CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-06-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +209.46 19860.03 +1.07%

TOPIX +17.77 1586.14 +1.13%

Hang Seng +148.57 25809.22 +0.58%

CSI 300 +4.86 3497.74 +0.14%

Euro Stoxx 50 +12.43 3567.02 +0.35%

FTSE 100 +23.82 7543.77 +0.32%

DAX +49.86 12664.92 +0.40%

CAC 40 +35.04 5318.67 +0.66%

DJIA +135.53 21144.18 +0.65%

S&P 500 +18.26 2430.06 +0.76%

NASDAQ +48.31 6246.83 +0.78%

S&P/TSX +120.00 15469.91 +0.78%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1213 -0,26%

GBP/USD $1,2883 +0,08%

USD/CHF Chf0,9712 +0,37%

USD/JPY Y111,36 +0,48%

EUR/JPY Y124,87 +0,22%

GBP/JPY Y143,46 +0,55%

AUD/USD $0,7374 -0,76%

NZD/USD $0,7061 -0,30%

USD/CAD C$1,3513 +0,14%

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m April -1.1%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence May 43.2 43.6

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction May 53.1 52.7

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM April -0.3% 0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) April 3.9% 4.5%

12:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter I 0.4% 0.2%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions April -0.14 -0.07

12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls May 17

12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls May 6 5

12:30 U.S. Average workweek May 34.4 34.4

12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls May 194 173

12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate May 62.9%

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings May 0.3% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln April -43.7 -46.1

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate May 4.4% 4.4%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls May 211 182

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count June 722

Major US stock indices showed a noticeable increase after data from ADP indicated a stronger growth in employment in the private sector of the US, which in turn increased the chances of raising the Fed's interest rate later this month.

According to the ADP report, in May the number of employees increased by 253 thousand people compared to the revised downward indicator for April at 174 thousand (originally reported growth of 177 thousand). Analysts had expected that the number of employed will increase by 185 thousand.

At the same time, the report of the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but growth probably does not signal a significant shift in labor market conditions, as applications in several States, including California. According to the report, primary applications for unemployment benefits jumped 13 thousand to 248 thousand, seasonally adjusted for the week ending May 27.

At the same time, the seasonally adjusted final index of PMI in the US industry from IHS Markit was 52.7 in May and was less than 52.8 in April.

In addition, the report published by the ISM showed: in May, activity in the US manufacturing sector improved despite the average forecasts of experts. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector was 54.9 points against 54.8 points in April. Analysts had expected that this figure would drop to 54.5 points.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (24 out of 30). The leader of growth was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 2.38%). Most fell shares of NIKE, Inc. (NKE, -1.41%).

All sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The growth leader was the conglomerate sector (+ 1.5%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.64% 21.143.36 +134.71

Nasdaq + 0.78% 6.246.83 +48.31

S & P + 0.75% 2,430.00 +18.20

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 509.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels last week, but are near the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week.

• Expects a tax cut will affect US economy in 2018

• Expects three rate hikes this year

• He doesn't see balance sheet falling below $2.5 trillion

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May, and the overall economy grew for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The May PMI registered 54.9 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the April reading of 54.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the April reading of 57.5 percent. The Production Index registered 57.1 percent, a 1.5 percentage points decrease compared to the April reading of 58.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.5 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the April reading of 52 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 51 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.5 percent in May, a decrease of 8 percentage points from the April reading of 68.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 15th consecutive month, but at a noticeably slower rate of increase in May compared with April.

U.S. stock-index futures advanced, supported by better-than-expected ADP's Employment Change Report for May.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,860.03 +209.46 +1.07%

Hang Seng 25,809.22 +148.57 +0.58%

Shanghai 3,101.70 -15.48 -0.50%

S&P/ASX 5,738.13 +13.56 +0.24%

FTSE 7,553.71 +33.76 +0.45%

CAC 5,320.82 +37.19 +0.70%

DAX 12,654.69 +39.63 +0.31%

Crude $48.37 (+0.10%)

Gold $1,265.80 (-0.75%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

McDonald's (MCD) target raised to $165 from $150 at Telsey Advisory Group

In the week ending May 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.

The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,250 to 235,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending May 20, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate

US Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report.

"In April we saw a moderate slowdown from the strong pace of hiring in the first quarter," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Despite a dip in job creation, the growth is more than strong enough to accommodate the growing population as the labor market nears full employment. Looking across company sizes, midsized businesses showed persistent growth for the past six months." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics said, "Job growth slowed in April due to a pullback in construction and retail jobs. The softness in construction is continued payback from outsized growth during the mild winter. Brick-and-mortar retailers cut jobs in response to withering competition from online merchants."

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported Q2 FY 2017 earnings of $0.35 per share (versus $0.42 in Q2 FY 2016), in-line with analysts' consensus estimate.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $9.900 bln (-22.1% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $9.747 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for Q3, projecting EPS of $0.24-0.28 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $0.31, and reaffirmed guidance for FY 2017, forecasting EPS of $1.46-1.56 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $1.47.

HPE fell to $18.50 (-1.65%) in pre-market trading.

