Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
08:30 | Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI | December | 57.7 | 57.2 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Private Loans, Y/Y | November | 3.2% | |
09:00 | Eurozone | M3 money supply, adjusted y/y | November | 3.9% | 3.8% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | December | 53.4 | 52.9 |
13:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Report | December | 179 | 178 |
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | December | 1701 | |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | December | 216 | 220 |
15:00 | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing | December | 59.3 | |
20:00 | U.S. | Total Vehicle Sales, mln | December | 17.49 | 17.2 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
08:30 | Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI | December | 57.7 | 57.2 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Private Loans, Y/Y | November | 3.2% | |
09:00 | Eurozone | M3 money supply, adjusted y/y | November | 3.9% | 3.8% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | December | 53.4 | 52.9 |
13:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Report | December | 179 | 178 |
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | December | 1701 | |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | December | 216 | 220 |
15:00 | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing | December | 59.3 | |
20:00 | U.S. | Total Vehicle Sales, mln | December | 17.49 | 17.2 |
The headline PMI dipped to a 15-month low amid a weaker rise in new business and the joint-softest expansion in output since September 2017. At the same time, the pace of job creation eased to an 18-month low, despite a further rise in backlogs. Notably, business confidence among manufacturers fell again in December, with the degree of optimism dipping to the lowest since October 2016. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures eased at the end of 2018.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted 53.8 in December, down from 55.3 in November. The latest headline figure suggested a weaker, but still strong, improvement in operating conditions across the goods producting sector.
Canadian manufacturers experienced a renewed slowdown in growth at the end of 2018, with both production volumes and incoming new work expanding at softer rates than in November. The pace of manufacturing job creation also moderated in December, partly reflecting a drop in business optimism to its weakest since February 2016.
At 53.6 in December, down from 54.9 in November, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) signalled the weakest improvement in overall business conditions since January 2017.
This would be the first rate increase in the year as the ECB reiterated it plans to keep interest rates at present levels "at least through the summer of 2019." The second interest rate increase--also a 20 bps hike--would take place in March 2020, together with the first 25 bp hike to the refinancing rate, says Camille de Courcel, Senior Rates Strategist at BNP Paribas. Slowing growth in 2020, however, is likely to prevent the ECB from raising the deposit facility rate above 0%, she adds - via WSJ.
BP and Royal Dutch Shell are both down about 1.7% after the price of a barrel of Brent crude declines 2.3% to $52.60, with U.S. light crude off 2.1% at $44.48
At 54.2 in December, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a six-month high, up from 53.6 in November.
The average PMI reading during quarter four of 2018 was the weakest since Q3 2016 (the quarter containing the first survey conducted after the EU referendum). The average posting during 2018 (53.9) was also below 2017 (55.9).
The rise in the PMI level during December was mainly driven by stronger inflows of new business and a solid increase in stocks of purchases. Movements in both mainly reflected Brexit preparations by manufacturers and their clients. Output also increased, but at a slower pace than during November.
After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI recorded a final reading of 51.4, unchanged from the flash estimate but down from 51.8 in November. Although extending the current run of expansion to five-and-ahalf years, the latest PMI reading was the lowest seen since February 2016.
Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “A disappointing December rounds off a year in which a manufacturing boom faded away to nearstagnation. “The weakness of the recent survey data in fact raises the possibility that the goods producing sector could even act as a drag on the overall economy in the fourth quarter, representing a marked contrast to the growth surge seen this time last year. The last three months of 2018 saw manufacturers report the worst quarterly performance in terms of production since the second quarter of 2013”.
Though output growth was sustained, the recent downturn in new orders deepened amid a steep and accelerated decline in exports.
More positively, data showed a solid increase in manufacturing employment as well as a cooling of input cost inflation to a 16-month low.
The headline IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI – a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy – slipped to 51.5 in December, down from 51.8 in November and its lowest reading since March 2016.
December data pointed to a deterioration in French manufacturing operating conditions for the first time since September 2016. The poor performance was underpinned by a second output contraction in three months and an acceleration in the decline of new orders. Employment and new work from abroad also fell further at the end of the fourth quarter, the latter at the fastest pace since April 2016.
The headline IHS Markit Italy Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) – a single-figure measure of developments in overall business conditions – posted below the 50.0 no-change mark for the third month running in December. At 49.2, the reading was up from 48.6 in November and signalled a slight monthly decline in the health of the sector.
Andrew Harker, Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the Italy Manufacturing PMI survey, commented: “December PMI data completed a worrying end to the year for Italian manufacturers, with firms continuing to struggle to secure new business. This is in marked contrast to the start of 2018 when the sector was experiencing strong growth. Moreover, with business confidence at a six-year low, there appears little sense of optimism that the current soft patch will come to an end in the near future."
The slowdown reflected weaker gains in both output and new work, whilst there was only a slight increase of employment as previous capacity pressures subsided. Confidence improved, however, reaching a three-month high.
The IHS Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – declined to 51.1 in December. Down from November’s 52.6, the latest PMI reading was the lowest recorded by the survey since August 2016 although, by remaining above the crucial 50.0 no-change mark, the headline index was able to extend its run of growth to over five years.
Preliminary estimates for December indicate that the index decreased by 0.4 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 2.0 per cent in November (revised). The non-rural and base metals subindices decreased in the month, while the rural subindex increased. In Australian dollar terms, the index increased by 0.6 per cent in December.
Over the past year, the index has increased by 10.5 per cent in SDR terms, led by higher coking coal, LNG and iron ore prices. The index has increased by 15.3 per cent in Australian dollar terms.
Consistent with previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information. Using spot prices for the bulk commodities, the index decreased by 2.1 per cent in December in SDR terms, to be 3.2 per cent higher over the past year.
Chinese manufacturing production increased slightly at the end of 2018, after stagnating in the prior two months. However, there were signs of softer demand conditions, as total new orders fell marginally, and companies reduced their output charges for the second month running. The latter was supported by the first drop in input costs for just over a year-and-ahalf. Looking ahead, business confidence was relatively subdued, and companies reduced their headcounts for the sixty-second month running.
The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy fell from 50.2 in November to 49.7 at the end of 2018, to signal a renewed deterioration in overall operating conditions. Though only slight, it was the first time that the health of the sector worsened since May 2017. After stagnating in the prior two months, production rose slightly during December. Notably, the rate of expansion was much softer than those seen earlier in 2018.
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