Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 26-07-2018.

• We took note of Trump-Juncker meeting

• It's a good sign

Exports of goods for June were $141.9 billion, $2.2 billion less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $210.3 billion, $1.3 billion more than May imports.

Wholesale inventories for June, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $632.5 billion, virtually unchanged from May 2018, and were up 5.1 percent (±3.9 percent) from June 2017. The April 2018 to May 2018 percentage change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

• Latest data points to ongoing growth

• Private consumption is supported by ongoing labor market gains

• Risks to the growth outlook remain broadly balanced

• Global uncertainty and the threat of protectionism are prominent

• Risk of financial market volatility remains high

*via forexlive

In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,500 to 220,750.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $2.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $251.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.3 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $87.7 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $4.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $251.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent May increase. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.8 percent to $85.3 billion.

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

The number of employed persons increased by 469,900 people in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter (2.49%) and stands at 19,344,100. It is the biggest Quarterly increase in employed persons observed in the historical series EPA. In terms seasonally adjusted, the quarterly variation is 1.00%. Employment has grown in 530,800 people (2.82%) in the last 12 months. - Employment increased this quarter by 12,100 people in the public sector and in 457,800 in the private. In the last 12 months, employment has increased in 416,700 people in the private sector and 114,100 in the public.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1801 (4442)

$1.1780 (2433)

$1.1757 (797)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1729

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1695 (3022)

$1.1667 (3150)

$1.1631 (3257)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 87241 contracts (according to data from July, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (5410);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3293 (862)

$1.3266 (707)

$1.3232 (670)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3194

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3136 (2104)

$1.3106 (1736)

$1.3070 (1986)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 13 is 23586 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3206);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 13 is 27393 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2245);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 25.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The Import Price Index rose 3.2% in the June quarter 2018. This follows a rise in the March quarter 2018 of 2.0%.

The rise was driven by higher prices paid for Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+13.7%), reflecting tight worldwide supply due to global production restrictions and capacity constraints.

General industrial machinery rose 3.3%, reflecting rises in metal prices.

These rises were partly offset by falls in Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (-5.6%).

Through the year to the June quarter 2018, the Import Price Index rose 6.0%, driven by Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+38.2%) and Inorganic chemicals (+40.8%).

The Export Price Index rose 1.9% in the June quarter 2018. This follows a rise in the March quarter 2018 of 4.9%.

Prices received for many of Australia's mineral fuel commodities rose in the June quarter 2018. Gas, natural and manufactured, rose 10.8%, in response to strong demand for LNG in northern Asia. Export contract prices for LNG are also influenced by the international crude oil price with a two to four month lag.

Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials rose 8.5%, reflecting tight worldwide supply due to global production restrictions and capacity constraints.

Meat and meat preparations rose 3.8%, influenced by strong demand in Asia and the United States.

Coal, coke and briquettes rose 0.9%, reflecting demand from China.

The mood of German consumers develops in mixed ways in July this year. Income expectations and propensity to buy are able to maintain their extremely good level while economic expectations continue their clear downwards trend. GfK forecasts a decrease in consumer climate for August compared to the previous month of 0.1 points, taking it to 10.6 points.

It seems that the escalating trade conflict between the EU and the United States is so far only adversely affecting German consumers' economic expectations, which are suffering renewed significant losses and continuing their downward spiral. In contrast, both income expectations and the propensity to buy have so far remained unaffected by the conflict and maintain their already excellent level in July. Since the propensity to save has risen recently, the overall consumer climate shows a slight fall.