CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-07-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +49.28 20081.63 +0.25%

TOPIX +8.93 1618.63 +0.55%

Hang Seng +132.96 25521.97 +0.52%

CSI 300 +39.70 3659.68 +1.10%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1.06 3478.41 -0.03%

FTSE 100 +10.37 7367.60 +0.14%

DAX +16.55 12453.68 +0.13%

CAC 40 +5.20 5180.10 +0.10%

DJIA -1.10 21478.17 -0.01%

S&P 500 +3.53 2432.54 +0.15%

NASDAQ +40.80 6150.86 +0.67%

S&P/TSX +22.51 15153.12 +0.15%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1350 +0,03%

GBP/USD $1,2935 +0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,9637 -0,12%

USD/JPY Y113,19 -0,10%

EUR/JPY Y128,47 -0,07%

GBP/JPY Y146,4 0,00%

AUD/USD $0,7602 -0,03%

NZD/USD $0,7286 +0,04%

USD/CAD C$1,2956 +0,17%

1:30 Australia Trade Balance May 0.555 1.1

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May -2.1% 2.0%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) June 0.2% 0%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) June 0.5% 0.3%

08:05 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

10:00 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

11:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report June 253 185

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) May -0.2% 2.6%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions May -0.37 -0.53

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1948 1939

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 244 243

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln May -47.6 -46.3

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) June 53.6 53

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 56.9 56.5

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June 0.118 -2.833

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June 56.7

23:30 U.S. FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Speaks

The main US stock indexes mainly increased, as the rise in price of shares in the technological sector offset losses in the segment of basic materials.

Investors also drew attention to the minutes of the June meeting of the Fed. In this document it was reported that the Fed is preparing to begin reducing the balance in the next months. "Several Fed executives expect that the reduction in the balance sheet will begin" within two months, "although some of them would prefer to wait until the end of the year," the protocol said. - Some leaders of the Fed are concerned that an earlier beginning of the reduction of the balance would signal a more rapid tightening of the policy. In addition, some Fed executives consider the reduction of balance as the reason for a less rapid increase in rates. " The protocol also reported that several executives think that inflation will remain weak due to the weakening of the connection between prices and employment. "Several Fed leaders who supported the rate hike in June are more concerned about the further rate due to weak inflation," the protocol showed.

In addition, market participants analyzed statistics on the United States. The Commerce Department's report showed that new orders for manufactured goods in the US fell more than expected in May, but orders for capital equipment were slightly stronger than previously reported, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains on the path of moderate growth. According to the report, orders fell by 0.8% in May after they fell by 0.3% in April. A decrease of 0.5% was expected.

However, a report published by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in New York showed that the business activity in New York improved significantly last month, surpassing the forecasts of analysts, and reaching its peak since April. According to the report, the index rose in June to 55.5 from 46.7 in May. Economists predicted that the index will be 51.1. The index, reflecting economic conditions in 6 months, deteriorated in June to 64.5 against 70.6 in May.

Most components of the DOW index showed a decrease (16 of 30). Outsider were shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, -1.73%). The highest increase was registered in Intel Corporation (INTC, + 2.75%).

Most S & P sectors completed the session in different directions. Most fell the sector of main materials (-1.3%). The leader of growth was the technological sector (+ 0.7%).

At closing:

DJIA 0.00% 21.477.97 -1.30

Nasdaq + 0.67% 6,150.86 +40.80

S & P + 0.15% 2.432.57 +3.56

Major U.S. stock-indexes were little changed, as gains in technology stocks were offset by steep declines in energy shares. Investors assessed worse-than-expected data on factory orders for May and awaited minutes of the FOMC's June meeting for clues on interest rate hikes and the balance sheet reduction.

Most of Dow stocks in negative area (16 of 30). Top loser - Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, -1.63%). Top gainer - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT, +1.32%).

A majority of S&P sectors in negative area. Top loser - Basic Materials (-1.28%). Top gainer - Technology (+0.53%).

At the moment:

Dow 21410.00 -26.00 -0.12%

S&P 500 2428.00 +3.00 +0.12%

Nasdaq 100 5641.25 +52.00 +0.93%

Crude Oil 45.35 -1.72 -3.65%

Gold 1222.20 +3.00 +0.25%

U.S. 10yr 2.33 -0.01

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $2.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $228.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 0.9 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.7 billion or 3.4 percent to $75.4 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $234.9 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April decrease. Transportation equipment, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $78.8 billion.

EURUSD: 1.1200 (EUR 310m) 1.1230 (295m) 1.1250 (460m) 1.1330-40 (670m) 1.1370 (280m) 1.1400 (285m)

USDJPY: 111.50 (USD 255m) 112.25 (400m) 114.60 (810m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 200m)

EURGBP: 0,8680-85 (EUR 330 млн)

AUDUSD: 0,7470-80 (AUD 580 м) 0,7550-60 (430 м) 0,7625-35 (530 м) 0,7720 (205 м)

USDCAD: 1,3010-20 (USD 390 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures rose slightly. Investors awaited minutes of the FOMC's June meeting for clues on interest rate hikes and the balance sheet reduction.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,081.63 +49.28 +0.25%

Hang Seng 25,521.97 +132.96 +0.52%

Shanghai 3,207.08 +24.28 +0.76%

S&P/ASX 5,763.25 -20.57 -0.36%

FTSE 7,371.93 +14.70 +0.20%

CAC 5,185.88 +10.98 +0.21%

DAX 12,454.80 +17.67 +0.14%

Crude $46.42 (-1.38%)

Gold $1,218.20 (-0.08%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Tesla (TSLA) target lowered to $180 from $190 at Goldman; Sell

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) target raised to $140 from $135 at Morgan Stanley

• Likely to keep monetary policy steady at july 19-20 rate review

In May 2017 compared with April 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 0.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In April the retail trade volume increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28. In May 2017 compared with May 2016, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.6% in both the euro area and in the EU28.

