CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-08-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 49.32 -0.14%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +103.56 20055.89 +0.52%

TOPIX +7.82 1639.27 +0.48%

Hang Seng +127.68 27690.36 +0.46%

CSI 300 +19.21 3726.79 +0.52%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1.61 3505.80 -0.05%

FTSE 100 +20.23 7531.94 +0.27%

DAX -40.55 12257.17 -0.33%

CAC 40 +4.45 5207.89 +0.09%

DJIA +25.61 22118.42 +0.12%

S&P 500 +4.08 2480.91 +0.16%

NASDAQ +32.21 6383.77 +0.51%

S&P/TSX +66.01 15257.97 +0.43%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1794 +0,21%

GBP/USD $1,3034 +0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,9725 -0,02%

USD/JPY Y110,76 +0,08%

EUR/JPY Y130,63 +0,28%

GBP/JPY Y144,37 +0,11%

AUD/USD $0,7911 -0,21%

NZD/USD $0,7359 -0,73%

USD/CAD C$1,2676 +0,22%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's July 9

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln July 42.75 46.08

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook July 50.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current July 50 49.8

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) July 3% 3%

06:00 Germany Current Account June 17.3

06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln June 22.0

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln June -4.9 -5.1

12:15 Canada Housing Starts July 212.7

14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings June 5.666

22:35 Australia RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

Major US stock indices slightly added on Monday. The DJIA index once again reached a record high, and Nasdaq was reinforced by the growth of shares of technology companies.

Friday's data on the US labor market remains ahead of market participants, which turned out to be better than expected, thereby strengthening investor confidence that the Fed will announce plans to begin reducing its balance in September, and may raise rates again this year.

Meanwhile, today the report from the Conference Board showed that the index of employment trends in the US, which is a set of labor market indicators, improved significantly in July. According to the data, the July index of employment trends rose to 133.77 points compared to 132.42 points in June (revised from 133.07 points). In annual terms, the index rose by 4.8%. The Conference Board reported that in July 8 out of 8 components recorded a rise.

Quotes of oil fell slightly, which was due to concerns over the high volume of oil production by OPEC and the United States. At the end of May, oil producers, led by OPEC, concluded an agreement to reduce production by 1.8 million barrels a day until the end of next March. But since then, there have been doubts about the effectiveness of these reductions, as OPEC production reached a high of 2017 in July, and its exports reached a record high.

Components of the DOW index finished trading mixed (14 in positive territory, 16 in negative territory). Leader of growth were shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 1.45%). Outsider were shares United Technologies Corporation (UTX, -2.65%).

Most sectors of the S & P index showed an increase. The consumer goods sector grew most (+ 0.5%). The main material sector showed the greatest decrease (-0.2%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.11% 22,118.15 +25.34

Nasdaq + 0.51% 6.338.77 +32.21

S & P + 0.16% 2.480.85 +4.02

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 285m) 1.1675 (314m) 1.1800 (E896m) 1.1875 (283m)

USDJPY: 109.00 (USD 365m) 109.25 (295m) 110.75-80 (1.74bln) 111.00-05 (748m)111.35 (405m) 111.55-60 (862m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 430m) 1.3075 (400m) 1.3170-75 (300m) 1.3230 (550m)

U.S. stock-index futures rose slightly, as positive sentiment, bolstered by the July jobs report, which was released last Friday, continued to provide support to the market at the beginning of the new week.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,055.89 +103.56 +0.52%

Hang Seng 27,690.36 +127.68 +0.46%

Shanghai 3,279.54 +17.46 +0.54%

S&P/ASX 5,773.56 +52.97 +0.93%

FTSE 7,523.40 +11.69 +0.16%

CAC 5,199.59 -3.85 -0.07%

DAX 12,250.91 -46.81 -0.38%

Crude $49.03 (-1.11%)

Gold $1,262.70 (-0.15%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Visa, the payments provider, reported consumer spending in the UK fell for the third month in a row in July, marking the longest period of deterioration since the five-month sequence ending in February 2013.

According to the report compiled by IHS Markit on behalf of Visa, Consumer Spending Index (CSI) dropped to by 0.8 percent y-o-y, following a 0.2 percent y-o-y decline in June, signaling a further decline in household expenditure at the start of the third quarter.

Five of the eight broad spending categories recorded lower expenditure in July. The steepest reduction was seen in Transport & Communication (-6.1 percent y-o-y), followed by Clothing & Footwear categories (-5.2 percent y-o-y). Lower expenditure was also registered in Household Goods (-4.0 percent y-o-y) and Health & Education (-2.4 percent y-o-y) sectors. On the contrary, spending rose in Hotels, Restaurants & Bars categories (+6.0 percent y-o-y) and Recreation & Culture (+1.3 percent y-o-y).

Annabel Fiddes, Principal Economist at HIS Markit, said: "Reduced spending comes at a time when the UK economy has been expanding at a relatively modest pace, while households have been facing strong increases in living costs, and a slowdown in earnings growth. Notably, the latest ONS figures show total real pay falling at the quickest pace for nearly three years. Alongside the renewed squeeze on household budgets, uncertainties linger over the direction of the economy and the outcome of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, which is weighing down consumer confidence. All this makes it seem unlikely that consumer spending will recover in the current challenging conditions, and adds to expectations that the Bank of England will not hike rates anytime soon."

German research group Sentix reported its Investor Confidence Index for Eurozone fell to 27.7 points in August from 28.3 points registered last month, marking the second straight monthly decline.

According to the report, the current situation index climbed to 40 this month from 37.3 in the previous month, recording improvement for the eighth time in a row, the second longest series since 2001.

At the same time, the expectations index declined to 16 from 19.8, indicating that "the economic momentum has passed its zenith."

