CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-09-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -122.44 19385.81 -0.63%

TOPIX -12.84 1590.71 -0.80%

Hang Seng +1.09 27741.35 +0.00%

CSI 300 +11.43 3857.05 +0.30%

Euro Stoxx 50 -9.56 3420.86 -0.28%

FTSE 100 -38.55 7372.92 -0.52%

DAX +21.50 12123.71 +0.18%

CAC 40 -17.41 5086.56 -0.34%

DJIA -234.25 21753.31 -1.07%

S&P 500 -18.70 2457.85 -0.76%

NASDAQ -59.76 6375.57 -0.93%

S&P/TSX -101.45 15090.15 -0.67%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1912 +0,14%

GBP/USD $1,3032 +0,81%

USD/CHF Chf0,95497 -0,27%

USD/JPY Y108,72 -0,88%

EUR/JPY Y129,52 -0,74%

GBP/JPY Y141,693 -0,06%

AUD/USD $0,7995 +0,63%

NZD/USD $0,7240 +1,12%

USD/CAD C$1,23763 -0,28%

00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY July -0.4% 0.5%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter II 0.3% 0.8%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter II 1.7% 1.8%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) July 1.0% 0.1%

12:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter II 1.4%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions July -3.60 -3.3

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln July -43.6 -44.6

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) August 54.7 56.9

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.75% 0.75%

14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing August 53.9 55.3

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index August 60.5

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $16.7 billion or 6.8 percent to $229.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 6.4 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $17.4 billion or 19.0 percent to $74.3 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up three consecutive months, increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $237.4 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged June increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $79.2 billion.

• Cites 'extremely welcome' positive shifts in economic outlooks of europe, japan, canada, china

• Downside economic risks to u.S. From abroad have dissipated

• Monetary policy should not be first line of defense against financial imbalances

• Expects 'short lived' effects from hurricane in monthly U.S. payrolls

• Inflation 'well short' of objective

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Tuesday as geopolitical concerns intensified after North Korea conducted its largest-ever nuclear test over the weekend.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,385.81 -122.44 -0.63%

Hang Seng 27,741.35 +1.09 0.00%

Shanghai 3,385.13 +5.55 +0.16%

S&P/ASX 5,706.23 +4.23 +0.07%

FTSE 7,402.37 -9.10 -0.12%

CAC 5,100.15 -3.82 -0.07%

DAX 12,163.47 +61.26 +0.51%

Crude $48.04 (+1.59%)

Gold $1,337.00 (+0.50%)

EURUSD: 1.1800 (EUR 670m) 1.1850 (695m) 1.1875 (730m) 1.2000 (1.5bln)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 405m)

GBPUSD:1.2940 (GBP 200m) 1.3000 (525m)

EURGBP: 0.9200 (EUR 1.5bln)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Home Depot (HD) resumed with a Buy at BofA/Merrill; target $170

Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

In July 2017 compared with June 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In June, the retail trade volume increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28. In July 2017 compared with July 2016, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.6% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU28.

The 0.3% decrease in the volume of retail trade in the euro area in July 2017, compared with June 2017, is due to falls of 0.9% for automotive fuel and of 0.5% for "Food, drinks and tobacco", while non-food products rose by 0.1%. In the EU28, the 0.2% fall in the volume of retail trade is due to decreases of 0.6% for automotive fuel and of 0.2% for "Food, drinks and tobacco", while non-food products remained stable. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Germany (-1.2%), Croatia (-1.1%), Estonia and Austria (both -1.0%), while the highest increases were observed in Slovenia (+1.4%), Romania and Sweden (both +1.2%).

UK service providers recorded solid rises in business activity and incoming new work during August, but rates of growth eased since July and remained notably weaker than seen on average in the first half of 2017. The latest survey also pointed to stronger cost pressures across the service sector, with the rate of input price inflation the fastest since February. Higher staff costs, fuel bills and prices for imported items contributed to another solid increase in average prices charged by service providers in August.

At 53.2 in August, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI Business Activity Index registered above the 50.0 nochange value for the thirteenth consecutive month. However, the index dropped from 53.8 in July and signalled the slowest pace of business activity expansion since September 2016.

Moreover, rates of growth in both total business activity and new contracts picked up from ten-month lows in July. Less positively, employment growth eased to a 16- month low and business expectations were the weakest in 2017 so far. Price pressures strengthened to a five-month high in the latest survey.

