CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-11-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +408.47 22420.08 +1.86%

TOPIX +20.75 1786.71 +1.17%

Hang Seng +348.52 28594.06 +1.23%

CSI 300 -10.10 3996.62 -0.25%

Euro Stoxx 50 +23.45 3697.40 +0.64%

FTSE 100 -5.12 7487.96 -0.07%

DAX +235.94 13465.51 +1.78%

CAC 40 +11.00 5514.29 +0.20%

DJIA +57.77 23435.01 +0.25%

S&P 500 +4.10 2579.36 +0.16%

NASDAQ -11.13 6716.54 -0.17%

S&P/TSX +3.74 16029.33 +0.02%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1622 -0,20%

GBP/USD $1,3249 -0,26%

USD/CHF Chf1,00266 +0,59%

USD/JPY Y114,12 +0,42%

EUR/JPY Y132,64 +0,21%

GBP/JPY Y151,201 +0,17%

AUD/USD $0,7676 +0,27%

NZD/USD $0,6889 +0,07%

USD/CAD C$1,28605 -0,22%

03:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September 0.4% -1%

03:30 Australia Trade Balance September 0.99 1200

08:00 Japan Consumer Confidence October 43.9 43.6

09:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter IV -3 0

11:15 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.2%

11:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y September -0.2% 0.4%

11:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 56.1 56.7

11:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 60.6 60.5

11:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. October 5.6% 5.6%

11:55 Germany Unemployment Change October -23 -10

12:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) October 58.1 58.6

12:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction October 48.1 48.1

15:00 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter

15:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

15:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.5%

15:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435

15:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

15:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1893 1.897

15:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter III 0.2% 0.5%

15:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter III 1.5% 2.4%

15:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 233 235

15:30 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

19:20 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

The major US stock indexes finished trading mixed, the reason for which was a decline in the shares of the technology sector, and mixed data on the US.

As the report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed, activity in the US manufacturing sector fell sharply in October, retreating from the 13-year high reached in September. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector in October was 58.7 points against 60.8 points in September. Analysts had expected that this figure would drop only to 59.5 points.

At the same time, construction costs in the United States unexpectedly increased in September, as the surge in public construction costs offset the third consecutive monthly decline in investment in private projects. The Department of Commerce said that construction costs rose by 0.3% in September, to $ 1.22 trillion. However, the change in expenses for August was revised downwards to + 0.1% from + 0.5%. Economists predicted that construction costs would be reduced by 0.1%. Compared with September 2016, construction costs increased by 2.0%.

A certain impact on the course of trading also had the outcome of the Fed meeting. As was widely expected, the Fed kept the federal funds rate range between 1.00% and 1.25%. At the same time, the Fed left open the question of raising rates for the December meeting. "If the economic situation in the US continues to develop in a positive direction, the Fed may again increase the rate this year," the statement said. The Fed noted that the US economy remains strong, despite the effects of hurricanes, which are likely to have a temporary negative impact on economic activity, employment and inflation, but they probably will not be able to significantly change the medium-term prospects for the country's economy.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (21 out of 30). The leader of growth was shares of Intel Corporation (INTC, + 2.35%). Outsider were the shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, -1.45%).

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The base resources sector grew most (+ 0.9%). The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-0.5%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.25% 23.435.90 +58.66

Nasdaq -0.17% 6,716.53 -11.14

S & P + 0.16% 2.579.36 +4.10

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 454.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 4.0 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels last week.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October, and the overall economy grew for the 101st consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The October PMI® registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 60.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.4 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the September reading of 64.6 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 62.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the September reading of 60.3 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.4 percent, a 3 percentage point decrease from the September reading of 64.4 percent. The Inventories Index registered 48 percent, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the September reading of 52.5 percent.

The health of the sector improved to the greatest extent since January, supported by accelerated expansions in output and new orders. Moreover, export sales increased at the quickest pace since August 2016. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained marked despite the rate of input price inflation softening from September. Notably, employment rose at the strongest pace since June 2015.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index registered 54.6 in October, up from 53.1 in September. The latest index figure indicated a solid improvement in manufacturing operating conditions, that was the fastest seen since the start of the year.

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 580m) 1.1800 (750m)

USDJPY: 112.45-55 (USD 1.55bln) 112.65 (710m) 113.00 (810m) 113.25 (485m) 113.50 (520m) 113.75 (580m) 114.00 (920m) 114.45-55 (1.98bln)

GBPUSD: 1.3265 (GBP 605m) 1.3320 (240m)

AUDUSD: 0.7855 (AUD 350m)

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, as an upbeat third-quarter earnings season lifted investors' sentiment, while they awaited clues on future rate hikes from the latest Fed meeting.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 22,420.08 +408.47 +1.86%

Hang Seng 28,594.06 +348.52 +1.23%

Shanghai 3,396.07 +2.73 +0.08%

S&P/ASX 5,937.77 +28.75 +0.49%

FTSE 7,509.86 +16.78 +0.22%

CAC 5,526.99 +23.70 +0.43%

DAX 13,469.99 +240.42 +1.82%

Crude $54.91 (+0.97%)

Gold $1,276.40 (+0.46%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Facebook (FB) target raised to $215 at Aegis Capital

General Motors (GM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura

Barrick Gold (ABX) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; target lowered to $18

Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from September to October according to the ADP National Employment Report.

