Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 16-04-2019.

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16.04.2019
23:50
Japan: Trade Balance Total, bln, March 529 (forecast 372.2)
22:45
New Zealand: CPI, q/q , Quarter I 0.1% (forecast 0.3%)
22:45
New Zealand: CPI, y/y, Quarter I 1.5% (forecast 1.7%)
22:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Leading Index March 0%  
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y March 8.2% 8.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y March 5.3% 5.9%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment March 6.1% 6.3%
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter I 6.4% 6.3%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) February -3.4% 1.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) February 0.3% -1.0%
08:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln February 9.3 17.2
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) March 2.2% 2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) March 0.6% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) March 3.7% 3.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m March 0.7% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) March 0.1% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y March 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y March 1.8% 1.9%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m March 0.5% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y March 1.9% 2%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y March 1% 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI March 0.3% 1%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y March 1.5% 1.4%
09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted February 1.5 12.3
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February -4.25 -3.5
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln February -51.1 -53.5
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m March 0.7% 0.7%
12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y March 1.5%  
12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y March 1.5% 1.9%
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories February 1.4% 0.5%
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April 7.029 7.329
15:30 Eurozone ECB's Lautenschläger Speech    
16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks    
16:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks    
18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book    
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Leading Index March 0%  
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y March 8.2% 8.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y March 5.3% 5.9%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment March 6.1% 6.3%
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter I 6.4% 6.3%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) February -3.4% 1.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) February 0.3% -1.0%
08:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln February 9.3 17.2
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) March 2.2% 2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) March 0.6% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) March 3.7% 3.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m March 0.7% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) March 0.1% 0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y March 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y March 1.8% 1.9%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m March 0.5% 0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y March 1.9% 2%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y March 1% 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI March 0.3% 1%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y March 1.5% 1.4%
09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted February 1.5 12.3
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February -4.25 -3.5
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln February -51.1 -53.5
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m March 0.7% 0.7%
12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y March 1.5%  
12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y March 1.5% 1.9%
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories February 1.4% 0.5%
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April 7.029 7.329
15:30 Eurozone ECB's Lautenschläger Speech    
16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks    
16:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks    
18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book    
14:49
Canadian headline CPI likely to firm to 1.9% in March - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities expect the Canadian headline CPI to firm to 1.9% y/y in March, reflecting the second consecutive 0.7% m/m advance.

  • Gasoline prices should lend a substantial boost, with retail prices posting an 11% increase during the month, but one-off factors will also have a significant impact. We are focused on travel services, telephone/internet services, airfares, and rents which on balance point to the upside for March CPI.
  • Our March forecast is consistent with Q1 CPI at 1.6% y/y vs the BoC’s estimate of 1.7%, although the rapid recovery in gasoline prices has put the CPI profile on a much higher trajectory, such that we now see CPI holding at or slightly above 2% for most of 2019.
  • For core CPI, we expect the average of the BoC's preferred measures to remain stable at 1.83% y/y but see upside risk to CPI-trim and median on favourable base effects. CPI-trim and CPI-median rose by 0.02% and 0.08% on the month, respectively, in March 2018 and both series have averaged 0.2% m/m over the last three months. This provides a low hurdle for either to push higher, although we are not as upbeat on CPI-common due to a tighter correlation to the output gap which has recently widened.

14:18
U.S. builder confidence improves slightly in April

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Tuesday its housing market index (HMI) rose one point to 63 in April, the highest reading since October 2018.

Economists forecast the HMI to increase to 63.

A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two out of the three HMI components were higher this month. The indicator gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 69, and the component measuring the traffic of prospective buyers increased three points to 47. These gains, however, were offset by a 1-point drop in the measure charting sales expectations in the next six months, to 71 in April.

NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde said: “Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots.”

Meanwhile, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz added: “Ongoing job growth, favorable demographics and a low-interest rate environment will help to modestly spark sales growth in the near term. However, supply-side headwinds that are putting upward pressure on housing costs will limit more robust growth in the housing market.”

14:00
U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, April 63 (forecast 63)
13:37
U.S. industrial output unexpectedly decreases in March

The Federal Reserve reported on Tuesday that the U.S. industrial production edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m in March, following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent m-o-m increase in February (originally flat m-o-m performance). 

Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.2 percent m-o-m in March. 

