Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-06-2017.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1208 +0,04%

GBP/USD $1,2750 +0,85%

USD/CHF Chf0,9686 +0,02%

USD/JPY Y110,07 +0,15%

EUR/JPY Y123,36 +0,18%

GBP/JPY Y140,33 +0,76%

AUD/USD $0,7533 -0,07%

NZD/USD $0,7212 +0,29%

USD/CAD C$1,3239 -0,60%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June 98

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y May 10.7% 10.6%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y May 6.5% 6.3%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment May 8.9% 8.8%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM (Finally) April -1.9% 4.0%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) April 3.5% 5.7%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) May 0% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) May 2% 1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April 2.1% 2%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y April 2.4% 2.4%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate April 4.6% 4.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count May 19.4 20.3

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April -0.1% 0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April 1.9% 1.3%

09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I 0.3% 0.3%

09:00 U.S. IEA Monthly Report

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto May 0.3% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales May 0.4% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY May 4.5%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m May 0.1% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m May 0.2% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y May 1.9% 1.9%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y May 2.2% 2%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories April 0.2% -0.2%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June 3.295

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 1% 1.25%

18:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections

18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement

18:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference

22:45 New Zealand GDP y/y Quarter I 2.7% 2.7%

22:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter I 0.4% 0.7%

EURUSD: 1.1040-50 (EUR 702m) 1.1100 1.1bln) 1.1300 (1.2bln)

USDJPY: 109.75 (USD 740m) 110.00 (1.3bln) 110.20-30 (361m) 110.60-70 (446m)

GBPUSD: 1.2500 (GBP 474m) 1.2640-50 (262m) 12660-70 (372m) 1.2700 (GBP 743m) 1.2760 (455m)

EURGBP: 0.8655-60 (EUR 570m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 310m) 0.7470 (328m) 0.7500 (270m) 0.7530 (235m)

EURJPY: 123.50 (EUR 351m) 124.00-124.10 (EUR 533m)

• Would be wise to bring in a much wider parliamentary opinion when agreeing Brexit terms

• Have to take care with the Northern Ireland peace deal

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Within final demand in May, a 0.3-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.5-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services fell 0.1 percent in May, the first decline since a similar 0.1-percent decrease in May 2016. For the 12 months ended May 2017, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.1 percent.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1230 1.1250 1.1270 1.1285 1.1300

Bids: 1.1200 1.1180 1.1165 1.1150 1.1120 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2700 1.2730 1.2760 1.2780 1.2800 1.2830 1.2850

Bids: 1.2650 1.2630 1.2600-10 1.2580 1.2550 1.2530 1.2500

EUR/JPY

Offers: 123.80 124.00 124.50 124.80 125.00

Bids: 123.30 123.00 122.80 122.50 122.30 122.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8850-55 0.8885 0.8900 0.8930 0.8950

Bids: 0.8820 0.8800 0.8780 0.8750 0.8700

USD/JPY

Offers: 110.30 110.50 110.80 111.00 111.30 111.50 111.80 112.00

Bids: 110.00 109.80-85 109.65 109.50 109.35 109.20 109.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7565 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7650

Bids: 0.7520 0.7500-05 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450

• The ECB has a difficult task, I have never criticised the ECB

• Debate about Draghi succession is not only harmful but also superfluous

• The ECB has to implement a monetary policy that suits the needs of all euro zone members

• The Federal Reserve has already begun this process and the ECB has weighed some communication that could seen that points into that direction

• 3.1 pct economic growth in 2017

• Cpi to be 2 pct in 2017, 1.3 pct in 2018, 1.6 pct in 2019

• Expects public deficit in 2017 to be 3.2 pct of gdp

• Unemployment rate to fall to around 13 pct at end-2019

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped by 2.0 points in June 2017 and now stands at 18.6 points. The indicator thus still remains below the long-term average of 23.9 points. By contrast, the assessment of the current economic situation in Germany improved once again in June. The indicator climbed by 4.1 points to 88.0 points. This is the highest level since July 2011. Despite a slight drop in expectations, the prospects for the economic growth in Germany in the coming six months remain rather positive.