• Most urgent EU task is completing capital market and banking union; deepening euro zone can come later

• It's not for us to help Macron; he is the only one who can carry out urgently needed reforms

The UK manufacturing sector remained resilient in May, sustaining most of the growth momentum gained during the prior survey month. At 56.7, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index was only slightly below April's three-year high of 57.3 and signalled an improvement in operating conditions for the tenth successive month.

Manufacturing production and new orders both expanded at above survey average rates. Companies benefited most from the continued strength of the domestic market. There was also a solid increase in new export business as well.

The ongoing expansion of the eurozone manufacturing sector gathered further momentum in May. Growth in output and new orders accelerated to the best seen for around six years, to underpin the strongest job creation in the 20-year survey history.

The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 73-month high of 57.0 in May, up from 56.7 in April and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The PMI has signalled expansion in each of the past 47 months.

Improved business conditions were signalled in seven out of the eight nations covered by the survey. The growth acceleration was mainly driven by a stronger expansion in Germany, where the rate of increase was the fastest in over six years.

The German manufacturing sector gained momentum mid-way through the second quarter, according the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit and BME. Overall operating conditions improved at the strongest pace in over six years as output, new orders and employment all expanded at faster rates. Notably, new export business increased at the sharpest clip in seven years. Meanwhile, input prices rose at the slowest pace in six months, albeit one that remained historically sharp overall.

The PMI resumed its upward trajectory in May, rising for the fifth time in six months to 59.5 from April's 58.2. This signalled the strongest overall improvement in manufacturing business conditions in Germany since April 2011. The upward movement in the PMI reflected stronger growth rates for output, new orders and employment, as well as a more substantial lengthening of suppliers' delivery times. The current two-and-a-half year period of overall growth in the goods-producing sector is the second-longest in the 21-year survey history.

The rate of job creation quickened to a near-record high in May as the Spanish manufacturing sector experienced further strong growth of output and new orders. Meanwhile, there were signs that inflationary pressures may have peaked as both input costs and output prices rose at slower rates during the month.

The headline PMI rose to a four-month high of 55.4 in May, up from 54.5 in April. The reading signalled a further marked monthly improvement in the health of the sector, and extended the current sequence of strengthening business conditions to 42 months.

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.4% in nominal terms in April 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 2.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 1.2% in April 2017 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 2.4%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1343 (5303)

$1.1295 (4906)

$1.1271 (5797)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1236

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1161 (2152)

$1.1126 (2561)

$1.1085 (2517)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 80957 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5959);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 103162 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5490);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 31

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3103 (3128)

$1.3006 (3934)

$1.2910 (2382)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2854

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2793 (2579)

$1.2696 (2496)

$1.2597 (1392)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36939 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3934);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 39206 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (3113);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 31

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The trend estimate rose 0.1% in April 2017. This follows a rise of 0.1% in March 2017 and a rise of 0.1% in February 2017.

The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.0% in April 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in March 2017 and a relatively unchanged February 2017 (0.0%).

In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in April 2017 compared with April 2016.

The following industries rose in trend terms in April 2017: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), and Department Stores (0.4%). Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.4%), and Household goods retailing (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in April 2017.

The following states and territories rose in trend terms in April 2017: Victoria (0.3%), New South Wales (0.1%), South Australia (0.4%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%), and Tasmania (0.1%). Queensland (0.0%) and Western Australia (0.0%) were relatively unchanged. The Northern Territory (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in April 2017.

The fall in the headline index coincided with slower increases in output and new orders, while staff numbers were cut at a quicker rate. Subdued demand conditions underpinned a renewed fall in purchasing activity, albeit only slight, and the first increase in inventories of finished items in 2017 so far. Latest data also signalled the first fall in input costs since last June, which in turn led manufacturers to lower their selling prices for the first time since February 2016.

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy - posted below the neutral 50.0 value at 49.6 in May. Although only indicative of a marginal deterioration in operating conditions, the index fell from 50.3 to signal the first decline in the health of the sector for 11 months.

Private consumption growth expanded only slightly, while government consumption rose moderately. Following the previous quarter's fall, investment in construction and equipment increased. The trade balance contributed notably to overall GDP growth. On the production side, growth was largely driven by manufacturing, while service sector performance varied widely.

Value added rose in healthcare and social work activities, but dropped in retail services, in financial services and in certain other service sectors. The GDP deflator experienced a year-on-year increase for the first time in 13 quarters.

Annual house price growth dips to 2.1%, providing further evidence that housing market is losing momentum.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "House prices recorded their third consecutive monthly fall in May - the first time this has occurred since 2009. The annual rate of growth slowed to 2.1%, the weakest in almost four years. "It is still early days, but this provides further evidence that the housing market is losing momentum. Moreover, this may be indicative of a wider slowdown in the household sector, though data continues to send mixed signals in this regard.

European stock markets closed mostly lower Wednesday, as investors digested the latest bout of uncertainty surrounding the U.K. election and assessed a sharper-than-expected fall in eurozone inflation.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday, but off their worst levels of the session, notching gains for the month as a slump in bank shares and a mixed reading of economic reports weighed on investor sentiment.

Global equity markets struggled to find direction as a new month began, though Japan outperformed despite a lack of action with the yen, which often affects the country's stocks.