CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-03-2018

Consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in February, at its second highest level since 2004. Consumers based their optimism on favorable assessments of jobs, wages, and higher after-tax pay. The highest proportion of households since 1998 reported that their finances had improved compared with a year ago and anticipated continued gains during the year ahead. Economic news heard by consumers continued to be dominated by the tax reform legislation and net job gains, which was untarnished by the consensus view that interest rates would increase and stock prices would remain volatile.

U.S. stock-index futures tumbled on Friday, as investors as investors worried about the likelihood of a global trade war following the U.S. President Donald Trump's promise to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent tariffs on foreign aluminum.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,181.64 -542.83 -2.50%

Hang Seng 30,583.45 -460.80 -1.48%

Shanghai 3,254.58 -19.18 -0.59%

S&P/ASX 5,928.90 -44.40 -0.74%

FTSE 7,091.42 -84.22 -1.17%

CAC 5,159.97 -102.59 -1.95%

DAX 11,925.37 -265.57 -2.18%

Crude $60.83 (-0.26%)

Gold $1,324.90 (+1.51%)

• Close to agreeing terms of implementation period

• Existing models for relationship with EU would not work after brexit

• Other options mean significant reduction to access in each others markets, would affect supply chains

• Do not want to go back to a hard border in Ireland

• Will not let brexit set back progress made in Ireland or integrity of UK

• Need to strike new balance in new economic relationship with EU

• UK clear that it is leaving customs union, but new arrangements needed to avoid hard border in Ireland

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Home Depot (HD) initiated with Hold at Loop Capital

Deere (DE) initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Caterpillar (CAT) initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Barrick Gold (ABX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

Wal-Mart (WMT) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

This followed a 0.4% gain in November.

The output of service-producing industries edged up 0.1% in December, as increases in real estate and rental and leasing, the public sector and finance and insurance more than offset declines in wholesale and retail trade. The output of service-producing industries rose every month in 2017.

Goods-producing industries edged down 0.1% in December, following 1.0% growth in November. Declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors more than offset higher output from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.

• Fixed supply of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin would impart a deflationary bias if widely adopted

• Cryptocurrencies do not at present pose material risks to financial stability, major uk financial institutions have minimal exposures

• Cryptocurrencies raise a host of issues around consumer and investor protection, money laundering, terrorism financing and evasion of tax and international sanctions

• Has open mind about BoE creating its own digital currency, but does not appear to be a near-term prospect

In January 2018, compared with December 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In December 2017, prices increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU28. In January 2018, compared with January 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28.

The 0.4% increase in industrial producer prices in total industry in the euro area in January 2018, compared with December 2017, is due to rises of 0.6% for intermediate goods, of 0.4% for both capital goods and durable consumer goods and of 0.3% in the energy sector, while prices fell by 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy rose by 0.5%.

On 4 hour time frame chart we can see that since the price has broken the downside trend it starts a new bullish movement.

Also, we can see that the lows are become higher.

Therefore, we can expect a further appreciation on EUR/NZD.

Total business activity increased only marginally during the latest survey period, while new work decreased for the second month running. Anecdotal evidence suggested that fragile business confidence and ongoing political uncertainty remained key factors holding back client demand. At the same time, strong input cost pressures were reported in February, with higher raw material prices, fuel bills and staff wages reported by survey respondents.

At 51.4 in February, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index edged up from January's four-month low of 50.2. This signalled a marginal increase in construction output during February, with the index also weaker than seen on average in 2017 (52.3).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2364 (1191)

$1.2320 (1441)

$1.2294 (686)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2257

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2202 (598)

$1.2176 (714)

$1.2145 (2096)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 132675 contracts (according to data from March, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6694);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3898 (2881)

$1.3844 (1142)

$1.3810 (635)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3771

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3728 (2238)

$1.3682 (1611)

$1.3651 (1522)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 53609 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3775);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 49810 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2379);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 1

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 0.7% in January 2018 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In December 2017 and in November 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.1% and +2.7%, respectively. From December 2017 to January 2018 the index rose by 0.5%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, decreased by 0.1% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 0.7% in January 2018 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In December 2017 and in November 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.0% and +1.2%, respectively. From December 2017 to January 2018 the export price index rose by 0.3%.

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in January 2018 was in real terms 2.3% and in nominal terms 3.7% larger than in January 2017. The number of days open for sale was 26 in January 2018 and in January 2017.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (Census-X-12-ARIMA), the January turnover was in real terms 0.7% and in nominal terms 0.6% smaller than that in December 2017.

• In long run, BoJ policy's impact on regional banks will be quite big unless they make efforts to streamline operations

• Don't see negative interest rate itself as hurting regional banks' profits

• Don't see BoJ's bond buying facing limits

• BoJ will mull exit from easy policy if inflation target achieved during fiscal 2019

The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in January, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday, cited by rttnews.

That was well beneath forecasts for 2.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

The job-to-applicant ratio came in at 1.59 - unchanged from the previous month but missing expectations for 1.60.

The labor force participation rate was 60.5 percent - unchanged from December.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 61.19 +0.33%

Gold 1,317.70 +0.96%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -545.93 21178.54 -2.51%

TOPIX -32.65 1707.55 -1.88%

Hang Seng +199.53 31044.25 +0.6%

CSI 300 +25.45 4049.09 +0.63%

Euro Stoxx 50 -39.80 3399.16 -1.16%

FTSE 100 -56.27 7175.64 -0.78%

DAX -244.91 12190.94 -1.97%

CAC 40 -57.93 5262.56 -1.09%

DJIA -420.22 24608.98 -1.68%

S&P 500 -36.16 2677.67 -1.33%

NASDAQ -92.45 7180.56 -1.27%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2267 +0,60%

GBP/USD $1,3775 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,94166 -0,30%

USD/JPY Y106,23 -0,42%

EUR/JPY Y130,32 +0,19%

GBP/JPY Y146,338 -0,30%

AUD/USD $0,7755 -0,07%

NZD/USD $0,7249 +0,56%

USD/CAD C$1,28334 +0,01%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y January -1.9% 3.5%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted January -1.9% 0.9%

08:10 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction February 50.2 50.7

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) January 2.2% 1.6%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM January 0.2% 0.4%

10:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) December 0.4% 0.1%

13:30 Canada GDP QoQ Quarter IV 0.4%

13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) Quarter IV 1.7% 2%

15:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) February 95.7 99.5

18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count March 799