CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-07-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 47.08 +0.02%

Gold 1,223.00 +0.31%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -23.45 20032.35 -0.12%

TOPIX -4.71 1609.70 -0.29%

Hang Seng -395.16 25389.01 -1.53%

CSI 300 -30.87 3619.98 -0.85%

Euro Stoxx 50 -12.34 3479.47 -0.35%

FTSE 100 -19.86 7357.23 -0.27%

DAX -38.18 12437.13 -0.31%

CAC 40 -20.82 5174.90 -0.40%

DJIA +129.64 21479.27 +0.61%

S&P 500 +5.60 2429.01 +0.23%

NASDAQ -30.36 6110.06 -0.49%

S&P/TSX -51.58 15130.61 -0.34%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1347 -0,14%

GBP/USD $1,2923 -0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9649 +0,13%

USD/JPY Y113,30 -0,08%

EUR/JPY Y128,56 -0,23%

GBP/JPY Y146,4 -0,19%

AUD/USD $0,7604 -0,64%

NZD/USD $0,7283 -0,12%

USD/CAD C$1,2934 -0,58%

01:45 China Markit/Caixin Services PMI June 52.8 52.9

07:50 France Services PMI (Finally) June 57.2 55.3

07:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) June 55.4 53.7

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) June 56.3 54.7

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 53.8 53.5

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) May 2.5% 2.3%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) May 0.1% 0.3%

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders May -0.2% -0.5%

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

EURUSD: 1.13000 (EUR 475m) 1.1350 (210m) 1.1475 (735m)

USDJPY: 111.95-00 (USD 935m) 112.25 (1bln) 112.50 210m) 112.80 (280m)

AUDUSD: 0.77700 (AUD 2.43bln)

NZDUSD: 0.7075 (NZD 190m)

In May 2017, compared with April 2017, industrial producer prices fell by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In April 2017 prices remained stable in the euro area and rose by 0.1% in the EU28. In May 2017, compared with May 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 3.3% in the euro area and by 3.7% in the EU28.

The 0.4% decrease in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in May 2017, compared with April 2017, is due to price falls of 1.3% in the energy sector and of 0.1% for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods and increased by 0.1% for capital goods and by 0.2% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.

June data revealed weaker growth momentum across the UK construction sector, with business activity, new work and employment all expanding at slower rates than in May. Survey respondents commented on signs of renewed risk aversion among clients, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook and heightened political uncertainty. The latest survey also indicated that construction companies were the least optimistic about their near-term growth prospects since December 2016.

At 54.8 in June, down from 56.0 in May, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered above the 50.0 no-change mark for the tenth month running. Although signalling a solid upturn in overall business activity, the rate of expansion eased from May's 17-month peak.

"Economic activity is strong and inflation is approaching 2 per cent. The Riksbank's monetary policy has contributed to this. But it has taken time to bring up inflation and a continued expansionary monetary policy is required for it to stabilise around 2 per cent. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at −0.50 per cent. The first rate increase is not expected to be made until the middle of 2018, which is the same assessment as in April. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, as decided in April.

International economic activity is increasing in line with the Riksbank's forecasts. The risk of setbacks has declined, although there is still economic and political uncertainty in many parts of the world. Global inflationary pressures are still subdued and monetary policy abroad is expansionary".

EURUSD: 1.13000 (EUR 475m) 1.1350 (210m) 1.1475 (735m)

USDJPY: 111.95-00 (USD 935m) 112.25 (1bln) 112.50 210m) 112.80 (280m)

AUDUSD: 0.77700 (AUD 2.43bln)

NZDUSD: 0.7075 (NZD 190m)

The number of unemployed registered in the offices of the Public Employment Service (SEPE) has fallen in June in 98,317 people in relation to the previous month. Thus, the total number of unemployed registered in the month of June stands at 3,362,811. It reaches its lowest level in the last 8 years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment in June fell by 21,668. In the last 12 months, unemployment has reduced by 404,243 people, the largest annual reduction in June of the entire historical series, maintaining an annual rate of reduction of close to 11%.

