017, after +2.0% and +2.1% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2017, GDP in the United States increased by 0.8% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.3% in the first quarter of 2017). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.2% (after +2.0% in the previous quarter).

Economic activity is strong and inflation is close to the target of 2 per cent. Monetary policy needs to remain expansionary for inflation to continue to be close to 2 per cent. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at −0.50 per cent and is expecting, as before, not to raise it until the middle of 2018. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, as decided by the Executive Board in April.

The economic signals from abroad are good, but global inflation remains subdued. Compared with the forecast in July, there are now expectations of a somewhat more expansionary monetary policy in many countries that are important to Sweden.

Economic activity in Sweden is strong; GDP grew rapidly in the second quarter and the employment rate is at a historically high level. Inflation has continued to rise and in recent months been higher than expected. The outcomes are partly explained by temporary factors, but even disregarding this, inflation has been stronger than expected.

House prices in the last three months (June-August) were 0.1% higher than in the previous three months (March-May). Price growth, on this measure, has edged up for the first time since March.

• Prices in the three months to August were 2.6% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. The annual rate in August is higher than in July (2.1%), however it has fallen from a peak of 10.0% in March 2016 when transactions grew sharply ahead of the introduction of new higher stamp duty tax rates for buy to let and second homes that came into effect in April.

• House prices rose by 1.1% between July and August, following a 0.7% increase in July.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax Community Bank, said: "The annual rate of growth increased from 2.1% in July to 2.6% in August with the average house price now £222,293, which is just above the previous high of December 2016 (£222,190). "Recent figures for mortgage approvals suggest some buoyancy may be returning, possibly on the back of strong recent employment growth, with the unemployment rate falling to a 42 year low. However, wage growth is still lagging increases in consumer prices, which is likely to add pressure on household finances and increase affordability challenges for some buyers. "House prices should continue to be supported by low mortgage rates and a continuing shortage of properties for sale over the coming months."

• Says North Korea sees nuclear and missile programme as only means for self defence

• North Korea will not stop development of its nuclear programme

• We see from trump administration desire to defuse tensions over North Korea

• The trend estimate rose 0.3% in July 2017. This follows a rise of 0.4% in June 2017 and a rise of 0.4% in May 2017.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in July 2017. This follows a rise of 0.2% in June 2017 and a rise of 0.6% in May 2017.

• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in July 2017 compared with July 2016.

• The following industries rose in trend terms in July 2017: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.6%), Household goods retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), and Clothing footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.6%). Department stores (-0.3%) fell in trend terms in July 2017.

• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in July 2017: New South Wales (0.4%), Victoria (0.4%), Queensland (0.2%), Western Australia (0.2%), South Australia (0.2%), Tasmania (0.5%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%), and the Northern Territory (0.4%)

In July 2017, production in industry remained unchanged from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In June 2017, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 1.1% from May 2017, thus confirming the provisional result published in the previous month.

In July 2017, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.3%. Within industry, the production of capital goods and the production of consumer goods decreased by 0.3%. The production of intermediate goods showed an increase of 1.4%. Energy production was down by 4.7% in June 2017 and the production in construction increased by 0.5%.

European markets ended a choppy session slightly higher on Wednesday, with German stocks leading the charge higher as auto makers advanced after key ratings upgrades. Gains in the region, however, were kept in check by concerns over North Korea's nuclear program and insurance companies struggling as Category 5 Hurricane Irma barreled toward the U.S.

U.S. stock benchmarks closed slightly higher Wednesday after congressional leaders and President Donald Trump agreed to extend the debt limit deadline and fund the government through mid-December. The gains on Wall Street came as investors grappled with lingering concerns over North Korea, a "potentially catastrophic" Hurricane Irma, doubts about President Donald Trump's business-friendly agenda, news that a key Federal Reserve official is resigning, and persistent worries about elevated stock valuations.

Asian equities bounced back on Thursday, tracking overnight U.S. gains following a deal to extend the federal government's borrowing limit for three months. Recent tensions in the Korean Peninsula were a trigger for investors to take profit from this year's robust gains, with stock indexes in markets like Hong Kong, South Korea, India and Singapore notching double-digit increases.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 49.17 +0.02%

Gold 1,339.20 +0.01%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

NIKKEI -27.84 19357.97 -0.14%

SHANGHAI +1.56 3385.88 +0.05%

HSI -127.59 27613.76 -0.46%

ASX 200 -16.50 5689.73 -0.29%

FTSE 100 -18.79 7354.13 -0.25

DAX +90.83 12214.54 +0.75

CAC 40 +14.85 5101.41 +0.29

DJIA +54.33 21807.64 +0.25

S&P 500 +7.69 2465.54 +0.31

NASDAQ +17.74 6393.31 +0.28

S&P/TSX -30.32 15059.83 -0.20

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1912 +0,00%

GBP/USD $1,3040 +0,07%

USD/CHF Chf0,956 +0,11%

USD/JPY Y109,21 +0,45%

EUR/JPY Y130,20 +0,52%

GBP/JPY Y142,43 +0,52%

AUD/USD $0,8001 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,7197 -0,59%

USD/CAD C$1,2231 -1,19%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M July 0.3% 0.3%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance July 0.86 0.875

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) July 105.9 105.2

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) July 117.1

06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -1.1% 0.6%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln July -4.7 -4.5

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 714.3

07:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y August 2.1% 2.1%

07:30 United Kingdom Halifax house price index August 0.4% 0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter II 0.5% 0.6%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter II 1.9% 2.2%

11:45 Eurozone Deposit Facilty Rate -0.4% -0.4%

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) July 2.5% 2.2%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1942

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 236 241

12:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 5.4% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.1% 1.2%

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index August 60 61.3

15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories -5.392

16:15 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

23:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

23:50 Japan Current Account, bln July 935 2058.6

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.3% 1.0%

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 1.5% 4%