Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes | |||
07:00 | Switzerland | Trade Balance | October | 2.9 | |
09:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | September | 25.7 | 23.4 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Construction Output, y/y | September | 1.2% | 2.7% |
11:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | November | -37 | -32 |
13:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) | September | 0.8% | 0.6% |
13:30 | U.S. | Housing Starts | October | 1.256 | 1.32 |
13:30 | U.S. | Building Permits | October | 1.387 | 1.387 |
14:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
18:00 | Canada | Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks | |||
23:50 | Japan | Trade Balance Total, bln | October | -123 | 301 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes | |||
07:00 | Switzerland | Trade Balance | October | 2.9 | |
09:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | September | 25.7 | 23.4 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Construction Output, y/y | September | 1.2% | 2.7% |
11:00 | United Kingdom | CBI industrial order books balance | November | -37 | -32 |
13:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) | September | 0.8% | 0.6% |
13:30 | U.S. | Housing Starts | October | 1.256 | 1.32 |
13:30 | U.S. | Building Permits | October | 1.387 | 1.387 |
14:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
18:00 | Canada | Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks | |||
23:50 | Japan | Trade Balance Total, bln | October | -123 | 301 |
Analysts at TD Securities are exppecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates by 50bps over 2020, with 25bp cuts in January and April.
Analysts at Rabobank note the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed USD net longs slipped for a sixth consecutive week.
“Expectations that a phase 1 trade deal between the US and China could be close to being achieved coupled with another Fed rate cut in October had boosted risk appetite. This had encouraged flows out of the USD into higher-yielding currencies. That said doubts about the trade deal have crept in during the past couple of weeks and this has created some support for the USD in the spot market.
Net EUR short positions edged lower but there has been no strong direction in recent weeks.
Net short GBP positions dropped back for a ninth consecutive week and are at their lowest level since May.
JPY net positions held in negative ground for a fifth consecutive week and shorts rose to their largest level since June.
CHF net shorts increased for a third week consistent with a drop in demand for safe-haven assets.
CAD net long positions dropped back after their recent surge. BoC Governor Poloz last week reiterated the case for keeping the door open for further policy easing.
AUD net shorts bounced back as hopes for a US/China trade faded. The AUD’s role as a proxy for confidence in China suggests that trade talks remain very much in view.”
The National
Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Monday its housing market index
(HMI) fell one point to 70 in November from an unrevised October reading of 71.
Economists had
forecast the HMI to stay at 71.
A reading over
50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Two out of the
three HMI components were lower this month. The indicator gauging current sales
conditions decreased two points to 77, while the component measuring traffic of
prospective buyers fell one point to 53. At the same time, the measure charting
sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77.
NAHB Chairman
Greg Ugalde noted: “Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing
positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job
growth. In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month
where at least half of all builders surveyed have reported positive buyer
traffic conditions.”
Meanwhile, NAHB
Chief Economist Robert Dietz said: “We have seen substantial year-over-year
improvement following the housing affordability crunch of late 2018, when the
HMI stood at 60. However, lot shortages remain a serious problem, particularly
among custom builders. Builders also continue to grapple with other
affordability headwinds, including a lack of labor and regulatory constraints.”
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Canada’s retail sales to remain subdued with a 0.3% decline in September as softer motor-vehicle sales add to a more subdued 0.1% decline in the ex-autos measure.
Analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) note that the U.S. retail sales, excluding volatile items like autos and petrol, rose a modest 0.1% in October after a 0.1% decline the previous month.
The CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on November 12 reveals the following:
Aanalysts at Deutsche Bank note global financial conditions and growth prospects have been lifted post the Trump Administration announced in early October its intent to seek a phased trade agreement with China.
FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/JPY to grind lower and test the 108.00-region in the next weeks.
Analysts at TD Securities note that the PBoC has cut its 7 day reverse repo rate to 2.5% from 2.55% and added CNY 180bn of liquidity via open market operations.
“The cut in rates was the first since 2015 and follows the release of the PBoC's quarterly report over the weekend, which warned both about risks to growth and rising inflation. October data was uniformly weak, suggesting that PBoC will maintain its incremental policy of easing.”
Analysts at ANZ note that the RBNZ, RBA, and the U.S. Fed have all now joined Texas Hold’em club, betting – for now – on previous rate cuts doing the job.
FX Strategists at UOB Group do not rule out the continuation of the rebound in AUD/USD, although the mid-0.6800s looks a tough barrier so far.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that this morning in Asia the PBOC has cut the interest rate on its seven-day reverse repurchase agreements to 2.5% from 2.55% for the first time since October 2015.
Analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) think there is no recession for the U.K .economy as after contracting by 0.2% in the second quarter, the economy regained enough composure to eke out 0.3% growth in three months to September.
The number of properties put up for sale in Britain has fallen by the most in any month in more than 10 years as the combination of Brexit and an election weighs on the market, a survey showed.
There were 14.9% fewer properties put on sale in the four weeks to Nov. 9 than in the same period last year, property website Rightmove said. That was the biggest annual fall since August 2009, shortly after the global financial crisis.
"I've seen lots of unusual events affecting the property market in my 40-year career, but a Brexit deadline followed by a snap general election six weeks later is obviously a new combination," Miles Shipside, Rightmove director, said.
Rightmove said some would-be sellers of property might be waiting to see if Britain's next government reforms the stamp duty tax on property transactions which might reduce the cost of acquiring a new home.
In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could attempt to regain the 1.1080/95 area in the very near term.
“EUR/USD has managed to stabilise around the 61.8% retracement at 1.0994. Thursdays price action constituted a key day reversal and we would allow for a rebound into the 1.1080/1.1095 band very near term. This is the location of the 55 day ma and we will need to regain this for a viable retest of the 1.1180 recent high. While capped by the 55 day ma, the market is regarded as under pressure and capable of extending the decline to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0943. It is possible that we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0865 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen”.
China's central bank on Monday lowered the interest rate on its regular reverse repurchase open market operations for the first time since October 2015, aiming to boost market confidence and prop up slowing growth.
The People's Bank of China said on its website that it cut the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 2.5% from 2.55%. The central bank also injected a net 180 billion yuan of cash into the monetary system via open market operations.
China's October economic and financial data fell across the board, while food prices continued to rise even as core inflation remained weak. Analysts said that with the downward pressure on the economy, the need to cut interest rates is rising.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1131 (3123)
$1.1104 (2194)
$1.1087 (1591)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1062
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1019 (3916)
$1.0985 (3261)
$1.0944 (2961)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 100018 contracts (according to data from November, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5609);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3014 (1563)
$1.2988 (2535)
$1.2967 (1081)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2948
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2868 (209)
$1.2826 (1645)
$1.2762 (1758)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 30422 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5261);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 32492 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2316);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 15
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.68149 | 0.43 |
EURJPY | 120.28 | 0.68 |
EURUSD | 1.10539 | 0.31 |
GBPJPY | 140.397 | 0.55 |
GBPUSD | 1.2903 | 0.17 |
NZDUSD | 0.64008 | 0.33 |
USDCAD | 1.32252 | -0.17 |
USDCHF | 0.98966 | 0.17 |
USDJPY | 108.808 | 0.38 |
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