Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-06-2017.

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI May 0.4% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) May 1.2% 0.9%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) May 1.9% 1.4%

11:00 United Kingdom BOE Quarterly Bulletin

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases April 15.13 12.14

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts May 1172 1215

12:30 U.S. Building Permits May 1228 1247

14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index May 3.5 3

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) June 97.1 97

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count June 741

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes weakened slightly in June, down two points to a level of 67 from a downwardly revised May reading of 69 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

"Builder confidence levels have remained consistently sound this year, reflecting the ongoing gradual recovery of the housing market," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

"As the housing market strengthens and more buyers enter the market, builders continue to express their frustration over an ongoing shortage of skilled labor and buildable lots that is impeding stronger growth in the single-family sector," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

EURUSD: 1.1100-10 (1.3bln) 1.1140-50 (840m) 1.1200-10 (1bln) 1.1255-65 (1.1bln) 1.1300 (1bln) 1.1330 (520m) 1.1350 (250m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.50 (2.05bln) 108.80 (646m) 109.00-05 (1.655bln) 109.50 (960m) 110.00 (970m) 110.50-60 (1.4bln) 111.00 (500m)

GFBPUSD: 1.2600 (GBP 250m)

EURGBP: 0.8715 (EUR 380m)

USDCHF: 0.9650 (USD 195m)

AUDUSD: 0.7550 (AUD 205m) 0.7580 (200m) 0.7600 (330m)

Industrial production was unchanged in May following a large increase in April and smaller increases in February and March. Manufacturing output declined 0.4 percent in May; the index is little changed, on net, since February.

The indexes for mining and utilities posted gains of 1.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in May. At 105.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in May was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1 percentage point in May to 76.6 percent, a rate that is 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average.

Manufacturing sales rose 1.1% to a record high $54.4 billion in April, mainly due to higher sales in the petroleum and coal product, and primary metal industries.

Sales were up in 13 of the 21 industries, representing 62% of Canadian manufacturing sales.

Once the effects of price changes are taken into consideration, manufacturing sales volumes rose 0.5% in April.

Sales in the petroleum and coal products industry rose 8.9% to $5.4 billion in April, following two months of declines. The increase reflected higher volumes and prices for petroleum and coal products. After removing the effect of price changes, sales in volume terms increased 7.8% in April.

Sales in the primary metal industry rose 3.8% to $4.2 billion, the third increase in four months. The increase in April partly reflected higher volumes and prices of primary metal products. In constant dollars, sales in the primary industry were up 2.5%, indicating higher volumes of products were sold.

Sales also increased in the paper (+3.5%), food (+0.5%) and machinery (+1.5%) industries. These gains were widespread and reflected higher volumes in these industries.

Regional manufacturing continues to expand, according to results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell from its reading in May but remained positive and continued to reflect growth. Although many of the future indicators also declined, firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. About one-third of the firms expect to add to their payrolls through the end of the year.

The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 38.8 in May to 27.6 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 11 consecutive months. Forty-two percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in June, down from 51 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 11 points, while the new orders index was little changed. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the eighth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders.

U.S. import prices declined 0.3 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 0.2 percent in April. Lower fuel prices drove the decrease in May and nonfuel prices recorded no change. The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.7 percent in May following a 0.2-percent advance in April.
The price index for overall exports fell 0.7 percent in May following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the previous 2 months. The May decrease was the first monthly drop since August 2016 when the index declined 0.8 percent. Prices for agricultural and nonagricultural exports contributed to the overall drop
in export prices. The price index for U.S. exports rose 1.4 percent for the year ended in May.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1230 1.1250 1.1270 1.1285 1.1300

Bids: 1.1180 1.1165 1.1150 1.1120 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2760 1.2785 1.2800 1.2830 1.2850 1.2880 1.2900

Bids: 1.2720 1.2700 1.2680 1.2650 1.2630 1.2600-10

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.30 123.50 123.80 124.00 124.50

Bids: 122.80 122.50 122.30 122.00 121.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8810 0.8825 0.8850-55 0.8885 0.8900

Bids: 0.8765 0.8750 0.8730 0.8700 0.8685 0.8650

USD/JPY

Offers: 110.30 110.50 110.80 111.00 111.30 111.50 111.80 112.00

Bids: 110.00 109.80-85 109.65 109.50 109.35 109.20 109.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7630-35 0.7650 0.7680 0.7700 0.7750

Bids: 0.7600 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500-05

• Continued employment growth could suggest spare capacity and BoE's tolerance of above-target cpi is being eroded

• Cpi inflation could exceed 3 pct by the autumn, sterling fall since may inflation report will add to this if sustained

• Possible some house builders might reassess construction plans if weakness persists

• Recent weakness in housing market partly driven by same factors hurting consumer spending

• Remains to be seen how large and persistent UK consumer slowdown will prove, notes confidence resilient

• Expects q1 gdp growth to be revised up to 0.3 pct, sees q2 growth of 0.4 pct

• "Striking" that UK wage growth remains so weak relative to historic norms

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 14 June 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 5-3 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.

