Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 17-08-2017.

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) July 0.0% 0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) July 2.4% 2.2%

08:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln June 18.3

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y July 1% 1.2%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m July -0.1% 0.1%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y July 0.9%

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) August 93.4 94

14:15 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count August 768

EURUSD: 1.1650 (EUR 1.15 млрд) 1.1700 (1.08 млрд) 1.1795 (1.4 млрд) 1.1800 (1.2 млрд) 1.1850-55 (1.35 млрд) 1.1875 (1.38 млрд)

USDJPY: 109.95-00 (USD 1.86 млрд) 110.75-80 (1.3 млрд) 111.60-70 (1.15 млрд)

AUDUSD: 0.7875 (AUD 915 млн) 0.7975 (1.1 млрд)

In July, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent; the production of motor vehicles and parts fell substantially, but that decrease was mostly offset by a net gain of 0.2 percent for other manufacturing industries. Following a six-month string of increases beginning in September 2016, factory output was little changed, on net, between February and July. The indexes for mining and utilities in July rose 0.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. At 105.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 76.7 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average.

Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to advance in August, according to firms responding to this month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell slightly but continued to reflect growth.

There was a notable improvement in the new orders and shipments indexes, and overall employment expansion continued among the reporting firms. The survey's indexes of future activity indicate that firms expect a continuation of growth in the region's manufacturing sector over the next six months.

In the week ending August 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 232,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 244,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 241,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending August 5, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.

Manufacturing sales fell 1.8% to $53.9 billion in June, following three consecutive monthly gains. The declines were mainly due to lower sales in the petroleum and coal product, transportation equipment, and chemical industries.

Sales were down in 15 of 21 industries, representing 72.1% of the manufacturing sector in Canada. Sales of non-durable goods declined 2.2%, while sales of durable goods were down 1.5%.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product industry decreased 7.1% to $4.6 billion in June, following a 3.0% decline in May. Lower prices for petroleum and coal products (-4.1%) and lower volumes, particularly in eastern refineries, contributed to the decline in June. Constant dollar sales of petroleum and coal products fell 3.5%.

• Core inflation shows tentative signs of pick-up, still needs conclusive evidence of upward trend

• A suggestion was made that consideration be given to adjustment in language

• It was generally judged paramount to avoid signals that might prove premature, be prone to over-interpreation

• A remark was made that expansion was increasingly self-sustaining

• It needs to gain more space and flexibility to adjust policy and accommodation in either direction if needed

• Still favourable financing conditions could not be taken for granted, relied to great extent on policy

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in June 2017 was €187.2 billion, an increase of 3.9% compared with June 2016 (€180.2 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €160.7 bn, a rise of 6.2% compared with June 2016 (€151.3 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €26.6 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in June 2017, compared with +€28.9 bn in June 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €157.5 bn in June 2017, up by 3.5% compared with June 2016. These data are released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Euro area annual inflation was 1.3% in July 2017, stable compared with June 2017. In July 2016 the rate was 0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 1.5% in July 2017, also stable compared to June 2017. A year earlier the rate was 0.2%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual rates were registered in Ireland (-0.2%), Cyprus (-0.1%), Bulgaria and Finland (both 0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (4.1%), Estonia (3.9%), Latvia and the United Kingdom (both 2.6%). Compared with June 2017, annual inflation fell in four Member States, remained stable in eight and rose in sixteen. The largest upward impacts to the euro area annual inflation came from accommodation services (+0.10 percentage points), package holidays (+0.06 pp) and air transport (+0.05 pp), while telecommunication (-0.11 pp), vegetables (-0.05 pp) and fruit (-0.04 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

In July 2017, the quantity bought (volume) in retail sales increased by 0.3% compared with the previous month, due to strong sales in food stores at 1.5%; recovering from a fall of 1.1% in June 2017.

All other sectors except food and household goods stores declined on the month for the quantity bought in retail sales.

The underlying pattern in the quantity bought, measured by the 3 month on 3 month estimate, shows an increase of 0.6%.

The quantity bought increased by 1.3% compared with July 2016; the 51st consecutive year-on-year increase in retail sales since April 2013.

Online sales increased year-on-year by 15.1% and by 0.3% on the month, accounting for approximately 16.0% of all retail spending.

• Looks forward to seeing North Korea dial back its rhetoric

EURUSD: 1.1650 (EUR 1.15bln) 1.1700 (1.08bln) 1.1795 (1.4bln) 1.1800 (1.2bln) 1.1850-55 (1.35bln) 1.1875 (1.38bln)

USDJPY: 109.95-00 (USD 1.86bln) 110.75-80 (1.3bln) 111.60-70 (1.15bln)

AUDUSD: 0.7875 (AUD 915m) 0.7975 (1.1bln)

• Employment increased 26,000 to 12,196,900.

• Unemployment decreased 1,800 to 726,000.

• Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%.

• Participation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts, but remained at 65.0% in rounded terms.

• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 5.2 million hours (0.3%) to 1,696.4 million hours.

Seasonally adjusted estimates (monthly change)

• Employment increased 27,900 to 12,201,400. Full-time employment decreased 20,300 to 8,342,300 and part-time employment increased 48,200 to 3,859,100.

• Unemployment increased 1,100 to 730,600. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 3,800 to 496,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,900 to 234,200.

• Unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.6%

• Participation rate increased by 0.1 pts to 65.1%.

• Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 14.4 million hours (0.8%) to 1,690.4 million hours.

• Policymakers disagreed on whether inflation expectations were well-anchored

• Agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable

• Voting policymakers were concerned about slowdown in inflation and agreed to monitor prices closely

• Some voting policymakers said further interest rate hikes should wait until there were signs inflation would rise to fed's 2 pct target

• Several policymakers noted rising stock prices had eased financial conditions

• A couple policymakers said high stock prices might not pose big risks to financial stability

• A couple policymakers saw pace of price gains in multi-family real estate and lending activity of certain government-sponsored firms as possible sources of financial instability

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1893 (3139)

$1.1869 (1958)

$1.1833 (1683)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1772

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1718 (1393)

$1.1696 (2485)

$1.1670 (3198)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 126329 contracts (according to data from August, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5046);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3085 (1518)

$1.3049 (3163)

$1.2990 (1073)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2897

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2808 (2045)

$1.2781 (2695)

$1.2748 (1965)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 8 is 31714 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (3206);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 27068 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2695);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.85 versus 0.86 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.