Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 12-06-2018.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, as they were in April. The gasolin index increased 1.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in some of the other energy component indexes and led to a 0.9-percent rise in the energy index. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged over the month.

The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending May, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 1.2 percent, and the energy index rose 11.7 percent.

• Lifts 2018 Non-OPEC Oil Supply Forecast, Citing US Production

• 2018 Non-OPEC Oil Supply Forecast By 130,000 B/D

• Keeps Oil Demand Forecasts Largely Unchanged

• OECD Commercial Oil Inventories 26M Barrels Below Last 5-Year Avg in April

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decrease of 7.9 points in June 2018 and now stands at minus 16.1 points. This is the lowest reading since September 2012 and well below the long-term average of 23.3 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany decreased by 6.8 points, leaving the corresponding indicator at 80.6 points.

"The recent escalation in the trade dispute with the United States as well as fears over the new Italian government pursuing a policy which potentially destabilises the financial markets have left their mark on the economic outlook for Germany. On top of this, German industry has been reporting worse than expected figures for exports, production and incoming orders for April. As a result, the economic outlook for the next six months has worsened considerably," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.8% excluding bonuses, and by 2.5% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between November 2017 to January 2018 and February to April 2018, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people decreased and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also decreased.

There were 32.39 million people in work, 146,000 more than for November 2017 to January 2018 and 440,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

Moody's has raised its outlook for Spain's banking system to positive from stable, as robust economic growth and disposals of troubled assets help banks bolster their asset quality. In the rating agency's view, other fundamental factors such as capital, funding and liquidity levels and profitability will remain stable.

"The stock of non-performing loans at Spanish banks will continue to decline on the back of a growing economy," said Alberto Postigo, a Vice President and Senior Credit Officer, at Moody's. "Asset quality will be further improved by the large sales of troubled assets on which several Spanish banks are embarking."

Romania's foreign trade deficit decreased slightly in April from a year ago, figures from the National Institute of Statistics showed Monday.

The trade deficit dropped to EUR 1.01 billion in April from EUR 1.05 billion in the corresponding month last year. The shortfall also fell from EUR 01.06 billion in March.

Both exports and imports advanced by 9.7 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively in April from last year, says rttnews.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1941 (1407)

$1.1913 (943)

$1.1875 (81)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1765

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1700 (3070)

$1.1663 (2405)

$1.1622 (1562)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 87906 contracts (according to data from June, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5703);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3534 (843)

$1.3498 (330)

$1.3460 (125)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3349

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3307 (1975)

$1.3277 (2031)

$1.3243 (1290)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 20673 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (2253);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 22156 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (2233);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 11.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

White House Economic Adviser Lawrence Kudlow Suffers Heart Attack.

Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, suffered a heart attack and was hospitalized at Walter Reed Medical Center, Mr. Trump tweeted.

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

Conditions eased in most industries in May, with the exception of transport & utilities and retail but overall conditions remain at or above average levels. In trend terms, conditions remain strongest in mining.

According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist "Despite the easing in the business conditions index in May, conditions remain robust in the business sector. Conditions remain well above average across most states and industries."

Producer prices in Japan climbed 0.6 percent on month in May, according to rttnews.

That topped expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent, which would have been unchanged from April following an upward revision from 0.1 percent.

On a yearly basis, producer prices jumped 2.7 percent - also exceeding expectations for 2.1 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous month following an upward revision from 2.0 percent.

Export prices were up 1.1 percent on month and 2.4 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices jumped 2.7 percent on month and 6.5 percent on year.

Almost stable in the public sector, payroll employment increased by 47,700 in the private sector. Year on year, it rose by 288,200 net jobs (+1.2%): 301,200 jobs were created in the private sector and 13,000 jobs were destroyed in the public service.

Payroll employment stabilized in industry in Q1 2018 (that is 0.0%, after +0.2%), showing nonetheless a year on year increase (+5,600).

The growth of payroll employment in construction continued, but at a slower pace than in the previous quarter : +3,600 (that is +0.3%), after +12,100 in the previous quarter (that is +0.9%). Year on year, the increase reached +25,600 jobs (that is +1.9%).