According to the report, manufacturing production was unchanged m-o-m in March after dropping in both January and February. At the same time, the index for utilities increased 0.2 percent m-o-m, while mining output decreased 0.8 percent m-o-m.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point m-o-m in March to 78.8 percent. That was 0.3 percentage points below economists’ forecast and 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. 

In y-o-y terms, the industrial output rose 2.8 percent in March, following an unrevised 3.6 percent advance in the prior month. That marked the slowest rate of growth in industrial production since May 2018.

13:15
U.S.: Industrial Production YoY , March 2.8%
13:15
U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), March -0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
13:15
U.S.: Capacity Utilization, March 78.8% (forecast 79.1%)
12:44
Canada’s manufacturing sales unexpectedly fall in February

Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Tuesday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales fell 0.2 percent m-o-m in February to CAD56.64 billion, following a revised 0.8 percent m-o-m increase in January (originally a 1.0 percent m-o-m gain).

Economists had anticipated flat m-o-m performance for February. 

According to the survey, sales declined in 15 of 21 industries, representing 65.9 percent of total manufacturing sales. The largest drops were in the motor vehicle assembly (-4.4 percent m-o-m) and wood products (-5.9 percent m-o-m) industries. However, these decreases were largely offset by gains in the petroleum and coal product (+7.1 percent m-o-m, paper (+6.8 percent m-o-m) and machinery (+3.3 percent m-o-m) industries.

Overall, sales of durable goods fell 1.4 percent m-o-m in February, while sales of non-durable goods rose 1.2 percent m-o-m.

12:30
Canada: Manufacturing Shipments (MoM), February -0.2% (forecast 0%)
12:30
Canada: Foreign Securities Purchases, February 12.05
10:39
UK MPs to be given new vote on Brexit customs union within weeks - Evening Standard reports

The Commons will get a new vote on a customs union in a few weeks in order to try to break the Brexit deadlock, amid warnings that Theresa May’s Conservatives are walking into a “wipe-out” in the European elections, Evening Standard reported.

Veteran MP Frank Field told the Standard that he plans to move a motion with the Father of the House, Kenneth Clarke, to show that a smooth trading bloc is a solution that commands cross-party support.

Mr. Field’s move came as polls showed Tory support plunging following Mrs. May’s decision to allow European elections to go ahead if she fails to get her thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement through the Commons.

A YouGov survey found the Tories down to 28 percent in Westminster elections and 16 percent in the European contest.


10:17
ECB is said not to have discussed further deposit rate cuts - Bloomberg reports, citing sources

  • ECB officials are said to lack enthusiasm for sub-zero tiering
  • Some ECB officials are said to doubt rate tiering will happen
  • Debate on tiering is said to underline that there are plenty of tools still left


10:11
UK wage growth unlikely to be followed up with BoE rate hike later this year - ING

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, suggests that the key takeaway from the latest UK jobs report is the continued strength in wage growth.

  • At 3.4%, regular pay is growing close to its fastest rate since the financial crisis, and this comes as firms in certain sectors are finding it harder to attract/retain staff. Surveys indicate those skill shortages are particularly acute in the construction, IT and hospitality industries, and this has seen rates of pay outpace other sectors.
  • In principle, there are few reasons to expect this trend to fade imminently, although, amid all of the uncertainty, we'd note the number of people on the unemployed claimant count has begun to exceed the number of job vacancies - perhaps a sign of some weakness ahead.
  • For the time being though, rising wage growth should offer some extra impetus to consumer spending, particularly the relatively benign consumer price inflation backdrop. The temporary reprieve from Brexit noise may also help sales of bigger-ticket items, although consumer confidence still remains depressed overall. In the short-run, retailers may also get a boost from the forecasts of decent weather for the Easter weekend.
  • Overall though, we don’t expect a substantial rebound in economic growth over the next few months. The headwinds facing businesses have not faded, and many will need to continue building up their preparations for a possible ‘no deal’ Brexit later in the year. In many cases this will be very costly, and therefore will continue to weigh down overall investment.
  • For that reason, we think it is now pretty unlikely that the Bank of England will hike rates this year – unless some form of deal is approved earlier than most people expect. However, if wage growth continues to perform relatively well (which don’t forget has been at the heart of the BoE’s rate hike rationale in the past), then further gradual tightening cannot be ruled out in the medium term.

09:58
Several ECB policymakers doubt projected growth rebound - sources

Several ECB policymakers think the bank’s economic projections are too optimistic as growth weakness in China and trade tensions linger, four sources with direct knowledge of discussions said.