• Strongly condemns N.Korea missile launch that violates U.N. security council resolutions and ignores international warning

• Says N.Korea missile threatens security and people's lives not only of S.Korea but neighbouring countries

• Deeply disappointed N.Korea launched missile after he and U.S. president Trump called for restraint

• Employment growth has been stronger over recent months

• Indicators of labour demand remain mixed

• House prices rising briskly in some markets

• Rising AUD would complicate economic adjustment

• Various forward-looking indicators point to employment growth going forward

• Supervisory measures should help address debt risks

• Housing debt has outpaced slow growth in incomes

• Inflation expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens

"The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. The rise in commodity prices over the past year has boosted Australia's national income.

Headline inflation rates, having moved higher over the past year, have declined recently in response to lower oil prices. Wage growth remains subdued in most countries, as does core inflation. Further increases in US interest rates are expected and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility has been low.

As expected, GDP growth slowed in the March quarter, partly reflecting temporary factors. The Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment. At the same time, consumption growth remains subdued, reflecting slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt".

Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in May 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a rise of 1.0 per cent in April 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in household goods retailing (2.2 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.3 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.6 per cent), other retailing (0.6 per cent), and food retailing (0.1 per cent). These rises were offset by a fall in department stores (-0.7 per cent).

The rise in household goods was across all subgroups: electrical and electronic goods retailing (2.8 per cent), furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing (2.0 per cent), and hardware, building and garden supplies retailing (1.5 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in New South Wales (1.3 per cent), Victoria (1.2 per cent), South Australia (0.8 per cent), Western Australia (0.3 per cent), Tasmania (1.2 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (1.0 per cent). There were falls in Queensland (-1.1 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent) in May 2017.

European stocks broke a four-session losing streak on Monday, buoyed by the commodities sector after upbeat manufacturing data from China and a continued rally in oil prices. Banks also helped to lift the trading mood, rising on hopes of higher interest rates after hawkish comments from central bankers last week.

U.S. stocks on Monday closed the first day of trading in July and the second half of 2017 in positive territory-though off the day's best levels-on the back of a rally in energy and financials, but tech shares lagged behind. Gains accelerated in an abbreviated session ahead of the Fourth of July holiday on Tuesday, after an upbeat report on manufacturing.

More stock gains were posted early Tuesday in Asia following a holiday-shortened session in the U.S., where fresh selling in tech names continued to weigh across the Pacific. Meanwhile, South Korean stocks saw a brief, and modest, selloff after North Korea launched another ballistic missile. The Kospi SEU, -0.24% , which was fighting to stay in positive territory ahead of the news, was recently down 0.1% after dipping 0.4% earlier.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1469 (2684)

$1.1439 (1948)

$1.1410 (3517)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1363

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1332 (2206)

$1.1292 (2625)

$1.1246 (2211)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 77459 contracts (according to data from July, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4518);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3074 (2030)

$1.3041 (1992)

$1.3003 (2144)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2937

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2882 (2223)

$1.2840 (1345)

$1.2794 (3699)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 34780 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (2415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 34390 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3699);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 47.05 -0.04%

Gold 1,221.60 +0.20%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +22.37 20055.80 +0.11%

TOPIX +2.51 1614.41 +0.16%

Hang Seng +19.59 25784.17 +0.08%

CSI 300 -15.95 3650.85 -0.43%

Euro Stoxx 50 +49.93 3491.81 +1.45%

FTSE 100 +64.37 7377.09 +0.88%

DAX +150.19 12475.31 +1.22%

CAC 40 +75.04 5195.72 +1.47%

DJIA +129.64 21479.27 +0.61%

S&P 500 +5.60 2429.01 +0.23%

NASDAQ -30.36 6110.06 -0.49%

S&P/TSX -31.23 15182.19 -0.21%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1363 -0,53%

GBP/USD $1,2937 -0,69%

USD/CHF Chf0,9636 +0,56%

USD/JPY Y113,39 +0,88%

EUR/JPY Y128,85 +0,36%

GBP/JPY Y146,68 +0,21%

AUD/USD $0,7653 -0,44%

NZD/USD $0,7292 -0,56%

USD/CAD C$1,3009 +0,34%

00:01 U.S. Bank holiday

01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M May 1% 0.2%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 1.5% 1.5%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction June 56 55

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) May 4.3% 3.6%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM May 0% -0.1%

12:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

17:40 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index June 51.5