Commenting on the final PMI survey data, Trevor Balchin, Director, Economics at IHS Markit said: "The final PMI data for August confirmed the earlier flash estimate of a partial rebound in German growth following a slowdown in July. The Composite Output Index rose to 55.8 and new business expansion also strengthened. "The latest PMI data follow the official estimate of GDP expansion in the second quarter of 0.6% qr/qr and an upward revision for the first quarter to 0.7% qr/qr. Moreover, full-year growth in 2016 was also revised up to 1.9% in calendar-adjusted terms. "IHS Markit has increased its growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 2.3% and 2.1% respectively (calendar-adjusted).

This was signalled by the final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index matching July's reading of 55.7, down only marginally from the flash estimate of 55.8.

On current trend, output growth so far in the third quarter is slightly below its second quarter high, but remains among the best seen over the past seven years. August saw a strong expansion of manufacturing production, with the pace of increase regaining most of the momentum ceded in July. Service sector activity growth eased to a sevenmonth low, but remained above its long-term trend.

Although rates of expansion in business activity and new orders both eased, the rate of job creation was the strongest since prior to the global financial crisis. Higher staff costs led to a faster pace of input price inflation, while companies continued to raise their output prices modestly. Service providers remained confident that activity will rise over the coming year, despite sentiment easing.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 56.0 in August, down from 57.6 in July and signalling the weakest rise in service sector output since January. That said, activity continued to increase at a sharp pace, with growth recorded for the forty-sixth successive month. Respondents indicated that higher new orders was the main factor leading activity to rise.

• RBA says rising AUD would lead to slower econmic growth than otherwise

• Judged steady policy consistent with growth, inflation targets

• Global economy continuing to improve

• Growth expected to pick up gradually over the coming years

• House prices rising briskly in some markets

• Higher AUD is restraining price pressures

• Expects gradual increase in underlying inflation

• Housing debt has outpaced slow growth in incomes

• Some signs housing market starting to cool

• Drag following mining investment boom almost complete

The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) indicated that Chinese business activity growth picked up for the second month in a row during August. Furthermore, the latest expansion of activity was the strongest seen for six months, as shown by the Composite Output Index posting 52.4, up from 51.9 in July.

August data revealed that the latest expansion of overall business activity was underpinned by increased activity at both manufacturers and services providers. Notably, services companies registered the quickest upturn in business activity for three months. This was highlighted by the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index rising from 51.5 in July to 52.7. At the same time, goods producers noted a further modest increase in output that was little-changed from that seen in the previous month

Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2017, which is a slight acceleration compared to the previous quarter (revised from +0.3 % to +0.1 %). On the production side of GDP, both the industrial sectors and some service sectors contributed to growth in the 2nd quarter.

Manufacturing (+0.9%) grew again at a rate above the historical average, but was not able to keep up with the strong performance of the previous quarter. Moreover, value added in-creased markedly in the energy sector (+2.2 %). Two important service sectors also grew considerably in the 2nd quarter: the hotel and catering industry (+3.4 %), which had expanded only slightly in the previous quarter, and the financial sector (+2.7 %), which, after a decline in the 1st quarter, was able to resume the positive trend of the second half of 2016. However, some other service sectors performed only poorly. Value added fell slightly in trade (-0.2 %), public administration (-0.1 %) and the healthcare sector (-0.1 %), and stagnated in business services (+0.0 %).

European stocks closed higher for a third straight session on Friday, boosted by a news report saying the European Central Bank will likely wait until December to unveil a plan to taper its asset purchases. Softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data also helped spur a positive mood on the stock markets, as they were seen as weakening the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year.

U.S. stock-index futures fell Monday, with analysts blaming the drop on renewed worries about North Korea after the isolated nation conducted its largest-ever nuclear test. Futures for the main equity benchmarks were declining alongside European and Asian markets, putting the market on track for a selloff at Tuesday's open, as American stock exchanges are closed Monday for Labor Day.

Most Asian stock markets fell for a second day Tuesday as South Korea carried out military exercises amid mounting official criticism of North Korea's weekend nuclear test explosion. South Korean warships conducted live-fire exercises at sea following U.S. warnings of a "massive military response" after North Korea's nuclear test. The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting and American Ambassador Nikki Haley said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is "begging for war."

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2018 (5376)

$1.1980 (3367)

$1.1949 (4404)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1909

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1801 (2415)

$1.1770 (4433)

$1.1733 (3753)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 145269 contracts (according to data from September, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (6345);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3027 (3233)

$1.3001 (1238)

$1.2983 (1599)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2935

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2910 (1980)

$1.2878 (2724)

$1.2839 (2507)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 35688 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3233);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 31026 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2724);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.86 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 1

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.