A “significant minority” of rate-setters in last week’s policy meeting expressed doubt that a long projected growth recovery is coming in the second half of the year and some even questioned the accuracy of the ECB’s projection models, given their long history of downward revisions, the sources said.

With the ECB using the these projections as a key input into policy decision, more cuts in growth and inflation forecasts would raise the chance that the bank’s first post crisis rate, now seen next year, is delayed even longer.

09:45
China's faster fiscal spending supported economy in first quarter - finance ministry

China's fiscal spending increased 15% during January-March from year ago levels to support economic growth, and local governments quickened their bond issuance for key projects, the finance ministry said. For the whole of 2018, fiscal spending rose 8.7% from 2017 levels.

"The relatively strong fiscal spending provided forceful funding support for implementing major national development strategies, pushing reforms in key areas and improving people's livelihood. Faster issuance of local government bonds also helped stabilise economic growth," Hao Lei, a finance ministry official told.

Local government bond issuance stood at 1.18 trillion yuan in January-March period, compared with a total issuance worth 2.17 trillion yuan last year.

09:29
Eurozone construction output up by 3.0% in February

According to first estimates from Eurostat, in February 2019 compared with January 2019, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector increased by 3.0% in the euro area (EA19) and by 2.3% in the EU28. In January 2019, production in construction fell by 0.8% in the euro area and rose by 0.6% in the EU28. In February 2019 compared with February 2018, production in construction increased by 5.2% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU28.

In the euro area in February 2019, compared with January 2019, civil engineering rose by 6.4% and building construction by 2.1%. In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 5.7% and building construction by 1.5%.

In the euro area in February 2019, compared with February 2018, civil engineering rose by 11.9% and building construction by 3.3%. In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 12.8% and building construction by 3.2%.

09:15
ZEW Indicator of economic sentiment for Germany increase in April

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.7 points in April 2019, with the corresponding indicator entering positive territory at 3.1 points. Although the indicator still remains below the long-term average of 22.2 points, economic expectations have recovered significantly from its low point in October 2018, having climbed almost 28 points since. Over the same period, however, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has deteriorated considerably. The corresponding indicator saw yet another decrease in April and currently stands at 5.5 points, 5.6 points lower than in the previous month.

Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has also improved once again, with the corresponding indicator climbing 7.0 points to a current level of 4.5 points compared to the previous month. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone saw a further decrease, falling by 6.6 points to a current level of minus 13.2 points compared to March.

09:02
Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, April 4.5 (forecast 1.2)
09:01
Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, April 3.1 (forecast 0.8)
09:00
Eurozone: Construction Output, y/y, February 5.2% (forecast 2%)
08:45
UK February Ilo unemployment rate stays flat at 3.9%

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%; it has not been lower since November 1974 to January 1975.

  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, higher than for a year earlier (75.4%) and the joint-highest figure on record.

  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.7%, lower than for a year earlier (21.2%) and the joint-lowest figure on record.

  • Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in UK were estimated to have increased by 3.4%, before adjusting for inflation, and by 1.5%, after adjusting for inflation, compared with a year earlier.

  • Including bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in UK were estimated to have increased by 3.5%, before adjusting for inflation, and by 1.6%, after adjusting for inflation, compared with a year earlier.

08:30
United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, February 3.4% (forecast 3.4%)
08:30
United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, February 3.9% (forecast 3.9%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , February 3.5% (forecast 3.5%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Claimant count , March 28.3 (forecast 20)
08:15
China says first-quarter profits of centrally-owned state firms up 13.1%

Profits at China's centrally-held state firms rose 13.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier to 426.5 billion yuan, the regulator for state assets said. That was slower than the 20.9% growth in earnings for the first quarter of 2018 and the 16.7% increase for the whole of 2018.

For March only, profits increased 10.8% on-year, slowing from the January-February gain of 15.3%, according to a statement by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).

07:59
USD/CHF pair is a bid near term – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/CHF pair is a bid near term and faces resistance initially at the 1.0052/15th March high and the 1.0075/78.6% retracement.

“It is possible that we will see the market stall here and ease back to the 200 day ma at .9927. This guards the March low at .9895 and the .9866 6 month support line and the .9716 recent low. The 1.0075/78.6% retracement, is viewed as the last defence for the top of the range at 1.1028, where we would again allow for failure. A break above the 1.0128 November high would introduce scope to the 1.0343 December 2016 peak.”