"The prospects for the German economy remain favourable. This is not least due to the positive GDP growth in the European Union in the first quarter of 2017. 70.8 per cent of the financial market experts expect the current situation to remain as favourable as it is at the moment, and 23.9 per cent even expect it to improve in the coming six months," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

UK House prices grew by 5.6% in the year to April 2017, 1.1 percentage points higher than in the year to March 2017. In terms of housing demand, the Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) residential market survey for April 2017 reported that price expectations are moderately positive while new buyer enquiries remain low. The UK Property Transaction statistics showed that in April 2017 the total number of seasonally adjusted property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above increased by 20.3% compared to April 2016

The rate of increase in factory gate prices appears to be stabilising now that manufacturing input costs have largely fallen month-on-month since January.

The annual rate of factory gate price inflation (output prices) remained at 3.6% for the third consecutive month and slowed on the month to 0.1%, from 0.4% in March and April.

The annual rate of inflation for materials and fuels (input prices) fell back to 11.6% in May, continuing its decline from 19.9% in January 2017 following the recent strength of sterling.

Recent price declines for coke and refined petroleum products leaving the factory gate have been offset by rising prices for food products and computers, electrical and optical equipment.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.7% in May 2017, up from 2.6% in April.

The rate has been steadily increasing following a period of relatively low inflation in 2015 and is at its highest since April 2012.

Rising prices for recreational and cultural goods and services (particularly games, toys and hobbies) was the main contributor to the increase in the rate.

There were smaller upward contributions from increased electricity and food prices.

These upward contributions were partially offset by falls in motor fuel prices, and air and sea fares, the latter two influenced by the timing of Easter in April this year.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.9% in May 2017, up from 2.7% in April.

EURUSD: 1.1040-50 (EUR 702m) 1.1100 1.1bln) 1.1300 (1.2bln)

USDJPY: 109.75 (USD 740m) 110.00 (1.3bln) 110.20-30 (361m) 110.60-70 (446m)

GBPUSD: 1.2500 (GBP 474m) 1.2640-50 (262m) 12660-70 (372m) 1.2700 (GBP 743m) 1.2760 (455m)

EURGBP: 0.8655-60 (EUR 570m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 310m) 0.7470 (328m) 0.7500 (270m) 0.7530 (235m)

EURJPY 123.50 (EUR 351m) 124.00-124.10 (EUR 533m)

In Q1 2017, payroll employment increased robustly again. They reached 89,700 jobs, that is 0.4%, after +0.3 % in the previous quarter. The payroll employment increased by 80,300 in the private sector and by 9.500 in the public sector. Year on year, it rose by 284,100 net jobs (that is +1.2%). 255,400 jobs were created in the private sector and 28,700 jobs in the public service.

In Q1 2017, employment continued to decrease in industry : −5,200 jobs (that is −0.2%), after −3,800 jobs in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, industry lost 19,700 jobs (that is −0.6%).

While it had dropped almost continuously since 2008, employment in construction increased by 9,300 in Q1 2017 (that is +0.7%), after -2,800 in Q4 2016. Year on year, employment in construction rose slightly (+1,700 jobs, that is +0.1%).

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 3.1% in May 2017 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In April 2017 and in March 2017 the annual rates of change were +4.7%, each.

From April 2017 to May 2017 the index fell by 0.7%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1305 (5385)

$1.1265 (4192)

$1.1240 (5428)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1186

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1146 (3165)

$1.1098 (3138)

$1.1040 (1927)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 81815 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5894);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 108710 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5437);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 12

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3005 (3802)

$1.2911 (2807)

$1.2819 (1949)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2671

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2598 (1821)

$1.2499 (2489)

$1.2399 (1445)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 39107 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3802);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 51879 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (7028);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.