The report from Halifax and IHS Markit showed that the house prices in the UK rose 0.4 percent m-o-m in July after dropping 0.9 percent in June (revised from initially reported 1 percent fall). That was the biggest monthly growth since the end of 2016 and exceeded economist forecast of 0.2 percent advance.

On a three-month basis, however, the house prices fell 0.2 percent q-o-q in three months to July. That marked the fourth successive quarterly fall and the worst run since 2012.

Meanwhile, the prices in the three months to July were 2.1 percent higher than in the same period of 2016. That was lower than in June (+2.6 percent y-o-y) and the lowest annual rate since April 2013 (+2.0 percent y-o-y). Economists expected an increase of 2 percent.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax Community Bank, noted that the house prices continued to remain broadly flat, as "squeeze on spending power, together with the impact on property transactions of the stamp duty changes in 2016 now being realized, along with affordability concerns, appear to have contributed to weaker housing demand." However, he added that "a continued low mortgage rate environment, combined with an ongoing shortage of properties for sale, should help continue to support house prices over the coming months."

The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported that Switzerland's he consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3 m-o-m in July after dropping 0.1 percent m-o-m in June. That was in-line with economists' expectations.

In y-o-y terms, the CPI was up 0.3 percent compared to a 0.2 percent rise in the prior month and economists forecast for a 0.3 percent gain.

According to the report, the major negative contributors to the CPI performance in July were such groups as clothing and footwear (-0.8 percent m-o-m), transport (-0.7 percent m-o-m) and restaurants and hotels (-0.5 percent m-o-m).

On an annual basis, the biggest gains in prices were recorded in clothing and footwear (+2.6 percent), housing and energy (+1 percent), recreation and culture (+0.9 percent m-o-m) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.7 percent).

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that Germany's industrial production dropped 1.1 percent m-o-m in June after increasing 1.2 percent m-o-m in the prior month. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in June. That represented the first decline in the German industrial output since December 2016.

The major contributors to the June production fall were lower outputs of capital goods (-1.9 percent m-o-m), intermediate goods (-1.2 percent m-o-m), consumer goods (-0.7 percent m-o-m) as well as decreased construction output (-1 percent m-o-m). At the same time, energy production recorded an increase (-1.4 percent m-o-m).

Excluding energy and construction, production in the industry was down by 1.4 percent m-o-m in June.

The preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday that Japan's leading index, a gauge for the economy's performance months ahead, increased to 106.3 in June from 104.7 in May. That was the highest reading since March 2014 and slightly above economists forecast of 106.2.

Meanwhile, the coincident economic index for Japan, which reflects current economic conditions, rose to 117.2 from 115.8.

The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) revealed that job advertisements in Australia rose a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent m-o-m in July, after gaining 2.7 percent in June. That was the fifth straight month of increase and the highest number of job ads recorded since 2011.

The annual pace of job ads growth accelerated to 12.8 percent in July from 10.5 percent in the prior month.

David Plank, head of Australian economics at ANZ, said: "Recent data has shown a clear improvement in labour market conditions consistent with elevated business conditions, profitability and capacity utilization. In particular, the strength in full-time employment and a solid increase in hours worked (near 3.3% y/y) are quite encouraging. Among other things we think this strength has contributed to the lift in consumer confidence from its recent low point in April." However, he also noted that "several challenges remain and we expect the pace of improvement to moderate over the medium term."

The Australian Industry Group (AiG) reported that its construction index rose 4.5 points to 60.5 in July. That was the highest reading since the indicator's inception in 2005 and marked the sixth straight month of expansion in the sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction in activity.

According to the report, the July upturn in industry conditions reflected expanding activity across all four major construction sectors, namely the house building, apartment building, commercial and engineering construction sectors.

The activity sub-index recorded a solid improvement in July, rising 5.2 points to 58.3. New orders expanded in July by 2.7 points to 64.6 points, signaling the highest rate of expansion in new orders in the 12 years since the start of the survey. The supplier delivery index increased by 6.4 points in June to 59.2 points, indicating the highest rate of growth in almost three years. In addition, businesses increased their workforces, with employment index rising by 4.8 points to 59.0 points in July, marking the highest growth in almost three years. The input prices sub-index surged by 7.4 points to 73.6 points in July, pointing to the fact the cost pressures in the construction of building projects intensified during the month.

Stocks started the week higher in Asia, building on Friday's gains in the Americas and Europe after an upbeat U.S. employment report helped sentiment behind demand for goods from Asia. The report helped give The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index its best day in a month. The U.S. dollar was little changed Monday morning in Asia.

European stocks rallied on Friday as a jump in bank shares helped the regional benchmark overcome losses in shares of Swiss Re AG and British home builders. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.95% leaped 1% to end at 382.53, the biggest percentage rise since July 14, FactSet data showed. The benchmark finished at its highest level since July 26, with all sectors ending higher, led by consumer goods, industrial and telecom shares.

European stocks rallied on Friday as a jump in bank shares helped the regional benchmark overcome losses in shares of Swiss Re AG and British home builders. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.95% leaped 1% to end at 382.53, the biggest percentage rise since July 14, FactSet data showed. The benchmark finished at its highest level since July 26, with all sectors ending higher, led by consumer goods, industrial and telecom shares.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1942 (2108)

$1.1914 (2628)

$1.1868 (2568)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1796

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1677 (2171)

$1.1652 (2582)

$1.1623 (2504)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 111767 contracts (according to data from August, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (4652);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3221 (2579)

$1.3165 (963)

$1.3109 (863)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3056

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2962 (991)

$1.2910 (1575)

$1.2844 (1945)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 26589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (2579);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 23990 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2608);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.90 versus 0.98 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.