07:40
Gold could hit $1,400 by the end of 2019 - INTL FCStone expert

Gold is poised to move higher later this year, powered by the Fed aggressive stance on interest rates and lingering global uncertainties, a precious metals expert said.

Central banks have been buying gold at levels not seen in 50 years, as part of a broader diversification of reserves away from currencies including the U.S. dollar.

Gold prices have largely been stuck in a range of between $1,217 to $1,330, according to Martin Huxley, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone. But he said that could change.

“I think that we expect gold to continue to trade pretty much within that range for the coming months,” Huxley told. “But over the second half of the year we expect it then to grind higher, and potentially it could test $1,400 towards the end of the year,” he added.

Huxley said the Fed signal that there will be no more interest rate hikes this year has helped boost the outlook for gold and other metals.

07:19
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Fed independence is important globally

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the Federal Reserve’s independence is important globally, while refusing to comment on President Donald Trump’s latest attack on the Fed.

Mnuchin was asked about Trump’s tweet Sunday that if the Fed had done its job properly, the stock market would be 5,000 to 10,000 points higher and overall growth would have been “well over” 4% last year instead of 3%.

Mnuchn said, “In my role as secretary, it is inappropriate for me to comment. I do think that the Fed independence is something that the world looks to, and I think that the dollar being the reserve currency is very important.”

06:59
UK unemployment rate likely to hold steady at 3.9% - TDS

TD Securities analysts point out that the UK’s employment report for the three months ending February is released and will be a key economic release for today’s session.

“We look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9%, while headline wage growth rises a tick to 3.5% 3m/y and ex-bonus wages slip a tick to 3.3% 3m/y. The important private sector regular pay figure is likely to remain stable at 3.5% 3m/y for the fourth consecutive month, its fastest pace of growth since 2008.”

06:40
China's policy stimulus may worsen economic distortions - OECD

China's stimulus measures will shore up economic growth this year and next but may undermine the country's drive to control debt and worsen structural distortions over the medium term, the OECD said.

Beijing has stepped up fiscal stimulus to prevent a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Local governments will be allowed to issue 2.15 trillion yuan worth of special purpose bonds in 2019 to fund infrastructure projects, a jump of 59% from last year.

"Infrastructure stimulus could lift growth over the projection horizon, but it could lead to a further build-up of imbalances and capital misallocation, and thereby weaker growth in the medium term. The stimulus risks increasing once again corporate sector indebtedness and, more generally, reversing progress in deleveraging," the OECD said in its latest survey on China's economy.

06:20
German ZEW and UK employment amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

According to analysts at Danske Bank, in Germany, focus is on the ZEW reading for April today, ahead of the important PMIs on Thursday.

“After a difficult start to the year, we already saw rays of light in the March ZEW reading with the expectations-current conditions spread turning positive for the first time since 2012. In April, we see scope for further upside for the expectations component in light of better recent data not least out of China, while we expect the current situation assessment to stabilise around the current level. In the UK, the jobs report for February is due out, which will likely point to solid employment growth, after GDP growth surprised on the upside last week.”

05:59
China's home prices rise faster in March

New home prices in China grew slightly faster in March after growth slowed the previous month, putting a floor under the cooling market, as Beijing rolled out stimulus to boost the economy.

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.6% in March, quickening from a 0.5% gain in February, according data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

On the whole, it logged the 47th straight month of price increases. Most of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS reported monthly price increases for new homes, and the number climbed sharply to 65 from 57 in February.

On an annual basis, home prices rose 10.6% in March, the highest since April 2017, and also accelerating from a 10.4% gain in February.

As banks loosen lending standards and lower mortgage rates, buyers are returning to the market in anticipation of bigger price gains.

05:34
Options levels on tuesday, April 16, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1433 (4509)

$1.1405 (3911)

$1.1375 (278)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1304

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1277 (3162)

$1.1238 (3246)

$1.1194 (2960)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 71175 contracts (according to data from April, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5862);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3318 (2305)

$1.3243 (1152)

$1.3191 (941)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3090

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3048 (1374)

$1.2977 (1552)

$1.2891 (1709)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 21283 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2484);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 20288 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2560);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, April 15, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.71687 -0.02
EURJPY 126.532 -0
EURUSD 1.13003 0.02
GBPJPY 146.646 0.19
GBPUSD 1.30963 0.21
NZDUSD 0.67611 0.01
USDCAD 1.33719 0.33
USDCHF 1.00372 0.14
USDJPY 111.965 -0.02

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