CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-01-2018

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -19.04 22764.94 -0.08%

TOPIX -1.47 1817.56 -0.08%

Hang Seng +596.16 30515.31 +1.99%

CSI 300 +56.55 4087.40 +1.40%

Euro Stoxx 50 -13.77 3490.19 -0.39%

FTSE 100 -39.67 7648.10 -0.52%

DAX -46.25 12871.39 -0.36%

CAC 40 -23.96 5288.60 -0.45%

DJIA +104.79 24824.01 +0.42%

S&P 500 +22.20 2695.81 +0.83%

NASDAQ +103.51 7006.90 +1.50%

S&P/TSX +100.86 16309.99 +0.62%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2058 +0,50%

GBP/USD $1,3593 +0,68%

USD/CHF Chf0,9716 -0,27%

USD/JPY Y112,28 -0,34%

EUR/JPY Y135,40 +0,15%

GBP/JPY Y152,616 +0,33%

AUD/USD $0,7828 +0,34%

NZD/USD $0,7101 +0,21%

USD/CAD C$1,25106 -0,45%

00:01 Japan Bank holiday

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) November -1.5%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y November -3.0%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI December 65.1 64.6

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. December 5.6% 5.5%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change December -18 -14

09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction December 53.1 53.2

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m November 1.4% 0.8%

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing December 58.2 58.2

19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

20:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln December 17.48 17.4

22:30 Australia AIG Services Index December 51.7

Major US stock indexes rose on the first trading day of 2018, helped by a rise in the price of shares in the commodity sector and the services sector.

In addition, data for December showed a marked improvement in the production conditions in the US. The latest growth was confirmed by a faster increase in output and new orders, supported by demand from customers. In accordance with the stronger production growth, employment has grown at the fastest pace since September 2014. Incomplete production has grown at the fastest rate since October 2015. Delays in the supply chain and an increase in the global demand for resources pushed up costs, while the inflation of procurement prices remains high overall. The inflation of the selling prices, however, is relaxed. Business confidence remained strong, due to more favorable demand conditions. The seasonally adjusted final index of purchasing managers in the US industry from IHS Markit (PMI) rose to 55.1 in December, compared with 53.9 in November. The last value of the index was the highest since March 2015, indicating a better health sector.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (20 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS, + 3.87%). Outsider were the shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV, -2.76%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The commodities sector grew most (+ 2.2%). The decrease was shown only by the utilities sector (-0.6%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.42% 24,823.53 +104.31

Nasdaq + 1.50% 7.006.90 +103.51

S & P + 0.83% 2,695.80 +22.19

USD/JPY has been following a bearish movement on the last few days.

However, as we can see on 4-hour time frame chart, the price is forming a chart pattern (head and shoulder) which can bring a more downside movements in this pair.

U.S. stock-index futures signaled higher open on Tuesday, the first trading day of 2018.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei -

Hang Seng 30,515.31 +596.16 +1.99%

Shanghai 3,349.05 +41.88 +1.27%

S&P/ASX 6,061.30 -3.80 -0.06%

FTSE 7,646.12 -41.65 -0.54%

CAC 5,279.13 -33.43 -0.63%

DAX 12,822.62 -95.02 -0.74%

Crude $60.32 (-0.17%)

Gold $1,315.40 (+0.47%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

McDonald's (MCD) target raised to $200 from $175 at BTIG Research

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Int'l Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill

On daily time frame chart, we can see that there is a chart pattern (Head and shoulders) which the price has already broken the neckline.

However, it may be interesting to trade when the price starts to correct its movement.

Therefore, our suggestion is to wait for the retest of that neckline in order to enter long in this pair.

Asian stock markets are mostly higher on Tuesday, the first trading day of 2018, as investors digested upbeat China manufacturing PMI data for the month of December. Sentiment was also boosted after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he is open to talks with South Korea. China Caixin manufacturing PMI showed a December reading of 51.5, beating expectations and also touching a four-month high. The Australian market recovered from a weak start and is edging higher. Gains by mining stocks helped offset weakness in oil stocks.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2130 (4380)

$1.2105 (3711)

$1.2076 (4165)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1998

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1944 (2317)

$1.1897 (4792)

$1.1849 (4677)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 98603 contracts (according to data from December, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (6158);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3597 (2965)

$1.3578 (4730)

$1.3562 (2514)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3499

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3440 (1987)

$1.3395 (2416)

$1.3348 (2087)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 33479 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4730);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 34511 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2803);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 29

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.