The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in April 2017 was €167.7 billion, a decrease of 3% compared with April 2016 (€172.5 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €149.8 bn, a rise of 3% compared with April 2016 (€145.9 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €17.9 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in April 2017, compared with +€26.6 bn in April 2016. Intra-euro area trade stood at €144.7 bn in April 2017, nearly stable compared with April 2016. These data are released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

In May 2017, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have increased by 0.9% compared with May 2016; the annual growth rate was last lower in April 2013.

Non-food stores were the main contributing factors to this slowdown with an annual fall of 1.2% and predominantly food stores saw the lowest annual growth since July 2013 at 0.1%.

Month-on-month, the quantity bought was estimated to have fallen by 1.2% following strong growth in April 2017.

The underlying pattern, as measured by the 3 month on 3 month change showed growth of 0.6% in May 2017.

Average store prices (excluding fuel) increased by 2.8% on the year; the largest growth since March 2012.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at -0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between -1.25% and -0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

The negative interest rate and the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued.

EURUSD: 1.1100-10 (1.3bln) 1.1140-50 (840m) 1.1200-10 (1bln) 1.1255-65 (1.1bln) 1.1300 (1bln) 1.1330 (520m) 1.1350 (250m)

USDJPY: 108.00 (USD 1.1bln) 108.50 (2.05bln) 108.80 (646m) 109.00-05 (1.655bln) 109.50 (960m) 110.00 (970m) 110.50-60 (1.4bln) 111.00 (500m)

GFBPUSD: 1.2600 (GBP 250m)

EURGBP: 0.8715 (EUR 380m)

USDCHF: 0.9650 (USD 195m)

AUDUSD: 0.7550 (AUD 205m) 0.7580 (200m) 0.7600 (330m)

In May 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was stable after +0.1% in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted, it edged down by 0.2%, after having been stable in April. Year on year, consumer prices slowed (+0.8% after +1.2%).

Over a month, the stability was the result of a rebound in food prices, particularly fresh products, offset by a fall in energy prices and, to a lesser extent, in tobacco prices. Services prices were stable and the prices of manufactured products grew at the same pace as in the previous month.

• Wednesday's cpi reading showed weakness in a number of categories; something fed will be focused on

• Says decisions about long-run framework for monetary policy don't need to be made for quite some time

• Knows that administration is working hard to fill out open slots at fed board

• Fed has taken note of weak core inflation readings

• Fully intends to serve out term as chair

• Conditions are in place for inflation to rise

• Has not seen much evidence that expectations of fiscal policy changes have driven changes in consumer or business spending

• Employment is near maximum sustainable level

• Pickup in global growth helping U.S. exports this year

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.5 percent in the March 2017 quarter, following an increase of 0.4 percent in the December 2016 quarter, Stats NZ said today.

"Much lower building activity combined with mixed results for the service sector took the shine off higher dairy production and saw a second quarter of moderate overall GDP growth," national accounts senior manager Gary Dunnet said.

"At an industry level, 11 out of 16 industries increased this quarter, with agriculture and retail trade having the biggest increases, while construction was significantly down."

Agriculture grew 4.3 percent due to higher milk production. This flowed through to higher dairy product manufacturing, which contributed to the overall rise in food, beverage, and tobacco product manufacturing. Dairy exports fell 11 percent in the March 2017 quarter, resulting in a build-up in dairy inventories.

Trend estimates (monthly change):

Employment increased 25,200 to 12,122,100.

Unemployment decreased 4,800 to 729,200.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7%.

Participation rate remained steady at 64.8%.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 2.9 million hours (0.18%) to 1,677.7 million hours.

Seasonally adjusted estimates (monthly change):

Employment increased 42,000 to 12,152,600. Full-time employment increased 52,100 to 8,287,400 and part-time employment decreased 10,100 to 3,865,200.

Unemployment decreased 18,600 to 711,900. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 23,000 to 489,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,400 to 222,700.

Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 pts to 5.5%.

Participation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 64.9%.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 31.1 million hours (1.87%) to 1,695.3 million hours.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the third time in three months despite signs the U.S. economy has cooled off in 2017, says rttnews.

The Federal Open Market Commitee voted to raise fed funds to between 1% and 1.25% and will start "gradual" shrinking of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet "this year."

The Fed, tasked with promoting full employment and healthy inflation, was forced to deal with an unusual dilemma -- the unemployment rate has dropped to its lowest in 16 years, but inflation has weakened below the Fed's 2 percent target rate.

Their so-called 'dot plot' shows one more rate hike in 2017 and three more in 2018, but the Fed's accompanying statement offered little indication they plan to raise interest rates again this summer.

Policy makers say they are "monitoring developments closely," meaning they are likely wait for comfirmation that recent economic weakness is "transitory."

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1305 (5385)

$1.1265 (4192)

$1.1240 (5428)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1209

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1146 (3165)

$1.1098 (3138)

$1.1040 (1927)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 81815 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5894);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 108710 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5437);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 14

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3005 (3802)

$1.2911 (2807)

$1.2819 (1949)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2732

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2598 (1821)

$1.2499 (2489)

$1.2399 (1445)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 39107 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3802);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 51879 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (7028);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.