The job market remains healthy and hiring bounced back with one of the best performances we've seen all year," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Although the service providing sector was hard hit last month due to the weather, we saw significant growth in professional services, especially in the higher paid professional technical jobs. Additionally, small businesses rebounded well from the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, posting very strong gains." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market rebounded strongly from the hit it took from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Resurgence in construction jobs shows the

• Share of private sector bonds in QE can grow next year as buys will remain substantial

EUR/USD: 1.1860 (730m),1.1600 (580m)

USD/JPY: 114.60 (1.97bn), 114.00 (910m), 113.75 (580m), 113.50 (515m), 113.25 (485m), 113.00 (805m), 112.75 (350m), 112.65 (710m)

AUD/USD: 0.7855 (340m)

Production and new order volumes continued to rise at robust rates, as companies benefited from strong domestic market conditions and rising inflows of new export business. Price pressures remained elevated, however, with rates of inflation in input costs and output charges both accelerating and staying well above historical series averages.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index registered 56.3 in October, up from 56.0 in September (revised from the original reading of 55.9). The headline PMI has now signalled expansion for 15 consecutive months. Responses from the latest survey were collected between 12-26 October.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1763 (2500)

$1.1729 (2575)

$1.1692 (758)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1644

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1589 (5999)

$1.1545 (4329)

$1.1498 (3556)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 120415 contracts (according to data from October, 31) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (10007);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3362 (3368)

$1.3341 (1070)

$1.3326 (4288)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3301

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3262 (1261)

$1.3239 (2159)

$1.3210 (912)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 3 is 44851 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (4288);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 3 is 37641 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3196);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.84 versus 0.85 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 31

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Annual house price growth picks up to 2.5%

• Modest 0.2% month-on-month increase

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The annual rate of house price growth picked up slightly in October to 2.5%, from a revised 2.3% in September . "Nevertheless, annual house price growth remains within the 2-4% range that has prevailing since March. Low mortgage rates and healthy rates of employment growth are providing some support for demand, but this is being partly offset by pressure on household incomes, which appears to be weighing on confidence. The lack of homes on the market is providing support to house prices".

Europe's benchmark stock index scored a more-than-five-month closing high on Tuesday, capping off October with a monthly gain as traders welcomed earnings reports from the likes of airline Ryanair Holdings PLC and oil major BP PLC.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq ending at a record and major indexes overall wrapping up a strong October as quarterly results kept equities drifting near all-time highs.

Equities markets mostly began November on a strong note after big gains in October, but New Zealand stocks were a noted laggard even with a much-stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Asian shares were higher Wednesday on optimism about global economic growth following gains on Wall Street.

In the September 2017 quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent (down 0.2 percentage points from the June quarter), the lowest unemployment rate since the December 2008 quarter. The number of unemployed people fell 2,000 from 128,000 to 126,000.

The unemployment rate for men fell to 4.1 percent (down 0.6 percentage points).

The unemployment rate for women rose to 5.3 percent (up 0.4 percentage points).

The seasonally adjusted underutilisation rate remained at 11.8 percent over the quarter, and dropped 0.5 percentage points annually. This annual decrease was primarily due to fewer available potential jobseekers (those who wanted to work and were available in the reference week, but were not actively applying for jobs).

Operating conditions for Japanese manufacturers continued to improve during October, underpinned by solid expansions in output, new orders and employment. However, robust growth across the sector coincided with the lowest level of business confidence in 11 months. On the price front, input cost inflation ticked up fractionally, spurring on firms to increase output charges.

The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance - edged fractionally down in October to 52.8, from 52.9 in September. Albeit lower, the index reading signalled another solid rate of sector expansion. Business conditions have improved in every month since September 2016.

While new orders rose at a slightly quicker pace, production increased at the softest rate for four months. At the same time, companies continued to shed staff amid reports of company-downsizing policies and efforts to raise efficiency. This in turn contributed to a further increase in outstanding business, which rose solidly. Strict environmental policies meanwhile contributed to a sharp rise in input costs and weighed on vendor performance. As a result, companies raised their factory gate prices at a solid pace.

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy - was unchanged from September's reading of 51.0 in October to signal a further marginal improvement in the health of the sector. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past five months.