The 0.4% increase in the volume of retail trade in the euro area in May 2017, compared with April 2017, is due to rises of 1.7% for automotive fuel and of 0.6% for non-food products, while "Food, drinks and tobacco" fell by 0.4%. In the EU28, the 0.2% increase in the volume of retail trade is due to rises of 1.2% for automotive fuel and of 0.3% for non-food products, while "Food, drinks and tobacco" fell by 0.4%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Romania (+4.3%), Lithuania (+1.8%) and Hungary (+1.7%), while the largest decreases were observed in Finland (-1.2%), Slovenia and the United Kingdom (both -0.9%).

UK service providers indicated another slowdown in business activity growth during June, which largely reflected the weakest upturn in new work since September 2016. Survey respondents commented on subdued business and consumer confidence, alongside some instances of delayed decisionmaking around the election.

Meanwhile, service sector firms were the least upbeat about their year-ahead growth prospects since July 2016. In contrast, there was a slight pickup in the pace of job creation to its fastest for 14 months in June.

At 53.4, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI Business Activity Index posted above the 50.0 no-change mark for the eleventh successive month in June. However, the index was down from 53.8 in May and signalled the slowest expansion of service sector output since February. The average reading in the second quarter as a whole (54.3) was in line with that recorded during the first three months of 2017.

The eurozone economy enjoyed its best quarter for just over six years during the second quarter of 2017. Although output growth slowed slightly in June, continued robust inflows of new work and elevated business confidence kept the pace of job creation among the best seen over the past decade.

The final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell to a four-month low of 56.3 in June, but was above the earlier flash estimate of 55.7 and only slightly below April and May's sixyear record highs of 56.8. The average reading over the second quarter as a whole (56.6) was also the best outcome since Q1 2011.

The German service sector continued to expand solidly in June, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit. Total activity, new business and employment all increased at rates that were in excess of their respective long-run survey averages, albeit slower than in May. Output grew at the softest rate in five months. The latest survey data also signalled the weakest rise in average input costs since September 2016.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index remained well above the no-change mark of 50.0 in June, signalling ongoing growth of output at German service providers. The headline figure was above its long-run average of 53.2 but weakened from May's 55.4 to 54.0, indicating the slowest expansion since January.

EURUSD: 1.1200 (EUR 310m) 1.1230 (295m) 1.1250 (460m) 1.1330-40 (670m) 1.1370 (280m) 1.1400 (285m)

USDJPY: 111.50 (USD 255m) 112.25 (400m) 114.60 (810m)

GBPUSD: 1.2900 (GBP 200m)

EURGBP: 0,8680-85 (EUR 330 m)

AUDUSD: 0,7470-80 (AUD 580 m) 0,7550-60 (430 m) 0,7625-35 (530 m) 0,7720 (205 m)

USDCAD: 1,3010-20 (USD 390 m)

The Spanish service sector recorded a strong end to the second quarter of the year as growth of activity accelerated to a 22-month high on the back of a substantial rise in new orders. Rising workloads led companies to take on extra staff in increasing numbers. A positive economic environment was key to the latest improvements, with panellists generally expecting this to continue in coming months.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 58.3 in June from 57.3 in May. The reading signalled a substantial monthly rise in activity, and one that was the fastest since August 2015. Anecdotal evidence suggested that client demand had improved in line with strengthening economic conditions.

The ANZ Commodity Price Index lifted 2.1% (m/m) in June (+25% y/y). The continued surge in milkfat and sheepmeat prices led the charge, but there were declines for wool, wholemilk powder, casein, apples and aluminium. Overall dairy prices nudged up 2.9% in June (+49% y/y) and non-dairy prices increased 1.7% (+10% y/y). The NZD index slipped 1.6% m/m due to the stronger NZD, but this needs to be kept in perspective with local returns up 20% y/y.

The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a marginal increase in total Chinese business activity at the end of the second quarter. At 51.1 in June, the Composite Output Index fell from 51.5 in May to signal the slowest rate of expansion in a year. Latest data indicated that the slowdown in overall growth was driven by a weaker performance of the service sector.

The seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index posted 51.6, down from a four-month high of 52.8 in May, to signal the second-slowest increase in activity for 13 months (after April 2017). At the same time, manufacturing production growth picked up slightly since May, but remained marginal overall.

European stocks edged lower Tuesday, with the region's benchmark pulling back from its biggest rally in two months, as North Korea's latest missile launch dented appetite for risk. Trading volumes on Tuesday were lighter than usual as trading in the U.S. paused for the Independence Day holiday.

U.S. stock futures inched up Tuesday, as traders focused on Independence Day celebrations rather than making big bets. American stock exchanges and the bond market are closed for the holiday, after trading hours were shortened Monday.

Asian share markets were subdued for a second session on Wednesday as simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula supported safe-harbors including the yen, bonds and gold. A holiday in the United States and a dearth of major data kept activity muted, though minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting due later in the day could provide some impetus.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1469 (2684)

$1.1439 (1948)

$1.1410 (3517)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1353

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1332 (2206)

$1.1292 (2625)

$1.1246 (2211)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 77459 contracts (according to data from July, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4518);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3074 (2030)

$1.3041 (1992)

$1.3003 (2144)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2924

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2882 (2223)

$1.2840 (1345)

$1.2794 (3699)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 34780 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (2415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 34390 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3699);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.